Turning on the news tonight, the local news stations are flagging a low pressure weather system swirling up out of Pennsylvania into central New York and slowly moving to the east into New England. Forecasters are talking about several hours of heavy rains with amounts of an inch an hour; flash flood warnings are being made. Weather Underground posted the following bulletin at 3:55 PM EDT June 27, 2013.
The Flood Watch continues for
* all of east central New York and adjacent western New England
* through Friday afternoon
* rain with embedded thunderstorms are expected to spread
northeast across eastern New York and western New England this
evening... and continue through tonight. Widespread rain should
exit eastern New York and western New England Friday morning.
* Rainfall amounts are still expected to be around 2 inches in
most of eastern New York and western New England... but around 3
inches in the eastern Catskills... and between an inch and a half
and two inches in the Mid Hudson valley and northwestern
Connecticut. Localized amounts of 3 to 4 inches of rain are
possible in any thunderstorms across the region and especially
around the high peaks of the eastern Catskills and southern
Adirondacks.
* Some flash flooding will be possible within areas of persistent
downpours associated with thunderstorms. Main Stem river
flooding is also possible... especially for the Mohawk basin.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.
There are scattered thunderstorms already present ahead of the system. Eastern New York is already running ahead of normal averages for rainfall; additional rain is not currently needed. While there have been warnings that there may be tornadoes associated with the system, none have been reported to the best of my knowledge as of 7:00 PM EDT.
The danger of this weather system is in its slow speed and the amount of moisture it is delivering. This is a sufficient volume of rainfall to overwhelm normal drainage - creeks, streams, rivers, roadways may experience flooding, especially where local terrain contributes to the problem. There will be lightning associated with the weather system as well.
An additional factor is the timing. The bulk of the storm is currently over central New York and already causing problems It will be moving to the east through the hours of darkness so that flooding problems will develop while people are asleep, and continue into the morning. Anyone living on or near a flood plain or watercourse should check their local forecast, and consider what kind of emergency measures they might need to take. Drivers should be careful about possible flooding on roadways - according to weather service warnings, moving water a foot deep is powerful enough to sweep a vehicle away. Don't be that person.
If you have a weather radio with an alarm feature, or have weather warnings enabled on your cell phone, tonight might be a good time to keep it nearby.
Meanwhile, there's a forecast of triple digit hot weather in the west, more rough weather in the midwest, and also around the Great Lakes. Stay safe everyone.
5:14 PM PT: UPDATE: It just started raining where I am at around 8:00 PM EDT, with a lot of thunder for preliminaries. I saw at least one frog already out hopping around before the rain started. Now I just have to see if the rain will come down faster over the next few hours than my sump pumps can keep it from coming up in the basement...
UPDATE 0700 EDT: The overnight rain picture around the Capitol Region of New York State saw rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches, with more in some local spots. There may be some clearing today as the weather system moves out, which ironically could result in local thunderstorms. The Canajoharie Creek is expected to be out of its banks by 0800 EDT. There may be scattered urban flooding.
Further to the west, rainfall amounts were heavier in an area stretching from Binghamton up to Herkimer. Totals ran from 3 to 5 inches; Herkimer may be declaring a disaster. There have been homes flooded, and water rescues. The morning 0614 EDT forecast in the Albany Times Union warns of a continuing flash flooding risk.
The Mohawk Valley region is in recovery mode this morning. Emergency services are swamped.
A woman answering the phone at the county's 911 center says emergency management officials were too busy to comment because "everything is flooding."
This follows
thunderstorms earlier in the week which caused flash flooding and road closures.
The system also caused flooding in Pennsylvania; State College was hit hard.
For those affected by this storm system, it's a big deal - not so much for the rest of the country. The big national weather story appears to be the heat wave stretching over much of the west; a new temperature record may be set today in Death Valley, where temperatures may climb into the 130s, F.