At this point, MoveOn has actually paid for polls in every Republican seat where Barack Obama took at least 45 percent of the vote in 2012, save three: MN-02, MN-03, and NE-02, the latter two of which the DCCC has also polled recently. (They've also tested two redder districts, KY-06 and OH-06.) In most of these newly-polled districts, though, there hasn't even been a hint of a possible serious Democratic challenge, but now, across these 61 polls, Republican incumbents have an average minus 5 approval rating, and they trail their generic Democratic opponents 44-45.
This portends one of two possible scenarios: either Republicans are in for a serious drubbing in 2014, or we'll be treated to a series of articles about how generic polling a year out isn't predictive of very much. Given the GOP's brutal October thanks to the federal government shutdown they forced, it's certainly possible that Democrats will do very well in the midterms. But as Mark Blumenthal recently cautioned, some early PPP polls last cycle that were similar to MoveOn's wound up looking overly rosy for Team Blue.
I think the best sanity check here would be if someone commissioned PPP to poll a couple dozen potentially vulnerable Democratic-held seats. If, say, people like Ann Kirkpatrick in AZ-01 or Sean Maloney in NY-18 are also shown to be losing by similar margins, then maybe generic polls like this are simply an opportunity for voters to express their dissatisfaction with incumbents. But if Dems are in better shape than their GOP counterparts, then perhaps the party is in store for real gains next year. So, who's gonna step up?
|Initial Ballot||Informed Ballot|