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Leading Off:

CA-07: That's a wrap, folks! The AP has now called CA-07 for Democrat Ami Bera, who defeats GOP Rep. Dan Lungren. Thursday evenining's update from Sacramento County put Bera up 5,696 votes over Lungren, meaning he captured more than 54.7 percent of the almost 20,000 votes counted since Wednesday. That brings the number of ballots outstanding to the 20,000-25,000 range; even assuming (generously) 25,000 votes left to be counted, Lungren would need more than 61% of them. That's not going to happen, which is why the AP made it's call. Congratulations, Congressman-elect Ami Bera!

Senate:

KY-Sen: Ordinarily, I wouldn't care much about the head of EMILY's List saying she likes the idea of an Ashley Judd candidacy in Kentucky, but I was a little surprised to see Stephanie Schriock reveal that she'd "had some initial conversations" with Judd about running against GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell. I doubt anything will come of it, but this at least is a bit further along than the usual celebrity speculation. (Tommy Lee Jones for TX-Sen, anyone?) Still, I suspect the idea of a Judd run is likely still-born, given her opposition to mountain-top coal-mining and the fact that she currently lives in Tennessee.

Gubernatorial:

MD-Gov: State Del. Heather Mizeur says she's "taking a very serious look" at a run for governor in 2014, when Gov. Martin O'Malley will be term-limited out. Given the other big Democratic names looking to succeed MO'M, though, Mizeur may actually be making a play for LG—something she denies. But Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown is an almost sure bet to run (he already has O'Malley's support), and he's term-limited as well anyway, so his seat will be open. Other big names who might run include AG Doug Gansler, state Comptroller Peter Franchot, and Howard County Executive Ken Ulman.

PA-Gov: Quinnipiac's new poll of Pennsylvania unfortunately doesn't test any head-to-heads against GOP Gov. Tom Corbett, who's up for re-election in 2014, but they do have new job approval numbers for him. His ratings have shot up to 40-38, from a miserable 35-50 (his all-time low) over the summer. Quinnipiac thinks that Corbett's response to Hurricane Sandy (which earns him positive marks on a separate question) may have helped his overall ratings. But Sandy didn't have nearly the impact in PA as it did in NY and NJ, so I have to wonder if that bump will fade.

There's also a new Democratic name in the mix: John Hanger, who served as head of ex-Gov. Ed Rendell's Dept. of Environmental Protection, says he's "seriously looking at running." Hanger says he wouldn't take the plunge, though, if Rendell (who was termed out in 2010) wanted to take another go at things, or if newly-reelected Sen. Bob Casey decides to seek his dad's old job.

Oh, and for the sake of completeness, there's one other person who gets constantly mentioned but whose intentions, as ever, remain a mystery: ex-Rep. Joe Sestak, the honey badger of Pennsylvania politics. PoliticsPA also goes through the Great Mentioner routine and handicaps just about every conceivable name, both Democrat and Republican, who could go up against Corbett.

House:

AZ-02: As you know if you've been following the overtime race in Arizona's 2nd District, Dem Rep. Ron Barber's lead over Republican Martha McSally has been bouncing around—it now stands at 923, as of Thursday evening. But the more important point, as Taniel observes, is that conservative Cochise County has finished counting. That means any remaining ballots are in blue-tilting Pima (which accounts for over 80 percent of the district's population). And that means things are looking particularly hopeless for McSally.

CA-52: As of Thursday evening, Democrat Scott Peters now leads incumbent GOPer Brian Bilbray by 3,877 votes, an increase of 929 votes from before. These late-counted ballots have been particularly friendly to Peters, who got 54.3 percent of the 11,000 just added in the last batch. The San Diego County Registrar is estimating 120,000 ballots outstanding countywide, which means about 30,000 in CA-52. Under that assumption, Bilbray's magic number is now 56.4 percent. For reference, Mary Bono Mack's magic number in CA-36 was almost 59 percent when she conceded to Raul Ruiz. Peters isn't sitting as pretty as Ruiz was just yet, but if the trend continues, another update or two will get him there.

FL-18: A judge in St. Lucie County has scheduled a hearing for Friday afternoon regarding GOP Rep. Allen West's insistence that all early eight days of early voting in the county be counted a second time, not just the partial set of three days that was already retabulated. The county must certify its results on Sunday, and the state will do the same on Tuesday, so time is running short (though presumably the judge could extend the deadlines if need be).

Meanwhile, West is saying nope, he won't move back to his home state of Georgia to run for office there, after the state Republican chair invited him to do so. West said he's moved around too much as a military guy and that his wife wanted to retire to Florida, so that's where he'll stay.

NC-07: We finally have an updated vote count in NC-07, where Dem Rep. Mike McIntyre now reportedly has a 483-vote lead over Republican David Rouzer, up from 420 previously. The SBOE still shows a 420-vote edge, but counties have been completing their individual canvasses and this new total reflects those final numbers from two jurisdictions. The remaining counties will complete their official counts on Thursday, and results are expected to be certified Friday. At that point, Rouzer (who will very likely still be trailing by then) will have to decide whether to seek a recount. The law allows for one, but four or five hundred votes are a lot to make up.

NY-27: Hahah!

TN-04: I have no words:

A decade before calling himself "a consistent supporter of pro-life values," Tennessee physician and Republican U.S. Rep. Scott DesJarlais supported his ex-wife's decision to get two abortions before their marriage, according to the congressman's sworn testimony during his divorce trial.

Obtained by the Chattanooga Times Free Press, the couple's 2001 trial transcript also confirms DesJarlais had sexual relationships with at least two patients, three coworkers and a drug representative while he was chief of staff at Grandview Medical Center in Jasper, Tenn. During one affair with a female patient, DesJarlais prescribed her drugs, gave her an $875 watch and bought her a plane ticket to Las Vegas, records show.

Man. If this stuff had come out before election day, Eric Stewart might have pulled off an extraordinary upset. As it was, he widely outperformed the 4th District's incredibly conservative lean and lost by "only" 11 points. (The seat probably went for Mitt Romney by over 30.) But while that's all in the past, DesJarlais certainly has his future to worry about—a future which is now sure to include a serious challenge in the GOP primary. I wouldn't be surprised at all if DesJarlais didn't seek a third term, and I wouldn't even be surprised if he resigned over this.

Oh, and there's much more at the link. And wow, you can also find the entire 679-page transcript here. Much, much, much more there as well.

TX-15: Dem Rep. Ruben Hinojosa was just elected to take over the Congressional Hispanic Caucus from fellow Texan Charlie Gonzalez, who is retiring from Congress. We mention this because there had been some retirement speculation last cycle regarding the 72-year-old Hinojosa, mostly because his family has been mired in financial troubles. He also experienced a disconcerting moment a few weeks ago when, at a debate, he said: "I’m drawing a blank on the Second Amendment, but I think it's the weapons, isn't it? The NRA?" Presumably, though, his ascension to the top of the CHC means he plans to stick around.

Other Races:

CA-St. Asm: Gentlemen, start your taxing! It took more than a week of counting, but the Democratic supermajorities in the California legislature are finally a done deal. The last two close races in the California Assembly, necessary to get over the 2/3rds mark, were finally called in the last few days. First was AD-32 in the Central Valley, where Dem Rudy Salas defeated GOPer Pedro Rios; this was followed on Thursday by the call in Orange County's AD-65, where Dem Sharon Quirk-Silva defeated incumbent GOPer Chris Norby (the latest count put her ahead by 3,348 votes). (David Jarman)

NC-LG: Probably the highest-level uncalled race left in the land is for lieutenant governor in North Carolina, where Democrat Linda Coleman trails Republican Dan Forest by 10,300 votes. As with NC-07 (see above), results should be finalized on Friday. A key difference, though: Coleman needs to get that margin down to 10,000 in order to seek a recount, since state law allows for one only if the spread is 0.5 percent or 10K—whichever is less. In this case, Coleman is behind by about a quarter of a percent, so it's the 10K threshold which is the sticking point. She's engaged in some legal wrangling over uncounted ballots to try to alter the calculus, but even if she somehow does get into recount territory, it's hard to imagine altering the result when the margin is that large.

Grab Bag:

Freshmen: Newly-elected members of the 113th Congress are in Washington, DC this week for their first orientation program. That includes the biannual tradition of the class photo:

113th Congress freshman class
(click for larger)
If you'd like to learn more about our newest representatives, the National Journal has a terrific interactive feature you can explore.

Libertarians: As we've perused last week's election returns, we'd noticed a number of races where Libertarian candidates appear to have played spoiler for Republicans—certainly, more than we're accustomed to. While we haven't run a comparison with prior cycles, we've identified no fewer than nine contests in 2012 where the Libertarian received more votes than the difference between the Democratic and Republican candidates. What's more, none of these involved the typical 1 or maybe 2 percent you ordinarily expect a Lib to garner: Looking at the three-way vote, all but one were over 3 percent, and three took 6 percent or more, with a high of 6.5 percent in the Montana Senate race. These definitely seem like unusually high figures.

So what's going on here? I wouldn't want to speculate too much based on this limited data set. But I could easily believe that a growing proportion of conservative-leaning voters are too disgusted with the GOP to pull the Republican lever, but who won't vote for Democrats either, are choosing a third option and going Libertarian instead. This thesis  dovetails with something else we saw this year: independents generally leaning more rightward simply because at least some former Republicans are now refusing to identify with their old party. It's not much of a stretch to imagine that some folks like that don't want to vote for their old party either.

The chart below summarizes our findings. (Note that MI-11 refers to the unexpired term for ex-Rep. Thad McCotter's seat, not the full-two year term that starts in January.) It's too facile to say that without the Lib, every Democrat would have lost. But some very likely would have, so it's reasonable to conclude that the Libertarian Party gifted quite a few seats to Team Blue this year. Thanks, friends!

Race Dem Votes GOP Votes Lib Votes (L) % (D) - (R) Margin
IN-Sen Donnelly 1,268,407 Mourdock 1,126,832 Horning 146,453 5.8% 141,575 -4,878
MT-Sen Tester 234,465 Rehberg 215,701 Cox 31,287 6.5% 18,764 -12,523
MT-Gov Bullock 234,980 Hill 226,555 Vandevender 17,729 3.7% 8,425 -9,304
AZ-01 Kirkpatrick 117,422 Paton 109,508 Allen 14,450 6.0% 7,914 -6,536
AZ-09 Sinema 108,056 Parker 101,089 Gammill 14,361 6.4% 6,967 -7,394
MA-06 Tierney 179,603 Tisei 175,953 Fishman 16,668 4.5% 3,650 -13,018
MI-11 Curson 159,267 Bentivolio 151,740 Tatar 11,611 3.6% 7,527 -4,084
NH-01 Shea-Porter 171,356 Guinta 158,482 Kelly 14,968 4.3% 12,874 -2,094
UT-04 Matheson 108,275 Love 105,629 Vein 5,703 2.6% 2,646 -3,057
Incidentally, here's a list of other races where a third party also played a possible role. The party or parties taking more votes than the difference between the first- and second-place finishers are listed after each race. First up, Republican wins:
AZ-Sen: Libertarian
NV-Sen: "None of the above" and Independent American Party
IN-Gov: Libertarian
CO-06: Libertarian and an independent
IL-13: An independent
IN-02: Libertarian
MI-01: Libertarian and Green
And Democratic wins:
MI-11: U.S. Taxpayers (in addition to Libertarian in chart above)
NY-24: Green
It's hard to imagine the Libertarians helping Republicans in IN-Gov, CO-06, IN-02, and MI-01, just like it's hard to imagine the Green Party helping Democrats in NY-24. However, it's not inconceivable that the Green hurt Dems in MI-01, though that may have been balanced out by the Lib (who got more votes). Something similar may have happened in CO-06 as well. IL-13 is harder to read, and Nevada's unique "none of the above" option is a real scrambler, though the IAP is decidedly right-wing. So is the U.S. Taxpayers party in MI-11, but as we noted, there was also a Libertarian there as well.

Models: Polling averages often don't predict the election margin correctly, even if they do predict the winner. Usually, they underestimate the Democrat's performance in blue states, and underestimate the Republican's performance in red states. We can attempt to correct for this by simply adding a number to the polling average margin in each state based on how "red" or "blue" each state is. This simple model, developed by Daily Kos Elections' dreaminonempty, was successful: It resulted in predictions that, on average, were indeed more accurate than the polling averages alone—and, surprisingly, more accurate than Nate Silver's predictions as well. Click through for dreamin's full explanation of the results.

Pres-by-CD: Virginia appears to be one of the few states in the nation which actually makes presidential results by congressional district available from an official source, which you can find at the link. I will caution, though, that pres-by-CD data published by the legislature following redistricting turned out to be wrong. This data should hopefully be more accurate (and it comes from a different source, the State Board of Elections). Note, though, that there are still a few precincts outstanding in most CDs, but if these numbers are correct, they should be very close to the final tallies. (Hat-tip: telephasic and Johnny Longtorso)

Polltopia: If you want to check out a bunch of amusing, half-hearted mea culpas from pollsters whose numbers and/or prejudices this year were far too friendly toward Republicans, check out the quotes gathered up by NPR at the link. There's some good stuff there, from the likes of known problem children such as David Paleologos (Suffolk) and Brad Coker (Mason-Dixon), as well as Harry Wilson, from the less-scrutinized but just-as-culpable Roanoke College. Wilson makes the most fulsome admission, saying: "I was drinking that Republican Kool-Aid."

WATN?: You may recall Annette Taddeo from her run against GOP Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in the old FL-18 in 2008, and you might all remember she was mentioned as a possible candidate against soon-to-be-ex-Rep. David Rivera, who just lost to Joe Garcia in the new FL-26. Now Taddeo's seeking to become chair of the Florida Democratic Party, since outgoing chair Rod Smith (whose term ends in January) is not standing for re-election.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 05:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Cook on Dems congressional performance (12+ / 0-)

    "extraordinary."  "remarkable."

    Democrats scored a net gain of two seats, something that was inconceivable 90 days ago or, for that matter, on Nov. 5. They held five of their six most vulnerable seats, and no Democratic incumbent lost reelection. Of 10 toss-up races, Democrats won nine. For what was generally considered to be a non-wave election, those results are extraordinary.

    . . . .

    the “Drive for 25” was never really an attainable goal to begin with. Republicans now have built-in advantages—chiefly redistricting and the concentration of nonwhite voters in a few minority-majority districts—that make it impossible for Democrats to reach a majority in the absence of a massive wave. The fact that Democrats were able to win some 200 seats with a less-than-universally-loved president topping the ticket is remarkable.

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/...

    I don't share his view that the Dems need a "massive wave" to win 17 seats the rest of the decade, but it will be difficult for the reasons he states.

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 05:16:25 AM PST

    •  I love how Cook just can't deal with the fact (19+ / 0-)

      That as much as he personally dislikes him, Obama isn't unpopular and has a pretty decent net favorable rating.

    •  The fact he found Senate gains for Dems (7+ / 0-)

      to be "remarkable" makes me doubt his insight with regards to the massive wave being necessary. He's good for spilling half-assed internals but that's about it.

      21, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco, Terracotta, and Cultural Gem of Green Country!)

      by gigantomachyusa on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 05:55:15 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  2020. Then we get to redistrict. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bluehen96

      Just think. We will be able to win back control by either 2014 or 2016 even with the thugs gerrymandering. Then in 2020, we shift the boundaries back and .....BOOM. No more GOP. Well, the domination from the Dems will be in place more accurately. Instead of broadening their message, cheating thugs look for more ways to cheat. But that is a loser proposition.

      Can't wait until 2014. 2012 was the beginning of the end for the cheating class.

      "Too often we excuse those who are willing to build their own lives on the shattered dreams of others" Robert F. Kennedy

      by realwischeese on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 05:58:22 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  MD will almost certainly go for the 8-0 map (0+ / 0-)

        in 2020. They should have done it for 2010 but there was  a lot of push back from the MD delegation to leave their districts as close to what they were before as possible. Andy Harris could have been knocked out if the eastern shore had been drawn into Baltimore County.

      •  Lesson from history (3+ / 0-)

        Only three times in 100 years has the party in control of the White House gained House seats in a midterm election. That's 3 out of 26 times, and only 2 of those were in the second midterm election.

        Check it out on Wikipedia. See the nice table here.

        Once in FDR's first term when he was battling the Great Depression.

        More recently, once when the Repubs were impeaching Clinton and the public didn't like it.

        The third time after "9/11 changed everything", or at least changed the election results.

        Hope we don't see anything as dramatic as a major terrorist attack, an impeachment, or a Great Depression to upset the pattern.

        But the strong established pattern is that the "In" party loses seats to the "Out" party in midterms, in 23 of the past 26 midterm elections.

        So in a reality-based community, for 2014 we need to pick our targets -- and concentrate on defense.

        Then by 2016, the Repubs will be a different party (or we will be a different country).

        Anyway, the 60-year pattern is two terms of Democrats in the White House followed by two terms of the Repubs, so 2016 ain't looking so good either.

        •  Your stuff on Midterms is solid (3+ / 0-)

          but the "alternating two term presidency" thing isn't really that supported by evidence. There are plenty of exceptions even with that relatively small n. There's been no evidence that the Republican party has learned their lesson about not just being a party for angry white dudes,* and the electorate will probably be up to ~30% minority by 2016. Assuming we're not in recession, I don't see why we're any worse than 50/50 to retain the White House in 2016.

          *In fact I'm not convinced they CAN learn that lesson with their current coalition calling the shots until they're really crushed and blocked out of the process for a substantial period of time, but that's not the point of this post.

        •  the past century of history is far less useful (0+ / 0-)

          than a careful and thorough analysis of these districts, with this historical moment's context, and this electorate's ongoing demographic and ideological shifts. it is lazy to point at the past and yell "history!" as if nothing ever changes, it takes a lot more effort to actually look at this moment in history.

          part of why pundits like cook are so fucking useless is that their assumption that the electorate will never ever be anything different than that of the 80s, 90s and zeroes when he started paying attention. party systems change, and we're right in the middle of a pretty dramatic party system tectonic shift at the moment. just as the pundits assuming reagan democrats are the key swing demographic, and that hyperinflation is always right around the corner, assuming that obama is a fluke and not a signal of something big in the electorate is proof of cook's being utterly out of touch.

          a lot is moving right now, under the surface of the electorate, and the economy's on the edge of a boom. assuming that democrats cannot possibly win 17 seats in an off-election because history! is rather ridiculous, IMO. argue why, on a district by district basis, 17 seats are out of range for the dems, taking ongoing demographic shifts into account, and that would be worth a read.

  •  what is the count (2+ / 0-)

    what is the final count in the house?

  •  Grrrrrr for that photo of fresh congresscritters. (5+ / 0-)

    Why are the women all in the front row?? You can tell that some of them are taller than some of the men.

    When I did Marine Botany at Woods Hole in 1973, I noticed that all the class pictures were mixed up until the gap during the depression. When classes picked up again after WWII, the women were all in the front row. I objected and our class went back to the mixed tradition - with some justification as I was taller than the instructor.

    Grrrr……



    Is it true? Is it kind? Is it necessary? . . . and respect the dignity of every human being.

    by Wee Mama on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 05:29:50 AM PST

  •  Ashley Judd (6+ / 0-)

    lives in Nashville, which is not exactly the same as someone who lives in New York or Hollywood trying to go back to Kentucky.

    And she is also well-known as a major booster of University of Kentucky basketball and as the wife of IndyCar champion Dario Franchitti.

    •  And she's a Kentucky Colonel. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      quaoar

      Like most people of any stature in Kentucky.

    •  If she moves to KY (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      quaoar

      and decides to run against McConnell, how much support will she get from everyone here and across America to take him down?

      I know she has the skills, the guts, and the passion (she's a TN delegate for Obama).

      Put some good campaign staff behind her, some bucks, and "It's ON!".

      Enagaged activism wins elections. 100 million words on liberal/progressive websites gets beat by one new GOP voter casting their vote.

      by Nebraska68847Dem on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 07:30:38 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  can't believe it takes so long to count votes (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Aunt Pat

    a district still has 30,000 uncounted ballots?

    we voted 10 days ago.

    An ambulance can only go so fast - Neil Young

    by mightymouse on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 05:40:37 AM PST

  •  I'm slightly conflicted about AZ-2 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Aunt Pat

    I'm delighted our Dem won of course and I'm happy for Barber.  But living far away I had a working assumption is would likely go Repub and was actually looking forward to a congresswoman who wanted to kick Santorum "in the jimmy".

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

    I'm not liberal. I'm actually just anti-evil, OK? - Elon James White

    by Satya1 on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 05:40:53 AM PST

  •  Is this the Republicans' version of 1988? (6+ / 0-)
    The 1988 election proved such a watershed for Democrats precisely because Bush was not nearly as compelling a politician as Reagan. The late Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, D-N.Y.New YorkPopulation (2010): 19,378,102Registered Voters: 24.70% R, 49.60% D, 25.70% I Governor: Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D)Senators: Sen. Charles Schumer (D), Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) Full Almanac Profile », with his inimitable timbre that mixed Harvard and Hell’s Kitchen, expressed the Democratic view at one fundraiser when he sniffed that if Democrats could not beat Bush, they should “find another country” to run in. When Bush nonetheless trounced Dukakis, Democrats were compelled to acknowledge that the GOP message had broader appeal than the Democrats’ fading New Deal liberalism. Only then did the party fully commit to the painful reassessment that produced the centrist New Democrat movement and Bill Clinton’s victory four years later.

    Republicans face a comparable moment now. The vast majority of party strategists considered President Obama a uniquely vulnerable target, who had provoked a fierce ideological backlash from white conservatives over his stimulus and health care legislation, and who struggled against the headwind of the grudging recovery from the Great Recession. And yet, despite a narrow margin in the popular vote, Obama became the fourth Democratic nominee in the past six elections to capture at least 332 Electoral College votes. No GOP nominee since the elder Bush in 1988 has won more than the 286 that his son carried in 2004.

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/...

    Doubt it.  The Democrats were not the rigidly ideological dogmatic party the Republicans are.

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 05:43:16 AM PST

    •  The Republican Party... (0+ / 0-)

      Has been great in recent decades at having the establishment control the nomination process.  The establishment-supported candidate has won every nomination following the Goldwater debacle.  So I have no question if the elites decide to "go moderate" than they actually will.  In contrast, establishment picks seldom win the Democratic nomination.  

      It's different down ticket though, where Democrats have been generally willing to begrudgingly support candidates they don't like who they thought were the most electable, whereas Republicans don't show the same sense of pragmatism in their own primaries.  

  •  NC-LG - Coleman to file Lawsuit over Vote Count (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    condorcet
    Linda Coleman, the Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor who is still battling Republican Dan Forest for votes, plans to file two lawsuits Friday in Wake County that could further her cause.

    One argues that the state Constitution requires that same-day voter registration be allowed on Election Day, and that voters who cast provisional ballots after trying to vote should have their ballots counted. The second seeks to get more information from the Division of Motor Vehicles about people who said they registered at a DMV location but were not included on voting rolls when they tried to cast a ballot.

    http://www.newsobserver.com/...

    Coleman is suing to have same-day registration, which is allowed during early voting, extended to Election Day. With Republicans in charge in NC now, I fear this will go the opposite way and that they will just do away with same day registration.

    Filibuster reform now. No more Gentleman's agreements.

    by bear83 on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 06:00:14 AM PST

  •  Sally McMartha is attending freshman orientation (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden

    in DC, just in case.  ☛ http://azstarnet.com/... Let's hope this is as close as she gets to the US House of Reps.

    The free market is not the solution, the free market is the problem.

    by Azazello on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 06:08:54 AM PST

  •  GOP lapdog pollsters haz a sad (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PassionateJus, Sherri in TX, R30A

    Why would anyone think that non-white turnout would DECREASE over four years when the non-white population has INCREASED? Because minorities aren't as excited about Obama as they were four years ago? Sorry, but that's idiotic. If there was any "enthusiasm gap", the Dems more than made up for it with a vastly superior ground game. Didn't they hear Jim Messina at the Democratic National Convention say that in August we'd already registered MORE voters than in 2008? Didn't they pay attention to the numbers that revealed Democrats closing the gap in absentee ballots in states like Florida? Nope, instead they ignored the actual data, as usual, and followed the GOP narrative that Obama would do worse than in 2008 because--well--just because... In spite of the fact that Mitt Romney appealed LESS to minorities than John McCain and the ground game that won in 2008 had only gotten better.

    If a pollster admits to drinking anyone's "Kool-Aid" they need to get out of the business of statistics and admit that they're just pundits with calculators. They should ignore the narrative and focus on facts.

    "No, Governor Romney, corporations are not people. People have hearts, they have kids, they get jobs, they get sick, they cry, they dance. They live, they love, and they die. And that matters." --Elizabeth Warren

    by foreverblue on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 06:13:54 AM PST

  •  Still waiting in NY (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Paleo, condorcet

    for ballot count for Cecilia Tkaczyk and Terry Gipson.

    http://www.timesunion.com/...

    If you're in a coalition and you're comfortable, you know it's not a broad enough coalition" Bernice Johnson Reagon

    by Denise Oliver Velez on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 06:15:15 AM PST

  •  Excellent news regarding Ami Bera (6+ / 0-)

    Dispatching both Allen West and Dan Lungren makes for a sweet, sweet election even though we couldn't overcome the insidious GOP gerrymander on the whole.

    "Nach dem Spiel ist vor dem Spiel." -Sepp Herberger

    by surfbird007 on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 06:15:50 AM PST

  •  Woooooo!!! Nice to see an Indian-American (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wu ming, grover

    up there! Congratulations Congressman Bera!

  •  I am also stunned (0+ / 0-)
    he said. “I’ve got a practice
    Not for much longer pal

    --Enlighten the people, generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body and mind will vanish like spirits at the dawn of day. - Thomas Jefferson--

    by idbecrazyif on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 06:18:26 AM PST

  •  One less asshole in the House. Sweet. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden

    Congratulations to Ami Bera for sending this fascist clown home.

    I tremble for my country when I reflect that God is just; that his justice cannot sleep forever. ~Thomas Jefferson

    by bobdevo on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 06:35:14 AM PST

  •  Ohhhohhh,,,multiple shadenfreudasms this election (0+ / 0-)

    Noo, don't stop...there.now, right THERE. in Arizona, ..harder HARDER, ohhhhhh, yesssss, Senator Carmonaaana, Yessss

    Slow thinkers - keep right

    by Dave the Wave on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 06:59:27 AM PST

  •  Dan Lungren (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sherri in TX, grover

    Now he'll have the opportunity to go back to the private sector that 'pubs claim they think so highly of.

    "The test of our progress is not whether we add to the abundance of those who have much. It is whether we provide enough to those who have little. " --Franklin D. Roosevelt

    by jg6544 on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 07:11:28 AM PST

    •  As a lobbyist. (0+ / 0-)

      I guess that counts as "private sector."

      It's just a more direct route than the way he received their money as a congressman.

      © grover


      So if you get hit by a bus tonight, would you be satisfied with how you spent today, your last day on earth? Live like tomorrow is never guaranteed, because it's not. -- Me.

      by grover on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 11:41:25 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Tommy Thompson sure seemed to think so (0+ / 0-)

        when he refused to release his tax returns from his lobbyist years. He even made a big deal of how "private sector" he was, even when he should have known that emphasizing his post-gubernatorial years was a horrible idea.

        Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison)

        by fearlessfred14 on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 08:44:21 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Having a new congressman who's on my side (4+ / 0-)

    ..is worth something.

    Helping Dan Lungren get the boot?

    Priceless.

    Maybe one day the Fourth Estate will take their jobs seriously. Or not..

    by Anthony Page aka SecondComing on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 07:26:47 AM PST

  •  Re: CA Dem Supermajority (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    condorcet

    Before we get too excited about the new supermajority, I worry that it will prove less effective than we hope (much like when Dems had 60 seats in the US Senate).

    Rudy Salas made plenty of "Valleycrat"/"Blue Dog" noises, including taking a position AGAINST Prop 30 and TV ads that said we need to "rely less on government."

    Was this posturing for the more conservative electorate of his district?

    Or a hint that he will be an unreliable vote and a "Little Lieberman"?

    •  Your concern is well founded (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wu ming, Vico

      There are plenty in the caucus who will give us a difficult time. Salas is one, I can think of 10-15 others off the top of my head in the assembly/senate. The difference is that at least they aren't republicans, so it will be possible to get things done, even if its not as progressive as we'd like.

      People like Salas, Parea, Rubio, Correa etc are going to be the new republicans in CA holding out for better deals for the big money that owns them. The fact that they are in the caucus means they will likely eventually have to come to some sort of deal so things can still get accomplished.

      Also, as others have noted there are two vacant senate seats with Vargas and Negrete McLeod going to Congress. There will be special elections for those seats and it is highly likely members of the assembly will run for those, which will mean special elections for those assembly seats. This whole process will take 6-8 months and during that time we will not have the required votes for the supermajority.

    •  Part of the deal is (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Battling Maxo

      that if he wants to move up and not proffer a monied competitor he has to look somewhat sale-able to Shannon Grove's district too.

      Terry Phillips for Congress in 23rd District of California.

      by hankmeister on Fri Nov 16, 2012 at 08:27:12 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  bargaining with a DINO valleycrat (5+ / 0-)

      is still worlds better than with an orange county exurban fire eating howard jarvis wingnut republican. yeah, it's still the annual budget hostage game, but the cost of the final vote for passage just got less odious.

      besides, those wider margins means bills that pass on simple majority get easier to pass as well, and gives perez and steinberg more slack to allow DINOs to make periodic asshole votes on principle, while corralling them when the caucus really needs them.

  •  at last (0+ / 0-)

    CA rids itself of the leader of the right wing movement in CA

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