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As readers of DailyKos Elections, you are no doubt familiar with PVI. For the last few years I have been doing a version of PVI for Minnesota Legislative districts that I very creatively call hPVI, which stands for hybrid Partisan Voting Index.

It's a hybrid because rather than using the results of the last two Presidential elections, as PVI does, hPVI uses the results of the last Presidential election and the last Gubernatorial election. This makes the data not only more localized, but more fresher.

The original version of this post appeared on LeftMN, and was preceded by an intro post, that you may or may not find relevant.

In the graph below each bar represents a Senate district, the height of the bar representing the hPVI of the district, districts on the left side of the graph are Republican leaning and districts on the right side are Democratic leaning. The color of the bar represents the party that currently occupies the seat.

The first vertical bar acts as the demarcation between Republican and Democratic leaning seats. The location of the 34th seat, the number of seats needed for control of the Senate, is marked by the second vertical bar.

This graph vividly illustrates just how concentrated with Democrats the most Democratic districts are compared to the concentration of Republicans in the most Republican districts.

On the GOP side there is a smooth and gradual incline, giving the Republicans a bunch of strong, if not overwhelmingly so, districts. The DFL side, however, cannot be described as gradual in the least.

The most Republican district in the entire state is 1 point more Republican than the second most Republican district. The most Democratic district is 7 points more Democratic than the second most Democratic district. Even more telling, there are 12 districts that are more concentrated with DFLers than the most Republican district.

The above graph also illustrates the amount of penetration each party has into the others districts; with DFL Senator Vicki Jensen sitting in an R+4 district and GOP Senator Jeremy Miller sitting in a D+3 district.

The graph below breaks down the districts into three buckets, roughly; GOP friendly, competitive and DFL friendly.

Looking at the districts this way there doesn't seem to be too many differences between the distribution of seats between the two parties. Both have about 20 districts that are moderately favorable or better, and there's more then 25 districts up for grabs in the middle.

But those seats in the middle are not evenly distributed, as seen in the graph below that further breaks down the R+5 to D+5 range seen in the graph above.

There are more then twice as many districts that fall into the R+5 to R+2 bucket as there are districts that fall into the D+5 to D+2 bucket. So while both parties have roughly the same number of districts that they are strongly favored to win, the Republicans have twice as many districts that give them a more modest advantage.

The DFL is in the majority because they hold a majority of those R+5-R+2 districts and all but two of the R+1-D+5 districts.

Here is the entire Senate hPVI list:

SD Senator Party hPVI
1 LeRoy Stumpf DFL R+2
2 Rod Skoe DFL R+4
3 Thomas Bakk DFL D+11
4 Kent Eken DFL D+1
5 Tom Saxhaug DFL D+2
6 David Tomassoni DFL D+17
7 Roger Reinert DFL D+21
8 Bill Ingebrigtsen GOP R+10
9 Paul Gazelka GOP R+11
10 Carrie Ruud GOP R+5
11 Tony Lourey DFL D+6
12 Torrey Westrom GOP R+7
13 Michelle Fischbach GOP R+9
14 John Pederson GOP EVEN
15 Dave Brown GOP R+12
16 Gary Dahms GOP R+7
17 Lyle Koenen DFL R+2
18 Scott Newman GOP R+12
19 Kathy Sheran DFL D+5
20 Kevin Dahle DFL R+3
21 Matt Schmit DFL R+4
22 Bill Weber GOP R+7
23 Julie Rosen GOP R+7
24 Vicki Jensen DFL R+4
25 David Senjem GOP R+3
26 Carla Nelson GOP R+2
27 Dan Sparks DFL D+8
28 Jeremy Miller GOP D+3
29 Bruce Anderson GOP R+12
30 Mary Kiffmeyer GOP R+14
31 Michelle Benson GOP R+14
32 Sean Nienow GOP R+8
33 David Osmek GOP R+13
34 Warren Limmer GOP R+9
35 Branden Petersen GOP R+9
36 John Hoffman DFL R+1
37 Alice Johnson DFL EVEN
38 Roger Chamberlain GOP R+6
39 Karin Housley GOP R+5
40 Chris Eaton DFL D+16
41 Barbara Goodwin DFL D+10
42 Bev Scalze DFL D+3
43 Charles Wiger DFL D+5
44 Terri Bonoff DFL R+1
45 Ann Rest DFL D+10
46 Ron Latz DFL D+15
47 Julianne Ortman GOP R+15
48 David Hann GOP R+4
49 Melisa Franzen DFL EVEN
50 Melissa Wiklund DFL D+9
51 Jim Carlson DFL D+1
52 James Metzen DFL D+4
53 Susan Kent DFL R+1
54 Katie Sieben DFL D+1
55 Eric Pratt GOP R+11
56 Dan Hall GOP R+5
57 Greg Clausen DFL R+3
58 Dave Thompson GOP R+10
59 Bobby Joe Champion DFL D+32
60 Kari Dziedzic DFL D+30
61 Scott Dibble DFL D+30
62 Jeff Hayden DFL D+39
63 Patricia Torres Ray DFL D+30
64 Dick Cohen DFL D+25
65 Sandy Pappas DFL D+31
66 John Marty DFL D+21
67 Foung Hawj DFL D+24
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Comment Preferences

  •  Wow. I'm living in R+15. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ER Doc, KingofSpades

    And they want me to run again ... ;)

    We are all in the same boat on a stormy sea, and we owe each other a terrible loyalty. -- G.K. Chesterton

    by Keith Pickering on Mon Jul 08, 2013 at 12:19:46 PM PDT

  •  It is a good diary. (0+ / 0-)

    But people don't seem to be interested in this race at this time. Maybe save it and replay it in a few months.

  •  Did you come up with this system? (0+ / 0-)

    I saw it used over at MinnPost, I believe. If you thought this up, kudos to you sir.

    I don't think many people outside of then state realize how tenuous our hold is on the legislature. and this diary really does a good job showing it.

    Not to sound needy, but if you could modify this in another diary into the House districts (it shouldn't be too hard with a 50/50 split) that would be awesome. The Senate races seem to be on the back burner, as it isnt up til 2016. I imagine the numbers would be fairly proportional, with a couple oddball districts like Stumpf's not really having a correlation in the House.

    I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

    by OGGoldy on Tue Jul 09, 2013 at 07:55:51 AM PDT

    •  I'll have the House up next week (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      OGGoldy

      And the version MinnPost did last cycle was an average of the results of the last three legislative races in that district, which is not really the point of PVI, IMHO.

      Politics in Minnesota used my hPVI numbers in a lot of their stuff from last cycle.

      I've been doing this version, Presidential and Gubernatorial numbers, since like 2009, first at MN Progressive Project and now my own blog.

  •  Bummer (0+ / 0-)

    I live in a Republican PVI district.  (SD36)

    Pretty damn surprised to see Bonoff's district as a Republican PVI.  Plymouth sure does suck for the DFL although it's not that bad.  And Minnetonka is a place where the DFL racks up votes now.  Excited to see if that changes at all over the next decade.  Where I used to live in Plymouth (south end, hwy 6 and 494), the apartment complex across street definitely seemed majority-Somali American, based off the kids standing at the bus stop.  My place could have been 50/50 white/AA.

    Speaking of Somali-Americans, I hear they are becoming prevalent minorities in St. Cloud and Rochester now.  Glad to see them integrating into our state.  And as an asshole politico, we certainly don't need their votes in central Minneapolis so I'm glad to see them move to where we need them!

    •  Minnetonka (0+ / 0-)

      It changes drastically depending on if you are in the loop or outside the loop. Bonnoff's portion is outside the loop, plus Plymouth. Its quite Republican, especially down ballot.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Tue Jul 09, 2013 at 03:56:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yep (0+ / 0-)

        The good parts of Minnetonka belong to SD48 which unfortunately also includes all of Eden Prairie, making it R+4. Maybe in 2016 we'll be able to flip that district. 48B (and Eden Prairie in general) is one of the house districts trending most rapidly towards the DFL, but it still has a little ways to go before being winnable.

        •  Personally I think the Rochester seats are better (0+ / 0-)

          I mean, I simply don't see someone like Loon losing in the SW suburbs. Too many of the moderate Paulsen voters live there, and Loon is no loon (pardon the lame pun). I think we have a serious shot at Senjem's seat, as he is very likely to retire. And I really don't think that Nelson is all that strong of a candidate. We are going to need to win seats like that to counterbalance the nearly certain loss of Stumpf's, and likely loss of Skoe's seats.

          I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

          by OGGoldy on Tue Jul 09, 2013 at 04:10:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Hann (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            OGGoldy

            I was referencing flipping SD48 from Hann in 2016, not 48B from Loon. I mentioned 48B because it is what is dragging the district down, but is getting better. Hann only won by about 4 points in 2012.

            Without Senjem we could win SD25 as it is trending more rapidly then SD26 (which is weighed down by pesky Stewartville). Norton's district is now a legitimate DFL district and even if she retired we should be able to hold 25B (though not without some effort). 25A is getting better.

            I think the weird thing about Olmsted County is that we are seeing Rochester itself become more democratic still, but the area around it isn't as much. Hence why Norton's and Liebling's districts have been shored up but 26B remains brutal (for anyone not named Welti). I remember you were bullish on our chances there, but I've done too much work in Olmsted county to see 26B flip to us before the end of this decade barring the second coming of Andy Welti.

            Yes, we'll lose Stumpf's seat when he retires, and most likely Skoe's as well. So Senjem and Hann's seats would be good targets, as would Pederson's in St. Cloud. Unfortunately I don't see us beating Jeremy Miller. Thankfully the state senate is up on presidential years this decade, that helps a lot.

            •  Miller is one of the few Republicans that scare me (0+ / 0-)

              The man is an alarmingly good politician. And he is young enough to be a thorn in the side of the DFL for the next 40 years.

              Speaking of Welti, what ever happened to him and his bicycle? Isn't he still in his 20s?

              As for St. Cloud, I think we may have a similar problem like in Rochester. Although St. cloud isn't really trending. Its bluish purple city in a sea of blood red. Although the mayor of Sartell is a DFLer (WTF happened there?)

              The NW seats are a shame. LeRoy Stumpf is a damn nice man. And he makes a killer bottle of wine (a personal favorite if his buddy ROM Rukavina). I just don't see any of our people winning up in he corner. Stumpf may may not be the most popular guy with Minneapolis activists, but I am going to moss him come 2017. Skoe's seat we have a shot at with presidential turnout on he reservation. But anyone coming out of that district will be a wholely owned subsidiary of Polaris. Which in and of itself isn't a huge problem, but it will be a reality.

              I guess you are more optimistic than I about the sqyishy voters in the SW metro moving in our direction. They scarcely are voting blue presidentially, and the trickle down trends can take many decades. I hope you're right, in this case however.

              I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

              by OGGoldy on Wed Jul 10, 2013 at 05:32:27 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

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