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Elephant in a dunce cap sitting in the corner
MoveOn has released another 25 polls from PPP of Republican-held House districts, bringing their total to 61 seats surveyed in the past few weeks. The methodology is same they used with prior batches (available here and here), so you can read our prior posts if you'd like a refresher. For now, you can find a full chart summarizing all the results below the fold. ("O%" refers to Barack Obama's share of the vote in each congressional district in 2012. The "Δ" or "delta" refers to the change in net performance from the initial ballot question to the informed ballot question.)

At this point, MoveOn has actually paid for polls in every Republican seat where Barack Obama took at least 45 percent of the vote in 2012, save three: MN-02, MN-03, and NE-02, the latter two of which the DCCC has also polled recently. (They've also tested two redder districts, KY-06 and OH-06.) In most of these newly-polled districts, though, there hasn't even been a hint of a possible serious Democratic challenge, but now, across these 61 polls, Republican incumbents have an average minus 5 approval rating, and they trail their generic Democratic opponents 44-45.

This portends one of two possible scenarios: either Republicans are in for a serious drubbing in 2014, or we'll be treated to a series of articles about how generic polling a year out isn't predictive of very much. Given the GOP's brutal October thanks to the federal government shutdown they forced, it's certainly possible that Democrats will do very well in the midterms. But as Mark Blumenthal recently cautioned, some early PPP polls last cycle that were similar to MoveOn's wound up looking overly rosy for Team Blue.

I think the best sanity check here would be if someone commissioned PPP to poll a couple dozen potentially vulnerable Democratic-held seats. If, say, people like Ann Kirkpatrick in AZ-01 or Sean Maloney in NY-18 are also shown to be losing by similar margins, then maybe generic polls like this are simply an opportunity for voters to express their dissatisfaction with incumbents. But if Dems are in better shape than their GOP counterparts, then perhaps the party is in store for real gains next year. So, who's gonna step up?

CA-39 47.1 Ed Royce 36-36 0 43 45 -2 44 48 -4 -2
CA-49 45.7 Darrel Issa 43-49 -6 47 48 -1 47 49 -2 -1
CO-03 45.8 Scott Tipton 28-51 -23 42 48 -6 42 50 -8 -2
FL-07 47.1 John Mica 33-50 -17 43 46 -3 41 49 -8 -5
FL-15 45.6 Dennis Ross 23-38 -15 38 45 -7 42 50 -8 -1
FL-25 48.7 Mario Diaz-Balart 36-46 -10 43 46 -3 43 48 -5 -2
IL-06 45.1 Peter Roskam 35-48 -13 45 48 -3 43 49 -6 -3
IL-16 45.2 Adam Kinzinger 39-39 0 49 37 12 46 45 1 -11
MI-03 45.8 Justin Amash 37-49 -12 43 47 -4 43 49 -6 -2
MI-04 45.5 Dave Camp 39-42 -3 45 42 3 45 45 0 -3
NJ-05 47.9 Scott Garrett 39-46 -7 44 49 -5 45 50 -5 0
NJ-07 46.3 Leonard Lance 32-42 -10 43 43 0 40 48 -8 -8
NJ-11 46.6 Rodney Frelinghuysen 35-41 -6 42 47 -5 42 50 -8 -3
NY-22 48.8 Richard Hanna 41-37 4 45 39 6 40 48 -8 -14
OH-01 46.3 Steve Chabot 33-46 -13 45 43 2 47 46 1 -1
OH-10 48.2 Mike Turner 44-43 1 48 44 4 44 49 -5 -9
OH-15 46.3 Steve Stivers 31-45 -14 40 47 -7 40 50 -10 -3
OH-16 45.2 Jim Renacci 33-48 -15 41 48 -7 42 50 -8 -1
PA-15 47.9 Charlie Dent 40-38 2 48 35 13 45 40 5 -8
PA-16 46.3 Joe Pitts 34-50 -16 40 44 -4 42 48 -6 -2
VA-01 45.6 Rob Wittman 39-36 3 48 41 7 47 43 4 -3
VA-04 48.8 Randy Forbes 44-38 6 47 43 4 45 47 -2 -6
VA-05 45.9 Robert Hurt 34-42 -8 42 47 -5 40 50 -10 -5
WI-06 45.8 Tom Petri 37-41 -4 45 46 -1 44 49 -5 -4
WI-08 47.6 Reid Ribble 42-46 -4 47 44 3 45 47 -2 -5

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 11:48 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  At least Doomish? nt (7+ / 0-)

    I want 1 less Tiny Coffin, Why Don't You? Support The President's Gun Violence Plan.

    by JML9999 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 11:53:24 AM PDT

  •  Too Early (11+ / 0-)

    It's too early to call it done.  These polls may be hopeful, but I hope the Dem party has a year long strategy for maintaining the current anti-GOP sentiment and converting it to support for its candidates.

    •  yeah, this is partly a "dead-Cruz-strategy bounce" (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      a2nite, MichaelNY

      It's most titillating for our side to see results like this, but we'll know more over the coming winter re: how sticky the "throw the GOP out" sentiment is.  I think some of it is real/durable, but some is likely a reflection of immediate (and possibly temporary) opinions/feelings post-shutdown.  

    •  It is NOT to early to: (5+ / 0-)

      Make the following four steps....

      1- Get Obamacare website and registration working smoothly and ASAP.  It may be the single most powerful tool to improve Democratic image available, but people have to learn what it does and how it can make their lives better AND save them money.

      2- Launch major nationwide effort to register voters.  Screw Voter ID strangulation attempts.  Get people signed up NOW whatever the wrenches the GOP wants to throw into the gears.
      3- Mobilize GOTV operations NOW......It is a year to the mid-terms.  Turnout is ALWAYS lighter and particularly for Dems.  If Obama wants to finish his term in office on a plus note, it is time for him and the Democratic party to fire up the system they used to turn out voters for the 2010 Presidential campaign....block by block and door by door and highly computerized.

      4-Then and ONLY then....make this next election a stark choice between a Democratic Party that wants to get things done and a GOP that does nothing but obstruct and has not a single plan to improve the lives of working men and women in America.

      (Great tweet today notes that there are thousands of bridges and roads nationwide in severe need of repair and no instances of voter fraud.  Guess which problem the GOP wants to fix first?)

      Free markets would be a great idea, if markets were actually free.

      by dweb8231 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 01:35:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, but start the October reminders now (0+ / 0-)

        Don't let people forget that incompetence. And keep building on all that and the obstructionism and their neo-Confederacy attempts to subvert this nation and our election system. They've finally flown their true colors for those average citizens who don't pay much close attention to that sort of thing much and we need to keep a spotlight on it.

        We need a running start so that when we get to your point #4 that message is hurtling through the zeitgeist like a bullet train.

  •  Ha! (5+ / 0-)

    I knew Scotty Tipton was in trouble.  We need to recruit Salazar to run against him.

    “Socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires.” - John Steinbeck

    by RichM on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:00:38 PM PDT

  •  At the very least it should stop the insanity (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rubyr, AnnetteK, MRA NY, Puddytat, patbahn

    Fingers crossed. Knock on wood.

    I know. I know. Expecting rational thinking from the teahadists is my own insanity.

    But these polls would stop any rational politician from doing the shutdown thing again. Or even threatening it.

    Hopefully, it strengthens the hand of the few remaining adults in the GOP, especially those hoping to avoid getting tarred with the teahadist brush in their own reelection campaigns.

    Peace on Earth was all it said.

    by BobBlueMass on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:02:25 PM PDT

  •  Blumenthal (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AnnetteK, WisVoter, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    Overly optimistic yes but Democrats still ended up winning half the seats they polled at a similar stage...

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:12:44 PM PDT

    •  Yeah, Taniel pointed out on Twitter... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      ...that we won 7 of those 12 GOP-held seats that PPP a year out said we were on top.

      I'll take that percentage on this batch any day of any week, as it means we'd take the House.

      But of course last cycle's percentage doesn't mean anything this time.  Still too early and too much likely to happen to affect voter opinion.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 07:29:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Wish they'd poll some D Held seats (13+ / 0-)

    Such as CA-07, CA-36, CA-52, NC-07, FL-26, AZ-01, AZ-02, UT-04, etc.  I'd just like to know if the this is an anti-republican issue or an overall anti-incumbent problem.

    Intelligence agencies keep things secret because they often violate the rule of law or of good behavior. -Julian Assange-

    by ChadmanFL on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:14:36 PM PDT

  •  Reason for optimism but not predictive (12+ / 0-)

    There are two main things that Dems will need to do, even with this positive polling, to take the House: turn out enthusiastic voters in large numbers, and execute well.

    First thing is not to demoralize the base. Somebody needs to muzzle the Wall Street Dems like Dick Durbin who seem so eager to cut Social Security.  Just shut up, Dick, and don't even consider such a thing.  The long term finances can be made to work forever just by raising the cap a bit.

    Second thing is to devote huge resources to turnout, and helping people overcome voting restrictions by getting their ducks in a row many months in advance.

    We need to realize that polls for a generic Democrat are going to look better than polls for a specific Democrat. Real people have flaws and baggage that the other side will try to support.  In purple and red districts, if the Dems put up an attractive candidate, the GOP side might try to run by attacking Pelosi and Reid.

    I suggest that Nancy Pelosi should pledge right now that, should she be elected Speaker, she would never accept a rule that gives her the sole right to bring a bill to the floor. If a coalition of conservative Democrats and Republicans want to pass a bill and they have a majority, they should get to do that.  It's democracy.  Such a stand could help Dems in swing districts compete: they could say that they are Democrats but their first priority is to represent the district and they won't blindly follow the leadership the way the Republicans do.

    (That said I don't think that Dems should choose committee chairs solely on the basis of seniority ... someone who frequently votes against Democrats should be back bencher, as they say in the UK).

  •  It's Got to Be Capitalized on With a Dem Challengr (5+ / 0-)

    and money & activism that will aggressively leverage the shutdown and tie it to Republican governance generally.

    It's not doom for Republicans because they have too many structural advantages plus they timed the shutdown perfectly to minimize blowback in case it failed.

    What it does suggest is opportunity for Democrats should they use it wisely and aggressively. We might be able to turn it into Republican doom, but it's not doom in and of itself, not yet.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:24:33 PM PDT

    •  The national and state Democratic Parties (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      falconer520, Stude Dude, ChadmanFL

      must start taking advantage of this immediately.  Part of the problem we have with them is that they only put their money on sure things rather than pushing in less certain districts.

      Howard Dean got it right.  He needs to come back to lead the charge on a 50 state, 300 district policy.

      There already is class warfare in America. Unfortunately, the rich are winning.

      by Puddytat on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:44:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  No no and NO! (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stude Dude, a2nite

        We don't have the resources to challenge every single district.  If you slice the pie that thin, you're going to lose lots of winnable races.

        And no, the problem isn't that the party only puts its money on sure things, at least not here in Ohio. We actually don't have any sure things, other than the four grossly gerrymandered Democratic districts who don't need any money. But we do have a swing district. The DCCC so far has chosen to ignore it in favor of a probably unwinnable very red district where they have recruited an awful Blue Dog challenger who is toxic to Democratic activists in Ohio. I was seething for days after receiving an email plea for contributions for her from Steve Israel. I actually called the DCCC and told them they were endangering our whole state ticket by trying to raise money for this candidate in extremely progressive districts outside her own. Many of us would rank donating to her only a notch above donating to Ted Cruz.

        Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

        by anastasia p on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 02:34:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I didn't say every single district (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stude Dude, fearlessfred14

          I said we should take on about 300 of them.  If they keep on betting on "sure things" we won't be winning as many districts as possible.

          We must take advantage of the GOP destroying itself.  If not now, when?

          There already is class warfare in America. Unfortunately, the rich are winning.

          by Puddytat on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 02:46:31 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  I think what the polls indicate is that (8+ / 0-)

    Democrats will probably not have a lot of at risk seats and that the GOP will be playing defense.  As of right now, the 2014 election has been nationalized as a referendum on the tea party and the GOP's ability to govern in a responsible and competent manner.

    Between now and then, things could intervene to change that frame.  Bush, you may recall, changed the frame of the 2002 elections, which had been shaping up very positively for Democrats, by bringing us the fall roll out of the Iraq war.

    Unless the economy markedly improves over the next 12 months (a possibility, ironically due to all the money Obamacare could put into the pockets of Americans), or unless the GOP does some additional surrendering on the budget (giving the economy a further boost) I don't see many things changing this frame. The gun issue is a possibility given the rash of shootings that more people are now keeping track of, but I doubt Democrats would push that issue at the national level when the electoral climate is changing in their favor.

    After the 1995 shutdown, Republicans receded from view, hid behind a booming economy, conceded to Clinton and held on to the hold on Congress with very few seats changing hands.  With guys like Ted Cruz and the Koch brothers around, I don't see that sort of thing happening.

    Global Shakedown - Alternative rock with something to say. Check out their latest release, "A Time to Recognize": Available on iTunes, Amazon, Google Play, Spotify and other major online music sites. Visit http://www.globalshakedown.com.

    by khyber900 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:30:19 PM PDT

  •  As the old expression goes: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CrazyHorse, geoneb

    "Money talks and bullshit walks."  If we get credible and well-financed candidates in these districts, who knows.  I like the idea of testing some "swingy" Dem held House seats to see about general revulsion or specifically revulsion with the Rethugicans.   Hope it is the latter, but we'll see.

    Reporting from Tea Bagger occupied America

    by DrJohnB on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:38:37 PM PDT

  •  Well, to hear the Louisiana Delegation talk (4+ / 0-)

    (100% R's), they won and just came home to get more ammo and reload for the next battle in the war against Obamacare.

    "I'm totally pro-choice in the matter of abortion. But of course I'm also so radically pro-life that I think every person from birth onward must have full and affordable access to healthcare." - Gail Collins

    by gritsngumbo on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:43:41 PM PDT

  •  Marianne Williamson is running in CA 33rd District (0+ / 0-)

    Her website looks wonderful.  Unfortunately, she's running against Henry Waxman as an independent.    We could sure use someone with her worldview in Congress.

  •  I Still Believe in Nate Silver... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    patbahn, Noodles

    And last I heard, he is not particularly bullish about our prospects yet.  And is has put into context what he thinks the long term effects of the shutdown will be.

    While we should definitely spend the next 12 months talking about the shutdown. And pointing out who caused the shutdown. And why the shutdown was bad. And why having a "split government" is no longer an efficient way to reign in partisan excess, but was in fact being used to blackmail...  it is not something that should used as anything except a rallying point to kick us all in the butt and into high gear.

    We have no real momentum here... what we have is something to motivate our base to keep on working.

    •  There's going to be more hostage taking in 2014 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG, patbahn, MichaelNY

      Count on it.  As long as they run the House it's just CR after CR with constant threats of default and government closure.  I'd be shocked if they don't pull more of these stunts in 2014.  Most of the GOP caucus is more concerned with acting sufficiently crazy to avoid getting primaried than they are winning general elections.

      Intelligence agencies keep things secret because they often violate the rule of law or of good behavior. -Julian Assange-

      by ChadmanFL on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:56:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think so too (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ChadmanFL, Stude Dude, MichaelNY

        Particularly since they got nothing out of this one. There MO is always to double-down not to backtrack.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 01:00:11 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  If continuing CR's that's good news for Democrats. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ChadmanFL, patbahn, MichaelNY

        It would be like constsantly tearing off a scab. Speaker Pelosi will be pleased come Nov., 2014.

      •  If the GOP forces another showdown after 01-July, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ChadmanFL

        then I will be ready to agree with you. Particularly if all the wrinkles in Obamacare have been ironed out.

        For once, though, I would like to see Democrats turn out in force for a midterm. We need them to be either enthused or outraged in that 2 month window before the election.

      •  One more CR, probably. More than that, unlikely. (0+ / 0-)

        The neocons (note to merde stream media, they are not moderates in DC; you have irresponsively let them bury the neoconservative label) will yank the choke collar tightly on their Frankenbagger spawn. The Corporate Masters shall demand it.

        That doesn't mean that many grassroots Republicans will go along with it, but I would expect the GOP leadership to exert more control. There will be much more funding in 2014 for the neocons, although the Koch bros. and some other libertarian types may still fund the Teapartiers. But there may be some lip service and even a bit of token compromising in DC to avoid total collapse. How that plays in the primaries will be anyone's guess. Will the top down bullet points from Fox and Fiends get through with all the advertising or has 30 years of brainwashing and fear mongering finally gotten completely out of neo-fascist control?

    •  That article came well before (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      polling that was even tougher on Republicans. It came before that whopper of an NBC/WSJ poll, the very tough ABC poll, and these CNN numbers.

    •  it's intensity and preference. (0+ / 0-)

      in some respects a party civil war is unprecedented.

      if we see primary challenges across the board,
      will they fall apart in the generals?

      I'm not sure, but i'd want to run candidates not only
      federally but at the state level, build a bench, and
      work hard.

      usually primary battles bleed intensity.

    •  Nate isn't worth believing in on this stuff (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, R30A

      He contributes some useful things to election analysis, but not as much as you and many others think.

      The only reason not to be bullish is, indeed, that it's so early, and Boehner could find a way to corral his members into behaving better at least in an election year.

      But Boehner has mostly failed at controlling them, and doing so next year will be tough.  It's already a foregone conclusion that the year-long approps bill that ends up becoming law won't pass the House until the night of January 15th at the earliest, and later if there's a shutdown, and it will end up with less than half the GOP conference voting for it and pass mostly with Democrats.  How much anxiety with the GOP cause up to them?  Will they shut down the government again?  Those are open questions.  Mitch McConnell saying there won't be another shutdown is worthless, he can't whip GOP House members.  Will the year-long approps include another debt ceiling hike, which I'm sure Dems will demand?  If not, will they play brinkmanship again in the summer when the extraordinary measures run out and we're approaching D-day again?

      Those are the events to watch that will decide if we actually can flip the House.  Nate's forecasts don't tell us anything.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 07:37:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  You bring up Sean Patrick Maloney (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL, Christopher Walker

    as a test case for dissatisfaction with incumbants.  I know many liberals in the District. who are VERY dissatisfied with Mr. Maloney over one of his votes with the GOP to re-open the govt. (when virtually all other Dems voted No) and on his vote for the Farm bill which gutted SNAP.  Many are taking the stance that they will hold their nose and vote for him, and there are calls for a primary challenge.  But, Maloney has a huge warchest.  

    With the Decision Points Theater, the George W. Bush Presidential Library becomes the very first Presidential Library to feature a Fiction Section.

    by Its the Supreme Court Stupid on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:46:55 PM PDT

  •  PPP Polling (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bgix

    Is too heavily weighted for the Dems.  View this polling as what it is: a tool to raise money and recruit GOOD candidates.

    We can't win in these districts fronting Some Guy.  We need to recruit good people and fill their pockets with money.  

    The problem is - we've got a lot of Gerrymandering to overcome.  The DNCC needs to not only be Daddy Fat Sacks come 2014, but have some good candidates on the ballot as well.  

    No one can terrorize a whole nation, unless we are all his accomplices. - Edward R. Murrow

    by CrazyHorse on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:48:12 PM PDT

    •  You would have to actually (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      stevenaxelrod, itskevin, MichaelNY

      get the cross-tabs and look at each indiidual poll to make that statement. On the whole PPP has been extremely accurate and had very little partisan lean in either of the last two cycles, particularly nailing close races.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 01:59:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Two of the three Ohio districts (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stude Dude

      in this poll probably aren't takable at all and not worth wasting resources in. No one's going to take on Stivers in a district specially drawn for him. And he voted against default. Turner's number don't look that bad. It looks like a tad of grumpiness but not much more. And he always wins in a landslide. Last year we had an extremely strong candidate who campaigned relentless, raised money, did everything right — and she lost, again in a landslide.

      I might be willing to take an option out on defeating Renacci, depending on who we can recruit to run against him. Unfortunately this is another case where we had the strongest candidate imaginably last year, and she lost, though not by much. She's moved on.

      Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

      by anastasia p on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 02:27:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  IT'S WAY TOO SOON. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, bgix

    Obamacare is the 800-pound gorilla of the 2016 election.

    If Obamacare proves popular--and we won't know till around June of next year--the GOP is in trouble.

    If Obamacare proves unpopular, then the Dems are in trouble.

    If the verdict on Obamcare come next summer-fall is mixed, then we can start worrying about other factors.

    "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

    by HeyMikey on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:57:41 PM PDT

    •  I don't really see Obamacare (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HeyMikey, a2nite, R30A, askew, MichaelNY

      as becoming MORE unpopular, because it's just not going to hurt anyone. It may not HELP anyone as much as we hoped, but because of the massive wave of lies out there, people aren't expecting it to. So anything good at all that happens will be a plus. I was shocked to talk to a relatively knowledgable uninsured friend of mine who makes a very small income as a freelance artist who hadn't even looked at it because she didn't think it would help her family in any way she could afford. She's wrong.

      Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

      by anastasia p on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 02:29:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You're too rational. (0+ / 0-)

        Your problem is that you are intelligent and reasonably well-informed.

        If enough of the country turns out to be at least non-crazy, Obamacare should be at least mildly popular. But that's a big if.

        What a crazy world.

        "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

        by HeyMikey on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 02:58:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  The problem is that is a GOP narrative (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Of the polls which ask about Obamacare, the CBS and CNN polls are the only ones that question the law based on the nature of disfavor.  While both show Obamacare "losing" by double digit margins, CNN's poll has consistently shown that at least 12-15% of naysayers think the bill isn't liberal enough, which alone accounts for the margin between approvals.  A minority actually think that the bill is too liberal.  CBS asks whether people think that the bill is too liberal, about right, or not liberal enough.  "About right", and "not liberal enough" together consistently account for 50%+ of those polled.

        I agree that Obamacare is basically baked into the pie at this point, but it would be premature to say that it can't help, since it has really nowhere to go but up.  

  •  this may not mean anything, yet (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, scott5js, geoneb, MichaelNY, R30A

    I'd much rather be a Dem right now than a Repub. I wouldn't be very happy as a Repub living with these numbers, no matter what the spin. I'll take it, however optimistically. WE can build on this for next year. One thing we can guarantee is that Cruz and the teabaggers will not give up which means in 2014, their antics will continue right through to the election. I'm feeling good about our chances.  

  •  Repeat Offenders R US (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I wouldn't put much stock in a generic poll a year out of an election, but the one thing that we can count on is that the GOPs will continue doing this.  Once it has happened in a high visibility way, it sensitizes the general public to the subject.  If it keeps happening, every time the budget is addressed or debt limit needs to be increased they hold the country hostage for more pain, the public will become more incensed.  So, yeah, don't mean much now, but it's sure to keep happening as 2014 election day draws nigh.

  •  Different dynamic in deep red districts? (3+ / 0-)

    New member here...

    I'm wondering about the dynamic in deep red districts.  Caving on the shutdown has not been viewed favorably in the strong Republican districts in AZ.  My representative, who earned 61% of the votes in 2012, voted no to raising the debt ceiling and opening the government.  I'm sure his vote would be viewed as a plus by most of his constituents given an informed ballot.

    On the flip side, go to the comments on John McCain's FB page if you want to see absolutely seething conservative reactions to "selling out."

    Given how deeply red this district is right now, I may register as a Republican and vote in the primary for the least insane option.  Unfortunately, voting Dem in the general is an exercise in futility.

  •  never underestimate republican denial (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    a2nite

    they have a full year to deflect blame, rewrite history, rationalize, and lie.

    and in most parts of the country there will be no alternatives while driving or working.

    This is a list of 76 universities for Rush Limbaugh that endorse global warming denial, racism, sexism, and GOP lies by broadcasting sports on over 170 Limbaugh radio stations.

    by certainot on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 01:31:39 PM PDT

  •  And I voted today (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PassionateJus, Gygaxian, trowaman

    Yes, I voted today in the Houston city election. Today is the first day to vote early.
    Voters in Virginia have an opportunity to give a resounding NO to Cuccinelli, if they don't let Republicans steal the election through voter suppression. Indirectly this is also an opportunity to say NO to the recent Republican shutdown. Voters in New Jersey also have an opportunity to vote some Republicans out of state government.
    When is your next opportunity to vote? It is a very good idea to know. In next year's Democratic primary, if not sooner. Do the Koch brothers know when their next election is? You can be sure they do.
    Elections do not happen just every 4 years and not just when one feels like it. If we Democrats are going to be a strong party we need more people committed to voting in every election. Not liberal/progressive enough for you? Primaries are the place to solve that problem.

    Censorship is rogue government.

    by scott5js on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 02:17:39 PM PDT

  •  Polls? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Over a year from the elections, polls at best provide a road map to where the most likely D gains are.  A year is a long, long time.

    "The test of our progress is not whether we add to the abundance of those who have much. It is whether we provide enough to those who have little. " --Franklin D. Roosevelt

    by jg6544 on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 02:33:24 PM PDT

  •  Advantage for Dems will not last, usless-- (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    The Democrats should refuse to change Social Security benefits at this time and refuse to reduce certain other social benefits.  If they put all of this on the table, the GOP will maneuver as usual to get the better of the bargain, make the Democrats look weak, and they will take that to the public.  Far better to hold the line, stick to talking about getting rid of tax loopholes and corporate welfare.  And, Senator Durbin needs to shut up about changing Social Security.  Hold the GOP feet to the fire for the next 12 months and elect a Democratically controlled House.

  •  This title... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    ...is such a "Stay tuned, News at 6!" title...

  •  This momentum should give Dems a reason (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, ChadmanFL, MetroGnome

    to grow a spine in the deficit negotiations that will inevitably happen in December.  The GOP is the one that created these artificial disasters, and the public is already geared towards making the GOP own them.  

    If Democrats can be forceful in their negotiations, it will have serious electoral ramifications no matter what the GOP does.  Capitulate to the Dems on things like Medicare and Social Security "reform", and dozens of establishment Republicans (who are now apparently a minority in their conference) could wind up losing their primaries, which would only be as little as 3 months removed from the February debt ceiling debate.  Try to force the Dems' hand by grandstanding with another government shutdown, and the GOP will have to explain why making grandma pay more for her medical care while cutting her SS check is worth shutting down services again for the second time in half a year.  The budget negotiations will be around the holidays, and that will certainly leave an unpleasant image in voters' minds as they discuss politics at Christmas dinners and New Years parties.

  •  I was just looking back at past elections (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Seems like the generic polls are currently right about where the 2006 national House vote ended up.  Dems carried the national House vote by exactly 8 points that election and took the House with a 233-202 majority.  Of course the latest round of redistricting makes things quite a bit more difficult.  Still, I would think a margin like that would land us at around 220-225 seats.

    If things get worse for the GOP I suppose we could look to 2008 when Dems won the popular House vote by about 10.5 points.  Democrats won 257 seats that election.

    Intelligence agencies keep things secret because they often violate the rule of law or of good behavior. -Julian Assange-

    by ChadmanFL on Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 09:45:11 PM PDT

    •  Generic ballot update for October (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      CNN/ORC 50-42 (10/18-20) D+8
      ABC/WP 48-40 (10/17-20) D+8
      RR 43-36 (10/14-20) D+7
      PRC 49-43 (10/9-13) D+6
      GQR 46-36 (10/7-10) D+10
      NBC/WSJ 47-39 (10/7-9) D+8
      PPP 46-41 (10/4-6) D+5

      Average 47.0-39.5 (9/23-10/20) D+7.5

      The October 2005 average was 46.2-39.0 or D+7.2

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 04:47:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I think the best use of these polls (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, R30A, jncca

    is to recruit strong Democratic candidates in races where it was previously thought they had no chance.

  •  I'd like to see a poll.... (0+ / 0-)

    ...of Boehner's district.  As I recall, it isn't as red as some others in Ohio and sitting speakers have fallen before...

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