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August 15 initial compensation claims
Initial claims for unemployment compensation have fallen to their lowest weekly level since October 2007, two months before the Great Recession started, the Department of Labor reported Thursday. For the week ending Aug. 10, seasonally adjusted initial claims dropped to 320,000, down 15,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 335,000, originally reported as 333,000. The expert consensus had predicted claims of 330,000. For the comparable week of 2012, seasonally adjusted initial claims were 367,000.

The less volatile four-week running average fell to 332,000, down from the previous week's revised average of 336,000, the lowest level since November 2007.

Although initial weekly claims of 375,000 have in the past been viewed as predictive of robust new job creation, that hasn't been the case in the current economic situation.

During the past 40 years, the best 12-month period for initial claims was August 1999-July 2000 when the weekly average was 285,000. For the comparable 12-month period ending July 2013, the weekly average was 360,000.

In both federal and state compensation programs, the total number of people claiming benefits for the week ending July 27 was 4,586,860. That was up 65,906 from the previous week. Of the total, 1,552,910 Americans claimed compensation under the federal Emergency Unemployment Compensation put into place by Congress to ease the impact of the recession. For the comparable week of 2012, there were 5,704,310 people claiming compensation in all programs, with 2,373,969 of them making claims under the EUC.

Total claims are down over last year for three reasons: People previously receiving them have found jobs; they have exhausted their benefits; or, they have left the labor force. Exhausting benefits is happening sooner for jobless Americans now because Congress cut back the maximum duration an eligible worker can receive EUC compensation from 73 weeks to 41, and a few states have cut back their allowable maximum duration from the half-century-old nationwide standard of 26 weeks to 20 weeks or less. Several states have also lowered the maximum weekly benefit workers can receive and the federal budget sequester has reduced EUC compensaton checks by 11 percent or more, depending on the state.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Labor on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 08:34 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  "Fun with numbers" (they're just like words)... (22+ / 0-)
    ...Although initial weekly claims of 375,000 have in the past been viewed as predictive of robust new job creation, that hasn't been the case in the current economic situation....

    "I always thought if you worked hard enough and tried hard enough, things would work out. I was wrong." --Katharine Graham

    by bobswern on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 08:43:40 AM PDT

    •  "budget cuts hitting long-term unemployed hard" (23+ / 0-)
      U.S. budget cuts hitting long-term unemployed hard
      By Paige Gance
      Reuters
      WASHINGTON | Tue Aug 13, 2013 3:50pm EDT

      (Reuters) - Phyllis Kennedy is facing a bleak future. U.S. government budget tightening has slashed her weekly unemployment check by more than a fifth, and her prospects of finding a job are grim after over a year of unemployment.

      Kennedy, 57, from Little Falls, New Jersey, had her $380 weekly unemployment check cut by $85 at the end of June. Just when she was coming to terms with the blow, she learned her benefits would end altogether in three weeks, more than two months earlier than she had anticipated.

      She is among the 4.3 million in the United States who are officially counted as being unemployed for more than six months. According to the U.S. Labor Department, only 37 percent of that group received benefits in July compared with a peak of 93 percent in February 2010 when there were 6.2 million long-term unemployed...

      "I always thought if you worked hard enough and tried hard enough, things would work out. I was wrong." --Katharine Graham

      by bobswern on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 08:46:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes they are. The sequester and austerity (14+ / 0-)

        since 2010 has slowed the recovery.  All ture.  It amazes me that the economy has done as well as it is doing considering the attempts to destroy it, attempts predominately one by Republicans.

        I might have expected 400,000 new unemployment applications with the austerity/sequester this year.  

        We might be at 300,000 or less but for the sequester, but 320,000 is a sign of slwo improvement for employment.

        Join us on the Black Kos front porch to review news and views written from a black pov—everyone is welcome.

        by TomP on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 08:54:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I am amazed as well. (11+ / 0-)

          It is one thing to orchestrate a recovery when everyone is pulling in the same direction, or at least indifferent and sitting on the sidelines.

          But this is the first time I can remember a president literally having virulent opposition to EVERYTHING he attempts to do.

          It is a miracle that we have such progress at all, given the opposition to policy, and moneyed interests and their nonstop messaging, wrong messaging by the MSM, and corporate incentive to do nothing and keep their record profits.

          Ayn sucks. Please know I am not rude. I cannot rec anything from this browser. When I rec or post diaries I am a guest at some exotic locale's computer.

          by Floyd Blue on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 09:48:59 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Not a miracle but quite something. I agree. (0+ / 0-)

            Now to the fundamentals that were being destroyed long before the crash like the loss of manufacturing jobs which are starting to go back up.  The same message that was presented to us as a country right at the beginning of the crash is being repeated now.  Maybe more people can hear it now.  We had structural problems and aging infrastructure.  We need to keep going on research and development and make sure those discoveries lead to start ups here.  We need to take care with our trade issues and reinstate regulations to prevent speculation on Wall Street and the commodities markets.  We need to prevent consumer abuse (like bad mortgages) and re-shore profits.  We need a high enough minimum wage to give people a decent living.

            Our immigration and education are areas that need solid reforms and our military needs to be converted to a peace time status.  As much as possible we need to work to remove the occasion for war and use our efforts to help with people oriented development.  Climate change is a disaster and needs immediate all out attention.

            We are confronting all of these things and we need good people elected to office to work with.  That's going to take all of us to do the leg work again.

            •  the task seems impossible, given who is governing (0+ / 0-)

              in congress and in the state level....but we just have to keep at it.

              Ayn sucks. Please know I am not rude. I cannot rec anything from this browser. When I rec or post diaries I am a guest at some exotic locale's computer.

              by Floyd Blue on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 12:16:11 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  Really? Truman had a Congress much like this one. (0+ / 0-)

            He rode it to victory.

            Not just for himself, but for the Party.  He was able to leverage their intransigence into a Democratic recapture of both Houses.

             

            Mr. Universe is a known degenerate Robotophile, and his sources include former Browncoat Traitors. What is their agenda in leaking top secret information about the Reavers and endangering us all?

            by JesseCW on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 02:22:33 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  It is of course impossible that you or I (0+ / 0-)

            could remember the virulent opposition FDR faced, in spite of his electoral victories and his huge majorities in Congress. An adult in 1929 would be over 100 years old today. But from what I read, it was just as bad, and the Supreme Court he faced was much worse initially. However, I believe that his most memorable statement on the matter was in his announcement of the Second New Deal.

            We had to struggle with the old enemies of peace--business and financial monopoly, speculation, reckless banking, class antagonism, sectionalism, war profiteering.

            They had begun to consider the Government of the United States as a mere appendage to their own affairs. We know now that Government by organized money is just as dangerous as Government by organized mob.

            Never before in all our history have these forces been so united against one candidate as they stand today. They are unanimous in their hate for me—and I welcome their hatred.

            Then there is the question

            What if Obama gave FDR's 'I welcome their hatred' speech?

            The author concludes that Obama could not say to a divided electorate with a divided Congress what FDR could say secure in his majorities, long before Southern Christians went all Mammonite.

            Ceterem censeo, gerrymandra delenda est

            by Mokurai on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 07:42:11 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Using the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Inflation... (16+ / 0-)

        ...Calculator LINKED HERE, we learn that the minimum hourly wage back in 1968 was $1.60. In today's dollars, that's equal to $10.64 per hour.

        "I always thought if you worked hard enough and tried hard enough, things would work out. I was wrong." --Katharine Graham

        by bobswern on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 08:56:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  "40% of U.S. workers earn less than '68 min. wage" (16+ / 0-)

          ...per the AFL-CIO.

          "I always thought if you worked hard enough and tried hard enough, things would work out. I was wrong." --Katharine Graham

          by bobswern on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 08:57:48 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  That does not surprise me. (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Aquarius40, tardis10, psnyder, Nulwee, ColoTim

            The Republican succeeded in screwing working people since 1968.

            Join us on the Black Kos front porch to review news and views written from a black pov—everyone is welcome.

            by TomP on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 09:27:37 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I remember when the Republican Senate (0+ / 0-)

              Majority Leader refused to try to bring a Minimum Wage increase to the floor in 2009 and 2010.

              Damned Republicans.

              Christ.

              Mr. Universe is a known degenerate Robotophile, and his sources include former Browncoat Traitors. What is their agenda in leaking top secret information about the Reavers and endangering us all?

              by JesseCW on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 02:23:48 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  Ah yes, the McJob phenomenon (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lostinamerica, JesseCW

            The new job paying half of what the old job paid.

            I don't think the statisticians ever considered that  phenomenon when they created all these measurements for determining health of the economy.


            No longer Hoping for Change. Now Praying for a Miracle. 🍞 & 🎪

            by CitizenOfEarth on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 11:16:12 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Maybe working for a living isn't such a good idea (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JesseCW

            Rich people don't seem to be happy with working for wages, they want stock options, perks, bonuses, golden parachutes... bigger and better deals.

            I live in Maine, a state which has been in a permanent depression since the civil war. Most people here have a level of employment and income which not only qualifies for medicaid and SNAP, it requires them to hunt and gather, to forage for food, shelter, and clothing to survive.

            A Maine Times article entitled "A $20 Bill in February" was published with the assertion there wasn't such a thing in this state.

            Getting unemployment insurance paid under the LePage administration is like a Democrat getting to vote in North Carolina; it sort of seems like the deck is rigged against you and that is and was and will be the way it is, unchanging and absolute forever.

            A sort of spin off of that is unfunded entrepreneurial activity. People build boats, canoes, snowshoes, chairs, weave clothing out of yarn they get from sheep, make their own plus some for the neighbors.

            The materials are not often store bought. The labor is probably more a labor of love than money. In the short term that may be hard scrabble, but as we get closer and closer to recognizing what climate change has in store for us, its not bad preparation.

            Live Free or Die --- Investigate, Incarcerate

            by rktect on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 02:13:05 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  The longer this goes on the closer we get... (23+ / 0-)

        ...to the next (official) recession without having come close to repairing the damage from the most recent one.

        Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

        by Meteor Blades on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 09:01:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It is possible that we will not go back (15+ / 0-)

          to employment levels of a bubble economy.  Before Clinton, "experts" said 6 or 7% was the "normal" unemployment rate.  We had bubbles for much of twenty years (internet bubble and then real estate) that lowered unemployment to 5% and below.  Yet when the bubbles burst, high unemployment and much pain for workers.  

          It is possible that the inequality in our economy is preventing low unemployment without bubbles.  That there are fundamental problems.

          I do not think it is realistic to think that we are going to "come close to repairing the damage from the most recent one" wthout changes that are beyond those considered "realistic."  in other words, it's not happening.  We seem out of bubbles that will drive high levelas of growth and seem unable or unwilling to redistribute money downwards to create a larger demand for products and more decent life.

          The news today is good in as much as it indicates some improvement for jobs.   The millions of people being hired since 2009 matter.  But it maybe that the UE of the Reagan-Bush years is the baseline for our nation so long as we allow hige conentration of wealth.  

          Join us on the Black Kos front porch to review news and views written from a black pov—everyone is welcome.

          by TomP on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 09:11:39 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes, unfortunately, a lot of people think that (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            TomP

            "good economy" equates to bubble years of the past 20 years.  

            Instead, those are "high" years, not "normal."  

            And as wages have stayed nearly flat for nearly 40 years, we haven't even had real improvement at all, let alone "normal."

            We've had some exciting times of feeling flush with a lot of broke in between.  It's sorta like a gambling addict, our obsession with "free market," "globalization," and neoliberal economics.

            "The law is meant to be my servant and not my master, still less my torturer and my murderer." -- James Baldwin. July 11, 1966.

            by YucatanMan on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 12:20:05 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Those "experts" wanted excuses to keep interest (0+ / 0-)

            rates down because it was good for the Money Power.

            That was not Economics as a science, it was Economics as a  priestly service performed to please lords.

            There is NO part of our economic system that requires sustained high unemployment - it's just desirable for those who want to suppress wages.

            You are right - there will be no recovery without going far past what you personally consider "realistic".

            But many of us who are holding the shit end of this stick don't have a problem with going beyond the comfort zone of fence sitters.

            Mr. Universe is a known degenerate Robotophile, and his sources include former Browncoat Traitors. What is their agenda in leaking top secret information about the Reavers and endangering us all?

            by JesseCW on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 02:27:35 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  The periods of low unemployment (0+ / 0-)

            shown in the chart above as low jobless claims are precisely the periods of the last two bubbles. We are now crossing into that same territory, but with ever worse jobs. I greatly fear that we are in a new stock market bubble. My reasoning goes thus:

            1. Interest rates are at historic lows, on government and corporate bonds, CDs, and everything else except your credit card.
            2. Whenever interest rates go down, money sloshes over into the stock market, raising stock prices.
            3. As stock prices rise, more money chases them, usually to new record highs.
            4. Dividends on stocks are down.
            5. Consequently, Price/Earnings rations are unsustainably high.
            6. As stock prices continue to rise, P/Es become more unsustainable.
            7. Crash.

            If I had money to invest, I would be poring over the details in The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine, by Michael Lewis, about who might know what is going on this time, and how to profit from the looming disaster. If enough people knew to do that, we could cancel the bubble instead of waiting for the next crash.

            Ceterem censeo, gerrymandra delenda est

            by Mokurai on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 09:08:14 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  How true (4+ / 0-)

          The business cycle is getting long in the tooth. We are only a few months away from reaching the standard length of an "expansion".
             We may start a new recession without the unemployment rate ever getting below 7%.

          None are so hopelessly enslaved, as those who falsely believe they are free. The truth has been kept from the depth of their minds by masters who rule them with lies. -Johann von Goethe

          by gjohnsit on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 10:50:55 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't think it's that mechanistic. (0+ / 0-)
            We are only a few months away from reaching the standard length of an "expansion".
            As Bonddad notes, there are no immediately obvious signs of significant deterioriation.  McBride at Calculated Risk also thinks we're going to "just muddle through" for a while.

            I suspect that his expansion has had much less "irrational exuberance" in the middle stages than most, and that it's thus built on a far stronger actual consumption foundation.  It may have a few years to run yet.

            I am quite pessimistic for the next downturn, though.  We could see another replay of 2008 far more easily than I care to think about.

            -7.75 -4.67

            "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

            There are no Christians in foxholes.

            by Odysseus on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 08:27:12 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  I am no auricle but I think health care reforms (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          mimi, METAL TREK, Odysseus

          will mean many more people will try to start their own ventures.  That has been a real obstacle to anyone who has a good idea.  That's where the best new jobs will come from.  Also immigrants are often more inclined to start their own businesses so with immigration reform we will see improvements too.

          •  Sorry, spelling is not my best subject. I didn't (0+ / 0-)

            mean an ear.  You know what I meant I am sure.

          •  Young people used to start their own ventures and (0+ / 0-)

            forgo health insurance, because they could take that risk.

            They've lost the freedom to do that now.  Because, you know, "Justice" is bleeding 20 year old kids in the worst job market in 80 years so that boomers who had life handed to them on a platter can pay a bit less for insurance and Insurance Companies can have a guaranteed revenue stream.

            Ripping away five to eight percent of their income for junk "insurance" with deductibles that will prevent them from using it isn't doing them some kind of favor, and it certainly won't be the dawning of the imaginary new age of entrepreneurship ending the McJob nightmare that is the ruins of the American economy.

            Mr. Universe is a known degenerate Robotophile, and his sources include former Browncoat Traitors. What is their agenda in leaking top secret information about the Reavers and endangering us all?

            by JesseCW on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 02:31:09 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  If she had $380.00 a week unemployment checks (0+ / 0-)

        that's net $1520.00 a month. What's the monthly minimum wage checks ? Less or more? For a single adult? If you had a minimum wage job at a full-time rate to begin with? And not 30 hours with no health insurance.

        "Im Land der Schatten ist die Wahrheit eine Lüge"

        by mimi on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 11:54:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  minimum wage is often far lower. like $100/week. (0+ / 0-)

          Unemployment compensation is often set at a percentage of your previous job wages, with a hard minimum.  It varies widely by state, but in both states that I am familiar with, she was probably making 3x that in her last job.

          -7.75 -4.67

          "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

          There are no Christians in foxholes.

          by Odysseus on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 08:35:02 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Although this is not great news, it is good (12+ / 0-)

      that initial claims are down.  Millions of jobs have been created in the last few years, and for those millions of people, it matters.  I agree we are a long way from the "full employment" numbers of the bubble, and it may be years before we get there.  That said, there has beeen some improvement that matters for those who got jobs.

      But even if we got to the "full employment" numbers of the bubble sometime in the next five years, we still would live in a greatly stratified society.  The full employment numbers of 2007 (during the bubble)  were in an extremely stratified society.  

      Fuller employment, while extremely important, is not the end of the struggle.   The inequality that grew over 35 years (in an already unequal society -- the 60s really were not as great as they look from our vantage point.  It took Harrington to tell "people" that there was poverty, but poor folks knew) is so deep.

       

      Join us on the Black Kos front porch to review news and views written from a black pov—everyone is welcome.

      by TomP on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 08:50:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, Tom, "Things could be worse." n/t (7+ / 0-)

        "I always thought if you worked hard enough and tried hard enough, things would work out. I was wrong." --Katharine Graham

        by bobswern on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 09:13:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think gross inequlity is here (8+ / 0-)

          for the rest of my life.  I saw this coming in the Reagan years.  

          To a large degree, we are struggling so the servants have jobs and get paid more.  The whole concept that people not be servants is considered laugable.  

          Join us on the Black Kos front porch to review news and views written from a black pov—everyone is welcome.

          by TomP on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 09:19:13 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  We're at the point (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            TomP, YucatanMan, METAL TREK, JesseCW

            where we are going to have to throw off the shackles of an increasingly hereditary aristocracy that's globalized its assets.

            The GOP can't win on ideas. They can only win by lying, cheating, and stealing. So they do.

            by psnyder on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 10:11:12 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I think we risk becoming an increasingly (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            PorridgeGun, TomP, mimi, YucatanMan, JesseCW

            dysfuntional society all around--where infrastructure, health and education are starkly stratified, and most of the country produces few jobs of net beneficial impact to society (and those would be mainly service-oriented).  

            I don't think the 20th century model of prosperity could ever have happened again here. But as for the likely outcome now, it doesn't have to be that way.

            Governments care only as much as their citizens force them to care. Nothing changes unless we change -- George Monbiot.

            by Nulwee on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 10:32:03 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  I tend to think full employment is higher (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TomP, ColoTim

        than what we have seen during recent bubble economies.  My guess is that full employment is probably closer to 6% than 5%.  That being said, the increasing inequality in the distribution of income gains is very problematic, as is the inability of the bottom 50% or so to see any real wage gains over roughly the past 20 years.

      •  U3 vs. U6 (9+ / 0-)
        Millions of jobs have been created in the last few years, and for those millions of people, it matters.
        We might reach "full employment" with the headline U3 without ever coming close to "full employment " with the U6.

        None are so hopelessly enslaved, as those who falsely believe they are free. The truth has been kept from the depth of their minds by masters who rule them with lies. -Johann von Goethe

        by gjohnsit on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 10:52:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  A very important distinction. n/t (6+ / 0-)

          Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

          by Meteor Blades on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 11:51:14 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  you would think by now that the media (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bobswern, YucatanMan, gjohnsit

          would stop using the U3 as measurment standard. If I hear people saying the economy is getting better while I drive through streets and malls with boarded up, closed down small businesses, hordes of people begging on highways and in front of McDonalds, students who have nervous breakdowns, because they fail the shittiest of classes they have gotten in debt for to enroll in, (with even more f'n teachers who don't know how to make it work so that students can pass) ... you know... I just shut down the radio.

          It's baloney. Other than in restaurant businesses there are almost no independent merchands left, no bookstores, no independent food stores, no independent hardware stores... all the mom and pop businesses that kept immigrants surviviing are gone, malls are empty and torn down, which have been enthusiastically promoted in the nineties. What't the BS all about? Economy gets better?
          In your dreams, man. What do you produce? Despair, I would say and internet addiction to a non-material world.

          "Im Land der Schatten ist die Wahrheit eine Lüge"

          by mimi on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 12:15:46 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  U6 is "real." (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gjohnsit, bobswern, JesseCW

          U3 is our "feel good about ourselves number."

          It's annoying to me that politicians rely on U3 at all. It doesn't tell the real story.

          "The law is meant to be my servant and not my master, still less my torturer and my murderer." -- James Baldwin. July 11, 1966.

          by YucatanMan on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 12:23:41 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  When the blood loss is bad enough to lower the (0+ / 0-)

        blood pressure, the wound stops spurting blood.

        That doesn't mean the patient is doing better.

        Mr. Universe is a known degenerate Robotophile, and his sources include former Browncoat Traitors. What is their agenda in leaking top secret information about the Reavers and endangering us all?

        by JesseCW on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 02:32:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Layoffs haven't been a problem for a year (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bobswern, Eric Nelson, mimi, JesseCW

      The problem is the lack of full-time jobs with livable wages.
        It's time to change the focus of the debate.

       You know back in the Gilded Age the unemployment rate was very low at times as well. However, you can still have a nation of starvation wages with a low unemployment rate.

      None are so hopelessly enslaved, as those who falsely believe they are free. The truth has been kept from the depth of their minds by masters who rule them with lies. -Johann von Goethe

      by gjohnsit on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 10:48:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Liars figure, and figures lie. Maybe the 1,000's (0+ / 0-)

      of North Carolina unemployed that were dropped by the State Legislature passing of the draconian and clever declining of the federal emergency unemployment funding  "skewed" the numbers a bit?  The Tar Heel Taliban declined the Federal government's Tier 3 & Tier 4 emergency unemployment compensation funding for the long term unemployed which wasn't out of the pocket of North Carolina's budget, but rather funds from the Federal government to the state's long term unemployed.

      At last count, there were 70,000 at the first July 1 2013 drop, with another 70,000 to follow later in the year for a total of 140,000 overall.

      Yup...Liars figure, and figures lie.  To bad both political parties find it advantageous for their "C.Y. A." BS to partake in this big lie.

      “The comfort of the rich depends upon an abundant supply of the poor.” - Voltaire.

      by LamontCranston on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 09:37:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Occam's Razor suggests that... (6+ / 0-)

    it's because we're all Obama's slaves now.

    ;-)

  •  Regarding the unemployment rate, (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TomP, OIL GUY, MRA NY

    why does it remain so stubbornly high? The "baby boom" generation is now approaching retirement age and at least many of them are starting to retire now and will be retiring en masse in the upcoming years.

    Shouldn't the massive number of baby boomer retirements create vacancies in the work force, allowing many of the currently unemployed to find jobs replacing the retiring baby boomers?

    I would think that companies would have to be hiring many people to replace all of the retiring baby boomers, but I don't think this is really happening yet. The baby boomers started being born around 1946, meaning the older ones have begun to hit retirement age. I hope that in the upcoming years, the retiring boomers may open up opportunities for the unemployed.

    •  The baby boomers are retiring, and some early. (6+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Aquarius40, Nulwee, TimG831, MRA NY, ColoTim, fladem

      But that has not been enough and some boomers are working longer.  Some retired early because they had no jobs and could use social security.

      There are a lot of reasons.  The stimulus in 2009 was too smal, but it did pull us out of freefall.  Since 2010, there has been some austerity pulling demand out of the economy when stimulus was needed.  There are structrual problems with an economy that is so unequal.

      I tend to agree with Stiglitz and Krugman that there still is too little demand.  

      But I also think that we expect levels of UE to return to a bubble economy (below 5%) and that may not happen without a bubble.  I think there are fundamental problems that were masked by bubbles the last 20 years.  

      We might get to 6% by 2016.  Maybe 2015.  

      Join us on the Black Kos front porch to review news and views written from a black pov—everyone is welcome.

      by TomP on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 09:25:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Very simply stated... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Aquarius40, TimG831, MRA NY, ColoTim

      I understand it is because of the hording of cash. Companies are fearful to expand their workforce as demand still lags. We are stuck in a vicious cycle that the crazy rethugs don't want us out of until they are sure they can claim credit for any real recovery. So they will continue to hold back gov't spending and scream the deficit which they really don't give a crap about. But yes, many jobs will manifest as boomers retire which they can't stop. Although many are retiring later and some jobs will be consolidated and never return. But again, this is a very simple response. Many here are way more knowledgeable on the subject than I.

    •  TimG831 - In addition, some (I (4+ / 0-)

      wouldn't say many) of those positions opening up with the retirement of boomers aren't being filled. Some employers are either eliminating positions altogether or coopting them into 2 adjunct positions.

      •  There is only (0+ / 0-)

        so much cutting they can do. The boomers aren't dying they are
        retiring, so they still are responsible for significant demand which takes employees. Its been predicted for awhile that thereof will be opening up of jobs with the retirement of the boomers. Its just too large a number not to impact job availablility.

    •  40 more yrs of Boomer wealth inequality hitting! (8+ / 0-)

      There are 2 kinds of Boomers - those with retirement and those without. Multiply their negative impact by the lost gains of low interest rates expected to continue.

      Boomers with a healthy retirement (>25%) are and will continue to retire early BUT spend less. These are smart savers who are hampered by low interest rates and the end life of their investment curves so they're 'hoarding" and not spending like previous generations.  

      Most boomers with insufficient retirement (maybe as many as 50mil) are working and will continue as long as they possibly can, and the others are already out of work and will take employment opportunities along the way.

      It's reasonable to expect that Boomer wealth inequality will negatively impact every age group for the next 40 years!

      •  Yep, exactly right. n/t (6+ / 0-)

        Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

        by Meteor Blades on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 10:29:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Boomers Who Can Fund a Private Retirement (0+ / 0-)

          Are not necessarily "smart savers," are they? They might simply be people who were able to earn (or otherwise acquire) more during their lifetime and as a consequence had the luxury of saving.

          "I'll believe that corporations are people when I see Rick Perry execute one."

          by bink on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 10:58:35 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Boomers came up during a terrible recession... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            YucatanMan, bgblcklab1

            ...to parents of much less wealthy wealthy and much less economically stable middle class parents who weathered relentless waves of "early retirements".

            Boomers who survived Vietnam were impacted for their lives, those who served most apparently. Then there was the AIDS/HIV crisis years. This has been a generation stressed, fortunate in ways determined by the size of the cohort, unfortunate in other ways. Luck is a big factor. Oh and Boomers  did have employment benefits, albeit they started to be taken away but many had and will always have them. Plenty of people chased salaries or hopes of striking it rich in bubbles (e.g., tech, RE) and opted out of the long term jobs and incremental accumulation of pensions. It worked for a few. Disregarding virtue or lack of, the pure economics were very challenging and while "best practices" was not & never was a guarantee they were necessary IMO.

    •  In the coming years, yes. But so far... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      YucatanMan, Eric Nelson

      ...the numbers aren't as large as they might have been if the economy hadn't been bulldozed over the past few years. There is a difference of opinion about how big a percentage of the people who have left the labor force in the past few years are retirees. Somewhere between one-third and one-half of the total. Many of us now a full-benefits retirement age (66 if you were born 1946-54) are hanging on for as long as we can because our financial situation requires it.

      The key to seeing the real damage is to look at the job situation for prime working years, those aged 25-54. The percentage with jobs still hasn't returned to the pre-recession level.

      Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

      by Meteor Blades on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 10:29:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Baby boomers have been dealing with wage (4+ / 0-)

      suppression for the last 30-35 years as wages stagnated when productivity gains were decoupled from wages and were siphoned by the top 1%.  If they had defined pension plans those have been replaced with 401 (k)s which siphon off money to Wall St. with yearly fees.  The last forty years have seen out of pocket health care costs rise.  Lastly, they too have suffered job losses and have been forced to dip in their 401 (k)s to meet living expenses.  The baby boomers keep working because they can't afford to retire.

      "The working class mind is strange and unpredictable" -- Ty Lookwell

      by Illinibeatle on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 11:12:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Automation, outsourcing, efficiency, holdup... (0+ / 0-)

      Many people believe there is no single reason for why the unemployment rate remains "high", but rather, there are a combination of factors playing out simultaneously. Often, these same people believe that at some point, our economy fundamentally changed, but said change was masked by 20 to 30 years of bubble economies creating an artificially low unemployment rate.

      Phenomena such as outsourcing and automation are easy to visualize; when your job us shipped overseas or replaced with a computer, it isn't coming back.

      Worker efficiency simply means that in a loose labor market, an average worker is more likely to perform more work in a given hour than he otherwise might in a tight labor market.

      Holdup refers to the need for overlapping positions. When turnover is high, there is a period when an employer has to hire the replacement worker to work the same position as the departing employee at the same time. This creates statistical double employment for a brief time. Multiply this effect across the country through the year, and it accounts for not an insignificant amount of employment.

      Each of these phenomena, when analyzed individually, doesn't seem so great. But add them together, and you have a vicious cycle of a market unable to tighten.

      All of my OFA sponsored sock puppets and I approve this post.

      by NoFortunateSon on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 08:20:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Workers are desperate and scared. Companies (0+ / 0-)

      are pressuring them to work before they clock in, to work while clocked out for lunch, and to do a bit of work after the clock out.

      Workers are expected to show up at a moments notice, meaning there's no need for any "extra" overlap in the schedules.

      The working conditions for low wage workers in retail, food service, warehousing, construction ect are worse than they have been in living memory, and beating more out of each worker means they don't have to hire as many.

      Mr. Universe is a known degenerate Robotophile, and his sources include former Browncoat Traitors. What is their agenda in leaking top secret information about the Reavers and endangering us all?

      by JesseCW on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 02:37:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Just saw this morning that the market's down (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TomP, gjohnsit, Eric Nelson

    because Walmart's 2nd quarter numbers didn't meet expectations. That doesn't sound good. A lot of their shoppers are buying basic needs.

    "The human eye is a wonderful device. With a little effort, it can fail to see even the most glaring injustice." Richard K. Morgan

    by sceptical observer on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 09:26:15 AM PDT

  •  We're slogging away from the trough as predicted (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Eric Nelson

    ...and only head winds are reasonable to expect, especially important for all of us to understand since so many are and will remain without sails.

    Labor force and the macroeconomy

      -- Slower population growth and a decreasing overall labor force
         participation rate are expected to lead to slower civilian labor force
         growth from 2010 to 2020: 0.7 percent annually, compared with 0.8
         percent for 2000-10, and 1.3 percent for 1990-2000. The projected 0.7
         percent growth rate will lead to a civilian labor force increase of
         10.5 million by 2020. (See table 1.)

      -- The baby-boom generation moves entirely into the 55-years-and-older
         age group by 2020, increasing that age group’s share of the labor force
         from 19.5 percent in 2010 to 25.2 percent in 2020. The "prime-age" working
         group (ages 25 to 54) is projected to drop to 63.7 percent of the 2020
         labor force. The 16- to 24-year-old age group is projected to account for
         11.2 percent of the labor force in 2020. (See table 1.)

      -- By 2020, the number of Hispanics in the labor force is projected
         to grow by 7.7 million, or 34.0 percent, and their share of the labor
         force is expected to increase from 14.8 percent in 2010 to 18.6
         percent in 2020. The labor force shares for Asians and blacks are
         projected to be 5.7 and 12.0 percent, respectively, up slightly from
         4.7 and 11.6 percent in 2010. (See table 1.)

      -- Gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow by 3.0 percent
         annually, consistent with slow labor force growth, the assumption of a
         full-employment economy in 2020, and labor productivity growth of 2.0
         percent annually.

  •  And the labor participation rate (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gjohnsit, Eric Nelson

    just keeps drifting downwards, now at 63.4% (Jan 2008 it was 66.2%).
    http://data.bls.gov/...

    •  And with boomer retirements it will comtinue down (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Eric Nelson, JesseCW

      towards 60-62% by 2020 or so.  Outside of a huge (and I mean huge) immigration push, there is nothing that is going to raise the LFPR in the near future.

      •  As I have noted in our sparring over this... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Eric Nelson, YucatanMan

        ...in the past. If the economy improves overall, the LFPR will rise a few tenths of a percentage point in the short run. But the long-run is obviously different.

        Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

        by Meteor Blades on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 10:32:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The percentage of Boomers staying in the workforce (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Eric Nelson, nextstep

          is rising every year for the past decade.

           photo 65_zps8dc895a5.png

          None are so hopelessly enslaved, as those who falsely believe they are free. The truth has been kept from the depth of their minds by masters who rule them with lies. -Johann von Goethe

          by gjohnsit on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 10:59:14 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Agreed. But we're definitely on the verge... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Eric Nelson, YucatanMan

            ...of a big change. I'm leading-edge baby boomer at age 66, and I plan to work for at least another four years if I can. I know many others doing the same out of necessity or desire. But soon, as we move into our 70s, the deluge of retirements, even of those for whom Social Security will be the only real income, will inevitably come.

            Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

            by Meteor Blades on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 11:08:16 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Eventually Boomers will simply get (0+ / 0-)

              too sick to work. Of course they will also begin to die as well.

              None are so hopelessly enslaved, as those who falsely believe they are free. The truth has been kept from the depth of their minds by masters who rule them with lies. -Johann von Goethe

              by gjohnsit on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 11:15:16 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  So? (0+ / 0-)

            Notice that it is still well below the overall LFPR and thus using simple math we can determine that with a larger percentage of the population moving to ages that participate less (even if that rate is rising), it will still be an overall drag on the LFPR (just less of a drag than it would have been 10 years ago).

  •  well, despite all the bad in the economy - spelled (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Eric Nelson

    out well in the comments here - that graphic is some visual!

    especially, as many have noted, that it was achieved with all the obstruction.

    unfortunately, I remain one of the long term unemployed. :(

    "Don't Bet Against Us" - President Barack Obama

    by MRA NY on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 11:07:23 AM PDT

  •  conscription into the Reserve Army of Labor (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    srkp23, JesseCW
    Total claims are down over last year for three reasons: People previously receiving them have found jobs; they have exhausted their benefits; or, they have left the labor force.

    Warning - some snark may be above‽ (-9.50; -7.03)‽ eState4Column5©2013 "I’m not the strapping young Muslim socialist that I used to be" - Barack Obama 04/27/2013

    by annieli on Thu Aug 15, 2013 at 07:56:04 PM PDT

  •  This is not good news (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JesseCW

    It just means we have more people who lost their UEC benefits.

    See for yourself.

    This simply means that not only has there been NO NET JOB GROWTH, but the money paid out to help the families of the unemployed has dried up on those numbers cited above.

  •  Meanwhile, the workforce participation rate (0+ / 0-)

    remains at 30 year lows, and median household income and median hourly wage show no signs of recovery.

    Mr. Universe is a known degenerate Robotophile, and his sources include former Browncoat Traitors. What is their agenda in leaking top secret information about the Reavers and endangering us all?

    by JesseCW on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 02:20:34 AM PDT

  •  What counts isn't the unemployment rate (0+ / 0-)

    That is just joining the broken system.  What matters more is the emerging new system of cooperatives.  When we figure out how to bring cooperatives into existence on a large scale you will true economic reconstruction.

    "The real wealth of a nation consists of the contributions of its people and nature." -- Rianne Eisler

    by noofsh on Fri Aug 16, 2013 at 05:27:31 AM PDT

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