I have a school buddy who works for the American Enterprise Institute and writes for the National Review. As you can imagine, we don't agree on Politics, but to his credit, he does statistical analysis and describes his methodology. He just published an article on the National Review Online that predicts that Obama will win tomorrow and breaks it down by State. So from his perspective its Twilight, whereas I suppose we would say it is Breaking Dawn!
What I found interesting, is that he decided to do predictive analysis based on the racial breakdown by state. Although Mr Olsen doesn't come out and say it , his inference is that Republicans can no longer win elections based on white male voters. This is hardly news to Kos readers, but apparently its the elephant in room in conservative circles. I admit I enjoyed reading the hate comments left by readers , and one suggest he published his analysis at the Daily Kos!
The article can be found here : http://www.nationalreview.com/...
6:35 PM PT: I was reading the comments to the NRO article, and one really caught my eye as to the bubble these poor people live in and how their message alienates people of color, women and urban, educated whites . :
"If this was some far, far, far, rightwing kook writing this, I could almost understand. But, that this article comes from the VP of AEI it makes it that much more disconcerting and ugly. I read this and I think: it's no wonder the left thinks we're racists and bigots. What Mr. Olsen is clearly stating is that people can't see past their race and their religion--under any circumstances, it seems. National Debt? Doesn't matter. Benghazi? Doesn't matter. High taxes? Doesn't matter. Unemployment? Doesn't matter. Fast and Furious? Doesn't matter. Obamacare? Doesn't matter. In fact, he doesn't mention one issue at all. Instead, he talks about blue-collar whites and cafeteria Catholics as if they don't have brains in their heads, as if there is absolutely no chance they'd ever think about making a change. Instead, he seems to think their skin color and religious tendencies will override, I guess, anything that's happened in the last four years, contrary to years and years of historical evidence that voters do throw bums out on all sorts of occasions and for all sorts of reasons, and do vote outside their race and religion often enough that it makes quite a difference. "
Mr. Olsen, I don't know you. And you can throw all sorts of stats around but you're doing the conservative movement a dishonor by writing stuff like this. If you wanna think Obama is going to win, fine. But your reasoning is both illogical and small-minded, and it only furthers to promote misconceptions about us.