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8:36 AM PT: FL-18: Over the weekend, we (the Daily Kos Elections staff) were debating amongst ourselves whether Allen West's new TV spot attacking Patrick Murphy over a teenage arrest for drunkenness was a desperation move or a coffin-nailer. After all, West had just released a poll showing him up 11 points on his Democratic opponent. But that internal had some issues (namely, a huge Romney lead in a district where he shouldn't have one), and that ad isn't typically the kind you put out if you have a double-digit lead in the polls.
Well, now we have a clearer picture of the race thanks to two new surveys, and West's move looks a lot more like it came from weakness rather than strength. First up is a poll from the Murphy-supporting House Majority PAC, courtesy of Garin-Hart-Yang, that features Murphy legging out to a 52-43 lead over West. Obama's beating Romney as well, 52-45, which is a notably wider edge than his three-point win in 2008, but makes sense in the context of the president's recent surge in the state of Florida.
Perhaps more remarkable is a poll from Kimball Political Consulting, which is a Republican firm that mostly works on Massachusetts races. They also see Murphy in front, albeit by a smaller 49-45 edge, though their presidential toplines match GHY's exactly (52-45). One odd thing about this survey, though—which includes full crosstabs, unlike HMP's—is that young voters strongly favor both Romney and West. That seems unlikely, to say the least. But no matter what, these new sets of numbers are very good news for Murphy.
8:58 AM PT: FL-26: Oddly enough, here's another Republican poll out of South Florida showing... the Republican getting whooped. The Miami Herald got its hands on a survey from GOP pollster McLaughlin & Associates and says that Democrat Joe Garcia is beating Rep. David Rivera by 10 points. Oddly, the writeup doesn't give the proper toplines, but it notes that there's a (high) 19% undecided and that independent candidate Jose Peixoto is taking 5%, which would mean that Garcia is up about 44-33—a figure confirmed by The Hill. McLaughlin also confirms the big Obama leads we've been seeing in other polling, with the POTUS on top 51-43.
9:00 AM PT: P.S. McLaughlin wouldn't say who commissioned the poll, but the NRCC wouldn't be a bad guess, since they use his firm a fair bit. However, I haven't yet found any public filings which show recent payments to McLaughlin specifically for an FL-26 poll.
9:13 AM PT: MA-Sen: Two new polls have popped up in the Massachusetts Senate race, both giving Democrat Elizabeth Warren the lead. In UNH's survey for the Boston Globe, Warren edges GOP Sen. Scott Brown 43-38, as opposed to a 39-37 Brown advantage back in May, the last time UNH went into the field here. The other survey is from MassINC on behalf of WBUR, but be wary of the station's own writeup. They're calling it a 46-44 lead for Warren, but that ignores leaners—something every analyst will tell you is a mistake. Including leaners (PDF) puts Warren up 49-45, little different from her 47-42 lead a couple of weeks ago—but, importantly, even closer to the 50% mark.
9:25 AM PT: Ah. The Herald has updated their story to include the exact toplines and sample size information for that FL-26 poll.
9:36 AM PT: IL-13: A new poll for Democrat David Gill seems to confirm the tossup-ish nature of the race: Victoria Research gives him a 40-39 edge over Republican Rodney Davis, with independent John Hartman taking a very high 8 percent. Unfortunately, there are no presidential toplines, but the memo notes that Gill's already been subject to over $1 million worth of attack ads. In fact, it's already more like $1.2 mil, with the Chamber of Commerce, the NRCC, and the American Action Network all throwing down. The DCCC (the only Dem group really involved here) has spent just half that sum going after Davis.
10:12 AM PT: WI-07: The House polls are coming hot and heavy now, and here's one more: Democrat Pat Kreitlow's new internal from FM3 has him close behind GOP Rep. Sean Duffy, with Duffy leading 44-41. That's very similar to the four-point margin PPP found on behalf of CREDO last week, though FM3 obviously thinks there are still more undecided voters, which probably augurs in Kreitlow's favor. The memo doesn't mention the presidential toplines, but the Kreitlow campaign graciously provided them to me: Obama's up 52-41 over Romney, not too far off his eight-point margin in 2008. If those numbers hold up, then Duffy will be facing some serious headwinds in his attempt to claw his way to 50%+1.
11:00 AM PT: Radio: Last week, I went on SiriusXM's POTUS station to discussion Senate races with hosts Lee Brennder and Slade Sohmer on their show "Politics Powered By Twitter." You can listen to a clip at the link.
11:03 AM PT: PA-12: Big Dog Alert! Bill Clinton is coming to Beaver, PA to headline a rally for Dem Rep. Mark Critz on Thursday. (No word if a fundraiser is also involved.) Clinton's long been a booster of Critz's, and endorsed him in his primary against fellow Rep. Jason Altmire earlier this year. (And if you want to amuse yourself, click through to read the reaction to this news from the campaign of Republican Keith Rothfus.)
11:10 AM PT: WI-Sen: Looks like Tommy Thompson could use some more rest. Amazingly enough, it's the National Review which decided to give Tommy room to hang himself with several unflattering quotes, including these gems:
"I was exhausted," Thompson says of the post-primary period. "I used to box in school, and there's an old adage that when you get so tired that you can't hold your arms up, you just drop them, and you hope that the other guy gets tired and stops hitting you." [...]
"We should end the quarter with north of a million dollars, plus having paid for our TV through the 1st of October," Thompson says. "It's not nearly enough, but I'm out there raising money every day."
For weeks, Thompson says, his money woes were real. "In order to get to the finish line on the primary, I had to borrow $600,000," he says. "The campaign doesn't want me to say that, but I did." By late August, "We were hurt, but we won."
Thanks for dropping your arms, Tommy!
11:17 AM PT: OH-Sen: I've never been a fan of the Columbus Dispatch's mail-in polls—the fact that they're just about the only news organization to conduct surveys this way ought to say something. And while it would be easy, if you're a Democrat, to like their new Senate toplines, the trendlines should make you wary. Just over a month ago, the Dispatch improbably had Sen. Sherrod Brown improbably tied with Republican Josh Mandel at 44 apiece. Now, Brown leads 49-39. That latest spread is in line with some other recent polls (from Quinnipiac and the Washington Post), but the earlier numbers were really out-of-whack. (And for what it's worth, Obama leads Romney 51-42 in the same poll.)
11:30 AM PT: FL-18: What the holy hell? This is one of those "you must click through" things—if you dare.
11:38 AM PT: NC-08: Looks like the NRCC has its own chain-gang of polling robots whirring away in the cellar, too. In an attempt to reinforce the message that Democrats are abandoning the 8th District, they conducted a one-day IVR poll last week, showing Republican Richard Hudson beating Dem Rep. Larry Kissell 50-41. Romney also beats Obama 59-38, which is about six points wider than John McCain's 57-42 win here in 2008. It sounds like the NRCC committed a bit of a no-no, though, because it appears they weighted by party ID (they say the "survey was weighted to a 2008-2010 hybrid turnout model"). Some pollsters do this, but you really shouldn't, since party preference is a very fluid thing.
12:15 PM PT: The Live Digest continues in the afternoon thread.