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Oregon GOP senate nominee Monica Wehby
In the wake of McLaughlin & Associates' epic debacle in the Eric Cantor race, anyone thinking about releasing any internal polling from any GOP pollster right now should consider his or her decision very carefully—especially if your numbers cut against the bulk of data already out there. Even Republican pollster Frank Luntz acknowledged this reality and shredded his own party:
"Right now there are 230 House Republicans who are waking up praying that they do not have Eric Cantor's pollster. Honestly, and I'm one of them, we Republican pollsters suck. We have no ability to be able to analyze the electorate."
Now, Oregon Senate hopeful Monica Wehby may think it's unfair—after all, she's using Tarrance, not McLaughlin—but she doesn't seem to have realized the credibility problem she's facing in publishing a poll that shows her trailing Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley by just a 41-39 margin. Just a few weeks ago, after all, the much more reliable PPP found Merkley up 50-36.

But Wehby's timing could not have been worse, because a brand-new independent poll from SurveyUSA for KATU-TV in Portland dropped just hours later. What did SUSA find?

Merkley: 50
Wehby: 32
Next time, listen to Frank Luntz.

10:22 AM PT: P.S. Here was Tarrance on Oct. 25, 2012:

In that snapshot of today's vote model, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by five-points – 52% to 47%. While that gap can certainly be closed by the ground game of the Democrats, reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory.
Nope.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Jun 12, 2014 at 09:36 AM PDT.

Also republished by Koscadia and Daily Kos.

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