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Race Ratings:

We're making four changes to our race ratings this week, including two big moves on our Senate chart and two more on our House chart. All four favor the Democrats.

MA-Sen (Tossup to Lean D): I'm betting that Scott Brown is seriously regretting his agreement with Elizabeth Warren to bar most third-party spending on the race, because you know he's thinking that a $5 million blitz by Karl Rove sure would be tasty right about now. That's because the polling's simply been awful for the Republican senator since Labor Day, ever since the contest took a negative turn. If Brown could have stayed positive and had someone else do his dirty work, he might still be in this thing. But he's sullied his image, and Massachusetts' traditional blue instincts have reasserted themselves enough to power Warren to a distinct advantage.

MO-Sen (Tossup to Lean D): We were among the biggest naysayers when Todd Akin's epic implosion rocked the Missouri Senate race—surely, we figured, once Akin successfully called the GOP establishment's bluff and refused to drop out, Crossroads and the NRSC would be right back in the game, and conservative hostility toward Dem Sen. Claire McCaskill would overpower any lingering disgust toward Akin. But even after they could no longer replace Akin on the ballot, Republicans stayed out, McCaskill woke her attack machine out of temporary stasis, and the contest has, remarkably, veered back into the blue column. Why the GOP didn't spend some of the millions they're wasting on Josh Mandel on Todd Akin instead, I'm not sure I can answer. But the fact is that they haven't, and Claire McCaskill may just be the luckiest senator in living memory.

CA-36 (Lean R to Tossup): I admit it: I was very spooked by the revelations that Democrat Raul Ruiz had once read a letter in support of activist Leonard Peltier, who was convicted of murdering two FBI agents in 1975. But despite some ugly headlines, I guess Peltier has about as much resonance these days as Sacco and Vanzetti (if you have to Google that, well, I've just made my point). What's more, GOP Rep. Mary Bono Mack's attacks on Ruiz have inspired local Indian tribes (who almost never get involved in politics) to openly chastise her. Indeed, Bono Mack's relationships with minority communities in her district seem to be a real problem for her, especially Latinos, whom she promised to reach out to... after the election. That's a pretty serious issue, seeing as Hispanics make up 27% of the voting population of the redrawn 36th, about a quarter of which is brand-new to MBM. She's also never faced a serious race, and her rust has put this one into serious play for Team Blue.

GA-12 (Lean R to Tossup): After the Republicans in control of redistricting screwed Rep. John Barrow something fierce, it was hard to imagine him hanging on: After all, his district see-sawed incredibly, going from 54-45 Obama to 56-44 McCain, one of the biggest swings in the country. But Barrow'd always been good (perhaps a little too good) at cultivating a very conservative profile—and he's canny enough for me to believe that he knew this day was coming. A recent Democratic internal had him up 48-45 over Republican Lee Anderson, and Anderson never responded. (A dusty Anderson internal from August only had him up 1, anyway.) While Dem third-party groups have been outspent $2.6 mil to $2 mil, Barrow's crushed Anderson in fundraising, $2.7 mil to just $800K, and Anderson had to spend most of his haul on winning the GOP nomination.

12:25 PM PT (David Jarman): KY-06, NC-07, PA-12: There are new GOP internals of three races with Dem incumbents, races where, despite the solid-red districts, the Dems have seemed to have a slight upper hand. Now ordinarily we recommend taking GOP internal polling with a grain of salt, but here we aren't talking about a POS or Tarrance or one of the other establishment types who often acquit themselves well... these are polls for Dick Morris's Citizens United organization, by Wenzel Strategies, a pollster who stunk up the joint in 2010 and who continue to put up weird numbers elsewhere (for instance, they're the only pollster who continues to find Todd Akin not just coming closer than high-single-digits but actually leading in MO-Sen). For the sake of completeness, though, they've got Andy Barr leading Ben Chandler 45-41 in KY-06, David Rouzer leading Mike McIntyre 45-39 in NC-07, and Keith Rothfus leading Mark Critz 44-39 in PA-12.

12:51 PM PT: Fundraising: Pre-general reports detailing all fundraising from Oct. 1-17 were due at the FEC on Thursday night, and once again, we've compiled them all in one place, for all 94 House races we've given a competitive rating to. Click through to see how much everyone's been raising and spending, and who has more cash-on-hand for the final days of the campaign.

1:51 PM PT: NM-Sen (PPP for enviro groups): Martin Heinrich (D): 52 (51), Heather Wilson (R): 44 (51); Obama 53-44 (52-43).

1:53 PM PT: PA-Sen: I'm not really sure why the NRSC is bothering to come in and help Tom Smith. I don't say that because Dem Sen. Bob Casey is invulernable—quite the contrary, we recently moved the race from Likely D to Lean D. Rather, my point is that Smith is very wealthy and has shown no hesitation to self-fund like mad, spending well into the eight figures. So what is the NRSC's $500K meant to accomplish? The NRSC swears it's not some kind of head-fake, but obviously, that's exactly what they'd say under any set of circumstances.

1:57 PM PT: NV-Sen: Oh no: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was just hospitalized following a car crash in his home state of Nevada on Friday, according to local news reports. KTNV says: "The extent of Reid's injuries were not immediately clear." Needless to say, we hope everyone involved is okay.

2:02 PM PT: Let's hope this is accurate—and that the same is true for everyone else as well:

First report: Harry Reid associates say he's fine after car accident in Nevada; walked his way into emergency room. More TK
@adamnagourney via web

2:04 PM PT: AZ-Sen: Majority PAC and the LCV are going into Arizona big in the final week: They are spending $1.2 million on a new ad attacking GOP Rep. Jeff Flake over his support for uranium mining, which they say would threaten drinking water drawn from the Colorado River.

2:07 PM PT: CT-Sen: It looks like Republican Linda McMahon's self-funding is close to matching the obscene $50 million she shelled out in 2010. New fundraising reports indicate she's spent $42.6 million, almost all of which has come from her own pockets. When you step back and think about what these kinds of sums mean, I suppose it's not really a surprise she was able to make this race as close as she has.

2:14 PM PT: CT-05, IA-04: House Majority PAC just announced two new big buys. One is in CT-05, where they're spending $500K to attack Republican Andrew Roraback as a tax raiser, the first time they've gotten involved in the race. The other is for $170K in IA-04 (a large amount for that district, going after GOP Rep. Steve King, a seat where they've already spent a considerable sum.

2:15 PM PT: MO-Gov: Republican Dave Spence has contributed another $500K to his own campaign against Dem Gov. Jay Nixon, bringing his total outlay to $5 million.

2:21 PM PT: DCCC, NRCC: In pre-general reports covering the period of Oct. 1-17, the DCCC outraised the NRCC $9.5 million to $7.4 mil. However, Republicans have more cash on hand:
$11 mil to versus $10.1 mil.

2:22 PM PT: FL-02: Florida's 2nd continues to surprise, as the DCCC pours on another $250K for the final two weeks. They're attacking GOP Rep. Steve Southerland over an infamous remark he once made, claiming that his his $174,000 salary as a member of Congress is "not so much."

2:30 PM PT (David Jarman): WA-01: Here's an important data point from this race (though you'd already know it if you've seen our pre-general fundraising report wrapup): Suzan DelBene has just self-funded $500K (or more precisely, $250K in self-funding and $250K in self-loan). Although she self-funded several million to get through the primary in this Dem-leaning district, the fact that she's cracking her checkbook open indicates that she doesn't feel the race against GOPer John Koster is fully nailed-down yet.

2:32 PM PT (David Jarman): RI-01: A series of DCCC polls last month seemed to indicate that Dem incumbent David Cicilline had taken control of this once-shaky race against GOPer Brendan Doherty. The NRCC must be seeing something that it likes, though, because it just returned to this race, with a $280K buy. The DCCC countered quickly with its own $310K buy, so they might be seeing it too, or just fighting fire with fire.

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Comment Preferences

  •  MA-Sen: Even Rasmussen himself moved it to Lean D (5+ / 0-)

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:05:20 PM PDT

  •  I don't think yet more campaign spending (0+ / 0-)

    would really matter in Massachusetts.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:07:15 PM PDT

    •  Not a question of more (9+ / 0-)

      A question of who it came from. Brown needed to remain the nice guy, and had Crossroads gone negative on Warren instead of him, he might have been able to.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:15:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe. (6+ / 0-)

        I'm a little skeptical that's really what Brown's problem has been.  The WBUR poll from a few days ago had him with identical favorables to Warren, but trailing by 6 points.  (There's also the LCV PPP poll, which had him with only barely positive job approval, but his favorability was likely better.)

        Remember, we're political junkies with strong opinions that Brown's attacks on Warren made him look like an asshole.  And clearly, his attacks haven't been working, but we don't really know how many voters in MA went "oh, that was an unfair attack, I don't like him anymore".  

        Rather, Warren started to post better numbers right after the DNC, like many other Democratic candidates, and before the first debate she had with Brown.  PPP has her rising monotonically since mid-September, but WBUR has had pretty similar numbers for her since they started after the DNC, except for one pro-Brown outlier.  And even if she rose after the debates, we don't know how much the debates or Brown's attacks caused that.

        It's possible that the "Brown lost his nice guy image" narrative has something to it, but I don't think we should overrate it.  It's also possible that this is Massachusetts, and Democrats got activated by the DNC, and that was more or less that.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:28:25 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  My take? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JBraden, BeloitDem

          Is that Scott Brown was always going to lose as long as Warren was a half-way decent candidate.
          There is no escaping the fact that he was a Republican in MA who won in the biggest fluke. The narrative turned him into a giant killer but there was a whole lot of reasons in 2010 for him to win that would never never have been replicated this year. It was a special election, with a weird turnout, in the worst possible national mood for Democrat, against a mediocre candidate.
          He was ALWAYS going to lose. The fact he is not that great a candidate in the first place was already obvious in 2010 (although his missteps then are well-forgotten because Coakley was worse and winners write the story) but even if he had done a no-fault race, he would still have lost.
          That has been my take for two years and I will continue to say it til the end of times. He was never going to win, no matter how much people wanted to believe it was a toss-up

  •  PPP's Plan (8+ / 0-)

    PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

    Our rough plan is to release final polls in ~20 different states between Friday and Monday next week

    Our polls for this weekend will be Ohio, Florida, and New Hampshire. They'll all come out Sunday

  •  Re: CA-36. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14

    Since I'm often skeptical of purely demographic/trend explanations, let me throw one up here.  Using Cook (uh, and the fact that the Penn computer I'm on is apparently subscribed to them), I can see that CA-36 went 56/44 for Bush, but 49/51 for Obama (two-party vote share).  In other words, it was about R+5 in 2004 but only R+3 in 2008.  That's a significant difference, and I imagine the trend continued.  

    Also relevant to CA-47, which had an even larger swing, going from D+3 to like D+6.  CA-41 (Takano) went from Even to D+7!

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:18:56 PM PDT

    •  That's kinda the mistake MBM is making (4+ / 0-)

      She is running a relatively bad race but more crucially, a race whose thematic nastiness fit the old district, not the current one.
      Since you are skeptical of purely demographic explanations, I offer you here the best compromise possible between the "value of campaigning" and demographic theories of winning elections: she is not helped by the demographic changes in the district that weakened her baseline but the crucial problem is that her strategy applies to the old demographic and political makeup of the district, not the current one.
      So demography is both a direct (district much more fave to Dems) and indirect (inability to adapt campaigning themes) problem for MBM.

      •  I'm also skeptical of purely campaign-based (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, marieperoy

        explanations.  I tend to think:

        1. National mood/events/incumbency.
        2. Nature of the constituency, including demographics and partisanship.
        3. "Big picture" campaign stuff: Is the race being targeted at all?
        4. "Small picture" campaign stuff: What are the ads like?  What are the gaffes?  What's in the news?

        So in this case, I think it's most of those things.  Mack's somewhat less of an incumbent this time.  Her constituency is changing politically and (I assume) demographically.  She's been increasingly targeted lately, and her numbers in 2010 were fairly unimpressive for an incumbent Republican.  Now she's really being targeted.  And then (in my way of looking at things) we get to the day-to-day campaign stuff.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 01:02:10 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Are these those numbers (0+ / 0-)

      For the current district iterations?

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 01:28:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  VA Sen RAss: Kaine 49-48 (8+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:19:11 PM PDT

  •  Updated Senate polling averages and predictions (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, CF of Aus

    I've added all the Senate seats with polling today. Predictions are based on the average error of polling averages in past state elections. For methods see here.

    Be wary of Nebraska - based on one internal poll and two polls from a new pollster, Pharos.

    For Indiana, it looks like I will soon have to invoke the rule that only the last 10 days of polling are used if there is a clear trend in the month of October!

    •  4 D held seats versus 3 R held (0+ / 0-)

      States with clear doubt remaining in my mind - VA, WI, ND, MT versus NV, AZ, IN.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:27:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I know Bob Kerrey has few fans here (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kman23

      and that is arguably understandable but we should be talking more about the unquestionable trend lines of Kerrey polls moving from down 16 to down 10 to down 5 to down 2 and conclude two things. First, Deb Fischer is one huge suck candidate, Second, bob Kerrey is one heck of a campaigner and terrific fit for a Nebraska Democrat. I think this Vietnam War hero is going to pull this rabbit out of the hat and cinch Senate control for the Democratic Majority.

      •  "trend lines" across different firms (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje

        are not only questionable, they don't really exist.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 03:32:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  My faith in pollsters (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, kman23

          has been shaken to the point that I even take trend lines from the same pollster with a grain of salt.  They get such wildly different samples that they might as well be different pollsters sometimes.

          But your point is correct, trendlines from different pollsters are close to meaningless.

  •  does anyone reaally believe that Chandler will (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, BeloitDem, jncca, kman23

    lose, after beating this guy in 2010, and now having a more friendly district?

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:27:26 PM PDT

    •  Not me (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, James Allen, Woody

      Those polls are throwaways.  They don't reflect previous polling of those districts, ad spending in those districts, or the national generic ballot.  They just don't.

      •  polls (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, ArkDem14

        They all look like "informed ballot" tests. For example, they showed Barr's favorables as 55-39 which is about what you might expect for a popular 20-year incumbent, not for a House candidate who couldn't win even with the 2010 wave at his back. They had Rouzer and Rothfus also with overwhelmingly good favs, while the incumbents who have already shown they can win an unfriendly district in a bad year were all roughly neutral. On top of that, there were no presidential toplines and it wouldn't surprise me if they just did a quick and dirty robopoll of landlines to get an R-friendly sample.

        I think Dems win all 3 of these with room to spare.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:41:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Hey, somehow Crossroads decided (5+ / 0-)

      that spending over 1 million dollars in the nation's most expensive media market to target Tim Bishop after all polls public and private showed him with a 15 point or greater lead, was an excellent investment when the Republicans were playing defense in dozens of districts and had several dozen better and less expensive pick up opportunities than this district.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:32:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  He still has a tough district (0+ / 0-)

      and Presidential years are tougher for Democrats than midterms in Kentucky. At the top of the ticket, Conway did better in the district in '10 than Obama did in '08 (47-53 vs. 43-55). I presume he's favored, but I don't think it's any better than lean Dem.

      •  wave survivors (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        This cycle, I've been using a rule of thumb that any Dem who survived 2010 or any Reep who survived 2008 isn't going to lose this year unless they got boned in redistricting. I think Chandler is a perfect example of that, as KY drew an incumbent protection map. I don't agree that this cycle should be harder for Chandler than 2010. He crushed in 2004 and 2008 even while Bush and McCain were romping statewide.

        This year it looks like the only exceptions to that rule will be Tierney (family scandal) and MBM (demographic creep + a somewhat different district).

        BTW Kentucky's election website is awesome, with results by county going back to 1973.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 04:22:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah (0+ / 0-)

          when the GOP announced it was going after Chandler, Rahall, Bishop, Walz, and Michaud, I just smiled and thought "Good luck with that".

          •  I'm slightly worried about Tim Bishop. (0+ / 0-)

            I'm not sure if there's anything to the CORRUPTION OMFG x infinity charges, but the commercials I've seen are pretty effective in making it seem like there is. He did survive in 2010, so I am not that worried, but still...

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 05:29:49 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  MO-Sen (11+ / 0-)

    Like Harry Reid, Clare McCaskill made her luck. She couldn't have counted on the rape comments specifically, but she could count on him saying multiple stupid things between the primary and election day.

  •  RCP thought (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, askew

    Just ignoring their motivations for a moment and say for the sake of argument they are slow to update polls for reasons other than ideology.

    Doesn't say much for their staff does it when people post numbers here straight away whether they be good or bad.

    Anybody else think there should be a DKE poll aggregate launched for the 2013 gubernatorials and 2014 midterms?

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:34:41 PM PDT

    •  Yes! (0+ / 0-)

      I bet it would be featured prominently on some MSNBC shows, too, if not elsewhere. I could see Lawrence O'Donnell, for instance, regularly showing graphics from it, as he does from 538.

    •  Not if it includes unreliable pollsters (0+ / 0-)

      Something that is updated promptly with the new Gravis result is not something for a website to be proud of.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:50:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Open for discussion (0+ / 0-)

        I would suggest clear criteria at the outset with regard to what is included and when data is dropped. Also whether a specific average percentage lead, say less than 5% for a tossup, qualifies as prompting a certain rank.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:55:41 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I balk at that because we have Pollster (0+ / 0-)

      Pollster does a good job.  They have a consistent methodology of including all publicly reported polls, no matter what.  And they offer a fantastic tool that lets anyone visiting their site filter out whatever polls you want, either individually or by shared methodological characteristics, to produce your own average and trendline.

      RCP gets more press because it's been around a long time and thus offers historical comparisons, the visuals are great, the data is mostly complete even if they have unwise rules and patterns about what to exclude, and overall the site is user-friendly.

      But Pollster does methodologically better work in its averages and trendlines.

      I just don't see that DKE can add much to the picture, unless it commits to borrowing the best qualities of both Pollster and RCP, but this becomes a very labor-intensive project.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:56:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Pollster is Huffington Post, right? (0+ / 0-)

        That's run by Simon Jackman, who's a major political scientist (the principal investigator of the American National Election Studies, and he also invented or co-invented an alternative voting analysis system to DW-Nominate).  

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 01:07:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Luck (15+ / 0-)
    But the fact is that they haven't, and Claire McCaskill may just be the luckiest senator in living memory.
    Chris Coons (Amherst '85) says hi.
    •  Harry Reid says hello as well. :) n/t (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, Zack from the SFV
      •  Harry Reid MADE his luck (5+ / 0-)

        I would say Senator Barack Obama is a strong contender here as well. He had not one but TWO early strong opponents self-destruct and THEN he lucked out again by getting Alan Keyes of all people instead of a halfway decent replacement that would have tied him down in IL.

      •  That was skill, not luck. (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, marieperoy, Adam B, KingofSpades, askew

        (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:50:23 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Reid (9+ / 0-)

        Reid made his own luck by discrediting Lowden and then by fusing the mother of all negative campaigns with the mother of all turnout operations. Coons deserves credit for stepping up when everyone else was scared off, but he fell ass-backwards into a favorable situation.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:56:36 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He was a very credible candidate (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JBraden, James Allen, redrelic17

          and a good politician. He ran a good campaign. People forget that polls right before the primary had Coons narrowing the gap a bit between him and Castle, and several had him down by only low single digits despite a still considerable name recognition gap.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 01:17:17 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  He ran a great race. (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Skaje, ArkDem14, James Allen

            As my friend JJ Balaban, who ran the race, explained,

            Sure, his odds of winning soared when O’Donnell defeated Castle, but political history is littered with candidates who caught breaks but failed to capitalize on them. Scott McAdams, the Democrat running for U.S. Senate in Alaska in 2010, was thought to have caught a lucky break when incumbent Lisa Murkowski lost the Republican primary; he still ended up in third place. Philadelphia Republican Sam Katz seemed to have caught his break in 2003 when it was revealed that the FBI had planted a bug in the office of his opponent, Democratic Mayor John Street, as part of a corruption investigation; he ended up losing by a broader margin than he had four years earlier.

            Chris, by contrast, made his own luck by working like a dog for eight months before the primary, impressing people in Delaware and Washington with his knowledge of the issues and his ability to connect with voters. That groundwork allowed him to move into and maintain the role of frontrunner once O’Donnell toppled Castle. A weaker Democratic candidate might well have inspired the national Republican Party to pour significant resources into the state.

            •  I mean yeah, Coons still crushed (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen

              O'Donnell and ran an effective, negative campaign against which Mike Castle had failed to do himself. A weaker candidate would not have been guaranteed such a lofty margin in a 2010 environment.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 02:46:24 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  It's not luck (0+ / 0-)

      It's stupidity by the GOP.  Over the past few elections they have quite a few Senate races where they either nominate someone unelectable (O'Donnell, Angle, etc.) over a more electable candidate or elect someone they think will be a good candidate (Thompson, Akin, etc.) who ends up self-immolating.

  •  Re: Illinois House Polls (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, Skaje, sawolf, JBraden

    I don't believe them.

    To be more precise, I think they are way off. Overall polling and conventional wisdom are pretty clear on Illinois: there's a small drop off from 2008 for Obama, but nothing drastic, 2-4 points, right around the national median for his decline. These continual Congressional polls are doing something wrong in their sampling or voter models to continuously get results showing enormous 10 point declines for Obama across the state (not that there has been much good, non WAA polling the state). The effect is, I think, that Duckworth is up around 14-16 points right now, around where her Anazalone Liszt poll showed (AL is perhaps the best Democratic pollster). Biggert is down 3-6, Schilling is down 4-8. Davis is down 2-3. Dold is down 2-4. And Plummer is down 4-6. This is the only impression I can take out of the state, giving the state's fundamentals and a limited but consistent polling data there and nationally.

    That's why I think Larry Sabato looks like a complete fool moving a historically Democratic district with a very high D baseline vote like IL-12, into the Leans Republican category! And he's doing based on these hilarious Republican internals showing Obama underperforming John Kerry by 4+ points in the district!

    Sure Republicans have been very loud, (overly so given candidate quality and district fundamentals), about this district. It's open. Not exceptionally Democratic. A big mix of rural and urban territory. Lots of white blue collar Catholics. But that's the extent of it. Democrats are spending because they are being pressed and it is an open seat, but they have a clear and automatic lead to begin with in this district, and General Bill Enyart has run by all appearances an excellent campaign despite his late start.

    I mean, does any one else recall the WAA poll that Enyart down 11 right after he got in the race? They polled throughout an entire area code, and thus got about half of Shimkus's heavily Republican district as part of their sample for the IL-12 race! And this is the kind of material Sabato is basing that impression on. It's the kind of laziness and shoddy empiricism you can pretty much expect from Sabato these days. Crystal Ball used to be a priceless resource, with interactive maps, regularly updated websites, extensive write-ups and updates of all the major races and good sound judgments of conventional wisdom. These days, Sabato and his site are just shells of their former selves. CB is just a collection of mostly lame essays. Sabato seems to put no effort into the prognostication these days, and so there isn't as much judgment, no significant write ups, etc. It's really unfortunate.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:45:34 PM PDT

    •  Yeah (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, JBraden

      I'll eat my hat and probably other garments if Obama actually hits Kerry numbers in Illinois.  To look at it the other way, we're talking about Romney hitting Bush numbers.  It's ridiculous.

    •  Could not agree more with your every word (0+ / 0-)

      IL will be a pickup of six seats for team blue.  I hope Crystal Ball is some publication and not the lovely MSNBC Show Host and Commentator.

    •  It's a little weird (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf

      How he puts IL-12 as Lean R, but IL-13 as Lean D. I think we'll win both, but if anything I think those calls would be reversed.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 01:04:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  CNN OH poll in ten minutes (0+ / 0-)

    Dont TIME and CNN use the same pollster?

  •  WI-Pres (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, DCCyclone

    The progressive blog Badger Democracy apparently e-mailed Milwaukee County District Attorney John Chisholm to inquire about Rite-Hite CEO Mike White intimidating his employees into voting for Mitt Romney in apparent violation of Wisconsin state law. Well, Chisholm has forwarded the matter to his assistant, Bruce Landergraf.

    Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:51:30 PM PDT

  •  Ground Game Differences Between Obama and Romney (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14

    Based off of this Kevin Drum post, which was based off of this Seth Masket post, I have to wonder who has the advantage here. A few things, in no particular order--and please, if I am incorrect/not remembering something, please let me know:

    1. I don't think there's any question that Obama has invested more than Romney has in his ground game. It's not just in offices, but in events designed to either register voters (the deadlines for which have passed, in a lot of states), phone bank, knock on doors, and so on. I've done a few posts here comparing the efforts of each side in different states, and it seems amazing how little Romney's side is doing. Even in tangential states, like Missouri, there's stuff happening for Obama but not for Romney, if their sites are any indication. I get that there might be legal restrictions on who can say or advertise what, and maybe much of this stuff is handled through private means, but still, there's got to be some way to get word out about doing this or that.

    2. To the extent that it's an issue of getting word out about what's going on, which might not be true, I can only ask, WTF? It seems to be the height of incompetence not to figure out a way to get as many people as possible to do anything for your campaign. Is this is a sign that the leadership of OFA is just heads and shoulders above Romney's side?

    3. I believe it was James Allen who said that Republicans rely on paid workers, whereas Democrats rely on volunteers, but Drum says the opposite is true. Is this a matter of the campaigns themselves, as opposed to truly independent efforts?

    4. Even if you assume that the totality of efforts from each side is roughly equal as sheer volume goes, is there any indication both sides have the same level of competence? I'd say no, but that's mostly from inferring that the complaints seen in the media--the Republican operative from Ohio earlier this week, for instance--are spot on.

    5. If outside groups are powerful, why didn't they help McCain in 2008? I get that it's hard to motivate people when they aren't in love with the candidate and that even if they are activated, it might not make a difference as far as winning states go. Or maybe McCain's team was just not very good.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:52:45 PM PDT

    •  I think those guys not fully thoughtful... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, LordMike, JBraden

      ...about what's happened.  Kevin Drum is usually great, but he's missing a simple explantion in this case.

      It's simply that Romney just got off to a very late start, while Obama as the incumbent was organizing in spring/summer 2011.

      Field organization is very labor-and-time-intensive.  You just need a lot of people and a lot of time to reach all the voters, because, after all, you're trying to reach them literally one-at-a-time, and there are several tens of millions of them in just the battleground states alone.  Money is not enough, you need lots of warm bodies and lots of time.

      Romney didn't have the time or labor available.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 01:05:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think all of that is true, DCC, but (0+ / 0-)

        I don't think it's all that different than what any challenger has to go up against. You're right that OFA has been very early and very vigorous, probably more than most campaigns have been, but at the same time, couldn't the RNC have tried to pick up the slack and/or prepare a list of offices or something so that Romney could get going as soon as possible?

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 01:19:22 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The RNC, too, had no money, and... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin

          ...you can't get your people motivated without a presumed nominee in place, which is what their side's voters were waiting for.

          The RNC was still replenishing its own coffers as Romney was sewing up his nomination, and since the RNC is a permanent organization with permanent overhead, they have to budget differently from a candidate's campaign.

          No, a challenger has no vehicle for evening the playing field quite completely.  John Kerry came as close as one can get, having support groups pick up so much of the slack, but the Bush campaign was still better.  The only way a challenger can be on level terms is if one emerges who early on, even before Iowa, clears the field, but that just never happens.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 01:23:58 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Your last paragraph (0+ / 0-)

            makes me think it's not entirely a matter of timing as it is a matter of Romney having his act together in any number of ways. I mean, it was clear he was going to be the nominee back in May, no? There's no reason why there couldn't have been a much more comprehensive plan put in place at least by his campaign. Perhaps, for a few reasons, he could never have fully met OFA's efforts, but it looks like he didn't have to be outclassed by OFA, whether or not you include outside groups. In other words, it never had to be this bad for him, assuming it's as bad as I suspect it is.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 01:28:33 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Romney ran out of Primary money before the (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone

              convention. He couldn't tap the general money until he got the nomination. That is one reason it is hard to topple a sitting President and that is why primary challenges to a sitting President is harmful to his/her chances.

              •  Yup, that's what bj forgets...... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                itskevin

                You need money for field.  He didn't have enough.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 04:10:53 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Okay, fine, but did Obama have as much money (0+ / 0-)

                  at that point in 2008?

                  "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                  by bjssp on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 05:30:44 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Obama always had more (0+ / 0-)

                    Obama always had more money and a much, much, much larger base of donors.  Repeatedly going back to small donors was something Romney can't do.

                    Obama is a once-in-a-generation phenomenon.  He's a rock star.  He's had over 4 million unique donors this cycle alone.  Romney is just a run-of-the-mill generic Republican.

                    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 07:21:52 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  To emphasize the point... (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      DCCyclone

                      Obama was consistently either on par with or exceeding Hillary Clinton in fundraising at that time. Hillary Clinton had the fundraising network of a former president on her side (and, to be fair, was a very strong fundraiser in her own right).

                      Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                      by NMLib on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 07:47:29 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

  •  Anyone else notice/think (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden

    MSNBC contributor Touré Neblett looks like a black Andy Samberg? I feel like there's a movie that should be done here...

  •  GA-12 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, James Allen, ChadmanFL

    I don't know if this ad ended up in a live digest, but I love this ad from John Barrow. Especially when he shows the pistol he inherited from his grandfather and said his grandfather used it to help stop a lynching.

    I have to agree with David's analysis that John Barrow could see that the GOP would try to gerrymander him out of existence so he had to cultivated a very conservative profile even though he sat in a district Obama won easily in 2008.

    Mitt Romney: Lacking judgement

    by ehstronghold on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:53:48 PM PDT

    •  I had no idea his accent was so thick. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      Also, inherited firearms runs in my mother's family too it seems.  My grandmother was left (when she was old enough) her father's hunting rifle that he had bought custom made for himself back in the 20's.  One of my uncles has that rifle somewhere now, I think.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 01:01:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  His earmark ad easily ranks among (0+ / 0-)

        the most offensive and asinine ads I have seen all cycle, and yes, this includes Republican ads.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 01:21:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Why is John Barrow (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, ChadmanFL

      stealing commercial ideas from Nancy Pelosi? I mean, this is after Lincoln David used her old saying that nobody will "outgun me, outpray me or outfamily me."

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 01:13:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  So who exactly is trying to "take his guns away"? (5+ / 0-)

      Oh well, I guess in a district like he's been handed you pretty much have to resort to saying stuff like this.

  •  Wenzel is also WorldNutDaily's pollster (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Skaje, LordMike, jncca

    Another reason to take it with a grain of salt.

    Romney-Ryan: America's Rollback Team

    by Christian Dem in NC on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:57:06 PM PDT

  •  I think it is conceivable (5+ / 0-)

    that we sweep the competitive house races in California, Illinois, New Hampshire, Arizona, Iowa, and Ohio, hold Barrow, Matheson, hold Hochul, pick up at least 3 in Florida, hold OK-02, pick up 2 in NY, and 2 in MI, and 2 in Colorado.  Oh, and obviously one in MN.  That's leaving out any races in Indiana (actually assuming losing IN-02), Wisconsin, TN-04, and NV-03 where I think we could have surprise wins, but not probable.

    We do that and we're back in business.  

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:58:21 PM PDT

    •  Conceivable (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, ArkDem14

      But unlikely we'd run the table so thoroughly in an environment that lacks the extra oomph of a wave.
      That said, I still believe we will be in the upper side of the 25 seats we would need rather than the single digits Cook and Co still predict.

      •  I think and meant to include in the comment (0+ / 0-)

        that I think we'd need an extra 2-3 points more in the Dem house vote than we seem to be seeing right now in house polls, but I think we're starting to see the presidential numbers where I would think we'd need them to help get there.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 01:03:28 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Cook has been wrong on every wave election (0+ / 0-)

        In 06 Cook called for Dems to gain about 10 seats and called for more of the same in 08. He is likely totally wrong here in 12 as well. I predict a 32 seat Dem gain as I predicted in 06 and 08.

        •  Which 32 seats do you think we'll win? (0+ / 0-)

          I just can't think of that many seats where you can make a good case for Dems being favored, especially since we've got almost guaranteed losses in seats like NC-11 and AR-04.

          Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

          by fearlessfred14 on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 06:45:25 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Your analysis (0+ / 0-)

      is more or less what I am thinking in regards to the House. Not likely, but certainly not impossible.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 04:18:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  OH CNN: Obama 50-46 (17+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 01:02:31 PM PDT

  •  TN-04: Stewart outraises DesJarlais (11+ / 0-)

    http://www.tennessean.com/...
    He also got a donation from Jim Sasser.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 01:04:14 PM PDT

  •  Prez elections: I called my dad today (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, bythesea

    and we talked about our day, the IN-Sen fiasco, and the Prez election.  My dad expressed concern about the national polls, but I rebutted by telling him that Gallup has gone off the cliff and the state polls show Obama with a small advantage in Nevada, CO, and OH.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 01:06:45 PM PDT

  •  Purple Strategies (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, ArkDem14

    Not my favorite pollster, but here it is:

    Ohio: 46-44 O
    Colorado: 47-46 O
    Virginia: 47-47

    http://t.co/...

    A liberal knows that the only certainty in this life is change but believes that the change can be directed toward a constructive end.--Henry Wallace

    by 54cermak on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 01:11:19 PM PDT

    •  Steve McMahon is Alex Castellanos's bitch (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      pardon my French.  It's Castellanos's company.  McMahon just gets paid to get work from Democratic candidates.  The polling work is to further the Republican election narrative.  With that said though the overall polling is stronger today than it was earlier in the election cycle.  

  •  NC, WI Leads: Were these posted? (9+ / 0-)

    Grove Insight for USA Action, Dem Group.

    NC: 47O/44R

    http://usaction.org/...

    WI: 48O/43R

    http://usaction.org/...

  •  By the way, speaking of Simon Jackman (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, jncca

    Here's a fun thing on his academic website: He plotted the "ideal points" based solely on the current House votes against what Obama got in each district, so you can see outliers in both directions.  

    The biggest outlier among Democrats in a liberal direction, btw, and also the current most liberal member of the House under this system, seems to be Bob Filner, probably in part because he's missed so many votes.  John Yarmuth (who really doesn't have that blue a district on paper) stands out a bit farther back.

    The biggest Dem outlier in a conservative direction looks like Jim Costa.  Chris Gibson, Tim Johnson, and Walter Jones are apparently to the left of Bob Dold (although pairwise comparisons can be dangerous here) despite having redder districts.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 01:16:01 PM PDT

    •  538 had something on this (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Xenocrypt, redrelic17

      in 2009.  Most valuable and least valuable Democrats, he called them.  Costa's one of the least valuable, but because of the midterm dropoff I'm not sure how much more liberal a rep. from there could be.

      Henry Cuellar always sucks though.  He's the most-necessary primary based purely on ideology.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 02:38:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Especially since his district (0+ / 0-)

        has trended pretty blue.  And yeah.  I remember Esquire incredulously calling Cuellar a "Club for Growth Democrat".  

        Of Nate's list, I think the most valuable Dems left in the House are something like Chandler, maybe Rahall and Walz.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 02:42:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I would have said Lipinski in IL-03 (0+ / 0-)

        but the Dem gerrymander knocked his seat from 64% Obama to 58%, making it actually less Democratic than any of the seats we're trying to flip.  His old seat was 59% Kerry, so rough estimate is the new one would have been only 53% Kerry.  Still pretty Dem-leaning, but I'd no longer expect a solid progressive from the seat, and Lipinski only screws us on a few things.

        Cuellar really deserves a primary now, considering the Republicans boosted his seat from 56% to 58% Obama.

      •  IIRC (0+ / 0-)

        Gabby Giffords was the most valuable to win reelection in 2010.

  •  holy crap (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tk421, ArkDem14, bythesea, ChadmanFL

    Deschutes County Oregon's ballot returns so far are at 16.9% right now, up from 13.25% yesterday.

    Multnomah County's are at 15.25%, though that's with just an estimate for today's returns but actual returns for the last few, and it looks low compared to the last few days.

    Marion County is at an estimated 15.92%, after being at 12.63% yesterday.

    the holy crap:
    Clackamas County is reporting an astounding 37.3% turnout so far, up from 15.5% yesterday.

    Given my past experiences with the clerk's office, though, I wouldn't be surprised if this were an error.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 01:27:29 PM PDT

  •  Reuters (21+ / 0-)

    Headline on 10/25:

    "Romney takes slim lead as election nears"

    Results: 47R-46O

    Headline on 10/26:

    "Presidential race remains effectively tied"

    Results: 47O-46R

    A liberal knows that the only certainty in this life is change but believes that the change can be directed toward a constructive end.--Henry Wallace

    by 54cermak on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 01:27:52 PM PDT

  •  Also using Cook, here are the biggest swings (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL, LordMike

    in the Democratic direction among those districts whose (newly-calculated) CPVI is between R+4 and D+4.  Sorted by the rounded difference in the margin, but with Dem two-party vote shares in 2004 and 2008 after.  Extended to include CA-36, and with Republican incumbents highlighted:

    CA-46 (Sanchez), 48% Kerry to 60% Obama.
    CA-41 (Takano/Tavaglione), 49% Kerry to 61% Obama.
    TX-34 (Vela/Bradshaw), 49% Kerry to 61% Obama.
    TX-15 (Hinojosa), 46% Kerry to 58% Obama.
    FL-09 (Grayson/Long), 49% Kerry to 61% Obama.
    TX-28 (Cuellar), 47% Kerry to 59% Obama.
    CA-16 (Costa), 48% Kerry to 59% Obama.
    CA-21 (Hernandez/Valadao), 43% Kerry to 53% Obama.
    WI-08 (Ribble), 44% Kerry to 54% Obama.
    CA-31 (Miller), 48% Kerry to 54% Obama.
    CO-06 (Coffman), 46% Kerry to 54% Obama.

    CA-09 (McNerney), 49% Kerry to 58% Obama.
    MI-06 (Upton), 46% Kerry to 54% Obama.
    CA-03 (Garamendi), 48% Kerry to 56% Obama.
    CA-26 (Brownley/Strickland), 49% Kerry to 58% Obama.
    TX-20 (Castro/Rosa), 50% Kerry to 59% Obama.
    MI-08 (Rogers), 45% Kerry to 53% Obama.
    MD-06(Bartlett), 50% Kerry to 57% Obama.

    NV-04 (Horsford/Tarkanian), 50% Kerry to 58% Obama.
    CO-07 (Perlmutter), 51% Kerry to 59% Obama.
    CA-36 (Bono Mack), 44% Kerry to 51% Obama.
    NV-03 (Heck), 47% Kerry to 55% Obama.
    Anything weird in the order is probably rounding.  A whole lot of Texas and California in there, which is unsurprising given the combination of demographic change, Bush's home state effect, and Bush's quasi-contesting of California in 2004.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 01:48:56 PM PDT

    •  Shows how well Bush did with hispanics in 04. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Xenocrypt, jj32, LordMike, jncca
      •  That too. (0+ / 0-)

        I also forgot one because of a typo:

        CA-07 (Lungren), 44% Kerry to 53% Obama.
        Here are the swing seats where Obama had the least-impressive swing from Kerry.  Same idea, but with Democratic incumbents highlighted this time:
        FL-02 (Southerland), 48% Kerry to 47% Obama.
        AZ-01 (Kirkpatric/Paton), 49% Kerry to 48% Obama.
        AZ-02 (Barber), 50% Kerry to 50% Obama.
        NY-04 (McCarthy), 54% Kerry to 54% Obama.
        MN-08 (Cravaack), 53% Kerry to 54% Obama.
        NY-03 (Israel), 54% Kerry to 55% Obama.
        OH-10 (Turner), 48% Kerry to 50% Obama.
        OH-14 (Blanchard/Joyce), 49% Kerry to 50% Obama.
        FL-18 (West), 49% Kerry to 51% Obama.
        NY-01 (Bishop), 50% Bush to 52% Obama.
        AZ-09 (Sinema/Parker), 49% Kerry to 52% Obama.
        ME-02 (Michaud), 52% Kerry to 55% Obama.
        NY-11 (Grimm), 45% Bush to 49% Obama.
        NJ-05 (Garrett), 46% Kerry to 49% Obama.
        MN-02 (Kline), 48% Kerry to 51% Obama.
        NY-02 (King), 49% Kerry to 52% Obama.
        PA-07 (Meehan), 49% Kerry to 53% Obama.
        PA-08 (Fitzpatrick), 51% Kerry to 54% Obama.
        Maybe that's why they're investing in NY-01?  Meanwhile, the AZ seats are probably mostly McCain's home state effect, although AZ-01 and/or AZ-02 might really be trending red.  (I recall that LD-06, covering about a third of AZ-01, had one of Obama's worst swings from Kerry even among the other Arizona LDs.)

        But after maybe Israel or Turner, these aren't nearly as far from the national swing (by two-party vote share, that'd be 49% Kerry to 54% Obama) as the seats I listed above.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 02:09:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  These are districts I will be watching closely (0+ / 0-)

          to see whether Obama falls even further in them (indicating that his 2008 scores were marks of future weakness), or if he holds even despite his national vote total shrinking (indicating that there's simply a very rigid electorate in those districts).

          The Arizona ones can be explained almost entirely by McCain, so the ones I will be focusing on most are on Long Island, the Ohio seats (especially because Obama is projected to match his 2008 numbers statewide), and the Philly suburbs.

    •  If I went to R+5, I could have added (0+ / 0-)

      IL-06 (Roskam), VA-02 (Rigell), CA-10 (Denham), CA-25 (McKeon), TX-23 (Canseco), CA-49 (Issa), NV-02 (Amodei), MI-03 (Amash), and WI-06 (Petri).

      Going up to D+5, I see IL-11 (Biggert), NM-01 (Grisham/Jones), CA-49 (Lowenthal/DeLong), NY-25 (Slaughter) as districts that would have similarly trended blue.  

      (Cook uses D+5 and R+5 as boundaries.)

      I think what we have are basically home state effects, (probably) sharp demographic changes, and changes in intensity of competition.  The latter two, for example, probably explain the Nevada seats, while the first and second probably explain the Texas seats.  The third--intensity of competition--probably accounts for the shifts in the Michigan seats, since McCain famously just gave up on the state.  I'm not sure about NY-25, though.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 02:30:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  WI-08 and WI-06 are interesting (0+ / 0-)

        It's probably partly because of how elastic the Fox Valley is, but it's probably trending blue as well (particularly WI-08), as it's about as close to swingy suburbs as Wisconsin has. WI-06 probably has more to do with Obama's ridiculous overperformance in central Wisconsin.

        Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

        by fearlessfred14 on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 07:00:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Harry Reid involved in car accident... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Minnesota Mike

    ...on the way to the hospital.  No word on injuries.  hopefully, not severe!

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 01:50:23 PM PDT

  •  wow, Obama gets the Chicago Tribune (13+ / 0-)

    endorsement again.

    link.

  •  Monkeycage take on undecideds... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    Don't bother. They're not going to make a difference.

    This is a turnout battle.

    •  There are two types of undecideds (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      Someone who can't decide between candidates.
      Someone who hasn't decided to vote or not.

      The former are likely close to a wash.  
      The latter heavily favor Obama.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 02:23:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Flake Ad (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, DCCyclone

    I don't know how effective politically it will be, but the uranium mining and contamination of water in AZ as a result is a very real issue. As an environmental chemist I have a collab that has worked with a tribe in the northern part of the state (won't say which of the two) and the impacts of the companies who have not properly conducted the mining has been a huge issue. Hopefully LCV can go 2 for 2 after propping up Heinrich so much earlier in the cycle...

    OH-1 (born and raised ), MN-2 (college), CA-53 (grad school), IA-2 (postdoc)

    by aamail6 on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 02:17:25 PM PDT

  •  Obama doing a seven state media blitz (7+ / 0-)

    being interviewed by TV stations in seven swing states, and one is in NC.

    WSOC in Charlotte, NC,

  •  Ohio Democrats to Romney: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 02:44:05 PM PDT

  •  I hope the political media understands (7+ / 0-)

    Hurricane Sandy is a storm that could affect the lives of millions of people, not an October surprise that could affect voting in a few key states. Seems like they are getting a little too excited about it.

  •  Gary DeLong ad on right now (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits

    Just saw it on ESPN on Verizon FIOS, he was talking to the camera spouting a bunch of moderate blahness with a projector running images.
    http://www.youtube.com/...

    On a side note, I just voted today at the LA County Registrar's office. Happy to get it over with.

    29, M, Swingnut, CA-38 resident. Chairman of the DKE Ginger Left-handed caucus. Huge Angels, Lakers, Bruins, Kings, Galaxy fan. Follow me on Twitter: @Artesialove

    by uclabruin18 on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 02:53:09 PM PDT

  •  WI early voting (7+ / 0-)

    Early voting in Wisconsin seems to be moving at the same clip as in 2008.

    Badger Politics Blog: Early voting in Wisconsin off to 'robust start'

  •  Alan Abramowitz calls Gallup poll "screwy" (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MBishop1, KingTag, BeloitDem

    But Frank Newport will have none of it:

    "This is the reason we do research, to get data instead of just speculation."
    i.e., we're great because we're great.   Never mind that they were the worst pollster in 2010.

    http://www.usnews.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 03:02:25 PM PDT

  •  I went ahead and voted early today (9+ / 0-)

    First time I haven't voted election day.  Wasn't too busy, was out in like 10 minutes.  If it makes the lines shorter on election day, it's the least I can do.

  •  Obama up to 74.4% on 538 (9+ / 0-)

    On this measure he's now recovered half the losses he suffered in the week after the first debate.

    Also worth noting that OH moved up to "likely Obama" yesterday, meaning Obama is now at 271 in "safe" and "likely" states.

    I'm not sure what else Romney has left, especially if he's not even going to talk to the media. He's down to stuff like hoping the state polls are wrong and that the undecideds break his way.

    We can tell him how that goes from 2004.

    •  If Romney can't shift Ohio (7+ / 0-)

      then it's hard to see how he isn't screwed.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 03:25:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  He'd have to win every other battleground (0+ / 0-)

        state except for Iowa or New Hampshire.  I'm assuming that Nevada is in Obama's column.  That means Colorado, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia.  Plus IA or NH.  It's possible, but not very likely.

        “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

        by Paleo on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 03:34:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  October Surprise (0+ / 0-)

          I was actually thinking about this.

          Let's not forget that every sample assumes Romney will win big in those states on Election day. At this point even a major October surprise would have to be colossal to overcome the voters already  locked in

      •  He's a cautious man but (6+ / 0-)

        Nate Silver seems to be getting close to calling it.

        •  Nate Silver's conceit (0+ / 0-)

          is that he can build assumptions into his secret model and just pretend that he's being cautious.

          But I think the picture in Ohio is pretty clear at this point.

          Ok, so I read the polls.

          by andgarden on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 04:00:55 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  what is the history of polling aggregates? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32

          isn't this a pretty recent phenomenon?

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 04:03:39 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Ohio and Nevada, I think. (0+ / 0-)

        I think it's all but a given Obama will win New Mexico, and I'm only slightly less certain about Wisconsin. I don't think he will lose New Hampshire, but he can lose that state plus Iowa and win all of the other Kerry states, plus Ohio and Nevada, and win.

        It's hard not to be optimistic when you think about it like that, no?

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 04:23:11 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  He keeps fiddling around with CO and VA (0+ / 0-)

      back and forth which is irritating me. Personally even tho Obama doesn't need Florida, I personally want to him to win it again. Mostly cause I got fam and roots down there. Plus it will knock the wind out of Romney, and close the door locked shut to 270 for him.

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

      by BKGyptian89 on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 04:04:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  ME-Sen (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, KingofSpades, Paleo, itskevin

    Apparently thus endeth the GOP "knock down King and prop up Dill so Summers can pull a LePage" strategy "  King Angus' coronation likely set for January:

    http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/...

    37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

    by Mike in MD on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 03:59:39 PM PDT

  •  I love how the CNN talking heads... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, MBishop1, sapelcovits

    ...were even forced to admit that there has not been any momentum in Ohio since their last poll, and that other reputable firms are corroborating this.  John King just kind of came out and said Mitt can't win without Ohio, and try as Wolf might trying to focus on "this is within the margin of error" even he sounded dispirited.  

    The horserace ain't quite shaping up how you guys want it to be to sell ad space, huh?  Cynical bastards.

    •  Margin of error on the poll was 3.5% (0+ / 0-)

      So even giving Romney the whole of the MOE benefit Pres Obama would have been up in Ohio by 0.5%, but Wolf I guess rounded it up so he could push his "tie" storyline.  Wolf never mentions that the 4% MOE could also mean Pres Obama is up 8% and not the 4% the poll found.  

      "The Democratic Party is not our friend: it is the only party we can negotiate with." Rebecca Solnit The Rain on Our Parade.

      by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 04:37:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  it's plus or minus 3.5 (0+ / 0-)

        So, you have to double it. A 7 point lead would be outside the margin of error. It's going to be pretty hard for anyone to poll outside the MOE in any swing state.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 05:05:40 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  WI-Sen debate tonight @ 8EST on WISN (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    you can catch it on their website, Im probably sure it will be on cspan. I think its safe to say this is probably the most nastiest senate race this cycle, esp since Tommy brought 9/11 into this.

    I would put this race with the following:

    '98 NY-Sen: Schumer v. D'Amato
    '00 FL-Sen: Nelson v. McCollum
    '02 GA-Sen: Cleland v. Chambliss
    '02 LA-Sen: Landrieu v. Harkel
    '06 NJ-Sen: Menendez v. Kean Jr.
    '06 TN-Sen: Ford Jr. v. Corker
    '10 IL-Sen: Giannoulius v. Kirk

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

    by BKGyptian89 on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 04:53:42 PM PDT

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