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8:11 AM PT: We had a publication error with the Live Digest this morning, so we unfortunately have to start fresh. I apologize for any comments from the earlier version that have disappeared.

8:11 AM PT: Special Elections: One of the biggest special elections of the year is set to take place on Tuesday in Florida, where Democrats are hoping to pick up a Republican seat left vacant by Mike Fasano, who was appointed Pasco County tax collector by Gov. Rick Scott in August. Our preliminary calculations say that this seat, Florida's 36th House District, went for Barack Obama 52-47 in 2012, which is one reason Democrats are optimistic about their chances here.

Another is that Fasano just crossed party lines on Friday to formally endorse Democrat Amanda Murphy, a vice president of investments at Raymond James, over fellow Republican Bill Gunter, a minister. (Fasano had previously said he was voting for Murphy.) And two polls of the race, one independent and one Democratic, both showed the contest a tossup. Democrats are deep in the hole in the Florida House, but you've gotta start somewhere, and HD 36 looks like a pretty good place to begin. (David Nir & Johnny Longtorso)

8:12 AM PT: NE-02: Republicans' refusal to keep the federal government running has, as Democrats have been hoping and predicting, yielded the party's first big post-shutdown recruit. Omaha City Councilor Pete Festersen, who had actually declined a bid against GOP Rep. Lee Terry over the summer, has now changed his mind and decided to run after all. Festersen said he was reconsidering just a few days ago, after Terry's now-infamous remark that "dang straight" he was going to keep collecting his paycheck in spite of the shutdown.

Festersen's move gives Democrats a real shot at picking up this Omaha-based seat next year, particularly since Terry won by a narrow 51-49 margin against an underfunded opponent in 2012. And he might also inspire other candidates to step forward. According to DCCC chair Steve Israel, Democrats expect a new contender to announce soon in AR-02 against sophomore GOP Rep. Tim Griffin. And, says Israel, candidates sound newly interested in WA-08, where Rep. Dave Reichert faced down three tough challenges from 2006 to 2010, and long-neglected NJ-02, where Rep. Frank LoBiondo has usually skated. (Both are seats Barack Obama won.)

As for the latter, The Hill suggests it could be attorney Bill Hughes, Jr., who is the son of ex-Rep. Bill Hughes. (The elder Hughes served for two decades until 1995, when he was succeeded by LoBiondo.) Last month, Hughes said he'd talked to the D-Trip, though he hasn't made up his mind yet. Another possibility might be state Sen. Jeff Van Drew, who's been discussed in the past but first has to win re-election next month.

8:34 AM PT: Nassau Exec: Siena College's new poll of the Nassau County executive's race offers bad news for Democrat Tom Suozzi, who's making a comeback bid, but there are good reasons to be skeptical here. The survey finds Suozzi trailing Republican incumbent Ed Mangano 52-35 ahead of next month's election, but in late August, Siena gave Suozzi a 42-41 edge. Has he really dropped 18 points since then?

What's more, if you look at the crosstabs, you'll see that Suozzi has just a 44-43 lead with non-white voters. Not only does that seem implausible, but he had wide leads with blacks and Hispanics in that earlier poll.

And while Siena, bless 'em, often polls races no one else will, they don't have the best track record. In September of this year, they had one of the worst misses we've ever seen in a poll of the Rochester, NY Democratic primary for mayor: They predicted the incumbent to win 62-37, but instead he lost 57-41. That's a pretty amazing 52-point error. And in 2009, just ahead of Suozzi's first matchup with Mangano, they had Suozzi up by 23; he lost by 386 votes. So exercise caution with these results.

8:54 AM PT: NJ-Sen: Seems like it'll be a relatively soft finish for Democrat Cory Booker in Wednesday's special election. Monmouth's final poll places him up just 10 points, 52-42, over Steve Lonegan, down a touch from his 53-40 edge at the end of last month. But Booker's always been above 50, and as we wrote recently, Lonegan is on track to finish right in line with how Republican Senate candidates have performed in New Jersey over the last quarter century.

9:04 AM PT: SD Mayor: SurveyUSA's new poll of San Diego's special mayor election next month finds Democrat Nathan Fletcher leading Republican Kevin Faulconer 32-28, with two more Democrats, David Alvarez (at 20) and Mike Aguirre (8) trailing. It's a bit of a bump for Faulconer, who was behind Fletcher 30-22 last month. Faulconer's also caught up a bit in the inevitable runoff, where Fletcher is now ahead 46-36, versus 44-30 in September.

9:11 AM PT (Darth Jeff): Boston Mayor: While recent polling shows state Rep. Marty Walsh trailing city Councilor John Connolly, Walsh has the advantage in one potentially critical area: endorsements from former rivals. In the last few days, Walsh has earned the backing of city Councilor Felix Arroyo, former School Committee member John Barros, and former state Rep. and third-place primary finisher Charlotte Golar Richie. With African-American and Hispanic voters up largely up for grabs in this race between two Irish-American contenders, the endorsements from three candidates who performed well in heavily minority areas during the primary could give Walsh a needed boost.      

9:28 AM PT: VA-Gov: It sure sounds like the Cuccinelli campaign has moved on from loser-talk to already-lost-talk:

Responding to the criticism, Chris LaCivita, a senior Cuccinelli strategist, said, "It's uncommon but not unheard of for what I consider to be poseurs to attack a campaign before it's over."

"It ain't over yet," he said. "We won't concede, and shame on those who do."

Saying your campaign "ain't over" is like insisting you're cool. It doesn't work that way—only others can attest to your coolness. The whole piece is a pretty brutal examination of how the Virginia GOP's hopes have fallen apart this year, thanks to Ken Cuccinelli's failings and a bitter divide over the shutdown, which has proven badly damaging to Republicans. And there are plenty more juicy quotes, including several on the record from GOP power brokers.

9:45 AM PT: NM-02: One more PPP House poll squeaked through late last week, and while it's for different clients (ProgressNow NM and the Center for Civic Action), it follows the same format that huge batch of surveys for MoveOn did. GOP Rep. Steve Pearce sports a mediocre 44-45 approval rating and leads a generic Democrat opponent 47-44. Given how conservative this district is—it went for Mitt Romney 52-45—that's a pretty positive sign for Democrats, who have two candidates running here: attorney Leslie Endean-Singh and former Eddy County Commissioner Roxanne "Rocky" Lara.

And Pearce just made a foolish shutdown-induced misstep on Facebook, exhorting furloughed government workers who are hurting for cash to... take out a loan! It's a particularly galling message given how poor much of Pearce's district is, which explains why his camp later deleted the post and blamed a staffer for it. The longer this shutdown goes on, it seems, the more opportunity Republicans have to really step in it.

10:04 AM PT: AR-04: It's a good get, but an incredibly tough district. Democrat James Lee Witt, who earned accolades as FEMA director under Bill Clinton, says he's "80 percent" decided on making a bid in Arkansas' 4th Congressional District. Witt says he's been recruited by so aggressively by (among others) Joe Biden and Clinton that he's told recruiters "to stop calling."

The seat is open thanks to GOP Rep. Tom Cotton's run for Senate, and it's ancestrally Democratic. But it went for Mitt Romney by a punishing 62-38 margin last year, and it would take a hell of a campaign to convince voters to return to their roots. State House Majority Leader Bruce Westerman is the choice of the GOP establishment, but other Republicans are also running.

10:56 AM PT: IN Ballot: Last week, we mentioned a poll from Republican pollster WPA Research regarding an amendment to the state constitution to ban same-sex marriage in Indiana that's likely to appear on the ballot next year. The survey, conducted on behalf of the Indiana Family Institute, found much higher support—62 percent—for the amendment than other polls had, but we had little information to go on.

Now, though, I've obtained a copy of the polling memo, so we can better compare the differences between WPA's poll and a recent poll from another GOP firm, Bellwether Research, which tested the amendment on behalf of pro-equality group Freedom Indiana and found voters opposed 48-45. WPA, it turns out, asked respondents if they supported the amendment, describing it with the exact wording that would appear on the ballot:

Only a marriage between one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Indiana. A legal status identical or substantially similar to that of marriage for unmarried individuals shall not be valid or recognized.
That second sentence, by the way, is a devious piece of work: It outlaws civil unions for same-sex couples without actually saying so. (Equality supporters have a lot of work to do to educate voters about that.) Bellwether actually used slightly pushier language:
Indiana currently has a law that defines marriage to be between one man and one woman. Next year, the legislature may vote to amend Indiana’s constitution to define marriage this way and then there would be a statewide referendum in the next general elect ion to approve the legislature’s actions. If the election were held today, do you think you would (Rotate) vote YES or vote NO to amend Indiana’s Constitution to define marriage as being between one man and one woman?

It's subtle, but that first sentence serves to remind voters that same-sex marriage is already illegal in Indiana—a reminder they won't actually receive in the voting booth. So you might be tempted to conclude that WPA's construction is preferable.

However, while their question wording might hew more closely to what voters will see, their sample composition raises some serious issues. WPA used a likely voter screen, which is something pollsters typically do just a few months for an election, not over a year out. (And in this case, the legislature hasn't even voted to refer the amendment to the ballot yet.) What's more, same-sex marriage is a notoriously fast-moving issue, making it even harder to try to capture a "likely" electorate so far in advance. So personally, I'd like to see WPA's question format used with Bellwether's sample.

11:03 AM PT: FL-Gov: This is kind of an amazing stat:

But Scott's actions indicate he'd like to be more popular. His political committee and the Republican Party of Florida together have paid Virginia-based pollster Tony Fabrizio more than $1 million since Scott took office.
And of that million-plus that Gov. Rick Scott and the Florida GOP have spent on polling over the last three years, how much has seen the light of day? Bupkes.

12:06 PM PT: AR-Sen, -Gov: It's another tough poll for Dem Sen. Mark Pryor, with Hendrix College (on behalf of local news site TalkBusiness) showing up ahead of Rep. Tom Cotton just 42-41. It's actually the first survey of the cycle for Hendrix (which is based in Arkansas), so we don't have trendlines to judge by. But what little polling we've seen has generally placed Pryor in the low 40s, which certainly isn't good for an incumbent Democrat seeking re-election in a red state.

Hendrix also has some numbers on the state's open gubernatorial race, where Republican ex-Rep. Asa Hutchinson is leading Democratic ex-Rep. Mike Ross 41-37. That's little changed from Hutchinson's 43-38 edge in February, though Ross had was not yet running at the time. Both of these contests will be difficult for Democrats, but at least Ross, who only represented a quarter of the state, still has the chance to up his name recognition and define himself. Pryor, who has served since 2003, is a by and large a known quantity at this point.

12:08 PM PT (David Jarman): Seattle mayor: There's little change in the new SurveyUSA poll (on behalf of KING-TV) of the Seattle mayoral race: they now have state Sen. Ed Murray leading incumbent Mike McGinn 52-32, instead of the 52-30 result they showed last month. McGinn's camp has previously issued some rumblings that their internal polls see it closer... if so, well, seems like the time to put them on the table would be now.

12:53 PM PT: CA-21: Oy vey. The federal government shutdown may be inspiring more Democrats to consider running for Congress, but sometimes, there are candidates you'd rather remain in the woodwork. Case in point: Businessman John Hernandez, who ran a very poor, underfunded campaign last year in California's 21st, says he's going to seek a rematch against GOP Rep. David Valadao. Fortunately, though, Democrats already have a legitimate candidate running in former congressional staffer Amanda Renteria.

But Hernandez was able to prevail in the 2012 primary over another, more capable Democrat, Fresno City Councilor Blong Xiong, so Renteria will have to take him seriously. However, Hernandez, just by virtue of his surname alone, had an edge in familiarity over Xiong (who is Hmong) in this Hispanic-heavy district, and on top of that, Fresno isn't actually in the district. Renteria, meanwhile, is also Hispanic, and though she actually lives a bit outside the 21st herself, she's a native of the southern end of California's Central Valley and thus shares its cultural affinities.

1:27 PM PT: MD-Gov: Maybe it's not the biggest deal in the scheme of things, but this story sure makes state AG Doug Gansler sound like a massive jerk:

Maryland Attorney General Douglas F. Gansler regularly ordered state troopers assigned to drive him to turn on the lights and sirens on the way to routine appointments, directing them to speed, run red lights and bypass traffic jams by using the shoulder, according to written accounts by the Maryland State Police.

When troopers refused to activate the emergency equipment, Gansler, now a Democratic candidate for governor, often flipped the switches himself, according to the police accounts. And on occasion, he became so impatient that he insisted on driving, directing the trooper to the passenger's seat. Gansler once ran four red lights with sirens blaring, a trooper wrote. Another account said he "brags" about driving the vehicle unaccompanied on weekends with the sirens on.

Click through for the full details—it's a really unflattering portrait of a government official acting utterly entitled and oblivious. Gansler is running against Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown and state Delegate Heather Mizeur in the Democratic primary for governor.

1:31 PM PT (Darth Jeff): VA Legislature: Two Northern Virginia Democratic candidates for the House of Delegates are releasing polls from Myers Research & Strategic Services showing tight races in their districts. In district 34, Democrat Kathleen Murphy leads Republican Delegate Barbara Comstock 48-45; Obama carried this district by a narrow 50-49 in 2012. In HD 87, Democrat John Bell and Republican incumbent David Ramadan are tied with 47 percent each; Obama won this district 56-42. Democrats are currently a super minority in the House with only thirty-two seats to the GOP and their Independent allies’ sixty-eight. If they want to build up more respectable numbers, unseating Comstock and Ramadan is a good place to start.  

1:46 PM PT: CT-05: Republicans may land a very intriguing candidate to take on freshman Rep. Elizabeth Esty in Connecticut's 5th Congressional District. Physician William Petit, who was the lone survivor of a chilling home invasion in 2007 that left his wife and daughters dead, said he's "50-50" in terms of making a bid for office. Petit publicly advocated against the repeal of the death penalty following his ordeal, but he hasn't run for office before and noted that he remarried just a year ago and has a new child on the way.

Esty won a very narrow open-seat race last year, defeating Republican Andrew Roraback 51-49. So far, though, the only Republican running this time is self-funding businessman Mark Greenberg, who has waged two unsuccessful campaigns for this seat before.

2:04 PM PT: Rutgers-Eagleton, meanwhile, somehow has Booker ahead 22 points, 58-36, but even the pollster doesn't seem to believe his own numbers. In an accompanying blog post, polling director David Redlawsk offers a lengthy examination of his data, and in particular compares his results to Monmouth's. But his lede says it all: "I think I know how the Gallup people must have felt when their 2012 vote models showed Romney ahead in the waning days of last year's election, something that was clearly not true."

2:13 PM PT: McAuliffe isn't making things easy, though, with a new report that he failed to disclose his investment with Joseph Caramadre, the now-infamous Rhode Island annuity scammer, in financial statements he filed when he first ran for governor in 2009. McAuliffe's attorneys say they think he wasn't obligated to disclose that investment, but they did not offer an explanation for their reasoning.

McAuliffe also responded by once again highlighting Cuccinelli's own disclosure failings, so that's telling in and of itself. But it's also a good reminder that Cuccinelli isn't very well-situated to attack his opponent over this kind of thing—though he certainly doesn't lack for chutzpah, so who knows what he might try.

2:24 PM PT: WI-01: Democrats, too, may get a new House candidate whose family was also scarred by horrific violence. (See CT-05 item above.) Emmy-winning filmmaker Amar Kaleka says he's forming a committee to explore a run against GOP Rep. Paul Ryan and will "likely" announce a bid next month. Kaleka's father was the president of a Sikh temple in suburban Milwaukee and he, along with five other worshippers, was murdered by a white supremacist who stormed the sanctuary last year. Kaleka says he's inspired to seek public office by the tragedy and specifically cited congressional inaction on enhanced background checks for gun buyers as a motivation for running.

2:50 PM PT: P.S. Analyst Matthew Isbell also offers a very detailed examination of the race and the district demographics.

2:51 PM PT (Darth Jeff): LA-05: With this Saturday’s jungle primary in this North Louisiana district fast approaching, Roll Call provides some background on this race. Unless there’s a major shock and someone clears the 50 percent threshold to avoid a runoff, the two candidates with the most votes, regardless of party, will advance to the November 16 runoff. It is widely accepted that the establishment-backed Republican state Senator Neil Riser be one of those candidates (though a surprise is always possible) but who his opponent will be remains an open question.

Operatives involved in the state suggest that of Riser’s thirteen opponents, the most likely to advance are Republicans Public Service Commissioner Clyde Holloway, state Rep. Jay Morris, rich guy Vance McAllister, or Democratic Monroe Mayor Jamie Mayo (also in the race are Democratic state Reps Robert Johnson and Marcus Hunter, but the article is pessimistic about their chances). Holloway, a former Congressman making his fourth comeback attempt since he lost his seat in 1992 (with a 2003 Lt. Governor defeat thrown in for good measure) has reportedly polled second for most of the race. However, Holloway has been dealing with recent problematic stories that he broke his pledge not to accept contributions from industries he regulates. This could give McAllister or the more Tea Party flavored Morris an opening, or propel Mayo if he can consolidate the district's Democratic vote.  

3:05 PM PT: FL-13: We have our first announced Republican for Rep. Bill Young's now-open seat in the St. Petersburg area on Florida's Gulf Coast. Former state Rep. Larry Crow, who's been out of office for over a decade, is entering the race, and he certainly seems like a throwback to a different age. In his announcement, Crow noted that he won the Sierra Club's "Legislator of the Year" award back in 2002, which is not the kind of credential many Republicans tout nowadays.

On the Democratic side, former state CFO Alex Sink has confirmed her interest but says she'll decide in "weeks, not days." One big problem for Sink, who recently declined a second bid for governor, is that she lives in the town of Thonotosassa, two districts away in FL-15. Meanwhile, two other Democrats have bowed out: Pinellas County Commissioner Ken Welch and former state House Speaker Peter Rudy Wallace both say they won't run.

3:28 PM PT: MI-Gov: Local tipsheet MIRS is teasing a new poll they commissioned from the Marketing Resource Group and Mitchell Research which purports to show GOP Gov. Rick Snyder up 50-36 over Democratic ex-Rep. Mark Schauer. All we have is a tweet with the toplines (the rest is behind a paywall), but there's no good reason to trust Mitchell, one of Michigan's many crummy pollsters.

Last year, you may recall that Nate Silver laid them out when Mitchell's chief called the race between Obama and Romney a tie in Michigan over the summer, insisting—contrary to all evidence—that black voters would form only 8 percent of the electorate. That prompted Silver to jab: "I've never heard of a pollster treating the demographic makeup of a state as essentially a matter of opinion." Oh, and as for African Americans? They constituted 16 percent of all Michigan voters in 2012.

3:57 PM PT: 3Q Fundraising:

CO-Sen: Sen. Mark Udall (D): $1.1 million raised, $4.1 million cash-on-hand

GA-Sen: Karen Handel (R): $286,000 raised, $310,000 cash-on-hand; Paul Broun (R): $280,000 raised, $450,000 cash-on-hand

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (6+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 08:10:05 AM PDT

  •  Ugh (0+ / 0-)

    You lost all of our witty early morning comments again?  

    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

    by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 08:13:03 AM PDT

  •  Reposting this this got eaten by the old thread (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff, WisJohn, Skaje, CF of Aus

    Big update to my state level election results spreadsheets

    In addition to having every statewide partisan d vs r race  from president down to agriculture commissioner by county (exact results) and CD (DKE+my own calculations) from 2006-present I've now added all the state legislative district results with whatever was officially published by state redistricting bodies, what DKE has calculated, and what I've done on my own for several states. Additionally, I've added the results for bodies like the Kentucky Supreme Court or New Hampshire's Executive Council. Also, I've compiled all of the 2012 results for those offices, so the page with the state legislative chambers will have the 2012 results for those offices in addition to any statewide elections by those districts. I also have a statewide precinct file for several states: AZ, MD, MN for 2010 and working on getting Michigan, NC 2012, and NH 2006-2012 and working on getting Kentucky 2011. These sheets calculate the 2012 PVI as well as the downballot PVI by district in comparison to the rest of the state. Additionally we now have pretty much every map for state legislature, supreme court districts, state board of education districts, etc in DRA.

    You can also find the link in my signature where you can either download the state by state files in excel or view them in google.

  •  Gwen Graham has now raised more in 2 quarters (23+ / 0-)

    than Al Lawson did in the entire 2011-2012 cycle. I bet she outraised Southerland for the second time. I feel really good about our chances in this race and this is a district where Charlie Crist should demolish Rick Scott.

  •  WI-Gov (0+ / 0-)

    Democratic State Senator Kathleen Vinehout, who is considering a primary challenge to Mary Burke, just posted a transcript of a speech that she gave at a progressive convention in Madison last month to her campaign website.

    While the speech primarily criticized Scott Walker and his allies for the damage that they've done to Wisconsin, this paragraph appeared to be a tongue-in-cheek attack against Burke:

    Well, I think they’ve succeeded. In post-recall Wisconsin, folks feel disillusioned, frustrated, hopeless, and you can easily see how politics can slip back into the spectator-sport Horse Race it was in 2010.
    Additionally, Vinehout appeared to compare her (potential) campaign against Walker to George McGovern's 1972 presidential campaign:
    It’s in times like this that I turn to Saul Alinsky—those of you with gray hair remember the Days of Rage at the 1968 national Democratic convention in Chicago. Alinsky said to the protestors, “Learn a lesson. Go home, organize, build power. At the next convention you be the delegates.”

    My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

    by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 08:37:00 AM PDT

  •  Just a friendly reminder (9+ / 0-)

    the Weekly Policy Open Thread is still up for all of you who want to discuss the shutdown, debt limit, and any dealmaking going on this week that doesn't pertain directly to elections:

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

  •  AR-02 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Any guesses who it is? Bill Halter has been mentioned around these here parts--most anybody would be better than Griffin though.

  •  NJ Senate - Booker underwhelming (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, BeloitDem, pademocrat

    Granting David's point that Lonegan will get the same numbers as other Republican candidates in the New Jersey, am I the only one who thinks a ten point victory (if that's what happens) would be a bit of an underwhelming win for Booker, particularly since it looks like Christie will beat that margin easily at this point.

    Lonegan should theoretically be weaker than Buono - he's a certified tea party nut job in a blue state. Not stronger.

    I don't live in New Jersey, so I'm watching from afar, but it seems like Booker has been running a weak campaign, particularly from someone who is being touted (not necessarily on DKE) as the "next Obama".

    •  I wish I knew why we care (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, askew

      He's going to win, we all agree.  He'd win by 15+ in a normal election (I'd say 99% of us agree).  

      Given that it's an October special election with nothing else on the ballot (i.e. no coattails to be had), why does everyone care what his victory margin is?

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 09:20:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Why we care about any election, I suppose (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        R30A, Gygaxian

        But you raise a good point. Booker doesn't need to run much of a campaign to beat Lonegan. So he's not. End of story. If he need to run a better campaign, he would (hopefully).

        •  Yup (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sulthernao, geoneb

          And circumstances played in.  Sure he could have done better, but the fact that some of this sill stuff has mattered (flirting with a stripper) is due to the election vacuum right now...it's the only Senate race going on anywhere.

          Also, I have no doubt that had this race been run in November 2014 he would have had tim to re-calibrate and would actually have done so.  

          Off topic, I wonder what % of people in NJ can name NJ's 2 Senators right now.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 09:27:21 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I think you are right in reality (0+ / 0-)

          But that is an incredibly dangerous game to play. If he wins with less than 10%, Booker goes in my book of people I hope never run for higher office due to campaigning incompetence.(along with Coakley and Feingold)

          Ethnically Bostonian lifelong New Yorker

          by R30A on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 09:28:19 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  You mean (5+ / 0-)

            Future governor Coakley? and "best shot to take down Senator Johnson" Russ Feingold.

            To me that's a bad game to play.  1 strike and you're out is a pretty bad rule.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 09:32:02 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I don't view them as strikes (0+ / 0-)

              More like 2004 playoffs yankees performances.

              Ethnically Bostonian lifelong New Yorker

              by R30A on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 09:33:14 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Which again, is incorrect (0+ / 0-)

                You don't dump Mariano Rivera because the team lost.  It's perfectly reasonable that people can learn and improve their performance at a later date.  

                Even if you don't like Coakley or Feingold both are pretty electable and shouldn't be cast aside for a single electoral loss, no matter the circumstances.

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 09:38:17 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  Feingold is not the Democrats best shot (9+ / 0-)

              to take down Johnson; don't conflate polling based on name recognition with a more thorough evaluation of candidate strengths, of which Feingold has numerous weaknesses, and which caused him to never really entrench himself even marginally in Wisconsin.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 09:35:07 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Who's better <n/t> (0+ / 0-)

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 09:39:07 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Ron Kind would be better, (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  sacman701, MichaelNY

                  even Chris Abele might be better (he has a sort of Kohl aura to me), to name two. Tom Nelson would also be a better candidate.

                  "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                  by ArkDem14 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 09:44:28 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  We can do better, as Baldwin has proven. (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    askew
                    •  okay, then where is someone more progressive (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      WisJohn, MichaelNY, jncca

                      who is also a quality candidate on the level of Baldwin?

                      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                      by James Allen on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 09:57:57 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I can't answer that, someone who is (0+ / 0-)

                        more familiar with the field could, I'm sure.

                      •  There really isn't at this time. (4+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        James Allen, BeloitDem, MichaelNY, jncca

                        Tammy was in the House for 14 years. Pocan could be the next Tammy, but not for at least 10 years.  We do have state legislators, but they are just that...only legislators.

                        Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.88, -3.64, "We all do better when we all do better." -Sen. Paul Wellstone (D-Minnesota)

                        by WisJohn on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 10:01:53 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  Russ Feingold, perhaps? (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        James Allen

                        The man has three statewide election victories under his belt, and he'd be running in a presidential year.

                        Only twice since the 17th Amendment passed has Wisconsin elected a Senator from a different party than it awarded electoral votes to. And both of those discrepancies can be attributed to third party candidates. If our presidential nominee in 2016 wins Wisconsin, so will our Senate nominee, no matter who it is.

                        You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

                        by Gpack3 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 02:37:44 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  I thought we were already discussing alternatives (0+ / 0-)

                          to him, too, but I do think he'd beat Johnson and probably be a better senator than Kind.

                          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                          by James Allen on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 03:40:00 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Better than Kind? (0+ / 0-)

                            Not so sure. He liked to oppose legislation from the left from purist motives, not because it would have been worse than the status quo. On the other hand, I loved his commitment to civil liberties.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 08:46:43 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  it would also mean sometimes we'd get a more (0+ / 0-)

                            progressive result. Does it matter that much if one dissents from the right on a few and the other dissents from the left on a few? Neither would be a 100% party line vote.

                            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                            by James Allen on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 09:34:07 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I don't know whether it would even out (0+ / 0-)

                            or who would have a worse record. As I recall, Feingold scored fairly poorly on some measures of liberal voting because of his purist opposition from the left.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 10:29:59 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                    •  Wisconsin is a moderate state (5+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      WisJohn, R30A, bjssp, pademocrat, MichaelNY

                      Two partisan ends divide it, but there are large numbers of moderates in the driftless area and the Fox Valley. It seems inappropriate to have two outspoken, extremely liberal senators or to make that the centerpiece of any desired candidate, as opposed to who would play best against Johnson. I think a more moderately liberal Democrat would be a good fit for the state.

                      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                      by ArkDem14 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 10:01:32 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Ron Kind. (3+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        ArkDem14, R30A, MichaelNY

                        I think he runs against RoJo in 2016.

                        Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.88, -3.64, "We all do better when we all do better." -Sen. Paul Wellstone (D-Minnesota)

                        by WisJohn on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 10:02:52 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Kind will do well (4+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          R30A, WisJohn, bjssp, MichaelNY

                          in the Driftless area and LaCrosse. Probably do better in the North part of the state than Baldwin. It'll make it very hard for Johnson to win, especially with Presidential turnout in Milwaukee, which is substantially larger and more Democratic.

                          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                          by ArkDem14 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 10:04:40 AM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

              •  I would disagree on your entrenchment point. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                redrelic17

                People (Democrats) stayed home in WI in 2010 because a.) they didn't care much for Barrett, and b.) they thought Feingold couldn't lose. In 2004, Feigold got 56.3% of the vote as Kerry was only getting 49.7%. Feingold was entrenched, but the Red Wave took him out.

                Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.88, -3.64, "We all do better when we all do better." -Sen. Paul Wellstone (D-Minnesota)

                by WisJohn on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 09:49:00 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Thank you (0+ / 0-)

                  Ron Kind would have lost in 2010 as well.

                  "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                  by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 09:51:00 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Ron Kind would have lost if? (0+ / 0-)

                    What do you mean?

                    Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.88, -3.64, "We all do better when we all do better." -Sen. Paul Wellstone (D-Minnesota)

                    by WisJohn on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 09:55:22 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Senate <n/t> (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      WisJohn

                      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                      by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 10:05:51 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                  •  We hardly know that (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    R30A, tommypaine, MichaelNY

                    If Kind had run an aggressive campaign, defining Johnson as an unqualified rich conservative trying to parashoot into politics on a radical agenda, and done this early, the results would have been pretty different. Feingold got sunk when he left Johnson alone in the summer of 2014, when Johnson ran an early positive ad campaign blitz that baked in a lead Feingold was never prepared to handle.

                    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                    by ArkDem14 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 09:59:18 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Ron Kind won reelection (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    R30A, tommypaine, MichaelNY

                    Feingold did not.

                    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                    by ArkDem14 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 10:02:22 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Maybe, maybe not. Would Kind have accepted outside (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    WisJohn, R30A, ArkDem14

                    help? Would he have made the other errors people attributed to Feingold, if I am remembering things correctly?

                    Wisconsin seems like the most frustrating of all our losses in 2010, without a doubt. We'll most likely get those seats back in IL and PA sooner rather than later, Corbett will seem like a footnote sooner rather than later, and even in Ohio, where we took a beating in the Senate race, Portman isn't a nutcase, and  Kasich accepted Medicaid funding. But in Wisconsin, the margins were close enough where it seems like we could have done things differently and won. No Act 10, Medicaid funding most likely, and a lot more breathing room both in 2012 and 2014 for the Senate. Plus, no Walker as a legitimate threat in 2016.

                    You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

                    by bjssp on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 11:19:01 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                •  I disagree; (4+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  R30A, Stephen Wolf, MichaelNY, jncca

                  in 2004 Republicans nominated an obscure state senator who raised little money and never got his message out. Meanwhile, many moderates were happy to vote for Feingold, because this was in the aftermath of his high profile finance reform and his "principled" libertarian stands on security debates. This was the high point of his personal popularity, and still his victory had more to do with a very weak, and very conservative Republican opponent.

                  Your point about turnout is simply patently inaccurate, since turnout was almost identical in 2010 to 2006, and the total votes cast were actually higher in Milwaukee and Dane county. It also flies in the face of Feingold's struggle to win reelection in 1998, a good year for Democrats nationally, against Mark Neumann, a gadfly social conservative who needed the 1994 wave just to get elected to congress and has since failed in every subsequent campaign. I don't think I even need to recount what a complacent disaster his 2010 campaign was, nor his numerous piss-poor decisions, not the least of which was having a high profile policy tantrum over the Financial reform bill.

                  "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                  by ArkDem14 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 09:57:22 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Fair enough. (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    ArkDem14

                    Though Michels wasn't even a state senator. He was a businessman, IIRC.

                    Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.88, -3.64, "We all do better when we all do better." -Sen. Paul Wellstone (D-Minnesota)

                    by WisJohn on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 10:05:29 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  My mistake. (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      WisJohn

                      Michels ran a terrible campaign, needless to say, and was outspent two to one by Feingold, who took that race a bit more seriously.

                      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                      by ArkDem14 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 10:09:35 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I get the feeling that (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        BoswellSupporter, MichaelNY

                        Feingold felt he was entrenched in 2010, hence why he was less serious than 2004. He never saw Johnson coming until it was too late.

                        Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.88, -3.64, "We all do better when we all do better." -Sen. Paul Wellstone (D-Minnesota)

                        by WisJohn on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 10:17:25 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

            •  For that matter, (0+ / 0-)

              I do not view candidates other than Coakley or Feingold as any less likely to win their elections were they to run.

              Ethnically Bostonian lifelong New Yorker

              by R30A on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 09:36:24 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I understand that (0+ / 0-)

                You're just saying they shouldn't be able to run again for anything.  Coakley can I guess retire after being Mass-AG and Feingold can remain on the sidelines.  

                Those are bad ideas based on a single loss.

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 09:41:26 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  Feingold won three Senate elections in WI (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            WisJohn, safik, Gpack3

            One of which was in a very tricky year for antiwar progressives in swing states (2004). His poor campaign in 2010 was inexcusable and inexplicable. But whatever that was, saying he's an incompetent campaigner belies the facts.

            •  Which facts? (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike, R30A, Stephen Wolf, MichaelNY

              Feingold underperformed every election, except hos original primary where he was brilliant.  After that, meh.

              The reality is Wisconsin Dem Senators have a history of winning reelection by huge margins, unless they run poor campaigns.

              That is a "fact" just like the fact that he won three elections.  The truth is Feingold is not the worst candidate ever and he isn't the best candidate either.  But it is also true that he could easily be a better candidate if he simply took in the legal money that everyone else does.  There is no advantage in his choice not to, nor any principal to lose over.

              Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

              by tommypaine on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 12:31:33 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  I think it says something when running 10-15 (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, MichaelNY, askew, HoosierD42

        points ahead of your opponent in a special election in October the media narrative is "Democratic in disarray!", "Lonegan cutting Booker off at the knees!", "Booker plummeting in polls!"

        Weigel compared his campaign to Coakley's 2010 mess, so even liberal commentators are guilty of falling into a narrative.

        If Booker wins by 10+ and TMac wins by 5+, I will take that as a good sign we're building momentum for a midterm that will give us a net gain of House seats and minimal or no net losses in the Senate.

      •  We care b/c Lonegan is an insane degenerate (8+ / 0-)

        Something has gone wrong when a guy unfit even to walk my dogs finishes at or near Generic R in the actual vote.

        Lonegan is a worse human being than Todd Akin, and Todd Akin ran in a far more conservative state than Lonegan.  And yet Booker will underperform Claire McCaskill.

        That speaks poorly of Booker's campaign.

        And that matters because a blowout win at this moment makes a real statement in a time of high national anxiety, and also because it undermines Booker's national prospects down the road.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 09:38:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  NJ doesn't have blowouts (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          askew

          It's sold D but its not 70-30, never has been and never will be.  

          it's an October race, it's just not going to be a blowout...even if he ran a perfect campaign.

          And his national aspirations won't be impacted by a 2013 special election race.  No one will point to this as his defining moment, nor should they.

          He needs to actually do something in the Senate to have any sort of national impact, and he hasn't been elected yet.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 09:44:20 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Agreed. (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, MichaelNY, askew

            If he's put up against a firebreather in his re-election I think comparing his performance to McCaskill is a fair comparison.

            It's not really the same scenario in my opinion.

            Geez, 10+ up a week out from a crappily-timed special and it's this huge pile on Booker meme going around. Democrats have such an enormously high bar to overcome compared to Republicans it's no wonder Dems in disarray is such a common thing to hear.

          •  I agree and disagree (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            About the disappointment that a 10 point Booker win should result in. Because while a 12 point loss seems to be the norm for a NJ Senate candidate, Booker is/was considered to be a strong candidate and Lonegan is an extremely conservative candidate. If this guy got to the Senate he'd be right there with Mike Lee and Ted Cruz as the body's most bombastic demagogues.

            But I don't think this will have a huge effect nationally. It reduces the stock of Cory Booker going forward but I don't think there'll be anything beyond that.

        •  Worse than Todd Akin? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca

          I think you're overstating things a bit there. He actually does have a rather inspiring personal story (meant to post it over the weekend). If it weren't for his positions on the issues and his thinly veiled racism, I'd actually kind of like him (which, granted, is a bit of an "other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play" kind of thing).

          "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 - ! | Yard signs don't vote.

          by gabjoh on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 10:06:06 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Link to that rather inspiring personal story (0+ / 0-)

            Article here.

            (Was wondering why the site looked kind of broken, but realized I've just started using the wonderful and security-enhancing NoScript on here, so I've added the dailykos.com exception and now things should work well, hopefully?)

            "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 - ! | Yard signs don't vote.

            by gabjoh on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 10:07:51 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I'm completely underwhelmed (4+ / 0-)

            Lots of people have compelling life stories and run for office.

            Many of them lose.

            Lonegan's rhetoric isn't mildly off-putting, he demonstrates a clear lack of personal character.  Whatever hardships he had, well join the club, there are many who've had it at least as bad and don't behave like him.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 11:17:02 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Undermine Booker's national prospects (0+ / 0-)

          Good.

          "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

          by Paleo on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 12:47:19 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Agreed (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, Mark27, jncca

      Guy was not ready for the increased scrutiny & criticism of a campaign for federal office.

      Lonegan is unelectable in NJ because of his views. But it's hard to argue he hasn't run a good (if doomed) campaign. He's managed to make the race about Booker's scandals (minor as they may be) and exaggerations/inventions of stories about "the streets" that Booker tells. He's managed to take some serious shine off of Booker, which is probably the best he could have hoped for in this race.

      •  And honestly (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        levlg, Mark27, ehstronghold, MichaelNY, jncca

        It's perfect prep for Booker should he in the future face someone more substantial.  He was basically hit with the types of things that a credible candidate may have won with (in very perfect circumstances), but the guy hitting him was unelectable.

        So hopefully live and learn.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 09:33:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Right, and I wonder... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        How a better candidate than Lonegan might have fared against Booker. I can't see a Republican actually beating him, but they might have come closer than expected.

    •  Curious about turnout (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, WisJohn, Stephen Wolf, askew, jncca

      New Jersey has had pretty consistent raw turnout numbers in midterm elections over the past two decades; the last six gubernatorial elections have all been between 2.2 million and 2.5 million voters. The last four midterm Senate elections are similar - turnout between 1.9 million and 2.3 million (the last time it dipped below 2 million was 1990). Booker could be facing the lowest number of voters that New Jersey has seen in decades, which is undoubtedly not helping his margins any.

    •  Booker and his "post-modern politics" (5+ / 0-)

      backers are the only one calling him the "Next Obama", which is a pipe dream in of itself.

      Lonegan's racist campaign is actually succeeding in getting him a solid base of support because of its populist undertones and the fact that much of Booker's support was always just facile and not very deep, and it doesn't seem like he'll even be able to inspire high turnout in Newark (even though he will win it overwhelmingly). But anyway, for all his radical conservatism (he's to the right of even Scott Garrett), and controversial statements, Lonegan's succeeded to a small degree, at least among Republicans and conservative-leaning independents (who are more likely to turnout), in portraying Booker as dilettantish, ineffective, preoccupied, and egotistical, and again, this has been effective at getting conservatives solidly behind Lonegan and even winning a good chunk of blue collar moderates. And my observation is that Booker has made it easy for him to pull this crafty bullshit, with its misogyny, racism, and thinly veiled homophobia, because Booker's been pretty laissez faire about the whole race and even played into Lonegan's narratives, which suggests a tendency for tone-deafness, the same that we saw when he very prominently attacked a centerpiece of Obama's reelection strategy in a national news interview that then exploded in replays elsewhere and across the written media world.

      I have a post on the matter that I've been meaning to write; not on Booker but the type of politics he embraces in many ways, but I'll say it for the policy group.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 09:32:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I would love to read that post (0+ / 0-)

        I'll have to keep an eye out for it.

        "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 - ! | Yard signs don't vote.

        by gabjoh on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 10:10:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  not really following the campaign (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp, HoosierD42

        but Booker seems to be the Ralph Northam of NJ. My opponent's an idiot, his party is unpopular, I can just coast.

        SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 10:18:01 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Booker's running on his celebrity (0+ / 0-)

        And he's run a lousy campaign despite all his money.   He just doesn't inspire labor, progressives, even minorities.  Not quite, but it's almost as if Mark Zuckerberg was running for senate.

        "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

        by Paleo on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 11:26:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Good Grief! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew

      It's a special election on a WEDNESDAY in October.

  •  NJ elections (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff, gabjoh, Stephen Schmitz

    comment got deleted in the old thread but wanted to point out OG is correct in R rationale for 2 separate elections for booker and christie.

    sorry I've been dormant here for so long. I was at a super PAC for the last several months just focused on NJ lege races. the fear for christie was that holding both elections on the same day would give Rs no chance down ballot.

    Managed small races in VA and DC. Worked political for DGA. Follow me @bharatkrishnan if you want to be my friend.

    by Bharat on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 09:19:51 AM PDT

  •  NJ needs to GOTV and not take this special (4+ / 0-)

    election for granted. GOP haters are fired up right now and that's a real threat.

    Vote in NJ Wed. Oct 16th for Cory Booker US Senate.

  •  Reposting: VA HD-34, Democrat Murphy takes lead! (19+ / 0-)

    Murphy now up 48-45 in her newest internal.

    Linky here to Blue Virginia:  http://www.bluevirginia.us/....

    I'm active in this campaign, as it's my district and I'm on the local Democratic committee, and I learned of this poll from Kathleen's campaign manager on Friday night.  They sent out a fundraising e-mail mentioning only a 3-point lead, but I didn't know they were going to do a full release like this, and so didn't mention on the weekend open thread.

    This poll is the real deal, not an "informed" ballot or any other tricks.  A couple weeks ago, they had not even decided whether to poll again.  But I think the shutdown made them decide it's worth seeing if there's any movement from it.  I suspect they released for fundraising and base turnout enhancement.  Earlier polling is for developing strategy and held close.  But with 3 weeks to go, there are no significant strategic decisions left to make.  But donors and voters always like to jump on a winning bandwagon, so it helps to demonstrate you're actually winning.

    This is a tough race, but understand a lot of federal employees are furloughed here, and this is our chance to speak out in the most effective way one can speak out, at the ballot box.  If we can beat Comstock and knock off a few other Delegates in addition to sweeping the state offices, that sends a message to the national GOP from the Beltway's own backyard.

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 09:34:43 AM PDT

    •  Will this fire up her campaign workers more? (0+ / 0-)

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 09:38:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well sure, but that's a non-issue (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh, MichaelNY

        Her campaign "workers," assuming you mean staff, will do what they were going to do anyway.  It's just the job.

        But volunteers, donors, and rank-and-file sporadic voters and potential crossover McAuliffe voters are now all more likely to get behind Murphy, doing more, giving more, and giving us more votes.

        Keep in mind even in this poll, we see 6% of respondents crossing over and going McAuliffe-Comstock.  We always knew this was a problem, that McAuliffe would win the district but some of his voters would stick with Comstock.  I've always been saying to everyone, with their agreement including the campaign staff's, that McAuliffe has to win the district by double-digits for Murphy to have a real chance to win.  Now that's happening.

        And yes this all looks like a shutdown effect.  I'm expecting other races in NoVA and perhaps Hampton Roads look better for us now than a couple weeks ago.

        With only 3 weeks to go, it's very hard for Comstock and others to reverse momentum, especially since Cuccinelli is running such a bad campaign at the top.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 09:45:20 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Curious (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh, LordMike

          Is McAuliffe able to do anything down-ballot (cut ads, appearances)?  Or would that hurt more than help?

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 09:50:26 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  He needs to focus on his own race (5+ / 0-)

            If he were up 15-20 points, then maybe he can afford to divert some attention to help Kathleen.

            Keep in mind HD-34 is McAuliffe's own district, he and I are members of the same local Democratic committee.

            But Terry is up single-digits statewide, not double-digits.

            And if he were up double-digits statewide, he'd be up by 15-25 points in the district, in which case Kathleen is winning without any further help from him.

            That state Dems are running a coordinated campaign, well-organized by a solid TMac operation, is help enough.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 10:00:23 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  HD-34 (0+ / 0-)

      I would very much like to see Comstock lose.  Not only because I was a paid volunteer for Margie Vanderhyde's 2009 campaign, but because she is one of the scumbags who was politicizing the DOJ when W was President.

      You're an odd fellow, but you do make a good steamed ham.

      by Samara Morgan Dem on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 10:43:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Hopefully this keeps up! (4+ / 0-)

      I want nothing more than to see Comstock lose her race and in turn lose her place as Wolf's chosen successor.

      Although probably not more than seeing Dems take all three statewide seats ;)

      Good luck DCCyclone!

      •  This inspired me to give $100 more and canvass... (6+ / 0-)

        ...on Sunday.  I was on the fence whether to try to make time to canvass this weekend, but then this poll inspired me.

        I had seemingly meaningless anecdotal evidence in the form of a lot more Murphy yard signs since the shutdown started.  That stuff doesn't mean squat as a rule, and yet the timing was quite a coincidence that the signs popped up in so many places in a hurry just this month.

        But I think this poll shows that there's real anger toward the GOP here right now, and Comstock is among those paying a price.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 11:15:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  They posted another one (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff, KingofSpades

      47-47 tie in HD-87. I'm not sure what to think of that one - I was expecting the 87th to be the most likely pickup.

      •  Hope they also release a poll of Rust vs. Boysko. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, James Allen

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 01:35:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Nothing is so easy (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        None of our pickup opportunities is very far apart from each other in likelihood.

        HD-34 is McAuliffe's home district, that helps Murphy here.  You can see that in the Governor's race test ballot in the two districts.  But yeah absent the Governor's race, Ramadan would seem a less difficult "out" than Comstock.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 02:42:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I guess Marty Walsh must (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh, Gygaxian

    be the more progressive candidate in the Boston mayoral race, given that all the more progressive, non-traditional candidates have endorsed him.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 09:38:40 AM PDT

  •  I guess PPP isn't releasing their NC poll (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY

    Which is odd because I don't remember them ever doing that for a public poll where they already took question suggestions, but that was 11 days ago and they neither published it nor said anything on twitter about it. I tweeted them asking about it but got no reply.

  •  With Republicans starting to acknowledge (20+ / 0-)

    that Ken Cuccinelli is going to lose, I found it interesting how some of them are explaining it:

    Stewart and other Republicans faulted Cuccinelli’s campaign for focusing too much on attacking McAuliffe’s business dealings and not presenting a compelling theme around which voters can coalesce...

    “The problem is there’s no central idea behind the Cuccinelli campaign,” Stewart said. “What Ken should be projecting is an absolute focus on the economy and his tax plan. But his message is muddled.”

    Coby Dillard...said “There’s so much focus on Terry McAuliffe, the campaign almost forgot to talk about Ken Cuccinelli. He’s not able to build a coalition outside of the hard Republicans who were going to vote for him anyway.”

    Shaun Kenney does not agree with those Republicans who see Cuccinelli as too conservative for purple Virginia. Rather, he said, Cuccinelli has been constrained at a moment when standing tall for his long-held principles would have served him well.

    Cuccinelli’s campaign “won’t let Ken be Ken,” Kenney said. He noted Cuccinelli’s decision not to appear with Sen.Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) at a recent dinner in Richmond.

    On the contrary, I see three reasons McAuliffe will win:

    1) Cuccinelli is too conservative for a state Obama won twice

    2) McDonnell's scandal has hurt the GOP image in the state

    3) The national mood is tilting Dem at the moment

    That pretty much tells you everything you need to know.  While the latter two should be apparent to all Republicans except the ones with their heads in the sand, it's only professional GOP concern trolls like former Congressman Tom Davis who seem to recognize the first reason.

    To the rest of them, conservatism cannot fail, no matter how blue the state or district.  It simply isn't articulated well enough by flawed candidates, and that is why they lose.

    Admittedly, a lot of the main-page dailykos crowd probably believes the inverse of that about liberalism even in red states/districts.  Thank god for DKE.

  •  Pittsburgh Mayor/City Council (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh, MichaelNY

    Despite his GOP opponent spending most of his time not even in the country, Dem nominee for Pittsburgh mayor Bill Peduto is still fundraising like crazy; due to a quirk of campaign finance laws, contribution limits for this race have been removed. Even if he doesn't need it for himself, he plans to use it to make his life easier once he becomes mayor and spend it on council races.

    Like most jurisdictions with one party rule, the all-Dem City Council is factional, and the divide has been four in the "Peduto" wing, four in the "Ravenstahl" wing, and one swing vote.  Recently, the swing vote resigned, and a Peduto-aligned candidate is the Dem nominee in the special against an R and three independents.  If his allies win that seat and the two others they are trying to hold (against token GOP opposition) then he can become mayor with a 5-4 majority of friendly council members.  

    http://www.post-gazette.com/...

    •  It's not a quirk. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, ProgMD, MichaelNY

      Here's a good story on what happened; in short, the self-funding limit was breached, however briefly, and this is what the law said should happen.

      (I was counsel to Wagner in these proceedings.)

    •  That sounds reminiscient of (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Chicago in the 1980s, during the "council wars" between Harold Washington Democrats and Ed Vrdolyak Democrats.  

      The Vrdolyak faction was usually victorious until a lawsuit forced some districts to be redrawn, producing first a tie that Washington could break and then a majority for Washington after he won reelection.

      38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 10:42:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  What are the ideological axes in this, if any? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      So Peduto seems to be for "reform", but that can mean a lot of different things (or nothing at all).

      "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 - ! | Yard signs don't vote.

      by gabjoh on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 11:07:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You can pretty much boil it down to (4+ / 0-)

        cleaning things up and modernization.  The outgoing mayor's decision to run for reelection was fueled in large part by a scandal involving the police department, and he was seen as contributing to an ongoing culture of corruption and machine politics in city government.  Peduto has pledged to pretty much clean house, make sure people have positions based on competence not politics, and remove "undue influence" on City Hall.

        A lot of his other reforms are based on specific local issues (parking reform is a big one, and so is the use of green construction) but can be summed up as trying to use modernize and update the city for the 21st century; his view is that as the city has changed rapidly over the past few decades some things haven't kept up.  He's written something like 100 policy papers and he did a Reddit AMA a while back on local issues; he at least definitely talks the talk on reform.   I'm looking forward to seeing what he can actually accomplish.  

  •  Rick Santorum backing Walt Rogers in IA-01 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Skaje, WisJohn, MichaelNY, jncca

    Rogers also rolled out endorsements from a bunch of fellow Iowa House Republicans recently.

    Three Republicans are currently running in IA-01, and one or two more are expected to join the race. Five candidates are seeking the Democratic nomination to replace Bruce Braley.

    Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

    by desmoinesdem on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 10:14:33 AM PDT

  •  That Siena poll (10+ / 0-)

    might set a record for largest miss of any real pollster ever.  52 points!  That tops even Rasmussen's HI-Sen 2010 poll (they found Sen. Inouye up only 53-40 on perennial candidate Cam Cavasso...Inouye ended up winning 75-22, for a miss of 40 points).

    Out of all the various statistics included in any poll, the one I've started completely ignoring is the margin of error.  Newspapers almost always report it second though right after the toplines, and treat it like some sacred thing (he's within the margin of error!)  They treat polls like facts, and that's the problem.

  •  Texas Weekly Elections Recap (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    http://www.burntorangereport.com/...

    Biggest move of the week: Kinky Friedman is back. And we all still dislike him.

    No official retirements, only one confirmed for re-election. So, we wait.

    SSP alumni, 28, Male, Democrat, TX-14 Elections Blogger for Burnt Orange Report. Collection of Texas elections diaries can be found here

    by trowaman on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 10:58:31 AM PDT

    •  "Watchdog for our finances" (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      trowaman

      seems to be a popular image/stance for state and local controllers/comptrollers.  Maryland Comptroller Peter Franchot regularly (though not every week) puts out an e-mail newsletter called "The Weekly Watchdog", with a cartoon image of a bulldog on top.

      38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 11:04:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Hillary Clinton to do an event with McAuliffe (12+ / 0-)

    on Saturday, according to Christina Bellantoni.

  •  Interesting Salon article (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17

    http://www.salon.com/...

    Talks about possible splits in both parties.

    Tea Party/Establishment Republicans and "Wall Street/Main Street" Democrats, and the electoral consequences.

    The language in the article is probably more receptive to main pagers but I'm just interested in the conversation here.

    •  Huh, I wrote a comment here on this topic. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      VAPersian, fearlessfred14, gabjoh

      I'm glad I'm not the only one to think that the Democratic Party is not immune to a populist-neoliberal divide.

      http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

      by redrelic17 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 11:22:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Rosenberg may well underestimate the neo-liberals (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MrLiberal, jncca

        Particularly since they do have a lot of support in suburban areas, and have up to this point been fairly good at winning over voters alienated by Tea Party types. Maybe we could make Montana competitive with a populist candidate, but it might be at the expense of Colorado or Florida.

        Also, I think Rosenberg makes a mistake in assuming that all Blue Dogs are neoliberals; just as it's possible to be a right-wing populist, it's possible to be a centrist populist. Heitkamp, Tester, Pryor, and Barrow come to mind. On the other side of the coin, we've got lots of staunchly progressive politicians who I wouldn't call populist (Jared Polis comes to mind).

        Male, 23, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

        by fearlessfred14 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 11:50:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  My main disagreement with the article (12+ / 0-)

      is that it tries to set up the split in the Dem party as anywhere near as severe as the split in the GOP.  I could see Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz representing drastically different wings of the Republican Party.  A split is unlikely, but at least within the realm of possibility (and plenty of the tea partiers have called for it).  But Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren doing the same for Democrats?  Please.

      The fact is, Democrats don't really have a functioning version of a tea party caucus.  We've had a few that have ended up in Congress, like Cynthia McKinney and the first version of Alan Grayson (don't get me wrong, I like the new version).  But with Republicans, it seems like most of the freshmen in solidly GOP seats are extremely anti-establishment, and their numbers are growing.

      If anything, the Democratic Party is getting more and more unified these days with the congressional caucuses rapidly shedding the most conservative members over the past 10 years.  The momentum has shifted quite a bit to the left in Dem politics since the 90s, and I think that alone eliminates any chance of some great Dem schism caused by the more leftwing elements.  To an extent, progressives have won the internal battle, given that Elizabeth Warren is seen as a mainstream Democrat these days.

      Ultimately, that article read like more of the "Liberals dislike Obama" stuff when polls show that liberals have over 90% approval for the president and are among his most loyal constituency.  Somehow that single digit of liberal disapproval has an outsized presence online.

  •  NJ-SEN: Booker leads Lonegan 58-36 (8+ / 0-)

    according to Rutgers/Eagelton poll.

    Definitely a battle of the polls to see who is accurate. This one is the outlier right now.

    •  I wonder if this (6+ / 0-)

      will get as much attention as the "OMG! It's so close!" polls that have Booker up by 10-12.

      Seriously, a lot of this concern is misplaced.  Booker doesn't need to win by a massive landslide to become Senator, and even the smaller poll margins are far too wide for Lonegan to realistically overcome at this point (and I wonder if he's even really trying to win given how he's been campaiging.)

      38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 11:35:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Agreed (7+ / 0-)

        I wonder what margin people(specifically pundits) think Booker should win by that wouldnt be considered a failure?

        Menendez won by 20 last year and maybe the logic is Booker is stronger than Menendez and Lonegan worse than Kyrillos(who is at least a state senator), so the margin here should be the same or larger.

        But you're talking about a special election in an off year on a Wednesday vs. an incumbent with presidential level turnout.

        Beyond that, as I noted, I think there was one double digit Senate win in NJ since 1984: Launtenberg by 14 in 2008. Again, an incumbent in a presidential election year. And Booker might match that.

    •  Eagleton is the most respected poll in NJ (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      Between it and Monmouth, I'd put my money on the margin being closer to Eagleton.

      "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

      by Paleo on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 02:14:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WI-01: Son of Sikh temple victim to challenge Ryan (11+ / 0-)

    You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

    by Gpack3 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 12:08:43 PM PDT

  •  WaPO poll: Disapproval on budget negotiations (6+ / 0-)

    increasing for everybody, but most for congressional GOP.

    WaPo polled before the shutdown, last week, and again this week. GOP disapproval went from 63 to 70 to 74 now. Obama's disapproval has gone from 50 to 51 to 53.

    Dem disapproval went from 56 to 61 in the last two weeks.

    Not great numbers of anyone, but worst for the GOP. Also, I would expect some recovery for Obama if a deal is cut, but I dont know if the same is true of congressional Ds or Rs.

    I think this highlights the predicament for the GOP in striking a grand bargain. Doing so would help their numbers overall, but would also help Obama's numbers.  Not great to help Obama's numbers, which are already better than yours.

  •  When Was The Last Big Wednesday Election? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, WisJohn, MichaelNY, jncca

    Does anyone know?

    And by big I mean for either a statewide office, a Congressional seat or even a state leg seat somewhere. Not a city council race in Sticksville, Wyoming.

  •  Sen. Kathy Stein (D-Lexington) (8+ / 0-)

    appointed Circuit Court Judge by Gov. Beshear. Special election to be held December 10. No need to worry- this one of the strongest Dem seats in the state in downtown Lexington. Nominations in Kentucky are determined by county parties- so the Fayette County Democratic leaders in the district will essentially choose the next Senator here, who will serve until 2016. The cn2 article mentions some potential candidates. And if one will remember, the 2012 Senate map switched Stein from an odd seat to an even seat, which would have put the district without a local Senator for two years, but the maps were thrown out. The new map packs as many Dems as possible in the seat.

    http://www.kentucky.com/...

    http://mycn2.com/...

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 12:43:12 PM PDT

    •  I kinda wonder (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James L

      Why Stein fought to have the old map overturned only to leave so soon after.

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 03:46:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It is because Kentucky has a pension system (0+ / 0-)

        that gives a major increase in lifetime benefits to members that take high paying state jobs as their last position in Kentucky government.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 07:07:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  So no wonder so many Senators took Beshear's bait. (0+ / 0-)

          Even David Williams, who hated what Beshear did, took that sweet offering.  Though, to be fair, he just had a crushing defeat and was becoming an increasing liability to the state GOP.

          "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

          by KingofSpades on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 08:17:39 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Demography is destiny? (4+ / 0-)

    Just read an interesting (in a, wtf sense) paper published thirdway.org: http://www.thirdway.org/...

    So, the paper says there are seven "Illusions" that demography is destiny followers believe, and why dems can't depend on them in the future

    The first Illusion is that the new electorate is predominantly liberal.  The paper disputes this by showing polls of how each racial group identifies itself ideologically, and then they cross reference this with how each group voted in 2012, making the argument that Obamas 73% win with asians was entirely dependent on ALL moderates, liberals and 15% of conservative asians voting for Obama, and making the case this this ideological coalition cannot be depended on in the future.

    Of course, this analysis is BS, because ideological identity is very fluid, someone may consider being conservative as being lock step with the republican party, but someone else may believe conservatism is not letting the state interfere with who wants to get a marriage license.

    I won't go point by point with how this piece is shoddy at best, but I will point out my favorite illusion, which is #7:

    Illusion #7 is that the presidential map will continue to favor democrats.

    Of course, I don't think that the 2012 presidential map is forever locked in (I mean, Georgia and NC are going to become true swing states soon!), but the ways the author argues that electoral maps don't lock in is that blue states have republican governors (examples include NJ, ME, MI and PA).

    Of course, we all know why this line of thinking sucks, but the thing that blows my mind is that the author says this is due to ticket splitting.  Nowhere does the author mention that many states have off-year elections and that there are different dynamics at work in non-presidential election cycles, in fact, I'm not sure the author knows there are non-presidential elections for governors in some states.

    What a piss poor piece.

    Swingnut since 2009, 22, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home)

    by Ryan Dack on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 01:02:51 PM PDT

    •  So by this logic (0+ / 0-)

      California should still be in play since Arnie ran it until 2011?

      Also, ME was a three-way race, and therefore a fluke. No use putting it in with the others in the list.

    •  The Asian vote is (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, wwmiv, MichaelNY

      consistently the least religious, and the most socially liberal demographic in America. Not to mention environmental issues and social safety nets also poll extremely well in this demographic, even if the bulk of Asians (a hodgepodge category), identify as moderates in polling.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 03:06:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  According to one study I've read (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      redrelic17, Skaje, Gygaxian, MichaelNY

      a huge percentage of Native Americans identified as conservative, and most of them voted for Democrats. I don't think ideological self-ID is that important.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 03:33:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Lots of blacks, Hispanics, and Native Americans (4+ / 0-)

        identify as conservative and still vote D.  In large part due to the fact that they are liberal on the issues that matter most to them (i.e. civil rights, immigration, funding for native Americans), even if they might be conservative on some or most issues.  
        In addition, many of these voters think that the GOP doesn't consider them as "real Americans" and tries to prevent them from voting.  This last point is also true among Asian-Americans.  I have an Indian-American coworker who is largely center-right but votes for the Ds.  He really hit the roof when John Sununu suggested that Obama "should learn how to be an American".  His comment about that was if someone as accomplished as Obama wasn't a real American, then he has no hope to be one.  

         

    •  Third Way is junk, a DLC holdover (0+ / 0-)

      They have a vested interest in pushing policy and ideology that people of color reject.  Thus, they have every reason to fear Democrats catering to our new coalition, as they want the safety net cut and more corporatist policymaking by Democrats.  They really are Republican Lite.  There are definitely some voters in our coalition who favor that kind of politics, we have white affluent suburbanites voting for us who are like that.  But what Third Way wants is not these voters' priority, or else they'd be voting Republican all this time.

      In particular, people of Third Way's ilk don't know anything about the politics of communities of color.  That's because Third Way is in fact a bunch of affluent whites suburbanites, completely unfamiliar with people who don't look or think like them.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Oct 15, 2013 at 08:07:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  It's Rasmussen, but Dems lead by 45-38 on (17+ / 0-)

    the generic ballot.

    It was 40-40 last week.

    link.

  •  My write up (5+ / 0-)

    on the special election in Florida, can be seen here.  lots of interesting dynamics in the race

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

  •  For Cubs fans. Bartman 10 years later (0+ / 0-)

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 02:41:18 PM PDT

  •  Mi-Gov MIRS has a poll with Snyder up.... (0+ / 0-)

    50-36.  I doubt it's that good for Snyder considering the source, but Snyder really helped himself with the Detroit bankruptcy.  The rest of the state hates the city and loves to beat up on it, and he's been getting good headlines from the $300 million in federal aid to the city along with a bunch of rich folk offering to clean up and demolish the blight in the city.  Snyder and the GOP get to have their cake and eat it, too... and with the electorate's incredibly short memories nowadays, as long as the crazies in the MI house don't go too nuts, that asshole is probably still favored to win.  It's a real shame that MI can't right itself at all...

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 02:55:52 PM PDT

  •  If Crow is running in FL-13 (5+ / 0-)

    Democrats need to do the logical thing and recruit Tom Servo.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

    by Jeff Singer on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 03:14:21 PM PDT

  •  LA-05: I may end up with a mouth full of turf, (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff, Setsuna Mudo, DCCyclone

    But let me call out a facile, bullshit Roll Call article as I see it. This is seriously their analysis:

    Operatives say Mayo, an African-American mayor of one of the district’s largest cities, would likely be the Democrat who could pull off that scenario.
    I'm not sure what local would have told them that. This is so off it amounts to them not even reading their own reporting, like their fundraising roundup:

    http://atr.rollcall.com/...

       Former Rep. Clyde Holloway, a Republican who served in Congress from 1987 to 1993, raised $245,500 in his comeback bid, including a $112,000 loan to his campaign. Holloway reported $145,000 in cash on hand going into the primary.
        Former state Rep. Weldon Russell, a Democrat, raised $49,000, $43,000 of which is a loan to his campaign. He reported $4,500 in cash on hand.
        State Rep. Robert Johnson, a Democrat, raised $122,000 and reported about $63,000 in cash on hand.
        Monroe Mayor Jamie Mayo, a Democrat, raised $17,000 and reported $15,500 in cash on hand.
    Mayo raised 1/10th what Johnson did yet he's suddenly favored because he's the mayor of Monroe? I have to contest this and say it is supremely unlikely he is the top vote getter among the Democrats.

    There are numerous reasons for this. One, Mayo is only campaigning part time and hasn't taken a leave of absence from his day job. Two, Mayo isn't all that popular in Monroe (he just barely won reelection) and Hunter is going to snag a small portion of his base anyway. And three, Mayo's "base" is the Monroe AA community which while substantial, isn't a voting block that can affect the entire district, and has absolutely atrocious turnout in this kinds of elections.

    Johnson has pretty much all the establishment support and is the only Democrat from the southern part of the district. It's really a race between him and Holloway for second position, I think.

    Vance McAllister, oddly enough it wasn't until recently that I realized I knew him. Pretty much everyone I know up in North Ouachita is backing him, and he grew up in my grandparents neighborhood, before he and his dad became filthy rich and built a sprawling mansion out in the country. When I was visiting home a few weeks ago, I was struck by how his signs where everyone around Schwartz and rural east and north Ouachita. Essentially he's digging deep into Jay Morris's base and trying to out-anti-establishment Morris, which is why I view Holloway as the prime contestant for number two spot (which is Riser's dream scenario, because Holloway is absolutely reviled by Democrats, and by many Republicans).

    I'm still hoping to see Johnson squeak by. I could definitely see something like this happening:

    Riser - 27%
    Mayo - 9%
    Hunter - 5%
    McAllister - 10%
    Morris - 11%
    Russell - 6%
    Holloway - 15%
    Johnson - 17%

    Purely looking at the real candidates.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 03:19:36 PM PDT

    •  Roll Call may be too optimistic for Mayo but it (4+ / 0-)

      wouldn't be unprecedented for a candidate to win a spot in a general because of demographics while running a shitty campaign.  The example that comes to mind is CA-21.

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

      by Jeff Singer on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 03:28:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Johnson probably has better (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Darth Jeff, Setsuna Mudo

        run-off turnout demographics than Mayo. If he has any brains at all, Johnson has also probably been working pretty hard for the black vote in Bogalusa, Alexandria-Pineville and the delta. Again, Mayo is running a part-time, phone-in vanity campaign and he's not even popular or united in his own base. Johnson is running a pretty good campaign, and while he might not make the runoff, he'll do better than Mayo, I'm pretty much willing to bet it.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 03:35:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I might add, McAllister (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff

      has the backing of the Robertsons (of Duck Dynasty fame), and has pretty much consolidated much of the nouveau riche based from Oauchita Christian School (which Willie Robertson's wife's father, a former mayor of Monroe, founded). He's also a member of North Monroe Baptist Church, which is a pretty big church with a wide network for politics and a lot of influence. He's got a lot of CenturyLink people behind too (including some of the founders), which is also a big deal. Pretty much he's killed Morris's chance for a run off, since he's literally shredded Morris's winning coalition; my grandparents are in his state house district and were going to vote for him until they learned McAllister was running. Just indicative of how the race has shaken out.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 03:32:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  This is the kind of district (0+ / 0-)

      where progressive and moderate forces would be well served in running a anti-teabagger center-right independent.  It is quite unlikely that any Democrat, even a conservative one, could win here IMO.  But perhaps an independent can.

  •  wow, Michelle Nunn is owning the Rs. (18+ / 0-)

    These guys are pitiful.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 04:00:53 PM PDT

  •  AK-Gov: Bill Walker chooses his running mate (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, gabjoh, HoosierD42

    It's former Alaska Department of Fish and Game official Craig Fleener, a military veteran and Gwitch'in leader. Story here.

    Some background shading on this pick: Fleener obviously checks a number of boxes for Walker, a former Republican mounting a longshot indie challenge to Gov. Sean Parnell (who defeated him in the 2010 primary) over differences with the Parnell administration on oil and gas issues. But more provincially, Fleener has been the point person in Fish and Game working with state Sen. Bert Stedman, arguably the most moderate Republican in the Alaska State Legislature, on one of Stedman's pet issues -- you may remember a story from Alaska that went national about some officials wanting to place a "bounty" on sea otters? That was Stedman in the legislature with Fleener providing cover from the administration.

    Stedman's support will be an important bellwether for determining whether Walker has any juice in this race. He and Parnell are not close, and like Walker, he's been vocally critical of Parnell's massive oil tax cut (which is on the ballot next November after voters petitioned it to referendum, along with marijuana legalization, which will also be a fun initiative to watch). But Stedman is also a savvy pol who knows the key to success in Alaska politics is bringing home the bacon for constituents, and since Parnell has a line-item veto (and fired a warning shot at Stedman by nixing a budget item for a local priority in the senator's hometown of Sitka this year), he may be inclined to keep his head down unless he thinks there would be some point in wading into this fight.

    I don't think Fleener delivers Stedman for Walker by any stretch of the imagination, but Walker has to know that unless he can publicly peel off moderate Republican officials around the state, he's going to struggle to gain any sort of traction in the general election -- and Stedman is the low-hanging fruit. By picking Fleener, Walker is playing to Stedman a little bit. We'll see if Stedman bites.

    (Note #1: Walker and Fleener will not be a formal ticket, but will be "running together" despite occupying their own lines on the ballot.)

    (Note #2: The possibility of a Walker/Wielechowski ticket, as alluded to in the article, was never a realistic one -- especially with Wielechowski's friend Hollis French exploring the race as a Democrat.)

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 04:08:06 PM PDT

  •  A random thought about Utah Dems (0+ / 0-)

    So Park City over here is a very liberal area. And there's a certain population of rich liberal types who own homes/properties there, usually as a second or third home. While they probably don't feel kinship with Utahns at all, I wonder if it's possible to convince them that they could have some impact in local races, and that if they contribute even just a few funds, they could affect some measure of change.

    Also possibly convincing them that the Utah GOP's misguided attempts to seize public lands from the Feds (and the obvious GOP desire to extract oil and natural gas from those areas) will effect their metaphorical and literal backyards in the state.

    Basically I just want to fix the funding problems the Utah Dems have; not much of the millions of dollars Matheson got seem to have trickled down to the rest of the Utah Democratic candidates. Even Ben McAdams, our next strongest candidate, had to really push to get over a million or so.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 04:18:03 PM PDT

    •  Here's the problem (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, ehstronghold

      The rich liberal types don't think that Utah Ds can win.  And the ones that can win are far too conservative for these rich liberals' liking.  So the rich liberals donate money to national candidates and candidates in other states that they think can win and who are far closer to their ideology.

      And quite frankly I can't blame them.  When Jim Matheson votes with the Rs to shutdown the government, what value is there in donating to him?  If you can't even oppose the teabaggers on that, something that is quite unpopular even in Utah, what good is he?

      •  Good point, I didn't want to bring that up (3+ / 0-)

        Because in the past I've stirred arguments of, well, Burkean proportions, but that is quite a good point. Matheson doesn't seem to appeal to any donors besides the odd moderate Republican donor (and voter, for that matter) and the DCCC or similar organizations, who work with sheer numbers. I don't know what good Matheson is, though I do hope that if he does a gubernatorial run, he'll be able to articulate real moderate views and attract some national funding.

        Hopefully though, Luz Robles over in UT-02 (who I firmly believe has a small, but decent chance of winning) and similar candidates will draw their attention; we can win in a few areas in Utah; not much, but a few.

        And Salt Lake City has certainly turned into a liberal haven, so why not try and replicate that effect with a few of the other large cities in Utah?

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 05:19:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Utah (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Gygaxian

          Democrats should work on building up the party in Salt Lake City so it become a reliable beachhead for Democrats in the state.

          The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

          by ehstronghold on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 06:01:16 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Oh, it is already very strong (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            CF of Aus

            Except for single exception this year (and that's a complicated story) you can't win as a Republican in Salt Lake City. It's tremendously Democratic, and very LGBT-friendly (which provides both a portion of Democratic power and provides the anti-LDS fervor that I'll discuss in response to TeaBaggersAreRacists' post). In fact, there was 88% support in SLC for a statement saying that corporations are not people and money is not speech.

            You may be thinking of Salt Lake County, which has a large population of Democrats (and contains the entirety of Utah Dem legislators), but which has a lot of Republicans as well. I do agree that we need to gain a few more seats there and solidify Dem influence there before moving on to the other counties.

            Though Weber County is another area of growth, especially in the Ogden area. It's got a large Latino population, and at least one of the GOP incumbent legislators is very weak as a candidate.

            Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

            by Gygaxian on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 06:27:20 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  The other problem (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Gygaxian, sacman701, CF of Aus

          and I'm sure you this know well is religion.  Utah is a heavily Mormon state.  The liberals, especially the wealthy funders, are not, and many are quite anti-Mormon.  In 2008, 80% of the Mormons voted for McCain, while 80% of the non-Mormons in the state voted for Obama.

          Any successful D candidate in Utah outside of SLC and some of the skiing enclaves will have to be Mormon.  I would go further and say that the D party, to be viable statewide, will have tell the hardcore anti-Mormon wing of the party to take a hike (the same way that the GOP should tell the teabaggers to take a hike).  But like it or not, that wing of the party is a strong minority if not a majority.  

          There are probably a lot of relatively moderate Mormons who would be willing to consider a Democrat.  But they won't if the state Ds are viewed as a party full of people who resent their faith.

          •  Indeed, that is a problem. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            CF of Aus, sacman701

            There aren't that many mouth-frothingly anti-Mormon types in the Utah Dems, they're just loud, have a degree of power within the party (delegates and such), and are more of a public face to Mormons than the average Utah Dem.

            More of the anti-Mormon types are just mildly hostile (and usually with good reason, since they tend to be LGBT), and simply don't feel like having anything to do with Mormons. They also dislike the amount of power the LDS Church has within Utah. But they're more of the "you leave us also, we leave you alone" sort of people. Either kind of Dem do unfortunately tend to espouse some anti-Mormon attitudes.

            What's annoying is that despite there being many Mormon Democratic candidates in Utah (Jim Matheson, County Mayor Ben McAdams, and half the legislative Dems), the Democrats are seen as the non-or-anti-Mormon party, because of the behavior of those few rabid anti-Mormons, and the more acerbic of the "leave me alone" types.

            I've mentioned before that I'm a member of the Salt Lake/Utah Democratic Progressive Caucus (and it's associated facebook group), and there's unfortunately a rabid minority within that group who positively hate Mormons and seemingly everything about Utah, and they undoubtedly aren't the only ones, judging by comments on the Salt Lake Tribune. I've been trying to persuade them to not be as angry towards Mormons, and to at least consider trying to unite with moderate Mormons over things they've agreed on in the past (like opposing school vouchers and supporting statewide anti-discrimination policies), but it's slow going and the rabid anti-Mormons aren't changing their ways. The fact that the LDS Dems Caucus (formed just 2 years ago) hasn't done much visibly and are viewed as a way to get conservative-leaning Mormons to "infiltrate" more of the party is not helping matters

            Good synopsis by the way. I wouldn't say that the hardcore anti-Mormons are a majority, but there's definitely an antipathy towards Mormons in a plurality of Utah Dems. There's also a bit of an attitude that "brownnosing the Mormons and putting forward moderate Mormon candidates haven't helped", but that's mostly among the angriest anti-Mormons.

            I wish there could be a high-profile "debate" or news conference with the progressives and the LDS Dems talking about how they shouldn't be enemies, and what they can find in common, but there doesn't seem to be much chance in that.

            Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

            by Gygaxian on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 06:59:06 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  LA-Sen: Landrieu outraises Cassidy close to 2-1 (29+ / 0-)

    http://www.politico.com/...

    Landrieu raises $1.35 mill to Cassidy's $700K, leads in CoH $5.8 million to $3.4 million.  

    It remains to be seen how much of Cassidy's haul he gets to keep and how much goes to Ami Bera.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

    by Jeff Singer on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 04:38:57 PM PDT

  •  MI-Gov (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, abgin, JBraden, MichaelNY

    I can't for the life of me understand why Michigan has such sh%tty pollsters.  Even Virg Bernero in a wave year got about 40% of the vote, and that was with a name recognition number he was never able to get as high as required to really run a competitive race.  

    The bad thing about all these sh%tty polls is if you don't answer them, they start to become a self-fulfilling prophecy, so Dems need to find a respectable national pollster to come back in here.  

    Beyond that, Mark Schauer needs to start finding free media on cable news until the race really heats up, and he's able to pay to get on television.  And, his first commercial should be him being pepper sprayed by the Michigan State Police during the RTW protests.  I'm not sure why this hasn't gotten more play from the media and his campaign.  

    It's cute visiting all of these county Democratic dinners and such, but it's not going to cut it against a multi-millionaire self-funder and a guy who by passing RTW will attrack so much outside money he may not even need to dip into his own pockets.

  •  VA-GOV: Here is a headline Charlie Crist probably (14+ / 0-)

    couldnt have imagined a few years ago.

    Bill Clinton, Charlie Crist raise cash for Terry McAuliffe.

    Clinton stepping up fundraising for McAuliffe, although is that really needed at this point?

    •  For McAuliffe? No (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, LordMike, bjssp, Jorge Harris

      For the Clintons? Yes. If they hitch their wagon to their old friend as he romps to a big, nationally significant win in a key 2008/12/16(?) swing state, chances are some lazy-ass pundits and media sensationalists will devote a few column inches or broadcast minutes to how "McAuliffe was boosted to victory with the help of the Clintons -- does this signal the return of the Clinton Coalition, just in time for a possible presidential bid by Hillary Clinton in 2016?"

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 06:16:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  oh sure (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        But couldnt Clintons do that with campaign rallies as opposed to what appear to be closed door fundraising events. That would still get them the good press.

        Maybe there will be a some rallies at the end in the final race.  

        •  No, no (8+ / 0-)

          Part of the "mystique" of the Clintons is that they can make it known that they're holding some sort of closed-door event for the Democratic elite, and suddenly the cash and endorsements start flooding in. I like to think President Clinton just ushers everyone into the ballroom, closes the doors, and then takes a seat and says, "Everybody hang tight for just a couple hours. Drinks are on me. If anybody asks, tell 'em I was incredible, and give generously."

          Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 08:56:51 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  So when does voting close for that (0+ / 0-)

    special election in Florida tonight? Will we get the results tonight, or will there be another mess with early voting and etc...?

    "My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world." -Jack Layton (1950-2011)

    by Coco Usagi on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 06:37:01 PM PDT

  •  IL-Gov (0+ / 0-)

    Here's yet another article alleging that Rahm Emanuel may be privately backing Republican IL-Gov candidate Bruce Rauner, this one comes from Carol Felsenthal of Chicago Magazine:

    Now that Bill Daley has quit the governor’s race, my guess is that Rahm won’t be voting for Pat Quinn, not even while holding his nose. I bet Rahm pulls the lever for his buddy, Republican Bruce Rauner, former CEO of the private equity firm GTCR.

    It’s Rauner, after all, who advised Rahm in the late ’90s to make his fortune as an investment banker and who hired him to represent GTCR in the purchase of a home-security company from SBC Communications. Proceeds from that deal, among others, put the Clinton operative, who had no prior business experience or education, on the fast track to earning $18 million in under 3 years. Fortune in place, Rahm sprinted down the road to elective office.

    Rauner’s genuine chumminess with Rahm will not help the venture capitalist in the Republican primary, and neither will Rauner’s contributions to Rahm’s campaigns. Republican rivals Bill Brady and Kirk Dillard are already attacking Rauner for his cozy ties to Rahm. And those ties are not only cozy, they're real—families-vacation-together real.

    My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

    by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Oct 15, 2013 at 02:44:45 AM PDT

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