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8:44 AM PT: Specials Elections: Oof! Johnny Longtorso recaps that Alabama special election that got delayed a week due to weather:

Alabama HD-104: It's hard to get more one-sided than this. Republican Margie Wilcox defeated Democrat Stephen Carr by a 91-9 margin, keeping this seat in Republican hands.

9:04 AM PT: CA-33: A smart move by Sandra Fluke: The progressive activist has decided to run for state Senate instead of Congress, a race that offers a young, first-time candidate a much better chance of success. The fight for retiring Rep. Henry Waxman's House seat, which Fluke had been considering, already features two heavyweight candidates in former Los Angeles City Controller Wendy Greuel and state Sen. Ted Lieu. Fluke, however, has now opted to seek the seat Lieu is leaving open, which will be a much more wide-open affair. She's also already landed some big endorsements, including one from Rep. Janice Hahn.

And on the subject of endorsements, Greuel has earned the backing of the man she unsuccessfully sought to succeed last year: former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.

9:33 AM PT: NC-02: For some time, it had looked like singer and activist Clay Aiken was serious about running for Congress, and on Wednesday, he indeed made it official. He also released a well-produced welcome video evincing a genuine level of humility and thoughtfulness. But as we've noted before, Aiken will have a devilishly tough time unseating GOP Rep. Renee Ellmers in this heavily Republican district. However, he has an unusual level of celebrity and an extremely devoted fan base. Combined with Ellmers' regular bouts of foot-in-mouth disease, that gives Aiken a non-zero chance of pulling off a major upset. For that reason, we are moving this race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.

9:43 AM PT: Maps: This is cool: New York Times graphics editor Mike Bostock has created an interactive map that allows you to select a congressional district, then highlights all the other districts adjacent to it. I'm curious to know which district has the most adjacent seats, and which (in the lower 48) has the fewest.

9:55 AM PT: MN-Gov: Republican state Sen. Karin Housley, who had been considering a bid for governor since late last year and would have been the only woman seeking the GOP nomination, has decided against running.

10:25 AM PT: AK Ballot: It looks like Alaskans will have a very interesting primary this year, thanks to the various measures piling up on the August ballot. Organizers just cleared the 30,000-signature hurdle that ensures their proposal to make Alaska the third state to decriminalize and regulate marijuana will go before voters this summer. And there's a good chance it will succeed, as PPP's timely new poll shows 55 percent favoring the idea to just 39 percent opposed.

PPP also finds that voters support a measure to repeal an extremely controversial tax cut for oil companies by 43-31 margin. Organizers are also trying to get a minimum wage hike on the ballot, too; while their question wording doesn't perfectly track with the actual proposal, PPP sees 60 percent backing a $10 minimum wage to only 33 percent against. And though this issue isn't up for a vote, for the first time, a plurality of Alaskans support same sex marriage, with 47 percent in favor and 46 opposed. A year ago, opponents were in the majority at 43-51.

10:35 AM PT: OK-Gov: Democrats have landed a candidate to take on Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin: State Rep. Joe Dorman, who'd been exploring the race since late last year, made his challenge official this week. Needless to say, this is the longest of longshots.

10:41 AM PT: GA-12: Republicans may have finally landed an upgrade in their never-ending quest to unseat Rep. John Barrow. State Rep. Delvis Dutton, who has reportedly met with the NRCC, announced his candidacy on Wednesday. First he'll have to win the GOP primary, but the two other retreads running have looked very unimpressive. Businessman (and unsuccessful 2012 candidate) Rick Allen raised just $78,000 in the fourth quarter, while 2008 nominee John Stone took in only $67,000. Barrow, by contrast, raised over $300,000 and has $1.2 million in the bank.

11:25 AM PT: CO-Gov: Quinnipiac's new Colorado poll has some better numbers for Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper on the horserace front, though the dramatic jump in his job approval score merits a bit of skepticism. After three straight polls last year featuring middling approvals (47-43, 48-44, 48-46), Hickenlooper's now shot up to a 52-39 rating—a shift Quinnipiac's memo doesn't even try to explain. So bear that in mind as you scrutinize the incumbent's performance versus the GOP field (with November trendlines in parentheses):

• 48-39  vs. ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo (46-41)

• 46-40 vs. Secretary of State Scott Gessler (45-40)

• 47-37 vs. state Sen. Greg Brophy (44-38)

• 47-38 vs. former state Sen. Mike Kopp (44-40)

If you do believe that Hick's approvals have rebounded, why does he still perform around 5 points worse in the head-to-heads compared to the 52 percent who like the job he's doing? This has been a strange artifact of Quinnipiac's Colorado polling from day one; by contrast, PPP's December poll found Hickenlooper's approvals and vote share in much tighter  alignment. So it's hard to know what to make of Quinnipiac's numbers, but inexplicable gyrations like this should always inspire caution.

11:36 AM PT: LA-06: Republican Garret Graves, who until recently served as an advisor to Gov. Bobby Jindal in his role as chair of the state's Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority, says that he's considering a bid for Louisiana's open 6th Congressional District. Right now, the field is a desultory mess, with only one candidate even posting a fundraising report this quarter, so Graves could have as good a shot as anyone.

11:46 AM PT: VA-10: Nothing says "highly qualified for office" like "Kerry Bentivolio chief of staff," and nothing says "good fit for Northern Virginia" like "ran in Republican primary for rural Kansas House seat," so good on Rob Wasinger for not letting his résumé be an obstacle. Wasinger just quit as Bentivolio's top aide to seek Virginia's open 10th District, and he's emphatically planning to run to the right of the current Republican frontrunner, Del. Barbara Comstock. Four years ago, Wasinger took just 9 percent in the GOP primary when Kansas' 1st District became open, despite somehow raising over $700,000. Better luck this time?

12:19 PM PT: NH-Sen: The League of Conservation Voters is joining in the "dissuade Scott Brown" brigades with a reported $220,000 ad buy attacking the former Massachusetts senator as a tool of the energy industry. The cleverly produced spot features a Brown stand-in (complete with infamous barn coat and pickup truck) tracking an oil slick wherever he goes, while a narrator castigates him for taking "thousands from Big Oil just weeks before voting to give them billions in special government handouts."

12:59 PM PT: AR-Sen: Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor is out with two new ads, each featuring a woman sitting at her Mac laptop (in kitchens with similar cabinetry) who attacks GOP Rep. Tom Cotton for supporting a program to turn Medicare into a voucher system. (That would be our old friend the Ryan Plan.)

1:38 PM PT: NE-Sen, Gov: Republican pollster Harper Polling has a new survey of the GOP primaries for Nebraska's two major open seats. In the race for Senate, former state Treasurer Shane Osborn narrowly edges Midland University President Ben Sasse 30-29, while wealthy banker Sid Dinsdale is in third with 13 percent. For governor, state Attorney General Jon Bruning would start off leading with 35 percent, if he actually decides to make the race. Businessman Pete Ricketts takes 16, with state Auditor Mike Foley just behind at 14 and several other candidates in the mid-to-low single digits.

1:49 PM PT: IA-03: Throw one more Republican into the mix in the primary for Rep. Tom Latham's open seat: Businessman Robert Cramer, who sounds like he may have some personal wealth to burn, kicked off his campaign on Wednesday. Cramer is very much a social conservative and until recently served as chairman of Family Leader, the Christian conservative organization run by none other than Bob Vander Plaats, who is considering a bid for Senate. Also participating in Cramer's launch was incendiary right-wing radio host Steve Deace.

Cramer's entry means that there are now something like half a dozen Republicans competing for their party's nomination, which heightens the chances that no one will get 35 percent of the vote, thus throwing the battle to a convention. As we've discussed, the same thing might also happen in the Senate race, so things could get very interested indeed.

1:55 PM PT: IL-Gov: Billionaire businessman Bruce Rauner has long had the airwaves to himself in the fast-approach March 18 GOP primary, but that's finally about to change. State Treasurer Dan Rutherford says he's about to go up with a $1.34 million buy over the next five weeks, though his initial ad is not yet publicly available. Also according to the Chicago Sun-Times, Rutherford's denying rumors that he might drop out of the race. These rumors may have been totally bogus (who knows?), but it's never good when you have to deal with that kind of thing.

2:02 PM PT: FL-13: Biden Alert! Everyone's favorite VPOTUS is heading down to the Miami area next week to headline a high-dollar fundraiser for Democrat Alex Sink.

2:18 PM PT: FL-Gov: Heh, Bill Nelson fanboys won't like this one. A new poll from the University of Florida finds ex-Gov. Charlie Crist leading Republican Gov. Rick Scott 47-40, while Nelson—whose partisans like to think he's somehow more electable than Crist—has a smaller 46-42 edge. A small difference, to be sure, but if Nelson is still truly considering a run, numbers like this don't help him make the case.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (9+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 06:00:14 AM PST

  •  FL-27: This could be an interesting development (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, James Allen, Sylv, SaoMagnifico, askew

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/...

    Her seat would certainly be competitive if this scandal develops more or if it becomes open...

    •  It'll take more than that to sink IRL (0+ / 0-)

      Just like it hasn't/ won't sink Menendez either.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 06:29:13 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Definitely will take more, but I don't ever recall (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Jacob1145, James Allen, JBraden, askew

        her being under much scrutiny before. So this is only a positive development for Democratic chances in this district.

        And her seat is very much trending Democratic, whereas New Jersey is not trending Republican nationally. This was one of a few districts that Obama won in 2012 (actually by 7 pts), but lost in 2008.

        So I don't think it is wildly unlikely that she could have a competitive race...especially when you think about people like Mary Bono Mack, who had what seemed to be a safe seat, but lost on election day to everyone's surprise.

    •  If this sinks IRL then (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, SaoMagnifico

      It sinks Menendez as well. I just think this is Menendez getting to slick for his own good, but knows where the line is. If he didn't do anything wrong, which I believe, then IRL probably didn't do nothing wrong either.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 06:59:02 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  It is an interesting development (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sylv, SaoMagnifico, jncca

      Not sure how it will play out with either her or Sen Menendez.  It sure looks bad being they were very rich bankers and impoverished many people in Ecuador.  They're playing the angle that the govt down there is corrupt but frankly being bankers are despised even more than politicians I don't know how well that card will work.  if anything the more their story comes to light the worse they and their supporters will look.  These bankers destroyed many lives.  They controlled various media organizations and businesses which the govt rightly confiscated after they fled with the money.  Ecuadorians who lost their life savings were forced to emigrate to make money which means many came here.  The more this story sees the light the more odious these guys look.  I don't know what kind of quid pro quo these guys had with the politicians, maybe they had none other than the fact that the pols were thinking they were helping out wealthy Latinos who were in need.  But the fact that they're tied to these shady ass crooks doesn't look good for either politician.    

      This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

      by DisNoir36 on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 07:53:41 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  FL 13 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, Sylv

    Heavy spending on both sides.  Jolly attacking Sink on basis of "She is a Banker", Jeb endorses Jolly as "knows how to get things done"

    http://thehill.com/...

  •  MN-Gov, MN-Sen (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, bjssp, Sylv, ArkDem14, bythesea, WisJohn

    Precinct level caucuses were held last night, which is where delegates are selected for the future steps, and gives us a good indicator of baseline support for given candidates.
    http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/...

    Gov: Siefert has about a 3 point advantage over Johnson, from what I understand (not cited in the link). Siefert likely needs to have padded results as lower level metro candidates drop out and coalesce around one metro candidate, likely to be Johnson. Right now it seems like it will be a close race between the two men.

    Sen: Ortmann is in a commanding position here, in spite of having similar numbers to the aforementioned Siefert. She leads McFadden by about 2 (again, not cited in the story). But McFadden is not in a position to capitalize once other candidates drop out and likely endorse Ortmann. This endorsement is all but a foregone conclusion at this point.

    I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

    by OGGoldy on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 06:30:03 AM PST

    •  Wait a Minute.... (0+ / 0-)

      .....Seifert is running again?  Have I been snoozing for the last few months?  How did I miss this?  

      •  Is that good or bad or neither? (0+ / 0-)

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 07:55:21 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Given That Seifert Is A Former House Leader.... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades

          ....whose fingerprints are all over some of the very issues the GOP is gonna try to attack Dayton on, I don't think Seifert is the GOP's best candidate.  Plus he's not from the metro area.  Jeff Johnson strikes me as a much stronger general election nominee.  He hasn't been in the legislature since, I believe, 2006....and his home base is in the bellwether Minnetonka-Plymouth area.  Plus he just comes across as the kind of Pawlenty-style center-right Republican that Minnesota swing voters could get behind.

      •  I think you need more coffee, my friend. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Mark27

        Siefert's been running since November-ish.

        I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

        by OGGoldy on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 08:38:18 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Wasn't McFadden the bigger opponent? (0+ / 0-)

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 07:55:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  McFadden is a Romney clone (0+ / 0-)

        No political experience, but had made a fortune by downsizing companies. He has nearly limitless resources, but is a a creepy sleazeball in person. I was never concerned about him. And Ortmann has been doing all the right things on the campaign trail. The nomination is hers, effectively.

        I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

        by OGGoldy on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 08:36:52 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Oddly, Franken v Ortmann may have an effect (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JBraden, Mark27, WisJohn

          Of having the lowest watch competitive senate race debate recently. Not due to the lack of substance, but because it would have all the oratory pleasantries of Fran Drescher singing a duet with Gilbert Godfrey.

          I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

          by OGGoldy on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 08:41:12 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Carey Davis new mayor of San Bernardino CA (8+ / 0-)

    He won the runoff yesterday.

    http://blog.pe.com/...

  •  More signs we will probably get a clean debt hike (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sylv, Jacob1145, ehstronghold, wadingo

    Robert Costa notes just now that House leadership doenst believe they can get 218 votes with a bill that includes Keystone or repealing the risk corridors.

    link.

  •  On the CBO Report About ACA (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, LordMike

    How do we think this affects us electorally?

    I know the CBO report is saying it will reduce the workforce by approximately 2 million (because people will opt for part time work, retire earlier because they can collect subsidies, etc.). My concern is that the incorrect initial shock of "2 million lost jobs because of ACA" is going to be damaging for our incumbents, just when the enrollments are kicking into gear.

    •  Doubtful (10+ / 0-)

      People have already made up their minds on the ACA, so more Republican alarmism won't do much. Since the jobs aren't really being lost so much as people leaving them, a couple days of misleading spin won't accomplish much.

    •  There's mixed messages (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      that muddles whether or not this is anything substantial or just another talking point on the fire.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 08:25:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  My concern is (0+ / 0-)

      that it will be cited in endless attack ads, and as Ronald Reagan said, "When you're explaining, you're losing." (Despite the fact that voters should listen to explanations).

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 08:29:37 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Considering that Wolf "I <3 Romney" Blitzer... (0+ / 0-)

      ...was pretty much talking up the good side of the report to us on CNN yesterday and downplaying the pro-GOP side, I think it probably won't amount to much.  Our argument is strong, too--you are free now to start a business or choose any job you like and not be tied into health insurance.

      Personally, I think the CBO is full of shit.  Early on in the ACA process they scored a preliminary version of the bill as too expensive, because employees would run from their company's health plans to go on the ACA.  The reality?  Trader Joes workers freaking out that they'd lose Trader Joe's coverage and be forced to pick from the "welfare" ACA plan, even though the latter would have been cheaper and more comprehensive.  The CBO isn't taking into account that the ACA is being viewed as more of a welfare bill than a middle class benefit and only people who have no other choice are signing on.  No one is rushing to join these plans, because they are seen as something akin to medicaid, and "embarrassing" to be on.  Long term, that's a big problem for us 'cos welfare bills don't last very long.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 08:32:52 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think the CBO is unconcerned (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, KingTag

        with the political ramifications of their reports, which is probably as it should be. I mean, I think there's something to Krugman's suggestion that it'd be nice if they were more careful with their language, given how the Republicans will spin pretty much anything into their version of the truth and then ingrain it as a fact, i.e. Warren Buffett opposing the ACA when he said no such thing, but before long, we're editing this stuff more and more for political reasons, and Darth Cheney, the original or the sequel, is eagerly awaiting the opportunity to show how eliminating all taxes on the rich would bring out Nirvana.

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 08:50:15 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I would begin to panic, immediately. (0+ / 0-)

      No, seriously now, I just want people to read this post. I suspect it's more of an academic argument that has little to no effect--as people here said in regards to the Gates claims regarding HRC, inside baseball stuff, meant for people that won't affect the end result. That is, unless it gets bad for us, and the headline number helps them pile on. But maybe not even then.

      Not to get too much into policy here, but consider this link,this link, this link, this link, and this link, surely among others. Definitely read the Yglesias links (because when he's on, he's definitely on). Part of what we are will be seeing is less work amongst people who want to work less. In other words, the supply of labor goes down. Maybe you consider this a good thing. Maybe you consider it a bad thing. But it's the same sort of effect you'd see, as Yglesias notes, with Social Security: make it easier for people to work less, and they will.

      More specifically, consider the other Yglesias link, where you read his example of a mother who can now spend more time with her new baby. She's almost certainly directly benefitting from the ACA. Maybe she is like that guy in Kentucky who didn't realize he's benefiting from the law and thinks he's getting lucky for some other reason. Even then, is he really going to be voting against the ACA if he's not already dead seat on doing so, because he's a conservative and wouldn't vote for our side under any circumstances? I happen to believe that the people that are being directly affected by this supply of labor change will be perfectly happy to be affected by it.

      The wonk inside of me wishes we'd be having a debate about how to have a much more basic, universal benefit, as Drum describes--whether single payer or not--that wouldn't necessarily put its thumbs on the scales in such a direct way. Maybe we will have that debate in the coming years, but that's a topic for another time and another thread, if only so I don't get a pee filled water balloon thrown at me by David Nir.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 08:43:08 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Pryor releases ads that remind me of Super PAC ads (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Possible Liberal

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 08:23:24 AM PST

    •  Decent adverts (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      They're obviously attack adverts on Tom Cotton, but it feels somewhat less vicious with the actors used, and the choice of backdrop. Pryor needs to continue attacking Cotton in a non-negative manner, because if voters hate both candidates for their negative rhetoric, it's Cotton who will probably come out on top.

  •  parker griffith (0+ / 0-)

    Wikipedia says he lives in virginia, yet he's willing to change parties more than shirts to run for office rather than run in another state.  Is his love for running for office second only to his love for alabama?  As difficult as it would be running as a carpetbagger, it can't be any harder than sticking with alabama.

    NH-02. First time living in NH, waiting for the candidates to start a courting.

    by DougTuttle on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 08:47:07 AM PST

  •  CO-GOV: Hickenlooper bounces back (23+ / 0-)

    in new Quinnpiac poll.

    He has a 52-39 approval rating, and leads all his potential GOP contenders, faring worst against Secretary of State Scott Gessler(46-40) and best against State senator Greg Brophy(47-37).  

    He's at 45-45 when asked if he deserves re-election, but this seems to be a recurring theme in Qpac polls. I believe Branstand had good approvals but low re-elect numbers in one of their polls as well.

    The approval rating to me is the best indicator of an incumbent's strength.

    link.

    •  That's good to know (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, Jacob1145, sulthernao

      48-39 over Tancredo

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 09:25:09 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Disconnect b/t approval & reelect is weird (4+ / 0-)

      It's odd to see such a big difference between the two.

      But yes I agree the good job appoval combined with the improved ballot tests is decisive.

      This is happy news, Colorado is one state that looked perilous all last year and of course we lost the two state Senators, Morse and Giron, in gun nut-fueled recalls.

      I assume we'll see Senate and Presidential job approvals in Colorado in tomorrow's Q release, since they always poll that stuff together and then release separately.  I have to think Udall's and Obama's numbers have inched up as well.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 09:33:14 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  More from the poll (0+ / 0-)

      Some potential areas of concern for Hickenlooper:

      People disapprove of his handling of the  death penalty 36-28 and 66% want the DP to continue. I think the GOP will go after him on this issue a lot.

      Also, by a 52-43 margin, people oppose the new gun control measures, but majorities do support some of the specific restrictions(background checks and, more narrowly, banning high capacity magazines).

      Also, GOP are less united than the Dems, not surprising since they have a primary. 12-14% of Republicans say "dont know" when asked who they support in each of the head to head general election matchups. By comparison, Hickenlooper gets 93-94% of Dem support, while his opponents only get 1 or 2%!  

      Still though, his approval rating, favorables and his performance in the head to heads all have improved vs the November poll.

      •  death penalty (7+ / 0-)

        I think that would be a mistake. Most people are far more interested in bread and butter issues and would probably be turned off by a campaign on cultural issues. I'd guess that among people who support the death penalty and think it's a big issue, the vast majority are hardcore GOP partisans and only a handful are swing voters.

        SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 09:56:18 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Good points (0+ / 0-)

          Hickenlooper halted the execution order for a death row inmate, so I think that's why GOP will make it an issue.

          But economy/jobs is listed as the top issue, followed by education. This was an open ended question and it doesnt appear DP registered many responses if any.

      •  We have to message better on Guns. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje

        Though the hearing over a bill to repeal background checks helped us.  Partly because it puts the specific gun control measures front and center instead of relying on a general idea that people don't like.  Also, they did conduct the hearings better for support and opposition in a better way than when they were working on the bills last year.

        If you listen to fools, the Mob Rules

        by CO Democrat on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 10:19:39 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  This makes a lot more sense (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, jj32, wadingo

      Tancredo now at negative favorabilities, 25-31.  The governor is at 47-37.

      No surprise Hickenlooper beats Tancredo 48-39.

      By 57-43, people are "satisfied" with how things are going in Colorado today.

    •  I think we all know why Coloradans are (11+ / 0-)

      more satisfied lately. With the Governor, with their snacks, with everything. Man.

  •  AZ-SoS: Ex-AG Terry Goddard clear for Dem nom: (19+ / 0-)

    http://www.azcentral.com/...

    I didn't realize he was running for SoS.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 09:47:47 AM PST

  •  If no one else's Brian Higgins' (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    okiedem, R30A

    only touches one other district. Are there others?

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 09:48:56 AM PST

  •  FL-13: Biden Alert! He will hold a fundraiser (9+ / 0-)

    for Sink in Coral Gables, FL on Feb 12.

    Interesting move. If I recall, Sink distanced herself from Obama in the 2010 governor's race, which was probably a mistake. An appearance by the President in a liberal area of the state might have helped her win such a close race.

    Also, I wonder if Bill Clinton will join the campaign as well.

  •  There are lots of districts which border only 2 (0+ / 0-)

    others. Can't seem to find any single border ones yet though. (have not been looking in cities yet. )

    Ethnically Bostonian lifelong New Yorker

    by R30A on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 09:52:23 AM PST

  •  Borders of CDs (0+ / 0-)

    I know that ME-01 borders only two other districts, ME-02 and NH-01. ME-02 borders both of NH's districts, so it wouldn't take the prize.

    I wouldn't be surprised if ME-01 was the answer, since Maine is the only state that borders just one other state.

    (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

    by ProudNewEnglander on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 09:52:30 AM PST

  •  AZ-4 touches 11 other districts, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    including 5 other AZ districts, 1 UT, 2 NV, & 3 CA.

    That's the most I could find, but it's hard to zoom in to the cities.

    23, flaming Male, in WA-06, raised in UT-02

    by speitzer on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 10:03:25 AM PST

  •  the old NY-01 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Skaje

    only touched NY-02 by land. (I don't consider it bordering the RI districts as this map does...)

    Ethnically Bostonian lifelong New Yorker

    by R30A on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 10:22:58 AM PST

  •  FL-Gov: UF poll Crist 47-40 (16+ / 0-)

    http://www.tampabay.com/...

    Really feel good about Florida this year, I'm optimistic in the chances of Crist, Sink and Graham.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 10:25:48 AM PST

  •  Related map question (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    aamail6, gabjoh

    Which district + all of its neighbors has the greatest land area?

    Just eyeballing it, it looks like NV-02 or WY-AL, but in reality the answer is AK-AL, of course.

  •  NJ-01: This video sums up how I feel (0+ / 0-)

    on Andrews retiring only to have Donald Norcross fill up the void real fast, again leapfrogging the pecking order thanks to his family ties: http://youtu.be/...

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 10:33:52 AM PST

  •  Sabato on the overrated races of 2014 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    aamail6, BKGyptian89

    Good Politico article by the best (IMHO) of the political handicappers, Larry Sabato, about which races aren't likely to pan out as all that competitive. Note his number one - Kentucky Senate, which I'm in full agreement on. If you wonder why I'm always arguing against people getting to excited about either Bevins or ALG, this article gives a good summary.

    Note also the race he does not include in this - Georgia Senate. If we are going to win any Republican seat this year, it's going to be this one, not Kentucky Senate.

    http://www.politico.com/...

    •  Why shouldn't we? (6+ / 0-)

      ALG has consistently polled tied with long-time, universally-known incumbent McConnell even after he has spent against her and Bevin.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 10:39:28 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I especially liked (5+ / 0-)

      how it includes VA-Sen, and appeared in Politico the same day as an article fawning over how Ed Gillespie, who most Virginia voters probably couldn't recognize from a cord of wood, suddenly somehow makes that race competitive just by entering.  (It did not mention polls showing Warner beating Gillespie by about 2-1, with both candidates named.)

      38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 10:42:12 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  He also included Virginia Senate (14+ / 0-)

      He might have to eat lunch alone in the Politico cafeteria now after that.

    •  He's all over the place (5+ / 0-)

      How can NY-Gov be over-rated, who in the hell is even paying attention t NY-Gov.  Same thing with VA-Sen, the only people discussing that are the other side of Politico.  

      And did he really say that Kasich will be a 2016-Pres contender if he's re-elected in 2014?  Sure why not.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 10:57:41 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  McConnell's Sen election numbers (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        pademocrat

        1984 - 49.9%
        1990 - 52.4%
        1996 - 55.5%
        2002-  64.7%
        2008 - 53.0 %

        His ratings are underwater and he is the Washington insider of all insiders. It may be tilt R at the moment but it is clear that ALG has a legitimate shot much more so than some races that do not even have candidates like NY. What a joke to even compare the two races.

        •  It would be malpractice not to try (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, wadingo

          Given his poll numbers. That doesn't mean we should expect success. And I don't think many do. Then again, Bunning barely won in 2004 with Bush carrying the state by 20 points. It is possible even if it isn't likely.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 11:31:09 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Kasich (0+ / 0-)

        On paper he's a decent candidate but...meh. Nobody cared when he ran in 2000 and nobody will if he tries again in 2016. Almost the definition of "nothing to get excited about" in a contest where a little excitement is necessary.

        One GOP Gov who I think will run is Bill Haslam. I saw his proposal for free community college/trade school for all (and paid for out of existing revenues, thus avoiding NEW TAXES) as something hardly necessary for a re-election battle, but as something that would be a popular thing to campaign on  nationally. No idea what his odds would be, but the GOP hasn't had a legitimate Southern hopeful in some time.

    •  people here are acting different about GA (7+ / 0-)

      this is the only case I've seen here of people thinking we'll do better in a midterm than we have done in presidential elections in a place that is trending Democratic relative to a place that is ancestrally Democratic, and to add to that a place where we are much, much more dependent on non-white voters for our base.

      I understand that the Atlanta suburbs are trending Democratic a bit, but I will place my faith in Kentuckians who have been voting Dem for state offices a lot recently before Deep South whites, even in the Atlanta suburbs. I'm not saying we'll win KY before GA, but I think its a safer bet.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 11:10:48 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Georgia is predicated on facing loony tunes (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje, James Allen, pademocrat, wadingo

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 11:27:29 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  yes (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, bjssp, wadingo

          in Kentucky we are facing a deeply unpopular incumbent. And even if we think that there's a good chance that Broun is the nominee, and even if we think that there's a good chance that Gingrey or Kingston would also prove to be weak as the nominee (and I think there's a good chance of that), in Kentucky there is an even better chance we will face a deeply unpopular incumbent.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 12:06:35 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  But I don't think it matters (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            BKGyptian89

            Think about it this way. McConnell is deeply unpopular, yet he's still beating ALG or at least tying her in every poll. This is without unleashing his millions on a negative campaign that will tie her directly into Obama, who she endorsed twice, and who is not all that popular in Kentucky, from what I can tell.

            I think the mistake people are making with KY-SEN is to look at it from a "McConnell's numbers are way underwater" perspective rather than remembering that Kentucky is one of the most Republican states in the nation on the federal level. Some of those voters are undecided, and some of those voters may even say they will turn out for ALG right now when they call from a pollster. But in the end, there's not a lot of evidence they will in a midterm. A ALG win would be won of historical proportions, much bigger than Harry Reid's win in 2010, for example.

            Two other thoughts:

            1). Kentucky has not elected a Democratic Senator since 1992. That's a span of 22 years. They have not voted Dem at the federal level since 1996, when they went for Clinton. They have exactly one Democratic congressman remaining.

            2). So lets see - popular Secretary of State from a prominent political family runs against an old politician whose seen as a hack, and whose approvals are often underwater. Kentucky 2014 or Missouri 2010? And Missouri has elected a Democrat to the Senate in the past 10 years. Even taking into account the difference between the two cycles, it's the longest of longshots to think ALG will pull this off, despite what the polls say now.

            Anyway, that's probably a good summary of why I'm still cynical about this race, and why I agree with Sabato that we overrate our chances are winning it.

            (heck, I see Jed Lewison has been reduced to citing Rasmussen to show how we will win).

            •  that's a much smaller part of my argument, (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Stephen Wolf, wadingo

              though. You didn't respond to anything in my initial comment, which I think is much more important.  As for some of your points:

              This is without unleashing his millions on a negative campaign that will tie her directly into Obama, who she endorsed twice, and who is not all that popular in Kentucky, from what I can tell.
              No, they've already spent a lot of money attacking ALG. I quickly googled and saw over a million from Mitch Superpacs alone.

              As well the 1998, 2004 and 2008 senate races were all very close; this isn't Wyoming.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 12:34:14 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Right, so I think... (0+ / 0-)

                in your initial comment, your point was that Kentucky whites are more willing than Georgia whites to vote for a Democrat, and that makes you feel that ALG has more of a shot, correct?

                I guess my response is two-fold 1). I think state is different than federal in regards to Kentucky. And at the federal level, Kentucky votes haven't shown much of a willingness to go for the Democrat. You rightfully point out that the races in 1998, 2004 and 2008 were close, but I think you neglect to mention that two of those cycles - 1998 and 2008 - were much better years for the Dems than 2014 is likely to be, and 2004, Bunning made some Aiken like mistakes against his opponent (i.e. comparing him to Hussein) that McConnell is likely not to repeat. And Dems lost all three. 2). I think that Broun and Gingrey are much weaker candidates than McConnell, which is why I give Nunn the edge in Georgia - also Nunn is a bit more of an outsider.

                (tell me if I missed anything here).

                I guess what this comes down to for me is that I think the poll numbers on McConnell are misleading for this cycle, and also again the problem that even before the general election campaign starts, McConnell is still either winning or tied ALG despite being such an unpopular guy. TommyPaine below claims ALG is in control, but the reality of it is that McConnell has a lot more money than she does, and with that a better ability to define her. And remember, that definition is going to be all about her relationship with Obama - and as much as she tries to distance herself, she endorsed him twice.

                Sabato and I think alike on this one, and I feel pretty comfortable in my assumptions, if not that fact that I'm predicting a pretty loathsome guy is going to be reelected over a much better choice. But I want to do my part to try to keep this blog reality based, and I think a lot of people on here aren't really looking closely about how this is all likely to play out.  

            •  You confidently have an odd assumption (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14

              Mitch has had millions for decades.  Everybody knows him.  People who are undecided aren't looking to be convinced ALG is not worthy of their vote.  That idea will lead to convincing negligible amounts of voters.  Mitch has to convince voters who are fully aware that he is a douche, voters who specifically answer that they disapprove of him, to vote for him anyway.

              There is no other way to characterize this race as a pure tossup, with ALG the one in control.  If she makes herself warm and fuzzy and acceptable, she wins.  If she stumbles and blunders, she loses.  Mitch can do next to nothing to impact that.  He'll just attack her, look like a douche, and leave voters with the exact feeling they have about him now.

              The closest recent comparison here is Illinois Gov and Senate 2010... but with ALG a bit more likeable than Kirk, and Mitch a bit more loathsome than anyone else.

              All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

              by tommypaine on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 12:34:24 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Wait though.... (0+ / 0-)

                In Illinois Senate, there was no incumbent, and Kirk won in a year that was great for his party. You're saying 2014 is going to be as good for Dems as 2010 was for Republicans?  The governor's race seems to be a little more analogous, and there Quinn did pull it off despite a very bad year for his party.

                I'm not going to convince you, but I guess my last argument here is that what Mitch has to do with his millions is not convince voters that ALG is a bad person, but that she's too tied in to Obama in a place where Obama is very unpopular. Another way of saying this is even if you don't like Mitch, if you hate Obama even worse and you're convinced a vote for ALG is an endorsement of Obama, you'll likely vote for the douche.

                •  I disn't say the same, just most similar (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Stephen Wolf

                  I can see your point.  I'm just saying that Mitch's millions are not going to be the deciding thing here.  People don't like him.  That isn't going to change.  he can use his millions to try to get ALG hated too, which would benefit him, but very few voters should be deciding this on which one they hate least.  

                  Instead, they'll decide based on whether ALG can make them like her.  If she fails, she loses.  It may seem like a fine point, but I'm saying ALG's campaign is much more important than Mitch's.  You could phone Mitch's campaign in at this point.... we know exactly what he'll do and we know how douchey he'll look doing it.  

                  All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

                  by tommypaine on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 03:51:41 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

              •  I think both ALG and MM have a (0+ / 0-)

                a chance to win this. I'm not sure she's really in control, but, to use the same words for the third time, she has an opening. He might be able to break out a lead in the polls for one reason or another, but the fact that he's not doing better is a sign he's weak, particularly in a state where there's hostility for the opponent's party at the federal level. She'll probably have to do more than act warm and fuzzy to win, but she probably realizes that.

                "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

                by bjssp on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 05:57:14 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  KY v MO (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Skaje, JBraden, wadingo

              McConnell would have dusted Grimes in 2010, likely worse than Paul beat Conway. Conversely, I think Carnahan would have been competitive with Blunt if that seat had opened up this year.

              I think the GOP was seen far more positively by most voters in 2010 than it will be in 2014 as its favorables are terrible now. The economy is also in much better shape now, another reason I think that 2014 is shaping up as a neutral year despite Obama's weakish numbers.

              SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

              by sacman701 on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 12:52:30 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  If the environment is 2010 (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, wadingo

              then no, ALG has no chance. If it's neutral, she has a small chance. Second distinction, while Blunt was viewed as an insider hack, he wasn't as polarizing or unpopular as McConnell.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 02:51:40 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  ALG has yet to make her full case, I think. (0+ / 0-)

              Maybe she won't be able to in a way that is convincing enough for her to win, but it's still way, way early. It wouldn't surprise me if a lot of people have yet to really pay attention.

              I just think we have an opening, and ALG has shown some decent promise--more than decent, perhaps.

              "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

              by bjssp on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 05:53:57 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Except Grimes is tied (0+ / 0-)

              With McConnell even without having rub any ads. The right has been running ads against Grimes nonstop since she entered and she is still tied with McConnell. Once there is Democratic airpower, she is going to be very competitive and lead him. His approvals were break-even in 2008 when he won. He is now the most unpopular senator in the country. Someone with 35-40% approvals doesn't get reelected to the senate. And stop mentioning history. No Republican has been elected to the senate from MA Since the 70s...no Democrat has carried Indiana since 1964...oh wait...

      •  And what's wrong w. thinking we can win GA (0+ / 0-)

        before winning KY. These same Dems in Kentucky who vote Dem for statewide office, turn the other way and vote GOP for federal races. Unlike you, I don't any faith in these Kentuckians.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 12:27:09 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Georgia whites (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, wadingo

          vote overwhelmingly Republican in all races. You do have faith in some of them changing, though.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 01:07:04 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yea I do (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            aamail6

            And in Kentucky all of these Democrats vote Republican in all federal races. People keep saying McConnell is sooooooo unpopular, well Reid wasn't popular in Nevada and he still won. I still believe we'll win Goeorgia before we do Kentucky, I'm not saying we can't do both, but unlike you, I like our chances in Georgia than in Kentucky.

            NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

            by BKGyptian89 on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 01:14:13 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Reid won because his opponent was (6+ / 0-)

              batshit insane. Had Brian Sandoval, Brian Krolicki (lt gov), or Dean Heller run they almost certainly would have defeated him. Reid won because he deterred all of them from running and helped engineer the primary so he could face Sharron Angle, who really wasn't all that well funded either since her direct-mail fundraising was very high burn-rate.

              •  You don't think I know that??!! (0+ / 0-)

                Im just using him as an example. Republicans were confident Reid was going to lose  because he was the Dem leader of the Senate, and was very unpopular in his state. Yet we still won. I just happen to think Dems should not fall into the same trap of thinking with McConnell.

                NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                by BKGyptian89 on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 01:48:46 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I just don't think that comparison applies (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  ArkDem14, James Allen, wadingo

                  when Reid's key to winning was his opponent. ALG is far closer to any of the better three against Reid that I named than Angle. That would be like nominating Alan Grayson against McConnell.

                  Sure McConnell can still win I'm not saying he can't, but the comparison to Reid ends after "disliked party leader with a lot of money."

                  •  Yea disliked party leader with a lot of money (0+ / 0-)

                    Forgot to mention that. But I still see him winning at the end of the day, it'll still still be close. And I still see us winning Georgia, with the breaks going in our way. If I'm in the minority with that opinion then so be it. Cause I know I'm not the only one.

                    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                    by BKGyptian89 on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 02:21:12 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  not only can McConnell win, he's favored to (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Skaje, propjoe, wadingo

                    we're probably going to lose both of these races. We also have a significant chance of winning both, but that chance is definitely less than a 50-50 shot at this point. I don't want to argue this to death because its pointless. We need to try for both.

                    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                    by James Allen on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 05:06:15 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                •  There is no "trap" (0+ / 0-)

                  Reid was vulnerable, but he won, largely because of shitty opponent.  Mitch is vulnerable, and his opponent can't be described as shitty.  Mitch might still win, but he also might lose.  There is no "trap" in trying to beat him.  No one is betting a lung that he is going to lose.

                  All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

                  by tommypaine on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 02:15:50 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Read what I wrote (0+ / 0-)

                    Did I say ALG was a "shitty candidate" I was comparing McConnell and Reid to being unpopular party leaders, who still won, regardless of opponent. When did I said we're falling into a trap in trying to beat? I said we shouldn't fall in a mind trap, in thinking just because he's unpopular, doesn't mean he's certain to lose.

                    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                    by BKGyptian89 on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 02:27:27 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Nobody anywhere thinks he's "certain to lose" (0+ / 0-)

                      There is no trap there.

                      You're stating your point too starkly.  While you may be right that GA is a better opportunity, that doesn't mean KY is hopeless or should be trivialized or could never be won somehow.

                      All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

                      by tommypaine on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 03:55:23 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I hope she wins (0+ / 0-)

                        and she does have a chance to do so. Not saying she's hopeless. Given that KY is red at the federal level, McC has the edge.

                        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                        by BKGyptian89 on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 04:07:01 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

              •  Yeah I remember seeing the headlines (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                ArkDem14

                about Angle's "$14 million quarter" but she spent nearly all of it at the same time and Reid still had the advantage there.

                But Reid's biggest advantage of course was that he was facing Sharron fucking Angle.

              •  One other thing... (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                BKGyptian89, James Allen, wadingo

                Kentucky is more Republican than Nevada is Democratic. So even though ALG is a much better opponent than Angle, McConnell has more of a cushion from the states Republican lean (at the Federal level anyway) than Reid did.

            •  We won't win Georgia "before" Kentucky (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, Skaje, madmojo, wadingo

              We likely lose both, but I bet if we win one, we win both.  And I also put a thumb on the scale -- only a thumb -- in favor of Grimes over Nunn simply because the runoff in Georgia is a big headache for us.  If the Georgia GOP nominates Broun and Nunn is polling around 50 after Labor Day, with a chance to avoid the runoff, then I'll change my mind and agree with you.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 08:17:36 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  As a southerner (in exile) (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, lordpet8, wadingo

        For me, I see Michelle Nunn over performing more so downstate in old Dixiecrat places than I do in the ATL suburbs, ESPECIALLY considering it's a mid-term.

        Her path to victory looks a lot like Mary Landrieu's path (African Americans + white liberals + Dixiecrats + suburban moderates in order of importance).

        23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

        by Stephen Schmitz on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 05:07:08 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  a certain number are necessary (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca

          for her victory, but there simply aren't enough Demosaurs in southern Georgia left to do the job for her.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 05:10:08 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  ALG is running with a strong state party (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JGibson, wadingo

        behind her effort. From what I understand, Michelle Nunn has to create a strong party to get over the finish line, even with some of the clowns they have running. So yeah, as you indicate, KY before GA is a safe bet, although I really hope Nunn can at least plant the seeds for future races.

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 05:48:30 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Hah (7+ / 0-)

    One good thing for Christie out of all this Bridgegate stuff, it's finally making base Republicans warm up to him.

    At last they are realizing that he is a partisan Republican, not a secret Democrat.

  •  Rep. Labrador says (9+ / 0-)

    Boehner should lose his speakership if he brings immigration reform up for a vote.

    Maybe nothing big, considering Labrador was already part of a half-hearted coup attempt against the speaker, but I wonder if many other Republicans feel this strongly against immigration reform.

    •  I think a majority of congressional GOP (7+ / 0-)

      and the GOP base dont want any immigration reform.

      Doesnt matter if the bills is broken into pieces, doesnt matter what the border security provisions are, doesnt matter if there is no special path to citizenship.

      If it happens, it's because Boehner made the tough decision to allow a vote. And I dont see that happening.

      Labrador suggests bringing up the issue next year, if GOP wins the Senate. But then you are putting immigration reform in the middle of a GOP presidential primary.  

      •  Ah so that's what it is (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ehstronghold, lordpet8, wadingo

        Republicans are terrified of going to conference with the Dem-led Senate.  They don't trust their own negotiators, and don't want to end up in a situation where they have to vote against it after voting for it, or risk passing something that will lead to a primary challenge.

        If they get the Senate, then they can just pass deportation and fence bills only and make Obama veto them.

  •  WI AD-96: A badly needed pick-up opportunity (10+ / 0-)

    Republican Lee Nerison has held the 96th since 2004. This seat is similar to a myriad of seats in SW Wisconsin, in that they are quite Democratic on the Federal level, but are stubbornly GOP on the state level.

    The 96th District has a D+5 PVI: Obama won here with 55.6%, and Tammy Baldwin won with 52.5%. Nerison is, however, a tough cookie. He has a reputation as a rural moderate, and this is true to some extent. After all, he was one of the very few GOP Assemblymen to vote AGAINST Act 10. He was therefore able to beat his 2012 Dem opponent, the underfunded veteran Tim Johnson, 59%-41%.

    That said, something is happening to Nerison that I’ve never seen with these SW Republicans: a Democrat is beating him in the money race. The state Dems are putting a lot of effort and resources behind Pete Flesch, a dairy farmer, lifetime SW Wisconsin native, and Chairman of the Crawford County Board. Flesch outraised Nerison this cycle by about 4K, and they have roughly equal CoH.

    There are also some rumors that Nerison may retire. Of course, this is not anything concrete and I wouldn’t count on it. That being said, Democrats have a momentum happening in this seat that hasn’t happened to often. Combined with the Open AD-51, this seat COULD be a pick up opportunity. I will put it as LEANS R due to Nerison’s strong electoral record, but it could very well swing our way soon. SW Wisconsin absolutely needs to turn to us if we have hope of making gains in the legislature

    "Go Forth in Love and Peace" --Be Kind to Dogs -- And Vote Democratic" --Dying words of Senator Thomas Eagleton, 2007

    by BlueSasha on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 11:03:28 AM PST

  •  Can anyone give me a brief explanation (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff, HoosierD42

    as to why the two center-right political parties, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, in Ireland don't typically form coalitions together and instead you get Fine Gael and the center-left Labour as the typical coalition opposing Fianna Fail?

    I also find it curious how Sinn Fein's polling support is now up to the high teens or even 20% or more while Labour has lost much more of their support than Fine Gael despite both being in government.

    •  Big historical rivalries (5+ / 0-)

      As I understand, the two parties are descendents from the opposite sides in the 1920s Irish Civil War.

      Wikipedia offers this quick explanation:

      Evidence from expert surveys, opinion polls and candidate surveys all fail to identify strong distinctions between the two largest parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Many point to Ireland's civil war politics and feel that the basis for the division is the disagreement about the strategy to achieve a united Ireland. Kevin Byrne and political scientist Eoin O'Malley rejected this and have argued that the differences between the two parties goes much further back in Irish history. They linked the parties to different nationalist traditions (Irish Enlightenment and Gaelic Nationalist) which in turn could be linked to migrations of Anglo-Norman and new English into Ireland and the 'native' Gaelic population.

      Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

      by Jeff Singer on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 11:16:40 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Labour's isn't really losing support (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf

      They got overperformed in 2011 because Fianna Fáil was so unpopular, because they were the party in power during the financial crisis. Labour is now defaulting back to where it usually is, low teens, while FF is rebounding.

      25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 10:12:32 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  MD Gov: Ehrlich to appear at Hogan event (0+ / 0-)

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    Bob Ehrlich is going to appear at the opening of Larry Hogan's campaign HQ, which I guess is just about tantamount to an endorsement. And as a the only elected Republican statewide in over a generation, I guess that makes something to Republicans.

    Of course Ehrlich, who has never missed an opportunity to make a dollar will also be selling signed copies of his new book at the event, so it's not entirely an altruistic appearance.

  •  KY-06: Jensen just launched her new website. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stephen Schmitz

    She also officially launched her campaign on the 25th and has been ramping up her fundraising with big names in Kentucky politics. It doesn't look like this race is falling to the wayside.

    http://www.elisabethforkentucky.com/

  •  Artur Davis and Parker Griffith (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14

    With Parker Griffith rejoining the Dems it makes me wonder if Davis is only two failed GOP primaries away from switching teams. I guess we won't know until actually runs for something again.

    As for Griffith I wasn't too surprised to see him rejoin the Dems, there would a good article highlighting some choice quotes from him about the GOP

    "The Tea Party did to the Republican Party what the Democrats were unable to do."'

    He still seems to be rather wishy washy on support of various candidates

    “The Republican party can’t be the party that thinks one of the biggest problems is that there’s too much love in the world.” - Alex Castellanos

    by lordpet8 on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 12:14:33 PM PST

    •  If Artur Davis wants to run (0+ / 0-)

      for something in Virginia, I don't know what it is or when he wants to do so.  If it's Congress, then he's apparently passing on his best (only?) shot by not running for VA-10.  Other nearby districts are either not likely to be open soon or are unwinnable for him.

      38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 12:22:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Artur Davis's problem was his extreme arrogance (7+ / 0-)

        He TRULY believed that he would get African Americans in Alabama to vote for him in the primary simply because he is African American. Because after all, it did wonders for Al Sharpton in 2004!

        •  I read way back then (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, lordpet8, gabjoh, DCCyclone

          that he would across-the-board refuse interviews with media personalities in heavily-African American constituencies and tried to court white conservatives instead.  Remember how EW Jackson would try to claim that Obama took the black vote for granted, well here is an actually legit example of just that.

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 12:40:52 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I would guess the party switch of Davis (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike

            could be explained by the feeling of betrayal, despite the fact that he brought it completely upon himself.

            “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 12:43:28 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Did Parker Griffith ever go out of his way (0+ / 0-)

              to prove his Republican credentials like Davis did? I guess you could lump this all under the self interest category, but still.

              "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

              by bjssp on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 06:00:43 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  Comstock was a big obstacle for Davis (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        He was never going to beat Barbara Comstock.  If he had only an acknowledged lunatic like Black or Marshall to run against, he'd actually have a good shot.  And he wouldn't be nothing against some other lesser-skilled GOP pols in the 10th.  But Comstock is the GOP's rising star here, she draws well both from the establishmentarians and the hard right nuts.  So Davis was never going to get the nod.

        I would guess Davis will never run for anything again.  I can't see him stooping down to a state legislative seat or local office, so forget him.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 08:15:30 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Davis has much less sanity (6+ / 0-)

      Griffith was trying to preempt a difficult midterm election for him and it backfired.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 12:28:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Davis just went nuts after he lost the primary (5+ / 0-)

        he blamed those damn liberals for supporting the Agricultural Commissioner for the nomination over him, overlooking the fact that even his district voted against him in the primary.  He spent so much time taking the black Dem primary vote 100% for granted that they turned against him.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 12:38:01 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  FL Gov UF poll: Crist 47-40 (5+ / 0-)

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 12:16:00 PM PST

  •  NH-SEN (14+ / 0-)

    Scott Brown apparently sold his mailing list to Newsmax.  Though he didn't just give them the contact info of his supporters, he let them write emails that were "authored" by Scott Brown.  They used this to promote an anti-vaxer and a shady "get government money" scam they run.  Blue Mass Group has the details:

    http://bluemassgroup.com/...
    http://bluemassgroup.com/...

  •  NC-Sen FreedomWorks endorses Greg Brannon (3+ / 0-)

    http://www.newsobserver.com/...

    Says he'll be the next Ted Cruz or Rand Paul. May we be so lucky... He's already won Rand Paul's endorsement and seems to be the general tea party alternative to establishment candidate Thom Tillis (who himself is very hard right), but whether or not Tillis clears the 40% threshold to avoid a runoff is still an open question with everyone's name rec so low.

    It might even possibly be a smart move for the Hagan campaign to ratfuck the primary for Brannon given how underwhelming Tillis' two $700k fundraising quarters have been.

  •  PA-GOV: Wolf, McCord leading money race (0+ / 0-)

    Tom Wolf and Rob McCord are leading the money race in the Democratic primary for Gov of PA. Wolf has 11 million CoH (mostly self-funding)  McCord has 6 million CoH (self-funding + leftover from 2012) and Schwartz has 1.9 CoH after raising 3M it looks like she's burning through alot of cash. I doubt Schwartz stays the frontrunner for very long once McCord and Wolf start spending money. Anyways this is looking like a three way race between Schwartz/McCord/Wolf right now.

    •  You do realize she brought in $3M from her (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, Adam B, Jacob1145

      Congressional campaign?

      •  My bad but she still trails McCord/Wolf $$$ (0+ / 0-)

        It's not good for a frontrunner to be trailing money wise against two other opponents her lead was never that big to begin with this race is going to change over the next few months. And I never misrepresented the facts about Schwartz Republicans/Corbett were already linking her to Gosnell, true or not it doesn't matter they will attack her on it just because she ran an abortion clinic. Corbett is desperate he will go negative quick I'm telling you now he will make it seem like she was best buds with Gosnell.

        •  It's not true, so stop spreading it on here. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Adam B, Jacob1145

          I'd rather be the candidate that raised a lot of money from the most donors, instead of loaning my campaign millions. Schwartz has enough money to compete and that is all that really matters.

        •  All the Dems are pro-choice. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Jacob1145, DCCyclone

          And all four support the same set of policies, it seems.  I'm not afraid, at all, about defending the record of a woman who's spent her life doing meaningful work for the public good, and all the polling confirms that such scurrilous attacks do not hurt her.  It does not move the needle. And she knows how to talk about her work:

          Allyson Schwartz gave perhaps her best debate performance to date. She faced a question about her work founding and managing a women’s health clinic that performed abortions. It’s been called a general election risk by conservative Democrats, but the Congresswoman shone in her defense of her record.

          “I helped start a women’s health center that was an important resource for the women in the Philadelphia area,” Schwartz said. “We provided a full range of services: gynecological care, parenting planning, first trimester abortions and prenatal care. There are women today who are grateful for the dignity and fine health service they received from the Blackwell Health Center.”

          [Everyone here knows I'm on Team Schwartz, but only speaking on my own behalf here.]
        •  That's not what you suggested or (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Adam B, Jacob1145

          how you phrased, and that's assuming voters will buy every desperate smear attack on Schwartz.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 03:16:38 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Never said Schwartz was involved with Gosnell (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JGibson

            Just by observing some conservative blogs (Weekly Standard, Daily Caller etc.) it was evident that the Rs were trying to link her to the whole Gosnell thing even though it's bogus. But you don't think the Rs wouldn't run with it anyways knowing how they operate. Their already trying to make an issue out of her running  a clinic, I just think this election should be about Corbett's dismal record and the focus should be on him alone.

            •  I agree that her ties to pro-choice (0+ / 0-)

              activism could hurt her in some areas, like Luzerne-Lackawanna, and in SW PA, where Corbett is very unpopular, but many Democrats or moderates are more blue-collar, union workers, and both religious and socially conservative. I can see your argument on McCord, but wonder also if Wolf is the ultimate outsider here and possibly the strongest candidate.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 04:42:40 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  No one knows who Gosnell is anymore (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              JGibson

              if you're not a die-hard pro-lifer or constantly tuned in to conservative media.  For most people that story was news for a couple of days and if it was brought up in an attack ad, anyone who would care enough to understand it wouldn't be voting for her anyway.

      •  In the past (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Adam B

        there have been relatively new users to DKE who show up with an axe to grind against a single candidate, to the point that it's all they really post about.  It's disruptive and clearly not within the mission statement of DKE ("Analyze elections, not policy").

        I'm seeing that pattern again here.

        •  I don't have a vendetta against Schwartz (0+ / 0-)

          I just see McCord as a stronger candidate that's my analysis; I feel he's more electable I'm not bringing up policy either. And its not like I'm on here talking about Schwartz everyday this is my first post about PA-GOV here in awhile.

        •  I did that a bit with Matheson (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          aamail6, wadingo

          And I apologize for that. In all fairness though, it's not like there's many other Utah Dems to talk about.

          And I'm cool with Matheson now.

          Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

          by Gygaxian on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 06:21:02 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  No it's not (0+ / 0-)

      Wolf is almost completely self-funding and his campaign so far has been unimpressive.  Hanger, Wolf and McGinty all started out as basically Some Former Cabinet Official, and of the three only McGinty has really done a lot to improve her statewide profile...if anyone is going to play spoiler to Schwartz and McCord it will be her.  Wolf is still pretty anonymous and if he didn't have his own money he'd either have already dropped out or be lumped in with Litz.

  •  Christie's pain Walker's gain (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jncca, LordMike

    I just read a really good POLITICO piece on Christie's downfall clearing the way for Walker as I expected would happen. I think it's safe to say Walker is the frontrunner right now of the invisible primary while he's not well known right now and barely registers in the polls come 2015 with the Koch/Rove machine behind him he will emerge as the frontrunner. Even though it's a longshot we really need to work hard in WI this year to at least make Walker sweat Burke doesn't even have to win all she has to do is keep the race close a narrow victory for Walker in 2014 would harm his chances in 2016.

    •  I agree. Walker is extremely dangerous... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JGibson

      He managed to get a not insignificant share of Obama voters to vote for him.  But, with the Democratic party essentially giving up on the governership before the contest has even begun, it's not looking good.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 03:04:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He has a sycophant press in Wisconsin... (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, LordMike, JBraden, askew

        It will be very interesting how he'll hold up to national scrutiny.  

        Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

        by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 03:09:58 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Walker would be very formidable (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          Unlike Christie where the base always hated him and many of the TPers would've sat the election out if he were the nominee Walker unites both factions of the GOP while attracting Obama voters somehow. I could see him giving Hillary a run for her money. Especially if Walker picks someone like Martinez or Ayotte as his running mate.

          •  Walker/Ayotte would be the blandest ticket... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike

            EVAR!!!  

            I'm almost certain Walker would choose Rubio as his running mate.  

            Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

            by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 04:19:58 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  VP will be a women (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike

              I'm confident in that it's the smartest thing to do considering they'd most likely be running against  the first ever female Presidential candidate it will be either Martinez, Ayotte or some chick from the House.

          •  Would Walker get Obama voters in a presidential (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            WisJohn

            election? I thought a good number of them voted against the recall/for him because they didn't approve of the process, not that they loved what his administration was doing. If that's just not an issue in a presidential election, then what?

            "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

            by bjssp on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 06:03:51 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I think that's correct (0+ / 0-)

              Walker won in 2010 because it was 2010 and he had an R next to his name, and he won the recall with the help of a significant anti-recall vote. I don't think he would have any crossover appeal in a national election. What is there in his record that looks good to Dems or even to indies?

              I think Kasich would do better in a general. He at least supported the Medicaid expansion among other things. But Walker is better positioned to win the primary, as he can appeal to both the GOP's activist base and its donor base. I don't think the activist base would go for Kasich.

              SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

              by sacman701 on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 08:12:02 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  He's not dangerous (5+ / 0-)

        Running for President is a different thing, and voters who voted for him for Governor, even twice, are tougher "gets" for President.

        Walker has no appeal to people of color, which right away causes him demographic problems in a bunch of battlegrounds.  I think it's well-known here among regulars that I regard demographics as controlling in Presidential elections going forward for the foreseeable future.  And I don't see any Republicans who can overcome that problem, especially as the GOP image continues to nosedive with communities of color.  Jeb Bush and Chris Christie were in good position to maximize GOP performance, but that still wouldn't be enough against Hillary.  It could be enough against Biden, but even then the solidifying of the Democratic base, including whites, would become increasingly problematic through summer 2016.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 08:06:47 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Who on their side does appeal to nonwhites? (0+ / 0-)

          Aside from an actual nonwhite person, who does? I think it's best to say that Walker doesn't appear to have any less appeal than the others. He's not known for making silly statements on the CRA like Ron or Rand Paul, and he's not a Deep South governor that has had to feign respect for the Confederate flag.

          This isn't to say that he's able to appeal to nonwhites any better than someone else, but he probably isn't any worse. If there's nobody with obvious appeal, it might not be a big issue in the primary. And if it came down to someone (not sure who, exactly, but you never know with that crowd) who had issues with previous sentiments or writings, Walker becomes better by default, if he's running. So would someone else.

          If it's not an issue, because nobody has obvious appeal, how does it hurt him?

          "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 08:16:48 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Walker is "less bad" than some but still bad (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            madmojo

            Walker would have to swing almost all the white swing voters his way to cobble together a victory.  He'd have almost no room for error.  And he would get that only if Obama's job approval come summer 2016 is down around 40%...but even lower might be required.

            Of course a lot depends on Hillary.  In case people didn't notice, Hillary has continued to poll reasonably well even during our winter of discontent.  And now with Obama inching back up into only the mid-40s, she's taking off in firm command.  In her case, unlike almost anyone, early polling means something.  Another Democrat would be weaker, but Walker still would be imperiled.

            Scott Walker is the perfect GOP prototype for a Presidential nominee for the "gap" period from 1980 through 2004.  That was after a large swath of whites abandoned Democrats forever, but before demographic shift tilted the scales back our way.  Walker will be a little more than a decade too late for his ideal run.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 08:27:03 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  But again, who is more appealing than Walker might (0+ / 0-)

              be?

              The argument in favor of Walker for them is not that he gains them anything, but that he doesn't cost them anything. If there's nobody with obvious appeal, then they are all in the same rough spot--unless of course one of them would hurt them with nonwhites. Maybe Walker wouldn't appeal to them any better than, say, Kasich, Snyder or Christie, but it's not obvious he'd be any worse.

              And maybe Walker, through sheer force, could do better with nonwhites. There are plenty of reasons why it wouldn't happen, but small improvements aren't out of the realm of possibility.

              The other thing to consider is that he might totally and completely unite the Republican base. This would at least help them lose gracefully.

              "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

              by bjssp on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 08:39:05 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I agree with you on all that (0+ / 0-)

                I'm not arguing that Walker isn't the strongest Republican absent Jeb Bush or pre-scandal Christie.  He possibly is.  Although he's also no stronger IMO than if Kasich or Thune or Daniels or perhaps a few others who are even-tempered Generic Republicans.

                45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Thu Feb 06, 2014 at 05:44:37 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  Wake me when manages to be in the top 5 (0+ / 0-)

      Or top 7.

      As long as he's polling within 1% of Bobby Jindal and less than Rick Santorum, he's as likely as being the nominee as Romney or Palin are.

      All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

      by tommypaine on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 04:00:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He has the $$$/donors to get nam rec. (0+ / 0-)

        The Koches love him just look how much money they gave him during the recalls looking at the field of candidates they will back Walker he will dwarf the other candidates in money and will rise as time goes by.

        •  Wild logic jump (0+ / 0-)

          Just because they backed him in the recall does not mean they give him even a penny in the Prez race.

          Walker has no money or national constituency at this point.  

          The Republicans have not nominated anyone even remotely like him since Calvin Coolidge.

          he's a nobody from nowhere that nobody gives a shit about, except some Dems looking for a boogeyman... a boogeyman with the personality of a puddle of water to boot.

          Now if the Kochs or Adelson said they were going to spend 100 million on the guy, then he'd be relevant, but he hasn't even been reelected (by 5%+ or by any margin) yet, so he's completely irrelevant till something like that happens.

          All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

          by tommypaine on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 04:41:01 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  He already has 5 mil raised for re-election (0+ / 0-)

            With money from the same people from his recall so their obviously sticking with him. Out of a field of Cruz, Paul, Jindal, and the other loons the Koches and Adelsons are going to want the most electable candidate like they chose Romney.

            •  Which explains why (0+ / 0-)

              Adelson backed Gingrich so strongly, because Newt was the most electable.

              LOL.

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 06:08:24 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I think henster's point is that Walker's (0+ / 0-)

                something of a known entity for for these guys. He might not have the deep relationships with power brokers like, say, Jeb Bush might have, but he's not complete obscure, either.

                "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

                by bjssp on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 06:10:46 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Nope (0+ / 0-)

                  His point was Walker is relevant because he'll have the big money behind him to win the primary.  Somehow he mentions Adelson backing Romney, when Adelson was a Gingrich guy through and through and backed Romney when Newt was out.  

                  The big money donors won't really determine the winner.  They can keep someone viable but after what we saw in 2012 how can we predict anything in a GOP clowncar primary, especially without knowing who's running?  the vote splitting could go about a million waays depending on who actually runs.

                  The only thing I rpedict is that the favorite will change about 150,000 times during the primaries.

                  "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                  by rdw72777 on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 06:28:10 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Gingrich would have been beaten easily (0+ / 0-)

                    by Obama, but despite his scandal-ridden past, he was a credible candidate. Being a former House Speaker will make you that. Whether or not henster meant this, Walker does have some connections to the right people. As a non-insane governor of a decent sized state, he's not at all a joke of a candidate. (Not that he's hugely impressive, but he's not Bachmann and certainly not Cain.) He might start out at a different place than someone more high profile, but that's not a big deal.

                    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

                    by bjssp on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 06:39:21 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

          •  You really underestimate Walker's appeal/power. (0+ / 0-)

            He doesn't have the national base now, but I don't think it's hard for him to get it if he tries. He's a governor of a blue state, who is mild mannered but (far?) more effective than Christie in getting what he wants. He's not a social moderate, but actually a pretty staunch conservative. He's got a blue collarish background while not being the sort that would scare away white collar voters. And he managed to bust public unions in a pretty thorough way.

            There's no obvious choice for 2016 for them like HRC might be for us. I think Walker's record for the other side is quite appealing, and if he seems like a solid choice, he'll get the money he needs to be competitive.

            "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

            by bjssp on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 06:09:20 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  So because Ted Cruz is polling higher right now (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sacman701, jncca

        he's more likely to be the nominee? That line of thinking doesn't make much sense. Polling at this stage is irrelevant to how much money and institutional support candidates might have. Walker will have a shitload of it which is why he's a serious contender. Who the fuck would support Sarah Palin, Rick Santorum, or even Bobby Jindal if they're a party bigwig or huge donor?

    •  Walker wouldn't win his own state against Clinton (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      madmojo

      He's not particularly charismatic either.

      "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

      by Paleo on Thu Feb 06, 2014 at 03:15:42 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  VA-08: Two more Dems to add to the pile (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Jacob1145, DCCyclone

    Del. Alfonso Lopez is in. I understand Lavern Chatman, the former CEO of the NoVa Urban League, is also in, but I can't find any news articles to confirm.

  •  2016: Not that it's breaking news (7+ / 0-)

    but neither John Kerry nor Mitt Romney are going to be running for president again.

    Both were on CNN, separately, this afternoon, and were asked about it, from the various headlines  I'm seeing.

  •  NJ-01: Republican located! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, James Allen, Paleo

    Local sportscaster and former Eagle Garry Cobb:

    Former Eagles linebacker Gary Cobb will seek the state's 1st Congressional District seat being vacated by Democratic U.S. Rep. Rob Andrews, according to Camden County GOP chairman Thomas Booth.

    Cobb had an 11-year career in the NFL and found a home in Philadelphia, where he was a linebacker for the Eagles and then a radio sports talk personality. Booth said the party is excited to be backing Cobb.

    "It's certainly a great opportunity to take back this congressional seat as what it truly should be, which is the people's seat," Booth said in a telephone interview.

    Booth clearly hopes to contrast Cobb's grass-roots appeal with the expected Democratic candidate, state Sen. Donald Norcross.

    "You now have a Democrat candidate who is part of the political elite in South Jersey and is an integral cog in the South Jersey Democratic machine," Booth said.

    •  brilliant! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits, Jacob1145

      "You now have a Democrat candidate who is part of the political elite in South Jersey and is an integral cog in the South Jersey Democratic machine."

      Perfectly tailored message for a district Obama won by 31 points.

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 03:17:49 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  He's right about Norcross (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, LordMike

      but that won't save him.

      In a way I'm glad to not live in the 1st anymore as this would give me the first real experience of reluctant voting (unless Norcross can make a solid case that wins me over).

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 03:20:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'd probably skip that specific ballot line. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh, Jacques Kallis, Gygaxian

        And I can stomach a lot. The Norcross machine is so gross and his brother is last person Democrats need in Washington.

      •  You almost want someone like Bill Bradley (0+ / 0-)

        to run, either in the district or for governor, just to see if he can smash the machine politics to some degree. I get there will always be some element to this in politics, but it seems so much more pronounced, and in a bad way, in NJ.

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 06:16:10 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Ugh, another Eagle. (0+ / 0-)

      Sorry Jersey, we already had this race in 2010 when Boss-approved Adler was defeated by football player Runyan. Nothing's ever fresh in New Jersey.

      Impractical progressive Democrat.

      by redrelic17 on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 09:33:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Someone to take seriously but . . . (0+ / 0-)

      This is not NJ 3.  Very tall order for any Republican.

      "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

      by Paleo on Thu Feb 06, 2014 at 03:12:08 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  NJ-Sen: Booker has a challenger... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Adam B, KingofSpades, JBraden

    Jeff Bell, who was the Republican nominee for Senate against Bill Bradley...in 1978, losing 55-43. He ousted Liberal Republican Senator Clifford Case, the last elected GOP senator from NJ, in the 1978 GOP primary. (I can't remember whether this story was mentioned yesterday)

    His chances look slim:

    Bell, a 70-year-old conservative policy wonk who has lived in northern Virginia for the last 31 years, rented a home in Leonia today and said he plans to seek the state’s Republican nomination to challenge U.S. Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) in November.
    http://www.nj.com/...
    •  Yep, it was mentioned, but still good to mention. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, gabjoh, Marcus Graly

      Jeff Bell was an anti-tax activist back in '78 (in a similar vein to Howard Jarvis of California) who beat out Clifford Case, a legend of NJ politics.  This proto-teabagging gave Democrats a crucial win in a state Gerald Ford narrowly won in '76 and was almost R+2.  Clifford Case died in '82, so at least he got some retirement in before that.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 03:17:07 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Richard Cordray Jeopardy! SPOILER: (4+ / 0-)

    Richard Cordray finished in second place on today's episode, and will not continue on in the tournament.

    In a low scoring game, Cordray finished with $5,200, after responding correctly to the Final Jeopardy answer, which was behind the winner's $7,201. The third-place finisher ended up with $0.

    Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

    by WisJohn on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 03:03:57 PM PST

  •  LA-SEN Landreiu may be target of anti-Keystone ads (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    Tom Steyer the super rich environmentalist who has been giving a lot of to liberal campaigns is gearing up a campaign against supporters of the Keystone XL pipeline meaning Landreiu may be a target of the campaign aswell. I don't think will hurt her at all but it reminds me a lot of when Bloomberg hit Pryor on gun control a few months ago.

  •  GA-Gov: Carter on All In last night (7+ / 0-)

    http://www.youtube.com/...

    The guy is very sharp and bright. Win or lose he has a bright future in GA politics.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 04:09:44 PM PST

  •  AL-SD-01: Last credible Democratic candidate (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Skaje, DCCyclone, lordpet8
    •  What's the likelihood she's working on (0+ / 0-)

      a step up in 2016?

      Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

      by benamery21 on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 05:02:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Sorry to hear that (4+ / 0-)

      but not a surprise I guess.  Republicans targeted the white Democrats in Blue Dog areas with a vengeance in redistricting.

      A lot was written about how badly 2010 hit Democrats in the US House, with all the losses in New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc.  Somewhat glossed over at the time was how badly it wrecked our numbers in Southern legislatures.

      I found this guy who made maps of a number of the Southern state legislature losses in 2010.  Brutal stuff.

      •  Except one Senator (0+ / 0-)

        I recall Grady saying one Dem senator had a ton of Blue Dog and demosaur area shelved into his district and out of the others.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 05:26:55 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  The DLCC should be a focus for the next few cycles (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ehstronghold

        It seems like we've got a lot of work to do, not just in the South, but in the Midwest and even in the Northeast, too. Maybe we aren't completely hopeless in the House, but we'll have a better chance of getting it and retaining it if we can compete in more places. Having a stronger bench in the legislatures would definitely help there.

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 06:20:24 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Flipping (0+ / 0-)

        through those maps is just damn depressing. And to think a lot of those old Blue Dog Democrats that got swept out in 2010 probably were from the economic populist wing of the Democratic party.

        The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

        by ehstronghold on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 10:10:07 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Economic - yes (0+ / 0-)

          (though not all, some were really conservative on economy as well, and some - even more conservative then republicans). But almost all - socially conservative, it's a sort of "must" in many parts of rural South

    •  Sorry, (4+ / 0-)

      but it seems to me more and more often, that Democratic representation in Deeep South legislatures will soon consist strictly of Blacks. With ultrapolarised voting, typical for these states, there are very few "old-style" districts, which are still willing to elect white Democrats. Irons was really one of the last in Alabama, and, most likely, she saw a "writing on the wall".

      IMHO, this a theme for a big diary. So, i hope, some of the people from southern states, writing here, will write one.

  •  AL-GOV: Beasley to announce plans tomorrow (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Skaje, JacobNC, ehstronghold

    morning.

    He's my former State Senator.

    http://blog.al.com/...

    •  The name in the link that turned my head... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      GradyDem

      ...was Kevin Bass.  I was intrigued by that one, because I remembered him playing baseball, he was damn good!......and then I realized I misread the story, and this Kevin Bass is a former minor league baseball player.  LOL.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 08:01:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Better, same, or worse than Griffith? (0+ / 0-)

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 08:23:57 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Do we have a big choice in Alabama? (0+ / 0-)

        Surely - Blue Dog (i remember him vaguely from his days in state legislature) , which is a must (but no guarantee) there, and so on. But even all that will not give him more then 37-39% in normal situation.

  •  NC-02 Breakdown (8+ / 0-)

    A lot of people are wondering how much of a chance Clay Aiken has of winning.  So I did a quick analysis of the 2nd district to show what type of communities and demographics Aiken will have to appeal to.  (Disclosure... in the past I have lived in two different towns that are currently in NC-02... a very small town in Harnett Co. and Fayetteville.)

    Cumberland County (22% of district)
    51-48 Obama, 49-48 Ellmers

    NC-02 contains parts of Cumberland County that are both non-rural (which went to NC-07) and non-black (went to NC-04) and is a swing area.  There is a large military population here and overall the area is socially conservative.  This section of the district is less than 60% white, so Aiken's success here will depend heavily on how many minorities are turned out by Kay Hagan at the top of the ticket.  Having lived in Fayetteville, I can't see any white Republicans or Independents crossing over to support Aiken.  Renee Ellmers is a really good representative of them, actually.

    Randolph County (18% of district)
    74-25 Romney, 69-28 Ellmers

    Randolph County is home to the NC Zoological Park and a ton of Republicans.  In most elections it's the second or third most Republican county in the state.  Democratic candidate Keith Crisco lives here, which is why I thought he would be a better candidate if he could cut into Ellmers margin here (notice - Ellmers underperformed Romney by a lot which tells me she is weaker in Randolph Co).  But after seeing Crisco's fundraising numbers I'm not too enthusiastic about him.

    Wake County (17% of district)
    52-47 Obama, 49-48 Wilkins

    The part of Wake County that is in NC-02 is one of the fastest growing areas of the state, dominated by the suburb of Cary (known in NC as Containment Area for Relocated Yankees).  This area swung towards Romney in 2012, typical of heavily white suburban areas across the country.  However, Cary is really turned off by far right Republicans, and voted heavily against Amendment One and for several Democrats running for downballot Council of State offices in 2012.

    Harnett County (13% of district)
    61-38 Romney, 61-37 Ellmers

    Clay Aiken, Renee Ellmers, and former Rep. Bob Etheridge are all from Harnett County (although Aiken doesn't live here anymore).  So if Aiken had any home county effect, theoretically it would be negated by the Ellmers home county effect.  Ellmers and Aiken are even from the same town.

    Moore County (12% of district)
    64-36 Romney, 61-37 Ellmers

    Home to golf courses and Republicans.  Hence, these are your country club type Republicans.

    Lee County (8% of district)
    54-45 Romney, 53-45 Ellmers

    This county has a quickly growing Hispanic population and is fairly swingy in downballot races.  Definitely a must win for Clay Aiken.

    Chatham County (5% of district)
    56-43 Romney, 55-43 Ellmers

    Liberal town of Pittsboro was drawn into NC-04.  What remains is exurban, heavily white territory with some Hispanic growth in Siler City.  Clay Aiken lives on the northern edge of the county, and he will have to win Chatham if he is to win the entire district.

    Hoke County (4% of district)
    55-45 Obama, 54-44 Wilkins

    Small county: a lot of minorities, some conservative white Democrats.

    Alamance County (1% of district)
    77-23 Romney, 71-26 Ellmers

    One precinct.  Blah.

    _________

    Summary: I would bet a lot of money on Ellmers, and I'm a poor college student.  Aiken's only hope is that a Libertarian is on the ballot and takes 8-10% of the vote.

    •  The best performing Democrats in 2012 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JacobNC, ehstronghold, Skaje

      in the district still lost by a little under 3%. Auditor Beth Wood won 53.7% statewide yet just 48.6% here while education superintendent June Atkinson led the statewide ticket with 54.2% overall but just 48.7% here. Even in 2008 Kay Hagan won just 48.5% despite winning 54.3% statewide, but Wood did very narrowly carry the district that year and secretary of state Elaine Marshall carried it by 4% but she won the state by over 13%.

      So if we're barely or not even carrying this district when our popular incumbents are winning by relatively large margins statewide for state level offices, we can forget about dislodging a not-unpopular Republican incumbent here in a federal race (and yes state and federal results are strong indicators of each other in NC). The 2012 lt. governor race saw Democrat Linda Coleman lose by 0.2%, yet she got crushed by 13.6% in the 2nd district.

      I would imagine Aiken might be able to break 45% if he does well, but getting over 50% (two party) is very highly unlikely. Even in a wave he would lose more likely than not. I fully expect us to hold not a single house or senate seat this Republican after 2014 save for John Barrow's with Matheson and McIntyre retiring.

    •  Ah, thanks for this! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JacobNC

      Perfect reference for my county. I have about 40+ golf courses within 15-20 minutes of my house. It's insane. Although, we may become more diversified if we get a lot of businesses moving into the industrial park they're trying to build on the boarder of Moore and Montgomery.

      Other than that, I think Moore will stay a golf course haven forever.

      22, Male, NC-02 home, SC-04 School. Majoring in Piano Pedagogy. Not your typical DKE junkie!

      by aggou on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 06:36:22 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  NE-Pres: EC winner-take-all bill dies (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, bythesea

    State Senator Charlie Janssen today ended his push for a bill to move Nebraska to a winner-take-all state in the Electoral College.  

    Clearly Janssen isn't having the greatest week.

    28, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 06:57:54 PM PST

    •  I really wish the Electoral College would die. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian, James Allen, bythesea, Skaje

      Maybe I am too caught up in my own thinking, but I am struggling to come up with a reason to keep it around.

      I believe eliminating it would spur a lot of political activity in this country. I mean, if you're vote in some random, sparsely populated Nebraskan county is just as good as mine here on Long Island, why wouldn't both sides try to get it? There are a variety of ways to reach people, so even if the candidates don't make visits, they might run ads. Certainly, it might make sense for there to be a GOTV effort in more places.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 07:22:38 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It won't (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        partly because inertia, partly because Republicans don't want to ditch it so as not to retroactively delegitimize the 2000 election and because all those small red states like punching above their weight.

        I'd be for eliminating it, though I suspect if anything it would make elections more expensive since areas which see nothing now would see much more under such a system. Winning over a swing voter in Ohio would be worth as much as turning out a base voter, and for Democrats, that would mean ads in LA, San Francisco, NYC, which are super-expensive and never get any presidential ads.

        Still a dumb concept though that deserves to go away. I really do think a bill that mandated that binded electors to who won the state, and a 50-EV bonus to the popular vote winner, would be both doable and fix the biggest problems with the EC.

        •  I don't think it'd necessarily mean ads (0+ / 0-)

          in those places. It might mean beefing up the party infrastructure, yet that might, over time, be far less expensive. And since Democrats control those states almost entirely, perhaps it'd be easy to implement some sort of online, mail-in election system, easing the burden of turning people out.

          Those are both big states, as is Texas, and perhaps there's a big chunk of voters in each state that would make working the areas in question a worthy investment if it adds to the overall total. I am not sure if there's a good way to really know who isn't voting and which way they might lean, but then, if the Republicans thought they could simply add millions of votes without many gains for the Democrats, they'd have probably tried to do so a long time ago.

          I also think that we might be reaching a point where it's effectively moot, both because of technology. I've mentioned this before. There are only so many voters left to register in the swing states, even taking into account the usual changes, and something on the level of Katrina that drastically alters a state's population doesn't happen that often. And you can only spend so much much money in each state until the point where it's almost meaningless. Maybe instead of trying to gain a minute advantage in Ohio, Republicans ramp up efforts in Connecticut or Delaware. Perhaps a few cycles of this makes the state competitive, and when there are no more untouched states, it's like the EC is less important.

          "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 07:58:25 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  *your vote (0+ / 0-)

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 10:44:16 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  CA-Gov (0+ / 0-)

    Neel Kashkari raises $900,000 in two weeks. Not completely unexpected seeing as he has deep Wall Street connections. Also he's raised more than Abel Maldonado and Tim Donnelly did all last year!

    http://blogs.sacbee.com/...

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 07:26:07 PM PST

  •  theory on civil rights (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, LordMike, bythesea, WisJohn

    I've heard this theory before which goes something like this: the civil rights movement was certainly about giving the right to vote and other basic rights to blacks and other disenfranchised minorities.

    However, that was only half the story. I've heard someone say that it was as much an intra-white conflict as much as it was a white-black one.

    The theory is that the establishment elite in NY, DC, SF etc had become interested in left wing internationalism and had become increasingly embarrassed by the antics of their flyover country brethren.

    At the same time, there was a rise of reactionary populism in other parts of the country as evidenced by Taft, Bricker, Jenner, McCarthy, Goldwater etc. Many of the bi-coastal elites were becoming worried that there would be a coming fascist uprising and that they were the likely victims and as a result felt that the civil rights movement would be a necessary counterinsurgency.

    Kevin Phillips hints of this in his book "The Emerging Republican Majority".

    •  The motivations behind both sides in Boston (0+ / 0-)

      Were very different from those in say Alabama. In Alabama it was very clearly outside Whites + Local African Americans v. almost all whites.

      In Boston or other Northern cities, where African Americans were generally non-factors at the state level(less than 10% of the vote at best, usually below 5%) it was a power struggle between the Yankee/Suburban elite and the Ethnic Establishment. In Boston that meant Yankee Republicans(rapidly transitioning into the liberal wing of the Democratic Party) versus the Irish Machine, and the opponents in Boston tended to see it more as a plot to breakup their control of local political patronage in the school system(which was the largest government employer) rather than purely racial factors. In fact, many of the urban democrats who fought busing had backed the Civil Rights act a decade earlier.

      Common Ground by J. Anthony Lukas does a good job with the cross-currents.

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