This election cycle the major news organization agreed to a pooled exit polling system that is totally embargoed until 5:00 p.m. when they start to receive information they can not start releasing specific poll numbers until 7:30 p.m.
Yesterday, on a conference call Stephanie Cutter warned supporters of President Obama, "Don't Panic Over Early Exit Polls," since we've banked so many of our votes in early voting we will not be proportionately represented in exit polls.
"They should “keep calm,” even if they hear snippets of information favoring Republican Mitt Romney.
“My warning, we need to stay calm for much of the day,” Stephanie Cutter, Mr. Obama’s deputy campaign manager, said, touting thousands of early ballots already submitted by voters. “We’ve already banked a pretty big portion of our vote.”
The fear, she explained, was early numbers leaking before voters have finished going to the polls, creating unnecessary panic and pessimism among Democrats.
“Keep calm and tweet on,” Ms. Cutter said. “So, no matter what you hear tomorrow about turnout in Republican counties or exit polls, particularly early in the day, please remember and remind your readers that, because of early votes, we’re where we need to be to win….I don’t think there’s going to be official exits until the end of the day, but if things leak out that aren’t validated or weighted, please stay calm.”
So please keep this in mind with the big wave of exit polls are released in a few hours. Also, total vote counts could swing back and forth depending on when early votes are included, and remember that provisional votes will not be counted until later.
The Washington Post Staff reports:
The first rule of exit polls is this: Before 5 p.m., there are no exit polls. That’s when the “quarantine” lifts on the exit poll data, collected by interviewers stationed at polling places across the country, that major television networks use to project outcomes.
“Given the precautions we take, the chances are infinitesimal that you’ll see correct information before 5 p.m.,” says Larry Rosen, president of Edison Research, which runs the exit poll that the major networks and newspapers use (The Washington Post is among the newspapers that has paid for access).
It’s not like the floodgates open at 5 p.m., either: Networks are prohibited from releasing information that could be used to project the race until after polls have closed. It won’t be until 7 p.m. that projections get the green light on the East Coast.
WaPo expects some of our first results from VA where polls close at 7:00 p.m. Analysts will start to give hints about vote breakdowns by group that can give the careful listener clues. For example, pay attention to relative turnout in heavily "Democratic Northern Virginia as well as the Republican-leaning south and west portions of the state."
Another wave of exit polls will come at at 8:00 p.m., but it is likely that counting will go on late into the night. But, if the result in Ohio are within one-quarter of a percent there will be an automatic recount, but the 88 county election boards have until Nov 27 to certify results, unless controversial Secretary of State Husted expedites the rules. We could experience a lot of confusion, and probably court battles over absentee and provisional ballots.
David Plouffe is being interviewed by Wolf Bllitzer saying it is going to be a very close race.
If the highly optimistic forecasts of Nate Silver and most others come true, we could be sufficiently far ahead in other states that we will know who wins the Presidential election by late tonight, but in the event it is a roller-coaster plan on having plenty of popcorn ready, and keep your emotional seat belts fastened.
2:53 PM PT: John King reports first exit polls, saying 60% said the economy is the most important issue.
"Sharing my Values" is the second most important issue.
52% to 44% say Obama is most like us in terms of sharing values.
51% to 47% say Romney could best handle the economy.
49% to 46% of Virginians say the ACA should be repealed.
3:07 PM PT: 73% of the voters today are white
Latinos 10% so far
37% say Democrats
34% say Republicans.
Indies went by too fast for me.
For some reason that seems to contradict what I said above about the embargo on specific CNN just released numbers on Kentucky showing Romney ahead.
Obama aides say dead heats in Florida and North Carolina. Stephanie Cuttrer says the Presidents mood is "serene, clam, and excited.." Did his traditional game of basketball.
3:26 PM PT:
3:29 PM PT: CBS News Exit Polls from 5:40 PM
Early exit poll: 60 percent say economy top issue
In CBS News/New York Times poll of likely voters taken shortly before the election, Mitt Romney had the edge over President Obama on the question of which candidate would do a better job handling the economy, 51 percent to 45 percent.
Seventeen percent of voters cited health care as their top issue. Voters were split on the 2010 health care law: 45 percent wanted to repeal some or all of it, while 47 percent wanted to expand it or keep it as is. Fifteen percent of voters called the deficit their top issue, and 4 percent cited foreign policy.
Three in four voters said the economy is in bad condition. Thirty-nine percent said it is getting better, 31 percent said it is getting worse, and 28 percent said it was staying the same. Three in four Obama voters say the economy is getting better, while 59 percent of Romney voters say it's getting worse. Fifty-two percent of voters overall say the nation is on the wrong track, while 46 percent say it is headed in the right direction.
Asked to compare their family finances to four years ago, 24 percent of voters said they are better off today, while 34 percent said they are worse off. Four in 10 say they are about the same. Fifty-three percent said the U.S. economic system favors the wealthy, including 77 percent of Obama voters, while 41 percent called it fair to most Americans, including 67 percent of Romney voters.
Fifty-three percent of voters say the government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals, up 10 points from four years ago. That includes 84 percent of Romney voters. Forty-one percent say the government should do more, including 69 percent of Obama voters.
Fifty-two percent say Romney's policies favor the rich. Thirty-six percent say he favors the middle class, while just 2 percent say he favors the poor.