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9:48 AM PT: PA-Sen, -Gov: Ah, leave it to the Honey Badger to do something like this. Former Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak has long been notorious for refusing to share details about his electoral plans. He utterly stonewalled activists, officials, and reporters alike last year when asked if he'd seek his old seat in the House; indeed, we only knew for sure that he wasn't running when the filing deadline passed and he hadn't submitted petitions. This cycle, Sestak again refused to answer questions, but even more confoundingly, he started raising money—a lot of money—for lord only knows what reason.

Well, now we finally know, too. Sestak announced on Tuesday that he's getting an extremely, extremely early start on the 2016 Senate race. While it's obviously weird for a legitimate candidate to jump into a race three-and-a-half years ahead of time, I think this is good news. Sestak nearly defeated Sen. Pat Toomey during the disastrous year of 2010, and if he wants it this badly, he's probably our best hope of unseating Toomey the next time he's up for election.

It also removes Sestak from this cycle's gubernatorial race, which is good news, too. That's one fewer big-name candidate with a large warchest causing havoc in the Democratic primary, and it probably makes life easier for frontrunner Allyson Schwartz as well—which means it makes life even rougher for GOP Gov. Tom Corbett.

12:56 PM PT: GA-Sen: Republican businessman David Perdue had reportedly been interested in running for Senate, and now he's confirmed that directly for the first time. Perdue, a cousin of ex-Gov. Sonny Perdue, is a former CEO of Dollar General and is said to be quite wealthy, so his money could have a real impact in a GOP primary that lacks a single dominant candidate.

1:03 PM PT: ID-Sen: Will they never learn? Yet another example of a political campaign giving total control of its finances to a single individual... and a whole bunch of cash disappearing. This time, GOP Sen. Mike Crapo's former campaign manager, one Jake Ball, "invested" $250,000 in a Nevada company called Pyramid Global Resources as part of a two-month get-rich-quick scheme. Shockingly, the venture went bust. You'd think the name of the target entity would have been a sufficient clue, huh?

Ball had been district director for Republican Rep. Raul Labrador, also of Idaho, a post he just resigned in the wake of Crapo amending his FEC filings to explain that all this money is now gone. What's amazing is that this kind of thing just keeps happening, and frankly, campaigns allow it to keep happening by failing to institute sufficient safeguards. Just dumb.

1:12 PM PT: SD-Sen: It looks like South Dakota Democrats are preparing to rally 'round Rick Weiland as their candidate, with ex-Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and (apparently) U.S. Attorney Brendan Johnson now out of the picture. Weiland just secured the endorsement of former Sen. Tom Daschle, though maybe we don't want to read too much into it, since Weiland was once a Daschle staffer.

1:23 PM PT: NY-13: When I imagine possible replacements for Rep. Charlie Rangel, former Gov. David Paterson doesn't exactly spring readily to mind. Paterson, as any New York political observer well remembers, fumbled through a pretty disastrous partial term as governor following Eliot Spitzer's resignation in 2008 and was plagued with ethical scandals of his own. Indeed, Paterson's situation was so precarious that he was (wisely) pressured into stepping aside in favor of Andrew Cuomo in the 2010 gubernatorial election.

Paterson, though, is at least thinking about a possible comeback, in the event Rangel were to retire. But if voters are looking for a clean break with Rangel's ethical troubles, then it doesn't seem like Paterson would be their man. And given his prominent name, Paterson could wind up splitting the black vote with other candidates, such as Assemblyman Keith Wright, thus helping state Sen. Adriano Espaillat, who nearly unseated Rangel last year. So I don't see a lot of upside here for Paterson, but if Rangel does finally stand down, the Democratic primary would likely be a serious free-for-all, giving just about anyone a shot.

3:07 PM PT: IA-Sen: Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz, 33 years old and described as a "young Steve King," is in DC this week to meet with Republican officials (presumably the NRSC) about a potential Senate bid.

3:32 PM PT: Netroots Nation: I'm very pleased to announced that the staff of Daily Kos Elections will once again be conducting a horserace Q&A panel at the Netroots Nation convention next month in San Jose, CA. It's a very fun and popular event, with no interminable introductory remarks or boring presentations. We jump in immediately and take questions from the audience on any congressional or gubernatorial election you're interested in, whether from last cycle or this cycle.

The panel will take place on Saturday, June 22 at 3 PM Pacific time, and you can find complete details here. I'm hopeful it will be streamed online (it was last year), and we'll also try to set up a way to take questions from folks unable to attend in person, probably via Twitter. And if you're thinking about coming to the conference but haven't signed up yet, you can still register here. Hotel rooms are going fast, though, so act now.

3:43 PM PT: NH-Sen, -Gov: Another day, another poll showing New Hampshire Democrats in strong shape heading into 2014. This time it's from New England College (PDF), which shows Sen. Jeanne Shaheen crushing Scott Brown 53-35 and Gov. Maggie Hassan stomping state Sen. Jeb Bradley 54-29. Shaheen sports a huge 61-27 job approval rating, far better than the 48-43 of her Republican counterpart, Sen. Kelly Ayotte, while Hassan is at 55-25.

4:21 PM PT: AZ-01: Abby Livingston reports on the curious situation in Arizona's 1st Congressional District, a rare seat carried by Mitt Romney but held by a Democrat, Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, who narrowly defeated Republican Jonathan Paton last year. While the GOP should by all rights be eager to play offense here, Livingston was only able to get Republican operatives to scarf up a single potential name, state Rep. Adam Kwasman. Kwasman, though, is not without his shortcomings: He's only 30 years old, he was first elected just last year, he was campaign manager for the toxic Jesse Kelly in his 2010 race against Gabby Giffords, and he lives in what you'd have to call the "wrong" part of the district. AZ-01 is a monstrously sprawling rural jurisdiction, but Kwasman hails from the Tucson suburbs at its far southern end, which definitely makes him something of a "city boy" as far as this seat goes.

Anyhow, none of this is any reason to get cocky, as Kirkpatrick is certainly beatable even by a very generic Republican—and someone will definitely emerge, Kwasman or otherwise.

5:01 PM PT: MA-Sen: National Republicans are dipping their toes into Massachusetts Bay—just barely. Businessman Gabriel Gomez has opened a joint fundraising committee with the NRSC, though neither side shouted it from the rooftops. (It looks like the AP came across it while perusing FEC filings.) The committee is, however, holding a high-dollar Boston fundraiser for Gomez next week, headlined by Sen. John McCain.

Elsewhere on the fundraising front, Dem Rep. Ed Markey had to disinvite ex-Rep. Ben Jones of Georgia, who played the mechanic "Cooter" on the TV show "The Dukes of Hazzard," from a DC fundraising event this week. Last year, Jones penned a pro-Confederate flag rant after NASCAR cancelled an appearance of the infamous car from "Dukes" known as the General Lee, which is festooned with the stars-and-bars. Somehow, Markey's team wasn't aware of this, though considering that Jones was one of the few Democrats in Congress to call on Bill Clinton to resign during the Lewinsky saga, it's not like he doesn't have a well-known history of being on the wrong side of things. I feel like facepalming.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (7+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Tue May 14, 2013 at 06:00:09 AM PDT

  •  Now come on David... (5+ / 0-)

    This list of sane thoughts that Michelle Bachmann has is a bit much!

    Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

    by NMLib on Tue May 14, 2013 at 06:10:06 AM PDT

  •  Question. (11+ / 0-)

    Is Daily Kos orange because it has been fluoridated?!

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Tue May 14, 2013 at 06:45:55 AM PDT

  •  PA-SEN, PA-GOV: Sestak Has Decided. (26+ / 0-)

    It's Toomey. AP has tweeted, and I just received this email:

    For Immediate Release
    May 14, 2013

    Admiral Joe Sestak Announces Campaign for “Leadership for a Better America”

    Calls for change starting in Pennsylvania; U.S. Senate needs accountable leadership

    Pennsylvania – Former 3-star Admiral Joe Sestak today announced a campaign for “Leadership for a Better America.”

    [...]

    “In particular, the U.S. Senate’s lack of leadership and lack of accountability has meant our nation careens from crisis to crisis, paralyzing the governing of our nation.  Its failure to lead gravely affects how well state and local leaders can serve the people, and worse, the economic strength of our working families. We need leaders who serve the people and what they need -- not themselves, not ideology, nor party; leaders who commit themselves to pragmatic leadership for the people, with Pennsylvanian values and common sense.”

    “I want to begin that change, starting right here in Pennsylvania.  The Senate needs an independent leader accountable only to “We the People,” not any other interests…a leader accountable for deeds, not intentions,” said Admiral Sestak.

    The announcement included the launch of his new website, JoeSestak.com, and a video filmed outside Independence Hall, viewable here: http://youtu.be/...

    The committee is filed with the Federal Election Commission as “Friends of Joe Sestak,” an exploratory committee for the U.S. Senate....

  •  MI-Gov: Bernero on Schauer; Schauer AP interview (7+ / 0-)

    I was in airports all day Friday and Monday so someone might have already posted these in a live digest, but I didn't see anything in a quick glance through the comments. Since someone has to obsessively post every scrap of MI-Gov news...

    Gretchen Whitmer, John Austin, Bart Stupak, and now add 2010 gubernatorial nominee Virg Bernero to the list of former potential gubernatorial candidates endorsing not-yet-candidate Mark Schauer:

    "Earlier this week, I made clear that I had no intention of running again for Governor. Now I want to say that I'm actively encouraging my friend Mark Schauer to run.

    "Mark Schauer is the right candidate at the right time. He brings the energy and passion that Democrats will rally around, and he brings the know-how and policy expertise that Michigan needs," Bernero said.

    "I look forward to working with Mark to win back the governor's office - and to having a governor who's a partner in rebuilding Michigan's middle class."

    And then the AP got an interview with Schauer, who's been pretty quiet in the media through all of this. There's nothing particularly newsworthy, except that his quotes sound very candidate-y. My gut feeling is that we'll get an announcement at the end of this month.
    •  I certainly hope so (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, James Allen, MichaelNY

      I think a Peters-Schauer ticket would be our strongest foot forward.

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Tue May 14, 2013 at 10:05:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm still not sure why Schauer is considered (0+ / 0-)

        so strong of a candidate.  The only success he's had outside of the state legislature is being a one-term rep.  

        •  He represented and was popular in a swingish, (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, MetroGnome, bumiputera

          historically GOP state senate seat, and later won a swingish, historically GOP congressional seat, losing due to the huge 2010 wave that hit Michigan especially hard (I mean come on, John Dingell won with just 57%, while Dale Kildee won with just 53%, both in heavily Democratic districts running against third tier generic Republicans). Schauer is a pretty talented campaigner with a solid base in central Michigan.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Tue May 14, 2013 at 03:20:26 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  GA-Sen: David Perdue forms exploratory committee (6+ / 0-)

    http://atr.rollcall.com/...

    He's former Governor Sonny Perdue's cousin and works with him as head of the global trading company Perdue Partners.  He's also the former CEO of Dollar General so I assume he can bring some serious money to the race.  For what it's worth he's so far the only credible potential candidate on the GOP side whose never held office.

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Tue May 14, 2013 at 08:04:07 AM PDT

    •  Jeez, David. (5+ / 0-)

      How many days ago did you say that some business candidate would see an opening in the Republican primary here?

      Dollar General blows.

      http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

      by redrelic17 on Tue May 14, 2013 at 08:08:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        redrelic17, bumiputera, MichaelNY

        Perdue's name had been mentioned by Jim Galloway previously, though this is the first time Perdue himself has expressed interest. Still, didn't exactly take a high-grade crystal ball to imagine some wealthy guy might want to take a stab at it. Even Jack Kingston is not that imposing.

        Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

        by David Nir on Tue May 14, 2013 at 10:08:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  As someone who has worked (12+ / 0-)

        for Dollar General, yes they blow harder than any other retail position. I know people who have worked all through retail jobs, (which are unexpectedly hard to the naive; our convenience as consumers has a high price), who refuse to even consider working there. The turnover rate is ungodly. When I was there the manager was pregnant and about to leave, and the Assistant Manager was wanting to quit and focus on technical college. Had I stayed a few more weeks I might have ended up being the most senior employee there.

        It's a minimum wage job where they expect you to do the labor of two people. I was, for instance, expected to run the cash register as the only cashier in a busy-ass store that saw around 800-1200 dollars of cash flow on my register alone (and oh how much of it was actual cash, which sucked ass, to the point of my hands turning black from it), but at the same time I was supposed to split my being into two pieces, the other of which would simultaneously stock the front of the store. I guess it's a conservative businessman's idea job.

        On a related note, does anyone know if there are any politicians around supporting the addition of seats for cashiers? In Germany's all cashiers worked in comfortable, medically sound seats built into the cash register, and it struck me that it made no sense we can't do that anywhere in America. The amount of foot pain and even back trouble (from leaning over for long periods of time to scan groceries), are harsh bonuses of any retail cashier position in American and totally unnecessary.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Tue May 14, 2013 at 10:27:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  To contextualize further (5+ / 0-)

          I was almost the most senior employee after eight weeks on the job.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Tue May 14, 2013 at 10:30:08 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  cashiers (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Aren't a number of chains unionized, and do the unions ever bring this up?

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Tue May 14, 2013 at 10:58:39 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Wal-Mart and Dollar General aren't (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh, Christopher Walker, MichaelNY

            I don't think Dollar Tree or Walgreens are either. That's a huge chunk of the cashier workplace.

            Retail is the most hostile to unions, because its the site of the greatest rip-off of employees in terms of employee wage as a percentage of employee productivity. It also threatens their race to the bottom business model traditionally backed by a frivolous American culture that values cheapness over quality, and convenience over fairness.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Tue May 14, 2013 at 11:06:40 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Hand it to Perdue (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, MichaelNY

      1. Republican primary voters seem to love big business candidates who symbolize the American dream while simultaneously destroying it for everyone else.

      2. Despite his name, he may be seen as the outsider/insurgent candidate, going up against 3 sitting Congressmen and possibly the former SoS.

      3. He will bury the other candidates with his money if he self-funds.

      4. The three Congressmen each have a natural and equally-sized base in their districts.  The other 11/14ths of the state have no obvious allegiance (other than former constituents moved due to redistricting).

      5. The Perdue name is already well-known, although that may be a detriment in a GOP primary.

      However, Broun could probably work the crazy to his advantage, and Handel is a completely different type of candidate who could really change the dynamics.  

      Would be interesting to see Perdue vs. Nunn in the general...an all-legacy election.

      •  Maybe, but you could have said some of this in 04 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca, MichaelNY

        when Congressmen Johnny Isakson and Mac Collins faced some businessman named Herman Cain.  Obviously the two aren't exactly comparable but I don't think it's at all inevitable Perdue will stand out from the trio of GOP Congressmen running here.  

        23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

        by Jeff Singer on Tue May 14, 2013 at 01:54:07 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Funny. (9+ / 0-)

    After being criticized for waiting too long to make a decision, Sestak now becomes the first candidate for a senate race...in 2016. I'll bet Josh Shapiro is disappointed. I assumed he was going to run in 2016. Maybe he can have Casey's seat in 2018. I'm skeptical he'll run for another term.

    Its nice that Pennsylvania Democrats have a bench now.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Tue May 14, 2013 at 08:05:36 AM PDT

  •  Mystery of the Ghost Wards Revealed! (12+ / 0-)

    I was talking to a Madison alder the other day about redistricting and discovered the reason why there are so many empty wards in Wisconsin. Apparently, it is a combination of annexation and redistricting.

    When cities redistrict their municipal wards and aldermanic districts, they have to take into account the parts of neighboring unincorporated townships that are scheduled to be annexed by the city before the next redistricting, and decide which aldermanic district they will belong to after annexation. Until the annexation is complete, however, the ghost wards belong to the town, not the city, so the people who live there have their votes recorded with the town. The city will therefore appear to have a lot of wards that no one lives in, but those wards won't "go live" so to speak until after the annexation.

    You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

    by Gpack3 on Tue May 14, 2013 at 08:06:57 AM PDT

  •  the next target for gay marriage: Arizona? (10+ / 0-)

    it seems more likely than the Ohio story I posted yesterday. Rocky Mountain Poll shows Arizona in support of marriage equality, 55-35. to overturn Arizona's constitutional ban on gay marriage, we'd need to go the ballot initiative route. that would require signatures equal to 15% of the # of total votes cast in the last gubernatorial election, which would be 259,212. IMO there is no excuse not to do this by 2016 at the very latest.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Tue May 14, 2013 at 08:19:17 AM PDT

    •  Is there any law in AZ (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      that a measure cannot be on the ballot in consecutive cycles?  Don't know how good Rocky Mountain polling is and I'd expect opponents of SSM to have better returns on advertising here than they do on the west coast and new england region.  

    •  Encouraging, but this is not a good pollster (7+ / 0-)

      Rocky Mountain infamously gave Obama a two point lead in Arizona in early October, and Carmona a four point lead.  I'd wait and see if a much better pollster like PPP confirms this.  But things in the state look like they're heading in the right direction and if it looks at all winnable we should try by 2016.

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

      by Jeff Singer on Tue May 14, 2013 at 08:35:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I know (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        but I think they've done reasonably well in past cycles, and this is a pretty big lead. I would like PPP to confirm though, that I agree with.

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Tue May 14, 2013 at 03:15:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Not really (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I wrote a longer post going into detail about all the things wrong with them but it accidentally got deleted.  Here are links to Arizona Presidential and Senate from 2012, Gubernatorial and Senate polling from 2010, Presidential polling from 2008, and Gubernatorial and Senate polling from 2006.

          There are some common features for Rocky Mountain: they have way to many undecideds and won't poll close to the election.  In 2012, 2010, and 2006 they polled in early October and not again and found an absurd number of undecideds in each contest.  There are some other quirks: in 2010's Gubernatorial race it appears all the undecideds flocked to Glassman in the last month.  In 2008 they seem to have done their last poll in May.

          Ultimately, they really don't seem like a good pollster.  To be honest, I have almost no respect for public pollsters that decide to stop polling about a month or longer before the election unless it's clear the race is no longer interesting; it prevents us from getting any real gauge on their accuracy and lets them keep posting polls without any real accountability.  Mason-Dixon, Gallup, and (usually) Ras may suck but at least they put themselves on the line at the end.  

          Maybe Rocky Mountain's completely right and a strong majority of Arizonans favor same sex marriage.  But I'd wait for a much better pollster to tell us that before making any conclusions about public opinion in the state.  

          23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

          by Jeff Singer on Tue May 14, 2013 at 03:44:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  AZ was the first ballot measure victory (6+ / 0-)

      People forget that six years before Maine, Minnesota, Washington and Maryland, Arizona defeated a same-sex marriage ban in 2006.

      http://ballotpedia.org/...

      Two years later they did approve a more limited ban, so the victory was short lived.

      •  Which is why AZ shouldn't count (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, askew

        And when it comes to the 2006 victory, it was probably only because so many old people live there that they want to be get civil unions.  The amendment language makes it very clear that that would happen.

        "To preserve and protect marriage in this state, only a union between one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage by this state or its political subdivisions and no legal status for unmarried persons shall be created or recognized by this state or its political subdivisions that is similar to that of marriage."  (from wikipedia)

        So not only did they turn-out to be assholes in 2008, but our victory in 2006 was because of old people.

        Minnesota was the first state to beat an amendment, nuff said.  And those morons just made it that much easier to legalize same-sex marriage yesterday because the entire campaign apparatus just continued on from the November election.  Lots of people had their "Vote No" shirts and they just taped a piece of paper or something with the word "Yes" on it.

    •  Which leads me to once more ask the question (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

      which no one has yet been able to answer: what's the deal with Arizona? One of the most urban states in the country, non-southern, growing more diverse by the year, reasonably socially liberal (the only state pre-2012 to vote down a gay marriage ban)... yet republican-leaning, and where at least the white population seems to be trending towards the republicans. So, yeah - what's the deal?

      •  Cranky old people living in sheltered developments (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        with no kids or young people around them.  Those are the people who move to Arizona, and they outnumber everyone else, at least at the voting booth.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Tue May 14, 2013 at 10:00:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  they're anti-Obama, not anti-Democrat (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JGibson, MichaelNY

        He sued their state over a popular law.  Nobody should be surprised they're pissed, even though Obama's administration is constitutionally correct.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Tue May 14, 2013 at 10:36:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I wouldn't say its that popular (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gigantomachyusa

          it appeals to white racial resentments and conservatives, and some older, 7-11th generation hispanic voters, but I don't recall it being widely popular; it was too controversial and too hated by the minority community to be able to earn the wildly popular moniker.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Tue May 14, 2013 at 03:24:07 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It's pretty popular in Arizona (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            http://morrisoninstitute.asu.edu/...

            Taking all three provisions of SB 1070 tested in this study, 64% of all registered voters support all three provisions, while only 17% oppose all three.
            and..
            SB 1070 polls well in Arizona, winning approval ratings between 55% and 70%.
            http://articles.latimes.com/...

            It's more popular than Mitt Romney at least, which means there were Obama voters who support SB1070, which means there were likely some who would've voted for him if not for SB1070.

            20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

            by jncca on Tue May 14, 2013 at 03:47:36 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  GA-Sen: Nunn competitive against most candidates (13+ / 0-)

    http://bettergeorgia.com/...

    Kingston performs the best against her, with a 6% lead, followed by Broun with 3% lead. She ties with Gingrey and leads Handel by 7%, which is quite high, so I'm not sure if the numbers were transposed or not.

    27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:44:54 AM PDT

  •  Omaha's Mayoral Election (10+ / 0-)

    Today is Omaha's Mayoral election.

    I'm currently residing in Washington State for college, but voted for Mayor Suttle absentee. My mom told me this morning that turnout in Western Omaha is almost non-existent. Not sure about South Omaha, but that's where Suttle will win or lose.

  •  Just posting this (15+ / 0-)

    Awesomely bad spin coming out of Monday night's special election in the Canadian province of Labrador. It was a longtime Liberal seat that the Tories managed to pick up in the last election (defeating an incumbent), but then the Tory MP resigned... and ran again in the special! (They call `em "by elections" up north.)

    Obviously that kind of weirdness is even rarer down here, but predictably, the Tory got trounced (48-33). But I'm calling attention to this because the Tory spin is hilariously awful:

    In an unusual statement after Monday night's results were counted, the Conservatives said the results suggest Trudeau actually hurt Jones's performance in the byelection — the first seat that the Conservatives have lost since forming the government in 2006.

    "As we know, majority governments do not usually win byelections. In fact, Liberals have won the riding of Labrador in every election in history except for two, so we are not surprised with these results," Fred DeLorey, the party's director of communications said in a statement.

    "What is surprising is the collapse of the Liberal support during this byelection. When this byelection was called the Liberals had a 43-point lead in the polls," DeLory wrote.

    "Since electing Justin Trudeau as leader and having him personally campaign there, they have dropped 20 points in Labrador. That's a significant drop in only a few weeks," he said.

    "Labradorians were able to see firsthand how Justin Trudeau is in over his head."

    Hahahah! Oh yeah, keep it coming! (Trudeau, the son of legendary PM Pierre Trudeau, campaigned with the Liberal.)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Tue May 14, 2013 at 10:00:36 AM PDT

    •  Phill Gramm did something like this Tory (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      when he switched parties in 1983. He resigned from the House as a Dem, and then ran in the special as a Republican, and won.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/...

      Gay farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.88, -3.64, 2012 Daily Kos Elections Pick'Em runner-up.

      by WisJohn on Tue May 14, 2013 at 10:25:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Tories (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      brought this on themselves. Peter Penashue did not have to resign and fight this by-election, but he did.

      By the way the last Forum poll showed the the Liberals drop in support was because the NDP's voters came home, not because of any love for Peter "I can't explain what my job is" Penashue.

      I wish the NDP or the Liberals borrowed a page from the UK Tories' 2010 campaign and put billboards like this all over the riding. Except put a picture of Penashue with the words, "I BROKE THE LAW VOTE FOR ME!"

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Tue May 14, 2013 at 10:27:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  that's pretty weak (0+ / 0-)

      I suspect that 43 point margin poll was taken right after Penashue resigned and his problems were dominating the news, and his "closing the gap" just represented voters coming home to their usual party after the campaign. Sort of similar to what we just saw with Mark Sanford and the early poll that showed him behind.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Tue May 14, 2013 at 11:59:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  BC Votes 2013 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, ehstronghold

    http://www.cbc.ca/...

    Election Day in BC

    •  I'm (0+ / 0-)

      cautiously optimistic the NDP will pull this out with a majority government. Of course Liberal provincial governments have been pretty resilient in Canada in recent years so its possible the Liberals could pull out.

      I've been reading the seat predictions on the internet and it's assumed Christy Clark will lose her riding of Vancouver-Point Grey (UBC students will be key here).

      Also the Liberal held riding of Oak Bay-Gordon Head which the Liberals won by only a couple of hundred votes in 2009 has a good chance of staying Liberal thanks to a vote splitting between the NDP and Greens. (The Greens are running an extremely good candidate here and the NDP are already attacking him for helping the Liberals here.)

      Further more the NDP will most likely losing the riding of Chillwack-Hope which they gained in a by-election last year thanks to vote splitting between the Liberals and Conservatives. The Conservatives' vote has fallen province wide since then and that should be enough to haul the Liberals over the finish line in that riding.

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Tue May 14, 2013 at 10:43:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Can someone explain BC politics? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera

      I notice the NDP and Liberals dominate local politics with the Conservatives winning very little of the vote, yet in the last federal elections the Conservatives won most of the BC seats.  And looking at polling for today's elections NDP is expected to win with the Liberals winning the bulk of the remaining seats.  Why is this?

      •  The BC Libs are the centre-right party. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        OGGoldy

        People in BC that are members of the federal Tory party are members of the BC Libs. on the provincial level.

        Gay farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.88, -3.64, 2012 Daily Kos Elections Pick'Em runner-up.

        by WisJohn on Tue May 14, 2013 at 10:53:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  The (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, WisJohn, bumiputera

        BC Liberal party actually is a coalition of voters who vote Liberal and Conservative federally that are united on economic issues. AKA the "Free Market Coalition." That why you see Federal Tories like Stockwell Day and Chuck Strahl supporting Christy Clark who's a Federal Liberal herself.

        While the BC NDP is pretty much like their federal colleagues. Though I suppose some left leaning federal Liberal voters might vote for the NDP provincially.

        The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

        by ehstronghold on Tue May 14, 2013 at 10:59:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Provinical versus federal (0+ / 0-)

        The above comments pretty well explain it.

        Needless to say, it's kinda confusing to people in the U.S. who are used to parties being attached to each other at the national and state level.

        The BC Liberals aren't affiliated with the Liberal Party of Canada and have become the conservative option in BC.  It happened under Gordon Wilson I think.

        I'd recommend start with this, for some basic background:

        http://en.wikipedia.org/...

        According to Wikipedia, BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, & Quebec all have a provincial wing of the Liberal Party and a federal wing. Only 4 provinces have their provincial wings associated with the federal party...all Atlantic Canada.

      •  They do first past the post (0+ / 0-)

        so conservatives win because Liberals and NDP split the vote.  That's about all I know.

  •  Utah's West Valley Mayor Winder has an opponent (6+ / 0-)

    http://www.sltrib.com/...

    Margaret Petersen is the first to declare against Mike Winder, who's as I've mentioned before, has a reputation for ending up in scandals. She's a 17-year City Councilwoman who retired in 2007, and from talking to a few Utah progressive groups, she's "our" candidate. Perhaps not liberal, but moderate as opposed to Winder's craven conservatism. Those progressive groups have been hinting at a candidate strong enough to topple Winder, and it looks like Petersen is the one.

    Remember, West Valley is Utah's second-biggest city, and it's very diverse. The only reason it's always had Republican (though officially non-partisan) mayors is that we haven't bothered to contest the mayoral race. That changes this year.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Tue May 14, 2013 at 10:16:40 AM PDT

    •  It's going to start in the cities like this (6+ / 0-)

      If Democrats are ever going to play in Utah, they can't cede everything outside of Salt Lake City and Park City.

      •  Yeah, the cities are where it's at (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, James Allen, ArkDem14

        Though most of the cities in the Wasatch Front (the most populated area in the state) are conservative exburbs/suburb cities. West Valley City is just the lowest-hanging fruit. I'd say that Ogden (30% Latino) is the next best target.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Tue May 14, 2013 at 10:57:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  As a side note (0+ / 0-)

        I wish we had some kind of media organization that brought Utah Dem candidates to the public's attention. A lot of why the Utah Dems lose is because people don't know them, and that leads to voters thinking of them as "national" Democrats, rather than Utah Dems. Once people know Utah Dems (Ben McAdams, Jim Matheson) they seem to like them.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:41:00 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Didn't they run in more Democratic areas? (0+ / 0-)

          And Matheson is known because of his last name and is a super-talented politician. I don't want you to lose hope, but it's important to soberly appraise the situation in Utah, which has to be a long game. The reason Democrats seldom win in Utah is not what you say, but because they are not Republicans and can't possibly be conservative enough for the majority of Utahns.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:58:07 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  But Utahns like moderate Democrats (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Like Matheson and McAdams (and State Senate Minority Gene Davis, who is fairly well-known in his area, and barely survived the 2010 election, only winning probably because voters knew and respected him.)

            And as I've detailed in my Utah elections diary, there were several close legislature elections last year. In most of them, the Dem had either no name recognition (a few didn't even show up in a google search), or middling recognition as compared to their opponent's incumbency power. And yes, most of those close elections were in areas that should be Democratic-leaning.

            So something to boost name recognition would've helped those candidates.

            Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

            by Gygaxian on Tue May 14, 2013 at 10:23:09 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  And I kind have a love-hate relationship with Utah (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            politics, especially Utah Dem stuff. On the one hand, I'm familiar with it and like the dynamics. On the other hand, I alternate between having no hope and wanting a hail mary (would it be a hail moroni in this context?) pass, and being a hard-nosed pragmatic type who's willing to use the conservadems to win what few scraps we can win.

            Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

            by Gygaxian on Tue May 14, 2013 at 10:36:47 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  You have to be willing to use conservadems (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Gygaxian

              Even sane Republicans are better than people who are really extreme. Do whatever is reasonably possible in any given situation.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Tue May 14, 2013 at 11:27:38 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I know, I'm just frustrated. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                I mean, it's not like we have it like you guys in New York, where you may have a current trend of moderate heroism or even conservadem inclinations, but at least you have liberal wings of the party that hold some power.

                Besides one surprisingly progressive County Mayor, Conservadems are really all we have in terms of successful officials (and that's not much at that), and that's depressing.

                Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

                by Gygaxian on Wed May 15, 2013 at 09:42:34 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

  •  FL-Gov: Quotes like these... (5+ / 0-)

    is why the party hasn't fully embrace Crist yet, and are still looking at Nelson.

    http://www.tampabay.com/...

    Crist's eight-minute speech drew an enthusiastic response from the 300 activists gathered for the annual Kennedy-King fundraising gala for the Hillsborough County Democratic Party. It was a healthy, but hardly overwhelming crowd that suggested Crist can't expect a coronation should he jump into the Democratic race for governor.

    "Everybody's just kind of watching, but I think there's genuine enthusiasm for Bill Nelson," said former state Education Commissioner and one-time U.S. Senate candidate Betty Castor. "Everybody at this point is just watching."

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Tue May 14, 2013 at 10:19:41 AM PDT

  •  IA-Sen: SoS Matt Schultz meeting with DC GOPers (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin, James Allen, MichaelNY

    https://mobile.twitter.com/...

    Generally I'm pretty skeptical of Secretaries of State making the jump to Gubernatorial or Senate positions.  They usually do a lot behind the scenes and only get noticed during/ after close and nasty elections or when they screw up.  Also I believe that none of our current Senators or Governors were elected to their current position from the SoS' office (Though Joe Manchin did go right from SoS to Governor and Jan Brewer inherited the position by being next in line).  But hey, GOPers can't beat Braley with no one, and you never know, Schultz could have some good political skills or pick the right time to run.

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Tue May 14, 2013 at 10:29:47 AM PDT

    •  I'm still surprised (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff, MichaelNY

      Latham doesn't seem to be reconsidering. He's either decided he's happy in the House, or he wants to run in 2016, when Grassley retires, but 2016 will likely be a worse race for a Republican to run statewide, given how Iowa has gone at a presidential level.

      •  I'm betting the NRSC is still pushing him (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Latham does have plenty of time to reconsider and I wouldn't be completely shocked if he did.  But one reason for him stay in the House is he's very close to Boehner.  If Boehner stays on as Speaker in 2015 (which isn't something assured to happen) Latham may have a lot more influence than as a freshman Senator.  

        23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

        by Jeff Singer on Tue May 14, 2013 at 10:58:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Is this an appointed? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Tue May 14, 2013 at 03:25:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  no longer empty, but... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh

    list of sane, scientifically-proven reasons to oppose fluoridation?

    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

    by jncca on Tue May 14, 2013 at 10:33:03 AM PDT

    •  WI-Gov: Marquette finds Walker 51/45 approvals (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      abgin, James Allen, ArkDem14

      No link to the full poll yet but they've been tweeting out bits.  Here's that part.  This is usually what polls have found since he survived the recall; Walker's still pretty polarizing but a bit more consistently approve of him than disprove.  Interestingly the conservative pollster We Ask America just found him with a pretty bad 44/54 approval; we'll need more data to see who looks more accurate but I'm inclined to trust Marquette in general.  

      They also tested Presidential numbers.  Hillary Clinton easily wins the Democratic primary, Ryan edges Rubio 27-21.  Hillary leads by varying margins against all GOPers.  Against Ryan 48/44, Christie 46/40, Walker 50/42, Paul 51/37, Rubio 51/35.  President Obama is on positive ground with 53/43 approvals.  

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

      by Jeff Singer on Tue May 14, 2013 at 10:47:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  New York City's Goldwater districts. (7+ / 0-)

    According to the 1966 "America Votes" book (and thanks to demographicarmageddon for telling me about them), New York City had three Assembly Districts that went for Barry Goldwater in 1964.

    Two were in Queens--Assembly Districts 3 and 13.  They were adjacent, and covered the middle of the border with Brooklyn--Ridgewood, Glendale, Forest Park, Woodhaven.

     Amazingly, both voted for Democratic Assemblymen at the same time--Robert Whelan and Frederick Schmidt.

    Schmidt actually stayed in the New York Assembly, winning his last election in 1990.  He then won a countywide election for judge, and then ended up on the New York Supreme Court.

    According to this article after Schmidt's passing, "Schmidt, a Democrat, was successful in 1964 because he was the first of his party to run as a Democrat-Conservative, something that fellow state assembly members such as Anthony Seminerio (D-Richmond Hill) would later emulate."

    Only the Brooklyn District, more or less in Bay Ridge and Dyker Heights, voted for a Republican Assemblyman, Robert F. Kelly.  

    It looks like Kelly was eventually succeeded in the Assembly by Christopher Mega, who was succeeded by Florence Sullivan, who in turn lost her seat when the Democrats carved up Bay Ridge after 1980 into "five majority-Democrat districts".

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

    by Xenocrypt on Tue May 14, 2013 at 10:45:33 AM PDT

  •  WI: Marquette University Law School poll is out (7+ / 0-)

    link.

    Numbers in parentheses are from their last poll in March.

    Obama approval: 53-43(48-45)
    Walker approval: 51-45(50-44)

    Will be interesting to see if the last few days has any impact on Obama's numbers.

    There is a lot of 2016 stuff as well. Ryan is the top choice for Republicans in the state, not surprisingly. Clinton lead him 48-44, leads Christie 46-40, and leads Paul and Rubio by double digits.

  •  Two top administration officials... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, MichaelNY

    Who may be looking for new jobs soon: Atty. Gen. Eric Holder, who seems desperate to pass the buck on the AP scandal while appearing unable to escape being the center of controversy, and Press Secy. Jay Carney, whose attempts to explain, downplay, and reframe the three scandals-of-varying-proportion-and-basis-in-fact that have enveloped the Obama administration have been received with open derision and mockery.

    Who might President Obama tap to replace Holder or Carney? I can't imagine he'd take a sitting elected official to become his spokesman, but for attorney general, I'm less sure.

    •  Maybe Deval Patrick for AG (5+ / 0-)

      He's already leaving the Governorship, he's a former Justice Department official, and he and Obama are close.  Patrick may want to go back into private life but if Holder left Patrick would be a good choice if he wanted the job.  

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

      by Jeff Singer on Tue May 14, 2013 at 11:05:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  More likely Holder steps aside (4+ / 0-)

      than Carney.

      I've sen Carney's press conferences the last few days, and I think he has done as well as can be expected. Any press secretary is going to face the same thing in a similar situation. But he has been serving as PS for over two years so maybe he steps down.

      But Holder has been there the entire admin and as AG as had to deal with a lot of controversy. Supposedly, he said after the 2012 election, he would stay one more year.

    •  I would love to predict the next AG... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, MichaelNY

      But President Obama has gone with some more unorthodox nominees for cabinet positions, historically. For example, I was certain that Granholm and/or Gregoire would have some kind of position in the second term cabinet.

      Ideally, I'd like someone like Granholm, Gregoire, or Patrick for AG. Granholm might be too much of a lightning rod in today's political climate, and I'm not sure that there's a precedent for nominating a cabinet member who had previously hosted an opinion-based television show. Someone like Gregoire would be relatively uncontroversial, she was an early supporter of the Obama campaign in 2008, and I've heard her name mentioned for a lot of different positions.

      19, FL-07 (school), MD-07 (home). UCF sophomore, politically ambitious, vocally liberal--what else could you need to know?

      by tqycolumbia on Tue May 14, 2013 at 11:28:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Holder isn't going anywhere. The GOP and media (8+ / 0-)

      have been after him for years with no basis. The leak investigation is really serious since there was national security leaks and there is a reason AP records were subpoenaed. The press can bitch all they want about the supeona but the AP should never have published that article. It's almost eerily similar to the Plame leak except now liberals are in favor of leaking covert operations/national security info.  Plus, Holder recused himself from the entire investigation.

      And the media has behaved like jackasses towards Carney and Gibbs before him since 2009. They always behave like this towards Democratic Press Secretarys. Putting someone else in the position won't do a damn thing to change the media's behavior.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Tue May 14, 2013 at 12:11:50 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Also there's the fact that the blockbuster email (5+ / 0-)

        the GOP were hoping meant something was actually doctored: http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

        "Crying silently. Children cry because they want attention, because they're hurt, or afraid. When they cry silently it's because they just can't stop." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Tue May 14, 2013 at 12:39:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  All very Romneyesque isn't it? (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, askew, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

          They ran a whole presidential campaign taking everything out of context with select editing so this should surprise nobody.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Tue May 14, 2013 at 12:43:06 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Benghazi is a blatant partisan witch-hunt (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          GloFish, jncca, MichaelNY

          The IRS scandal and AP kerfuffle are far more serious, I think. Polls will likely bear that out.

          •  I can't bring myself to care about the IRS (3+ / 0-)

            scandal.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Tue May 14, 2013 at 03:28:01 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  ??? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              It's by far the worst action of the Obama administration.  They went after groups based on politics; it's Nixonian (not that I think Obama knew of or approved it, but ultimately the buck stops with him).

              I don't see how anyone couldn't be outraged; it transcends party.

              20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

              by jncca on Tue May 14, 2013 at 03:48:54 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Yes, it really is terrible (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Darth Jeff

                And I'm sure that when it's clearly established just who was responsible, all of those folks are going to be forced to resign or fired. And they had better be.

                And the electoral connection is something that was posted on Politicalwire today: Nate Silver claims that the IRS scandal is likely to affect the 2014 elections by motivating Republicans who just might have stayed home. If that's so, seeing the president handle it right could make a marginal difference with some independents, and in very close elections, so many things could make the difference that this conceivably could.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Tue May 14, 2013 at 04:39:30 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  The IRS doesn't represent the Obama Administration (7+ / 0-)

                You trying to link the Obama Administration to the IRS is only playing into what the Republicans want. The facts are still mostly unknown so let's leave the hyperbole and the conspiracy theories to the other party until we have more information on the what exactly happened.

                21, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco, Terracotta, and Cultural Gem of Green Country!); Currently studying in Madrid, Spain

                by gigantomachyusa on Tue May 14, 2013 at 04:56:29 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  All executive branch functions are linked to the (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  president.  And more importantly for this site, voters believe that all executive branch functions are linked to the president.

                  20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  politicohen.com
                  Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                  by jncca on Tue May 14, 2013 at 05:38:26 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  No voters don't think that (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    ArkDem14, MichaelNY, gigantomachyusa

                    Voters actually do distinguish between government bureaucracies and elected leadership.

                    They complain about bureaucracies all the time without often holding it against electeds.

                    Right now the best information is that the WH knew nothing of this IRS stuff until it hit the news late last week.  That's going to be good enough to make the story peter out.

                    There is a lot of misunderstanding IMO regarding how the public responds to alleged scandals.  I think most people are actually pretty skeptical because they see accusations as partisan and melodramatic if there isn't real evidence of some kind of corruption by high-level people.  Look at all the scandals over the years in so many Administrations, hardly any ever mattered in an election.

                    These are looking pretty small-time in the end.  The AP phone logs probe isn't even a scandal, the Administration assertively stands by what it's doing.  The IRS thing looks increasingly like bureaucratic bungle.  And Benghazi has long been nothing.

                    And all this is happening in May 2013.  Everyone ignores this timing, which is critical.  The odds that this will drag on for 18 months are nil.  Recessions and wars drag on for 18 months, and the very rare truly major scandals can do so, but otherwise this kind of stuff peters out to no effect.

                    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:18:02 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Not always at all (0+ / 0-)
                      Voters actually do distinguish between government bureaucracies and elected leadership.
                      I daresay, many voters blame increases in health insurance prices on Obamacare.

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:30:58 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Health insurance costs are actually improved (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        There is short-run decline in cost increases, and health care experts are increasingly expecting the cost curve to flatten even more.

                        This is only very subtle and is seen over a long time in individual pocketbooks, so ordinary voters won't really recognize it.

                        But there have been a string of articles in recent weeks about macroeconomic health care costs finally coming under control.

                        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                        by DCCyclone on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:46:04 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

              •  Well I don't (3+ / 0-)

                What am I supposed to be outraged that tea party groups were scrutinized more? It doesn't bother than the IRS selectively did its job more intensely in some areas, after all that's a type of bias that exists in any institution in any circumstance. What's more, has there been any allegation that the IRS unfairly outright denied such tax exempt statuses to any group based on political affiliation, etc? If so then it's just a big nothingburger that amounts to some of the agency's officials being a little more ornery to people they don't like (and for obvious, unavoidable reasons). Please expand on any action or scandal that surpasses this.

                Also, quit with the hyperbole like gigantomachyusa said, it's highly annoying and unproductive, as is sententious moralizing. It'd also help to quit tying it to Obama, as it is highly unlikely that Obama is personally involved in every decision made by the numerous branches of government and millions of employees therein, with their hundreds of thousands of policy decisions and in-office dynamics that exist well outside direct reach of the White House. There are almost certainly a few degrees of separation between Obama and this scandal, and all you're doing is fueling a GOP propaganda meme which wants the scandal to specifically be associated with Obama or be the fault of Obama.

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Tue May 14, 2013 at 06:35:45 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I mean for more intuitive takes (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  DCCyclone

                  on the issue (and why it won't be an issue a year from now:

                  http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

                  And more importantly:

                  http://www.bloomberg.com/...

                  The Internal Revenue Service, under pressure after admitting it targeted anti-tax Tea Party groups for scrutiny in recent years, also had its eye on at least three Democratic-leaning organizations seeking nonprofit status.

                  One of those groups, Emerge America, saw its tax-exempt status denied, forcing it to disclose its donors and pay some taxes. None of the Republican groups have said their applications were rejected.

                  Progress Texas, another of the organizations, faced the same lines of questioning as the Tea Party groups from the same IRS office that issued letters to the Republican-friendly applicants. A third group, Clean Elections Texas, which supports public funding of campaigns, also received IRS inquiries.

                  It seems to me more like an inept attempt to be tougher in granting tax exempt status (in a very abused system), which started by trying to target many of the sketchiest or potentially problematic groups popping up everywhere, out of nowhere, under tea party monikers. This is why I will not take the tone of idealistic outrage on the issue that seems to be expected, and other than as a tool for Republicans to turn out partisan Republicans, this will have no impact 18 months from now, electorally.

                  And apologies to David for continuing on this subject too long. I won't say anything else.

                  "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                  by ArkDem14 on Tue May 14, 2013 at 07:37:07 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

      •  I totally disagree on the AP issue (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GloFish, MichaelNY

        Seizure of phone records without notice is a grave violation of the First Amendment, IMO. And the AP did nothing but its job.

        •  This is so utterly outside the scope of DKE (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DrPhillips

          I mean, even cabinet appointments mostly is. But come on. This comment has nothing to do with electoral politics.

          Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

          by David Nir on Tue May 14, 2013 at 12:52:08 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I was replying to a comment... (0+ / 0-)

            On the exact same subject.

            •  "Someone else is off-topic" (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Obviously doesn't make it okay to go off topic. The right response is, "Hey, this is off topic for DKE."

              Secondly, I'm not going to respond to every single derail-y comment in a derail-y thread. When I call a thread out, I'm calling everyone out who is engaging in a derail, not just the person I'm replying to.

              Also, you opened the door to this by speculating about cabinet appointments, which only rarely impinges on electoral matters and at this point is super-speculative anyway. I'd really like to avoid that topic unless and until there's an actual cabinet opening and at least some slightly plausible belief that Obama could tap an elected official or potential electoral up-and-comer.

              Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

              by David Nir on Tue May 14, 2013 at 03:24:59 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  It becomes relevant if taken together (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, MichaelNY

            All this stuff serves to create a toxic environment for Democratic candidates. But as I said elsewhere, we can guarantee the GOP will over play their hand so I'm not prepared to start with the hand-wringing just yet.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Tue May 14, 2013 at 12:57:57 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Exactly (0+ / 0-)

              And if the president is seen as the enemy of the media, that just might affect reporting about him. I think that could have some electoral effects. A thin reed? I'm not sure.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Tue May 14, 2013 at 04:40:58 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  I don't think these stories can do that (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              I think in these early and tough days there is a greatly exaggerated sense of how much these things really matter.  If on the merits these things can't be tied to the White House, and there isn't persuadable evidence of actual corruption, this stuff peters out pretty fast.

              I'll repeat what I said in some other comments, that it's awful tough for a story to drag on for 18 months into the next election from spring of an off-year.  Even the notion of a "toxic environment" doesn't develop so easily.  It's May 2013, the timing of this is not good for the GOP.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:21:44 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Voters won't see things your way (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stephen Wolf, MichaelNY, jncca, sacman701

          Voters have always overwhelmingly supported the Patriot Act and drones and all else, accepting without pause a certain amount of law enforcement intrusion for the sake of national security.  That's one thing about the post-9/11 environment that, rightly or wrongly, remains the same, even as wars have become rightly unpopular.

          That the AP phone logs were probed as part of a leak investigation and the Administration assertively insists the AP story endangered national security, voters will give the Administration the benefit of doubt.

          And, if you haven't noticed, so far the Beltway GOP is being quite circumspect about the AP story compared to the IRS and Benghazi.  They know this is about finding and punishing a leaker and stopping future leaks as part of national security, and that's something all the GOP hawks support on the merits.  They don't want to discourage the Administration from doing this.  That means they're going to remain circumspect about this event, and that limits the political effect.

          And of course I'll repeat what I've said in other comments, that this being May 2013 makes it of little or no electoral value to the GOP.  These stories just don't look like ones to have 18-month shelf lives.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:29:44 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, in political terms, I think the IRS scandal (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, LordMike, MichaelNY

        has the biggest legs for the GOP. Even if it wasnt ordered from higher officials, it was a dumb thing to do and it doesnt appear the higher ups really dealt with it effectively enough, and possibly didnt even tell Congress when they knew.

        There is little house cleaning, Obama himself can do, but the post of commissioner is already basically vacant. Getting a permanent commissioner would be a big step, although it would obviously have to be someone the GOP trusted, a Robert-Gates type figure. Maybe someone who worked for a Republican on the Finance Committee.

      •  Please substantiate that (0+ / 0-)

        At least provide a link. You're saying one or more agent's lives were directly put at risk by a story AP reported?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Tue May 14, 2013 at 04:36:23 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  The Holder Charge is Ridiculous (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, MichaelNY, askew

      For one thing, he recused himself from the investigation and as CBS is reporting, the WH had nothing to do with the leak investigation.

      Number two, as Ryan Lizza tweeted, the full sequence of events can be read as:

      Recap: GOP calls on Holder to investigate leaks. Holder appoints US Attorney. US Att. subpoenas AP records. GOP calls on Holder to resign.
      Add to that the fact that - at least so far, there is little evidence anything actually wrong was being done in the leak investigation (though obviously that could change).
  •  Just voted for Omaha mayor (9+ / 0-)

    at 1:00 pm.  There was only one other person there at the time, but I was ballot #102.  By comparison, in the primary I voted at roughly the same time and was ballot #18...so hopefully that's a good sign (I live in a very liberal precinct)

    27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Tue May 14, 2013 at 11:34:47 AM PDT

  •  NY-13: Former Governor Paterson hints (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, abgin, MichaelNY

    at running for Rangel's seat.

    http://politicker.com/...

    27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Tue May 14, 2013 at 12:00:09 PM PDT

    •  Anything to get Rangel out, he's awful. (0+ / 0-)

      And corrupt.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Tue May 14, 2013 at 12:14:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Maybe he'll split the black vote (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      David Nir, gabjoh

      And allow Adriano Espaillat to slip through finally.

      Though, if he did win a primary, he would fulfill the craving for blind Congressmen that we've had since Rabbi Dennis Shulman ran against Scott Garrett in 2008.

      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Tue May 14, 2013 at 12:26:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Rangel vs Espaillat was not a clear case (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, bumiputera

        of vote divided by race.

        Rangel is a hispanic surname. Even for a hispanic person it is easier to recognize Rangel as a hispanic surname than Espaillat (sounds more french or catalan).

        I see perfectly a good number of latinos voting for Rangel as one of them.

        •  Rangel has an interesting backstory (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, gabjoh

          His father was Puerto Rican, his mother African-American.  However, he barely knew his father, and chooses to identify much more with his African-American heritage.

          As for Espaillat, he is of Dominican ancestry, and that group is increasing in numbers and overall prominence in Harlem and the Bronx.  Espaillat's close loss was seen as an indication of that (as well as Rangel's own problems of course).

          •  In the case of Espaillat his image talk more about (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera

            his hispanic origin than his surname. And surely is well known personally in the area. Also his name, Adriano, helps identifiying him as of hispanic origin. Adriano sound spanish (also can be italian or portuguese).

            I find a little about the surname Espaillat and I see this:

            http://www.ancestry.com/...

            The link talk about catalan or occitan origin.

            Espaillat sound not spanish. And also is not a common surname in hispanic areas. It would be easy that an unfaimiliar hispanic person link not this surname to another hispanic person.

            Rangel is a more spanish sounding surname and also is more common in hispanic areas. I would see easily many hispanic people taking also Rangel as one of them.

            •  Catalan is not Spanish (0+ / 0-)

              Nor is it even a dialect of Spanish.
              Occitan is not a dialect, by the way, of either French of Spanish.

              They are both distinct languages in their own right.

              In fact, Catalan has higher lexical similarity with Italian than it does with Spanish (which ties with Portuguese).

              Just because these languages are spoken within a country does not mean they are dialects - even if they're facially similar. Is Portuguese a Spanish dialect? Absolutely not. I'd invite you to tell anyone in Barcelona that they are speaking Spanish, they'll tar and feather you in the streets. Given you live in Spain, I'm surprised you don't know this.

              And just for breadth, languages that are spoken in Spain and Portugal that are commonly thought of by outsiders as dialects are:

              Aragonese
              Asturian
              Extremaduran
              Fala
              Galician
              Mirandese

              There are others, ofcourse, and I could broaden the list to include France, which is actually to a large degree multilingual as well.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Wed May 15, 2013 at 02:08:11 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Obviously I know that are separate languages (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                bumiputera, MichaelNY

                I see not where you seems to see that I think the contrary. Also my biggest time in Spain has been about one week.

                Both are different laguages inside the family of the latin languages. Catalan, Occitan, French, Portuguese, Spanish, Italian... is like to tell English, German, Dutch, Swedish,... inside the Germanic family.

                This is why Im telling that Espaillat sound not as a Hispanic surname, and that Rangel would be easier to identify as a hispanic surname than Espaillat for a hispanic person that is unfamiliar with him.

                The point is that many people, especially in America, including LatinAmerica, know not this differences, and can be confused some times. Catalan surnames like Serra, like Martí, like Puig, are considered as hispanic many times both have not his origin in the Spanish language, but Espaillat is a rare surname, and mean nothing in spanish, then, in a city with the diversity of New York, some people can have bigger trouble identifiying the surname with a hispanic person. In other places, like the Dominican Republic surely the hispanic population would identify Espaillat as a hispanic surname only by the environment.

                I wish you can understand better the point of my comment this time.

                 

              •  about the latin languages (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                bumiputera

                First to say that I have personal friends from Catalonia, that are catalan speakers, that I visited the country as being so near of my birth place, an them never feather me in the streets. I have a lot of close points with them.

                You are right in something but not in all. Ethnologue.com presents some times not a very clear picture of which are the languages and of which are the dialectes.

                http://www.ethnologue.com/...

                In the table, as example:

                - The divissions inside the group of the Astur-Leonese would be dialects.

                - The divissions inside the group of the Portuguese-Galician would be separate languages, despite until recently (some decades) the portuguese and the galician were considered a single language (they understand so well between them).

                - The divissions inside the group of the Castillian (Spanish) would be also dialects.

                - The divissions inside the group of the langue d'Oc (Occitan) would be also dialects.

                - The divissions inside the group of the Sardinian would be also dialects.

                - The divissions inside the group of the Raethian would be also separate languages.

                There is a recent tendence to divide more and more the language, whitout a strong basis. This tendence is being promoted by some governments to dilute the de specificity of the biggest nations without an independent space. It is notorious the spanish effort to divide the catalan language in new divissions (valencian,...) only by political purposes of dividing their territory. Fortunately I see Ethnologue.com fall not into this strategy.

            •  We really don't go so much by surnames here (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              abgin

              People recognize him as Hispanic because he's part of the Hispanic community in Washington Heights.

              There are Hispanics with names like Hayles and Geisel. The fact that someone on their paternal line came from Jamaica or Germany doesn't change their cultural heritage.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Wed May 15, 2013 at 02:33:22 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  It is logical (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                There are cases like W Richardson. This cases need some aditional knowledge about the local political life, but are very possible.

                And I think that some hispanic person that hear Rangel, should recognize him as one of them. Especially if there are recent inmigrants or their closest family.

        •  Most white people in the southwest would know (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, MichaelNY

          that it is Hispanic as well. Rangel is the last name of a very prominent judge in San Antonio that I know.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Tue May 14, 2013 at 11:56:14 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Glad someone remembers (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, CF of Aus

        Have some friends whose family's close with him - he seemed like a good guy, but didn't run a really forceful campaign at all.

        I think Scott Garrett's continued existence in Congress is one of the most incredibly frustrating ones (and I'm not just saying that because I'm from the area).

        You'll learn a lot, but it won't be worth it. | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | MO-05: come for the jazz, stay for the burnt ends | Yard signs don't vote.

        by gabjoh on Tue May 14, 2013 at 10:34:39 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I would encourage him to run (0+ / 0-)

      And I would encourage Rangel to retire.

      •  Why encourage a corrupt dude to run? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Tue May 14, 2013 at 12:53:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I missed he was condemned (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        by the time I was so focused in the weak health of my father for following well all the news.

        In this case no chance for D Paterson, or at least a lot less chance.

    •  I thought his Dad and Rangel were tight? (0+ / 0-)

      28, Male, MA-07 (hometown MI-06)

      by bumiputera on Tue May 14, 2013 at 02:06:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Crooked former governor running for Congress? (4+ / 0-)

      Where have I heard that before?

      You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

      by Gpack3 on Tue May 14, 2013 at 02:06:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NC Redistricting: Good news? (5+ / 0-)

    http://www.wral.com/...

    The case challenging Congressional districts 4 and 12 (and four legislative districts) is going to the NC Superior Court.

    WRAL says this is good news for Democrats.  I can't really follow all the legal stuff that's been happening in this case... maybe some of our amateur redistricting lawyers here at DKE can explain it to me.  I was under the impression that a redistricting case like this would stay at the Supreme Court but now it's down in trial court... is it a new lawsuit?  Could a trial court actually strike down a redistricting map?

  •  analysis on California congressional districts (0+ / 0-)

    going forward, does anyone see the districts as this:

    30 Leaning to Strongly Safe D Seats
    11 Districts Winnable for either Party
    12 Safe Republican Seats

    I calculated this on two party registration numbers. The most republican district held by a democrat is Scott Peters (51.2%) and the least republican district held by a republican is David Valadao's (40.7%) in between that are nine districts.

    Beginning with McKeon's district which is 52.4% Republican to Duncan Hunter's 63.9% republican districts are twelve safe R seats.

    On the other side, everything ranging from Jim Costa's 60.3% D seat to Barbara Lee's 89.3% D seat are 30 safe D seats.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Tue May 14, 2013 at 12:43:49 PM PDT

    •  I think McNerney's seat is Likely D now (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      thanks to his incumbency and Hispanic growth, so I'm not sure that one is winnable.

      And technically Brownley and Capps have winnable seats but they don't outside of 2010-style mega-waves.

      Also, McKeon's will be winnable in 2016.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Tue May 14, 2013 at 12:54:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Stu Rothenberg is so excited he can't help himself (6+ / 0-)

    He is really letting his inner republican shine lately.  Now, he's claiming that not only will all the Obama scandals take down Dems in the midterms, but Markey in the MA special election, too...

    http://www.rollcall.com/...

    It's all good news for John McCain.

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Tue May 14, 2013 at 01:02:09 PM PDT

  •  Maybe Sestak announcing will (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GaleForceBurg, gabjoh

    give Feingold a nudge to the do same.  That dude needs as much time for fundraising as fucking possible.  For Feingold to have enough money, he should have announced the moment Johnson got the check mark.  Hell, he should have announced when this poll came out from PPP September 21st showing his pathetic-self trailing by 11% to some jackass nobody named Ron Johnson.  If you're really curious to see how lame Feingold was in 2010, here's his Pollster average.  (I have a very bitter love-hate relationship with him.)

  •  MI-Sen/08: Rogers still in running for FBI (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, James Allen, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

    A while ago, Congressman and potential Senate candidate Mike Rogers' name was floated for head of the FBI or CIA.  The CIA spot has been filled and I hadn't heard anything about the FBI position in months but apparently he's still in the running: the FBI Agents Association just endorsed him for the job.  

    If he got it, Democrats would probably be pretty happy; he has the potential to be a serious candidate against Gary Peters.  Romney won 51-48 in his district so it's far from out of reach for us.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Tue May 14, 2013 at 01:38:04 PM PDT

    •  otoh, how would Democrats feel (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff, jncca, MichaelNY, askew, bumiputera

      about a partisan Republican leading the FBI?

      •  I don't think there'd be huge problems (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Unless powerful Democrats seriously think he'd use his office for partisan politics or something.  I'm sure there'd be some complaining on blogs and such, but nothing that would stop his nomination or cause long-term damage to Obama.  

        23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

        by Jeff Singer on Tue May 14, 2013 at 01:59:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  He was an agent (6+ / 0-)

        Plus, he's pretty low-key in Congress, so I can see him being approved without much trouble.

        27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

        by DrPhillips on Tue May 14, 2013 at 02:06:05 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I doubt he'd be especially embarrassing (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        Leading the FBI has been a tumultuous job. It used to be the custom (post-Hoover, of course) to appoint federal appellate judges to do it--presumably because they were detached/above political considerations--but that also meant appointing people with limited administrative ability, and led to the twin disasters of William Sessions and Louis Freeh. Freeh actually spent most of his time in office investigating Bill Clinton, the man who appointed him to his post! Little things like, oh, looking into Islamic terrorists in the U.S. and keeping our secrets safe took a backseat to the adventures of Bill Clinton's penis. Bush went the other way by appointing Mueller, a career FBI man. One of his better appointments, and a good precedent.

        Rogers would signal a big change. I don't think a political officeholder has ever been appointed to the job. He's probably qualified and if we could be sure he wouldn't go all Freeh on us, would send a good message. Plus, we'd have another seat to fight over.

      •  They'd be sad (0+ / 0-)

        Is there a candidate with law enforcement experience and a solid record on civil liberties?  Maybe Jim Himes comes the closest?

    •  It would be more benefit since the (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      since the point of opening a competitive US House district, than since the point of the senate race.

      In this senate race he would be a Generic mid level officer, and the GOP has a good number of them in Michigan.

      But still, I have not clear the benefit of this movement. I would not give to the Republicans this advantage.

    •  No way in hell (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bumiputera

      No way in hell the Obama administration would pick someone as much as a partisan hack as Mike Rogers, nor should they for the sake of the department, and I live in this guy's district, no less.  Little would else would make me happier to see him leave, but not at the expense of the FBI.  We shouldn't be rewarding bad behavior, and Mike is one of the most disingenuous, partisan hacks you'll find, and has never found a camera he doesn't like.  He disgusts me for his phoniness.

    •  The only candidates we have (0+ / 0-)

      Would be from Ingham County (Lansing); Gretchen Whitmer has already ruled out running for federal office, and the trio of State Reps are all in their first term. I'm not sure how great our chances would be if that seat opened up.

      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Tue May 14, 2013 at 08:40:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Sestak (0+ / 0-)

    I must admit. Sestak's move surprises me. I had assumed that his main reason for running for Senate in 2010 was to position himself for a Presidential candidacy in 2016. But now what is the appeal of becoming a freshman Senator at 65?

  •  CA St Legislature, quick rundown (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff, ArkDem14, lordpet8, Joe Cooper

    Vulnerable Seats in the Senate:

    Lou Correa (D -- Orange County)'s seat is very vulnerable to GOP pickup, but Anthony Cannella (R -- Merced/Salinas) has a vulnerable seat as well, although he's running for re-election.
    Cannella's is probably D+6, but low Hispanic turnout benefits him.
    Correa's may be D+; it was R+2 in 2008 but is only 1/3 White.
    In addition, the GOP gains one seat from redistricting.

    Vulnerable Seats in the Assembly:
    Democrats Rudy Salas (AD32), Steve Fox (AD36), Sharon Quirk-Silva (AD65), and Al Muratsuchi (AD66).
    2008 PVI:
    Salas: EVEN, Kings County + Hispanic Kern County, so midterm dropoff is a major issue.
    Fox: R+4, North County Los Angeles.  He's the most vulnerable.
    Quirk Silva: R+2, North Orange County.
    Muratsuchi: D+3, Southwest LA County.

    For Republicans it's Mike Morrell (AD40), Jeff Gorell (AD44), and Eric Linder (AD60).
    Morrell: Rancho Cucamonga, Redlands, Highland.  EVEN.
    Gorell: Thousand Oaks, Camarillo, Oxnard.  D+2.
    Linder: Riverside and suburbs.  R+1.  

    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

    by jncca on Tue May 14, 2013 at 02:45:04 PM PDT

  •  Why PA probably isn't the GOP '16 path to victory (8+ / 0-)

    Lat week, Amy Walter published a piece that got a lot of attention at DKE.  She suggested that the GOP's path to an electoral college victory runs through Pennsylvania.  A lot of people here took issue with it, especially her claim that the GOP could win 45% in the Philly media market to win statewide.  Nate Cohn at the New Republic also offers a nice rebuttal:

    Pennsylvania’s always close, but it has been blue in six consecutive presidential elections. Walter’s math highlights why that streak is likely to continue. From Walter’s perspective, the GOP needs “just” 45 percent in the Philadelphia media market, but that’s not going to happen—not without a decisive Republican victory. The city proper, which comprises about 35 percent of the Philadelphia media market and is a well-oiled Democratic machine, gave Obama 85 percent of the vote last November. In 2010, Democratic gubernatorial and senate candidates received 83 and 84 percent of Philadelphia, even while losing statewide.

    If Republicans want to win 45 percent of the Philadelphia media market, they’ll need about 60 percent in the Philadelphia suburbs. That’s not happening, either. The last Republican to come close was Senator Arlen Specter, a pro-choice, long-time incumbent who only received 56 percent of the two-party vote in the Philly burbs in an uncompetitive 2004 contest.

    Pennsylvania is a diverse state—too diverse for the GOP to win by making narrow, concentrated gains among any single demographic group or region. Toomey and Governor Tom Corbett didn’t approach Walter’s benchmark in the Philadelphia media market, but they won with broad gains across the state. The necessity of a broad coalition could make Pennsylvania a tougher target for Republicans than more homogenous battlegrounds, where big gains among a single, overrepresented group could turn the state red.

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Tue May 14, 2013 at 03:02:50 PM PDT

    •  I think Christie is the only one who (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      redrelic17, MichaelNY

      could make PA competitive. And even then, he would lose to Clinton.

      It's really hard for me to see Hillary losing PA and I dont see any non-Christie candidates having much appeal in more moderate parts  of PA.

      •  I'd say PA is in Christie's path to 270, but I (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, bythesea, R30A, MichaelNY, LordMike

        don't think it's in anybody else's.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Tue May 14, 2013 at 03:23:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  He'd almost have to win it (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        to offset what would likely be severe losses in the upper Midwest. The "nice" states probably wouldn't cotton to him at all, because of his personality as well as his being an East Coaster. Michigan might be a bit easier, but other than that...

        Since it's unlikely he'll be nominated it doesn't matter all that much, but it would be interesting to see what effects he'd have as a candidate. I strongly doubt Rubio, Ryan, Walker, etc. would shake things up very much at the top of the ticket, they'd all basically be generic R. Christie could be a little more unpredictable.

      •  maybe Pres nominee Ted Cruz will ask him to (0+ / 0-)

        be his VP

      •  Maybe, but his public image in summer 2016... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        ...could be anything.

        Don't assume it will be any good come then.  Except for Hillary and Biden, every potential 2016 candidate is unknown to most ordinary voters.  There's plenty of opportunity until then for candidates to improve or damage their own images, by events in their states and the country and campaigns alike.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:05:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I was just looking at PA's PVI. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      It's been fairly consistently a few points more Democratic than the country in every Presidential election since 1948, when it went for Tom Dewey.  

      I think the highest PVI since then, by quite a bit, was in 1984, when Mondale got 46%, making PA about D+5.5, I think.

      The lowest PVI since then was in 1996, when Clinton and Dole were very close to their national percentages.  Even then, it was probably D+0.4 or so by two-party share.  Oh, actually, in 1976 it might have been D+0.3 compared to the country.

      That's a pretty close range, although I eyeballed a few of the elections.

      In 2012, it was about D+0.7.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

      by Xenocrypt on Tue May 14, 2013 at 04:52:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  IRS Scandal and 2014 (6+ / 0-)

    The IG report is out, and according to Jon Ward of HuffPo, it backs up the IRS assertion that there was not a political bias in review of the tea party applications.

    On the flip side of this, Kasie Hunt reports that Chuck Grassley suspects the IRS was getting pressure from the Obama campaign or WH to do this, and his views on this are informed by what Nixon did.

    The IG report wont be the last word on this. And it shouldnt be. And the report is still plenty critical, as it ought to be, clearly what the IRS was doing wasnt right, whatever the reason. The appropriate people need to be fired, and they need to make some clear changes to the law/guidelines.

    But if further investigation basically confirms the IG report, I wonder if a lot of the Nixon allegations/conspiracy theories start to hurt the GOP, rather than help. Obviously, we'll have to see what happens, and I'm not saying the IRS scandal wont have a positive effect for GOP anyway in the midterms. No one like the IRS, and it fits the government overreach narrative, even without any WH involvement.

    But I just thought I would offer that as an alternative to the more pessimistic view of Rothenberg and others.

    •  This is all going to peter out to no effect (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, jj32, MetroGnome, sacman701

      In a few months, all this stuff will be recognized as meaningless politically beyond the news cycles it occupied.

      Stuff the level of what these fake "scandals" are just doesn't have much shelf life.  It's May 2013.  It takes something bigger to hurt the President's party in a midterm so far away.  A long recession does the trick!  So does an increasing quagmire of a war!  But the key is there must be public hostility in the election year itself.  If this were May 2014, there would be a chance, albeit IMO still a slim one given the apparent lack of any WH involvement in these "scandals," that this stuff could have some effect on the midterms.  But not something that starts in May 2013 and isn't going to last into the election year.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:02:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Brazil legalizes gay marriage! (10+ / 0-)
    BRAZIL - A top judicial panel cleared the way for same-sex marriage in Brazil on Tuesday, ruling that gay couples could not be denied marriage licenses.

    The National Council of Justice, which oversees the Brazilian judicial system and is headed by the chief justice of the Supreme Court, said government offices that issue marriage licenses had no standing to reject gay couples.

    The Supreme Court "affirmed that the expression of homosexuality and homosexual affection cannot serve as a basis for discriminatory treatment, which has no support in the Constitution," said Chief Justice Joaquim Barbosa on the council's website, referring to a 2011 ruling by the top court.

    http://www.enca.com/...

    So we have a Vaugh Walker/Prop 8-ruling type of a situation here in that though this ruling will be appealed, the next body will also be friendly to the cause. Unlike the case of Prop 8 which made it's way to the 9th circuit however, the next step for this law is the last step, the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil. Also different is that unlike our SCOTUS, there's reason to be optimistic. 1) The Brazilian Supreme Court has 7 "Leftists" and 3 "Rightists" + 1 Vacancy (to be filled by Center-Left President Dilma Rousseff. 2) This ruling was 14-1, not a particularly contentious or divided vote and 3) The President of the Supreme Federal Court happens to also head this Court. So while this law will certainly be appealed, it's highly unlikely the Supreme Court will overturn this Court's ruling. The only remaining question is whether gay marriages can begin immediately nationwide or whether they will have to wait for the Supreme Court. From reading the reports it seems likely that the former is the case and gay marriages are now effectively legal throughout the nation. Brazil becomes the 15th nation to approve gay marriage, the largest by far with over 200,000,000 citizens and the first BRICS Nation to do so.

    Considering how quickly Latin America is moving on this issue, that should also pressure the US into getting its act together. In the Americas gay marriage is now legal in Argentina, Brazil, Canada and Uruguay. Colombia's Supreme Court has given the Congress till June 20,2013 or gay marriages begin immediately and Mexico has de jure gay marriage with the only prerequisite being you get your marriage licence in Mexico City. Chile takes up the issue next year and Costa Rica begins to debate civil unions. Noticeable laggards have been the far left countries like Ecuador, Nicaragua, Venezuela and Bolivia.

    21, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco, Terracotta, and Cultural Gem of Green Country!); Currently studying in Madrid, Spain

    by gigantomachyusa on Tue May 14, 2013 at 04:25:23 PM PDT

  •  Woohoo I finally got my computer back from (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY

    the shop with a larger hard drive (and thankfully still windows 7).  Annoyingly I can't get the old one to work in the CD tray which would have given me a lot more space, so I'll probably have to go back to ITS.... Anyway, I should have the next diary in the political geography series out sometime this week now that I have access to all of my files again and I'll update all 4 of the regional parts with better looking maps as well.

    Unfortunately I still haven't heard back from YouGov and if I don't hear from them tomorrow I'll email them again, but I can't imagine it costs remotely close to the $3200 PPP wanted.

    •  Suggestion for a future diary (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn

      Which counties switched how they voted for US House between 2010 and 2012?

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Tue May 14, 2013 at 05:40:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I've taken a bit of a cue from you (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf

      and am trying to use DRA to get an approximation of how state house candidates in Oregon performed compared to Obama last fall. Of course its limited by some uncontested races and lack of precinct data in a lot of counties, though.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Tue May 14, 2013 at 05:55:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Ben Jones isn't exactly a great politician either (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, jj32, David Nir

    He served two terms in Congress than lost his primary.  I don't really hold his huge 1992 loss against him: his district was completely eliminated and he was stuck running against the man who drew the seat.  But Jones made the colossally poor choice to run against Newt Gingrich in 1994.   Unsurprisingly it didn't go well.

    Jones tried reviving his career in Virginia in 2002.  His choice of districts was petty bad though.  Bush won VA-07 with 61% in 2000 so it's not like he shouldn't have known he'd be in for a tough fight.  He lost 69-30 to Eric Cantor, giving him a pretty unique distinction of losing to two senior Republican leaders in two different states as a former Congressman himself.

     

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Tue May 14, 2013 at 06:10:12 PM PDT

  •  Got polled today (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, MichaelNY, Darth Jeff

    For the mayor's race! First time I've ever been polled. They asked me a ton about the transportation situation in Los Angeles as well as many attributes about the mayoral candidates.

    I also heard questions on the medical maurijauna issue. I may have pissed them off a little bit because I rambled a bit when talking about the LA transportation system which I have very strong views on but it still was really interesting.

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

    by Alibguy on Tue May 14, 2013 at 06:28:59 PM PDT

    •  Did you catch which pollster? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      I got polled twice in New Orleans during the 2010 municipal races; the names of both pollsters were said way to quickly for me to hear.  Interestingly, I was volunteering or about to volunteer on both races.  They only asked me who I was planning to support, and one asked me how likely I was to vote.  No demographic information was asked, which was weird.  Also weirdly, they polled me despite my phone's out of state area code.

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

      by Jeff Singer on Tue May 14, 2013 at 07:20:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        That's pretty interesting. The polling firm that called me was national research, I did a little research on them and they seem affiliated toward the Republican Party. They called me from a Las Vegas area code though instead of an East Coast area code and I think they are located in the East Coast.

        For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

        by Alibguy on Wed May 15, 2013 at 09:06:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I don't have any inside information (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, MichaelNY, Gygaxian, abgin

    but I am starting to think that Alison Lundergan Grimes is going to skip the Senate race in Kentucky. The events of this week may push her further against it. She has a lot of options in 2015. She would be a heavy favorite for reelection as Secretary of State, but there are stories that Jack Conway would like to get her as a running mate. She also may be looking at running for Attorney General (I think that would be her smartest move). And of course that leaves a potentially open 2016 Senate race hers for the taking.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Tue May 14, 2013 at 06:43:24 PM PDT

    •  I sure hope not. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY, gabjoh

      All the inside info does not preclude her running so far.  She would be doing a disservice by not running.  She would win re-election in 2015 regardless.  Her smartest move is making Mitch sweat as it would use up his time, money, and would be a help for Dem turnout.

      "Crying silently. Children cry because they want attention, because they're hurt, or afraid. When they cry silently it's because they just can't stop." -The Eleventh Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Tue May 14, 2013 at 07:22:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Mongiardo's narrow, painful loss to (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        the increasingly mentally incompetent Jim Bunning (who said Mongiardo looks like Saddam Hussein's sons) did not end his prospects and she's younger than him.

        "Crying silently. Children cry because they want attention, because they're hurt, or afraid. When they cry silently it's because they just can't stop." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Tue May 14, 2013 at 07:25:13 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Omaha mayor: GOPer starts with big lead (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    http://scribblelive.mobi/...

    Jean Stothert 25,953 57%
    (i) Jim Suttle 19,184 43%
    I have no idea where these votes are coming from or how much is in.  For what it's worth about 75,000 votes were cast in the 2009 race.  Assuming roughly similar turnout we're at about 30% reporting.

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Tue May 14, 2013 at 06:59:38 PM PDT

  •  Omaha-Mayor: Suttle concedes (4+ / 0-)

    turned out to be quite a blowout

    27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Tue May 14, 2013 at 07:14:18 PM PDT

    •  Were there any polls before today? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff, MichaelNY

      21, Male, NC-02 home, SC-04 School. Majoring in Piano Pedagogy. Not your typical DKE junkie!

      by aggou on Tue May 14, 2013 at 07:19:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Damn. He looked like the favorite starting out (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bumiputera

      Given how ridiculously easy it is to get a recall vote on the ballot in Nebraska for municipal officials, I expect Stohert will face her own recall race soonish.  

      Well this brings the number of high profile Nebraska Democrats down even further.  We have Lincoln mayor Chris Beutler, but at 68 he probably won't be running for higher office.  (Though Suttle's the same age)

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

      by Jeff Singer on Tue May 14, 2013 at 07:26:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, the NDP is pretty much dead lol (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Darth Jeff, MichaelNY

        Beutler, and State Sen Heath Mello, who is the chairman of the appropriations committee.  That's about all we have now.

        I guess the silver lining is that Democrats easily retained control of the city council.

        27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

        by JDJase on Tue May 14, 2013 at 08:16:30 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  What happened? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Why did he lose?

      Gay farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.88, -3.64, 2012 Daily Kos Elections Pick'Em runner-up.

      by WisJohn on Tue May 14, 2013 at 07:37:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Still not sure (4+ / 0-)

        In fact Suttle's remarks were "this is surprising, we have no idea what went wrong"

        I noted a few days ago how the campaign was almost invisible from the airwaves and focused on other things (I think like social media, etc).  I sometimes worry that campaigns sometimes mistakenly interpret Obama's use of social media as a substitute for traditional campaigning, not as a supplement.

        27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

        by JDJase on Tue May 14, 2013 at 08:20:26 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Did (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JDJase, MichaelNY

          he ever fully recover from that recall attempt in 2011?

          The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

          by ehstronghold on Tue May 14, 2013 at 08:27:23 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I honestly thought he did (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            the restaurant tax (the reason for the recall) turned out to be a huge success that most people didn't even notice existed, and Omaha was killing it in various rankings economy and business wise.

            I honestly think that this was a "crappy campaign" issue and not a "Suttle was a crappy mayor" issue.

            27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

            by JDJase on Tue May 14, 2013 at 08:30:33 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  30 minutes (4+ / 0-)

    until polls in British Columbia closed. Hoping for #change4thebetter and the NDP wins.

    FYI watch here:

    http://www.cbc.ca/...

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Tue May 14, 2013 at 07:31:34 PM PDT

  •  Jersey City had an election too (5+ / 0-)

    Between Democrat incumbent Jerry Healy and Democratic challenger Steve Fulop (with GOPer Jerry Walker as third wheel).  Healy was the stauncher Democrat, but had a spotty record.  Fulop is Booker-ish (but less progressive, some fear), came out of finance, and had some Republican endorsements.  Fulop won 52-38.  I was kinda supporting Healy, but it's too far away to be of much interest to me.

    "Crying silently. Children cry because they want attention, because they're hurt, or afraid. When they cry silently it's because they just can't stop." -The Eleventh Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Tue May 14, 2013 at 07:33:04 PM PDT

  •  Jesus' endorsement worthless? (6+ / 0-)

    people on here may have read about the Florida mayoral candidate who claimed to be endorsed by Jesus. she came in last out of 7 candidates.

    one of the candidates was named Joseph Smith, so it's possible that she jumped the gun and claimed an endorsement that actually belonged to another candidate. (although Smith lost too.)

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Tue May 14, 2013 at 07:37:18 PM PDT

  •  Anthony Weiner hires a campaign manager (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, ChadmanFL, Gygaxian

    I guess he's in:

    Anthony Weiner’s new campaign manager for his nascent mayoral bid is a recent Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee adviser who spent four months working on a failed Staten Island congressional race last year, two sources familiar with the hire told POLITICO.

    Danny Kedem, who worked on Mark Murphy’s congressional run in New York’s 11th District last year, has been brought on as Weiner’s campaign manager for a race he is likely to announce next week, according to multiple sources. Kedem’s resume includes a handful of other congressional runs and mayoral races, as well as field organizing work on Hillary Clinton’s presidential run.

    Doesn't sound like he's the most experienced guy on the planet but if you're Anthony Weiner you take what you can get.

    I've heard some interesting theories that Weiner knows he can't win this race.  He's running to clear the air of his scandal so that the next time he seeks office this will all be old news to voters.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Tue May 14, 2013 at 07:37:21 PM PDT

  •  MI: Gay Marriage (4+ / 0-)

    A new poll by Glengariff Group shows that Michigan voters support gay marriage by 56.8%.  

    http://www.clickondetroit.com/...

  •  Results (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff, ChadmanFL

    from the riding of Richmond East coming in. Not a surprise with the Liberals are romping home with 20 votes to the NDP's 8. It's a pretty safe Liberal riding.

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Tue May 14, 2013 at 08:18:38 PM PDT

  •  CA SD-32: Torres leading big in early returns (6+ / 0-)

    http://vote.sos.ca.gov/...

    Norma J. Torres
    (Party Preference: DEM)    15,505   
    59.2%
         Paul S. Leon
    (Party Preference: REP)    10,671   
    40.8%

    27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Tue May 14, 2013 at 08:28:26 PM PDT

  •  Anyone know... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL

    Why Metro Vancouver, B.C., seems so much more conservative than the Seattle or Portland metropolitan areas?

    •  Someone up thread mentioned a (0+ / 0-)

      fiscal/economic conservative coalition, and living in Vancouver I think that's probably the biggest reason why. This is probably the reason Richmond, BC, with its large Asian minority population, often vote conservative. In the city of Vancouver proper, there should be a north-south split because the southern parts of the city are more affluent.

      "My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world." -Jack Layton (1950-2011)

      by Coco Usagi on Tue May 14, 2013 at 08:35:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  BC election update (0+ / 0-)

    Liberals leading in 30 ridings, NDP 19 and one independent.

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Tue May 14, 2013 at 08:29:40 PM PDT

  •  Vancouver-Point Grey (0+ / 0-)

    2 polls in and Christy Clark is leading her NDP opponent 47-31 votes. And the Greens are leading in Oak Bay-Gordon Head. Their candidate is leading with 72 votes to the Liberals 57 and NDP's 26.

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Tue May 14, 2013 at 08:32:50 PM PDT

  •  Black men have higher turnout than white men, (8+ / 0-)

    it turns out. Or white women, for that matter. Their numbers are just suppressed due to high rates of felon disenfranchisement.

    It's a real unfortunate coincidence that so many more black men than white men end up in prison. Tough luck, that!

  •  BC Election (0+ / 0-)

    So today I went to cast my ballot and was surprised a Platinum Party existed in BC.
    So I did my research, and besides the very grade 1 design that was their website, here's what I got:

    The platinum party will help you to understand the base level of operations of government, this is information the brand name parties do not want given to the general public.

    Members of the Platinum party, in its most basic sense, are seekers of truth and fact. We wish to help those who otherwise wouldn't even know what they don't know, and what better place to get to the facts of the matter about the above issues than in the provincial legislature in Victoria.

    "My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world." -Jack Layton (1950-2011)

    by Coco Usagi on Tue May 14, 2013 at 08:43:20 PM PDT

  •  Liberals (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff, ChadmanFL, MichaelNY

    leading in 47 ridings (they need 43 for majority government), NDP leading in 28 ridings, Independents in 3 ridings and the Greens in 2.

    Oh boy we could have another Alberta on our hands! I'm sure Justin Trudeau is prepared to claim some credit if the Liberals win tonight.

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Tue May 14, 2013 at 08:45:12 PM PDT

    •  WTF is happening here? (4+ / 0-)

      The NDP had leads of 5-10 points in all the recent polls I'd seen.  These early numbers look terrible for the NDP...

      •  I (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, ChadmanFL, MichaelNY

        was afraid that the come back (or almost in Quebec's case) from behind win for the party holding power provincially that occurred in Ontario and Alberta could happen here.

        The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

        by ehstronghold on Tue May 14, 2013 at 08:52:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Way too early to draw conclusions (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ehstronghold, MichaelNY, gabjoh

        Let's wait here .
        Oh and Trudeau would not claim credit here. The BC Liberal is the least Liberal of the state parties because it is actually the party of both the BC Tories and Liberals. The fact it has the same name (and there was talk of changing it recently) does not mean there is a link with national politics. Trudeau is irrelevant in this case.

      •  Yes, but with first past the post (0+ / 0-)

        5-10% won't be enough for the NDP, especially with the cushion that the BC Liberals are sitting on in the inner regions of BC ("bible belt of Canada") and the fact that the Green Party is pulling away votes from the NDP in the cities.
        And Metro Vancouver is generally fiscal conservative: they won't vote for unions.
        That said, the premier is going to have to fight for her job nevertheless.

        "My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world." -Jack Layton (1950-2011)

        by Coco Usagi on Tue May 14, 2013 at 08:56:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  But it's just not a wide margin in ridings (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh

          The Liberals still have a solid 7% lead in overall vote totals.  Seriously, is it common for polls to be THIS far off in Canadian elections?

          •  Second time it happens (0+ / 0-)

            In a year. Alberta's election was also a shock upset if you based it on polls (although at least in BC pollsters picked up the Liberals gaining steam during the campaign when they missed the movement in Alberta if my memory serves me correctly)

            •  Forum (0+ / 0-)

              showed it getting closer while other pollsters showed it getting close, but the NDP pulling away in the last couple of days.

              The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

              by ehstronghold on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:22:11 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  This isn't even looking particularly close (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ChadmanFL, MichaelNY, gabjoh

        Damn.

        •  If this gets confirmed (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          And that's a big if ...

          Proof that the utter disaster that was the last NDP government really really really traumatized BC more than we thought.

          •  It did. My parents were around for the (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            marieperoy, MichaelNY

            last BC NDP government and now they won't vote NDP even if their lives depended on it, even though they still vote Liberal in federal elections and sometimes, even the more liberal choice for municipal elections.
            But never the NDP provincially.

            "My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world." -Jack Layton (1950-2011)

            by Coco Usagi on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:03:15 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yeah (0+ / 0-)

              from what I've read the if there was a legitimate third party like in Ontario the BC NDP would of gone the way of the Ontario NDP after their disastrous stint in government.

              The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

              by ehstronghold on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:06:17 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  The (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    way these ridings are falling are interesting so far. The NDP are leading in Liberal held ridings, but the Liberals are leading in more NDP ridings...

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Tue May 14, 2013 at 08:57:11 PM PDT

    •  Looks (0+ / 0-)

      like the NDP will lose Chilliwack-Hope if these early returns hold up. Not a surprise since this is a seat the NDP had no business winning in the first place if it wasn't for the Conservatives taking votes away from the Liberals.

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Tue May 14, 2013 at 08:59:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Early Results (0+ / 0-)

      But the trend in Canada since at least 2004 has been for a late move of 3-4 points(often more) to the government from the last polls. I feel good having called this result last week, so I get a couple free dinners if the Liberals win.

      •  I'd (0+ / 0-)

        hate to be Thomas Mulcair and the Federal NDP in question period tomorrow if the BC NDP loses tonight. I'm sure the Liberals and Tories will be more than willing to talk about the NDP losing the "unloseable election."

        The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

        by ehstronghold on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:03:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Damn Green Party (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, MichaelNY, gabjoh

    Some things are the same in Canada as they are here. Greens more than making up the margin by which Liberals lead NDP candidates in a few key districts.

    •  Sorry to say (0+ / 0-)

      but that's karma. They cynically campaigned against the carbon tax the Liberals introduced last time around, playing the populist card against  a good policy and alienating traditionally supportive environmentalists. So why would the Greens have any trust in anything they say now?

      And Dix may have hurt himself going after those voters according to this analysis: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/...
      He didn't convince the Greens but he alienated the Center.

  •  Libs win. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    marieperoy, MichaelNY

    CTV

    Gay farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.88, -3.64, 2012 Daily Kos Elections Pick'Em runner-up.

    by WisJohn on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:10:45 PM PDT

  •  Global calling it an (0+ / 0-)

    "Alberta-style turnaround."

    Gay farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.88, -3.64, 2012 Daily Kos Elections Pick'Em runner-up.

    by WisJohn on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:23:45 PM PDT

    •  Whenever (0+ / 0-)

      Alison Redford and Christy Clark start talking again, they could probably talk about their comeback stories for a long time....

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:28:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I've been having an interesting FB discussion (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    with the head of the Utah Democratic Progressive Caucus (DPC). Basically, we're discussing whether we should stick with Republican-lite Democrats or go full-bore progressive. The DPC guy is pointing out that even Matheson seems to be bleeding support, and he's convinced that is partially because Matheson is being a Republican-lite (beyond even simple moderation), and people are getting sick of that. He's also been saying that people don't respect (and therefore don't vote for) Utah Democrats partially because we tend to try and be GOP-lite.

    He points out that Utahns like a lot of liberal things (but doesn't provide evidence), and claims that even if it costs us a few elections in the short term, we're already basically at rock bottom already, and going progressive will reward Utah Dems in the long term, as people will know what we stand for and will eventually respect us and vote for us once we stand for something.

    Obviously this is pretty naive, but he makes some good points. People liked progressive Ben McAdams when he ran for County Mayor last year, and he barely disguised his positions while winning by a 9% margin. And Utahns do like individual progressive, "good-government" ideas, like anti-credit fraud legislation and anti-discrimination policies.

    And who knows how many left-leaning voters stay home because the Utah Dems are GOP-lite and (in cases of minority voters) don't help register them to vote enough? Probably not a lot, but we really don't have that much to lose.

    I really don't think going all-progressive suddenly is a wise move, but gradual progressivism might work, even in Utah.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:24:22 PM PDT

    •  This guy sounds like a typical (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian, WisJohn, gabjoh, jncca, bumiputera

      "Jim deMint" liberal. There are lots of them who hang out in front-page diaries here, and they're pointless to reason with.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:40:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I was in an argumentwith one in kurykh's (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Gay farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.88, -3.64, 2012 Daily Kos Elections Pick'Em runner-up.

        by WisJohn on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:47:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  At least he's not the blindly anti-Mormon type (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        He seems to be the "criticize Mormons when they deserve it, not every time they show up in an article" type. There's a lot of the latter group on Salt Lake Tribune comments, and they're awful.

        And you need Mormons to win anything in Utah.

        Regardless, I think his point that we can't get worse off in Utah is pretty compelling. I mean, Matheson and McAdams aside, we aren't doing that well; 2 major mayoral seats (one if you don't count the County), 2-3 minor mayoral seats, 5 state senate seats, 14 state house seats, and literally nothing else in the state. And Matheson barely counts, no matter what anyone might say about "strategy" or "keeping the Tea Partiers out". What use is his seat if Matheson and the Utah Dems keep moving to the right (and not even the normal Republican right either; the Utah conservative right)?

        Again, I recognize that the DPC guy's view is naive, but I do agree that the right-ward trend needs to be stopped.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:57:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Oh (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, gabjoh

    yay the Liberal's leading or elected seat totals dropped by 1 to 49 lol.

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:24:38 PM PDT

  •  NDP (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh

    leading in Christy Clark's riding by 21 votes!!!!!!!

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:25:37 PM PDT

    •  If she lost (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ehstronghold, SaoMagnifico

      If she lost while the Libs having a majority, there are a whole lot of Liberal powerbrokers who would be in Heaven right now. Their main consolation from the beatdown they thought they were going to get was getting rid of her. Imagine if they kill two birds with one stone!
      That said, it seesaws so too soon to analyze.

      •  The best result is Premier Clark being returned (0+ / 0-)

        If she falls, the BC Liberals probably swing to the right.

        •  The second they touch social issues (0+ / 0-)

          they will lose in the next election. So there's a limit to how far they can swing that way.

          "My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world." -Jack Layton (1950-2011)

          by Coco Usagi on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:40:01 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Not convinced (0+ / 0-)

          She tried that strategy and it got her nowhere.
          They pulled THIS off by going back to their usual positioning (once the Conservative Party that was scaring them into going to the right started falling apart).
          I get that the next leader would probably be to the right of her BUT I don't think the positioning would be that much different. I think they are keenly aware what happened after the last election when they abruptly moved in a direction different from the one they had campaigned on.,

  •  Lib Majority. (0+ / 0-)

    CTV.

    Gay farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.88, -3.64, 2012 Daily Kos Elections Pick'Em runner-up.

    by WisJohn on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:27:12 PM PDT

  •  Liberals (0+ / 0-)

    elected in 26 ridings. If they get up into the 30's soon I'm prepared to call this for the Liberals.

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:31:15 PM PDT

  •  Greens (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn

    win the riding of Oak Bay-Gordon Head. Liberal cabinet minister Ida Chong in third place.

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:33:39 PM PDT

  •  CBC (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    marieperoy, WisJohn

    projects a Liberal government.

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:37:05 PM PDT

  •  CBC (0+ / 0-)

    is showing a picture of NDP supporters drinking Starbucks, tea and Red Wine. Only hipsters could celebrate or mourn like that.

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:44:22 PM PDT

  •  Closer than close in Vancouver-Point Grey (0+ / 0-)

    Eby's lead is down to 17 votes. Still 67 polls out.

  •  If (0+ / 0-)

    Clark wins her riding (looking more likely now) and she and Redford hold a joint press conference in the future they should wear shirts saying, "The Comeback Twins" or something along those lines.

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Tue May 14, 2013 at 09:57:44 PM PDT

  •  CBC (0+ / 0-)

    projecting the Liberals will win a majority government.

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Tue May 14, 2013 at 10:02:40 PM PDT

  •  Tightening back up in Vancouver-Point Grey (0+ / 0-)

    It's back into double-digits. Premier Clark is having a long night.

  •  CTV saying turnout is 48%. (0+ / 0-)

    It was 51% last election. Could NDP supporters have been too confident and stayed home, thinking the election was in the bag?

    Gay farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.88, -3.64, 2012 Daily Kos Elections Pick'Em runner-up.

    by WisJohn on Tue May 14, 2013 at 10:12:45 PM PDT

    •  That's not big movement (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, MichaelNY

      The NDP just ran a bad campaign, plain and simple.

      •  That pipeline decision (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ehstronghold, MichaelNY

        is one key moment IMO.
        As explained in the piece I shared above.
        They had alienated the Greens too much in 2009 for them to be winnable but by flip-flopping on it to try and lure them back to the fold - when their polling was minimal - he on the other hand completely alienated a part of more centrist skittish voters and totally played into the hands of Clark's message that the NDP hadn't changed and their true "economic-development-hating" colors would show in goverment.

        •  Dix (0+ / 0-)

          did badly in the debate as well. Personally I thought at the time Dix's performance in the debate wasn't fatal especially since the media was calling it a draw at worst and I thought it was a draw at worst as well.

          I guess that's not what swing voters thought!

          The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

          by ehstronghold on Tue May 14, 2013 at 10:21:59 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico

      think the NDP got way too complacent and thought swing voters were ready to throw out the Liberals like what happened to the NDP in 2001.

      They didn't expect the Liberals would savage them with such vicious attack ads and of course we have to blame Adrian Dix here for opening his mouth and flip flop on his support for the Kinder Morgan pipeline.

      It would of been a great decision to oppose the pipeline if it pulled Green voters to the NDP, but it didn't and it cost the NDP the center in the process.

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Tue May 14, 2013 at 10:18:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'd add this (0+ / 0-)

        I don't think the Kinder Morgan thing would have hurt as much if he had never said anything about it and simply decided to oppose it.
        Flip-flopping on it totally played into the message of the Liberals that Dix and the NDP's new reasonable image was just spin and they'd turn around and be another disaster for the economy once voted in.

        Oh and sorry but if you are right and they didn't expect the Liberals would savage them with attack ads, then they deserved to lose and more. You'd have to be, well I can't think of a polite word, not to have seen that coming years and years ago.

  •  Looks like Premier Clark may be defeated (0+ / 0-)

    She's still behind with the vote count almost complete.

  •  Christy Clark looks like she lost her riding (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    But she shouldn't be worried as long as she can get someone in a safe Liberal seat to resign and allow her to get into the legislative assembly. Should've ran next door in the much safer seat of Vancouver-Quilchena when the incumbent Liberal retired, but oh well.

    Adrian Dix, on the other hand, is dead meat at the next NDP caucus meeting.

    23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14.

    by kurykh on Wed May 15, 2013 at 01:08:39 AM PDT

  •  Pollsters screwed up as they did in Alberta (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Looks like Conservative vote collapsed at the end.  But that doesn't explain why NDP vote came in 3-5 points belowfrom where they were polling at the end.

    Keep the TVA public.

    by Paleo on Wed May 15, 2013 at 02:41:13 AM PDT

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