835PM CDT Update: The storm is slowly gaining some more organization this evening, and the track has been updated to jog the storm to the west a bit. The model consensus is almost a direct hit on Mobile now, but it's over 5 days out, it'll change, things are uncertain, all that disclaimer jazz.
On the personal side, I now have plans to get out of Mobile if it gets too dicey. I'll be fine. Thanks for all the offers of help, you guys. For a bunch of evil commie pinko libruls, you sure are nice. ;P
Original diary starts below the gray bar of doom.
I don't have much time to give an in-depth update, so I'll give you the skinny on what's going on right now...
Tropical Storm Isaac continues to churn in the Caribbean Sea south of Puerto Rico this afternoon, packing 40 MPH winds and some pretty heavy rain for the islands. Conditions remain favorable for Isaac to rapidly strengthen if it's able to get its internal structure in order before it starts moving over the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola (the island that holds Haiti and the Dominican Republic). Hurricane warnings are in effect in anticipation of this potential rapid strengthening.
The current NHC forecast track has Isaac surviving the higher terrain of Hispaniola, traversing Cuba, then reemerging in the sauna that's known as the Gulf of Mexico.
The models are starting to come to a consensus that the storm will mostly miss Florida and impact the central Gulf Coast around Mobile, AL as a major hurricane by this time next week.
I'm in Mobile, AL.
What's especially concerning is that the ECMWF model, the European model that is considered "the best in the world," has been consistent for quite a few days that Mobile will take the brunt of it. All the other models have slowly joined the ECMWF in agreement that someone between New Orleans and Apalachicola FL will get it.
Here's the 18z (about 100 PM Central Time) run of the various hurricane models, charted on a "spaghetti plot."
And here's the 12z ECMWF giving me hell in Mobile:
Now for the personal part...
So, for once, I could very well be in the middle of a major weather story that I'm blogging about. As a weather geek I'm a little excited, but growing a little more nervous as each run of the models comes in. After seeing disaster after disaster on the news, the rush of being in a storm doesn't appeal to me anymore knowing full well what happens after the storm.
My university has emergency plans that they'll implement just in case the worst happens and we do take a direct hit, as the models are now predicting. I have no way to ditch Mobile if it hits, so I have to stay here at my university and ride it out in the evacuation shelters they open.
Under the assumption that the storm does hit me, I'll continue to post as much as possible. I'm personal friends with lots of Kossacks offsite, so there won't be any problem in relaying status reports to you guys if it comes to that.
If you live between New Orleans and Miami, continue watching this like a hawk. I'll post another update tomorrow afternoon.
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