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I’m a statistics geek.  I calculate my own election outcome prediction based on all publically available polling data, as well as other types of data, such as the consumer confidence rating, economic data, and other factors.

I don’t really do this for public consumption, but I do post my data once in a while.  I want to go on record before the election so that I can later boast if my numbers are particularly accurate.

So, my predictions for the 2012 presidential election are below the orange prezel…

Popular vote:
    Obama 49.9%
    Romney 48.7%
    Other 1.4%

Competitive States:
    NC  -  Romney by 2.84%
    FL  -  Romney by 1.48%
    CO  -  Obama by 0.70%
    VA  -  Obama by 0.90%
    NH  -  Obama by 1.99%
    OH  -  Obama by 2.03%
    IA  -  Obama by 2.46%
    NV  -  Obama by 3.70%
    WI  -  Obama by 4.15%
    PA  -  Obama by 4.55%

EC
    Obama:    303
    Romney:    235

Also, Obama's margins in PA, WI, NV, IA, and OH will be high enough to avoid recounts and/or lengthy legal actions.  Romney will concede on Wednesday morning.

Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 10:19 AM PT: Here are my final numbers calculated on election day morning using the last polls from last night and this morning.

SD    -12.47
SC    -10.40
IN    -9.61
GA    -9.58
MO    -9.02
MT    -8.58
AZ    -8.44
NE(2)    -4.70
NC    -2.75
FL    -1.44
VA    0.95
CO    1.33
OH    1.90
IA    2.20
NH    2.63
NV    3.88
WI    4.19
PA    4.50
MI    6.22
MN    6.85
OR    7.28
NM    9.06
NJ    10.87
ME    11.29
CT    12.23
WA    12.53

Poll

EC votes won by Obama

44%48 votes
32%35 votes
12%14 votes
0%0 votes
11%12 votes

| 109 votes | Vote | Results

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