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8:44 AM PT: Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso recaps Tuesday's legislative action:

Missouri HD-67: Democrat Alan Green easily held this seat for his party, winning a four-way race with 68 percent of the vote. Independent Tony Weaver and Republican Dwayne Strickland tied for second, each taking 15 percent, while Libertarian Jeff Coleman brought up the rear with 2 percent.

Missouri HD-120: Republican Shawn Sisco won a short-lived victory, defeating Democrat Zech Hockersmith by a 71-29 margin while at the same time losing the GOP primary for the regularly scheduled November general election to Jason Chipman.

Missouri HD-151: Republicans also held this seat, with Tila Rowland Hubrecht defeating Democrat Ryan Holder by a 64-36 margin.

10:04 AM PT: Tuesday night brought us primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington. Here's a recap of all the action, with Daily Kos Elections' race ratings appended to the end of each summary.

KS-Sen (R): Sen. Pat Roberts hung on to defeat his primary challenger, physician Milton Wolf, but by a weak 48-41 margin. If conservatives had found a stronger challenger (one who hadn't posted patients' X-rays on Facebook then made offensive comments about them), and if the tea party establishment had spent real money here, Roberts could very well have lost. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.

Daily Kos released a late poll of the primary, using Google Consumer Surveys, and found Roberts ahead 53-39. For a primary, this result was quite reasonable: just 5 points off for Roberts and only 2 for Wolf. A SurveyUSA poll a couple of weeks earlier, by contrast, had Roberts ahead 50-30.

What's also interesting is that the Google poll was conducted entirely in a single morning the day before the election, a method that traditional polling could not have replicated (and which would have cost far more had anyone even tried). If voter preferences are moving quickly toward the end of a volatile campaign, which may well have been the case here, this approach allows researchers to capture that shift as closely as possible. For a strictly online poll, these results are a promising sign for the future.

In November, Roberts will face Shawnee County District Attorney Chad Taylor, who narrowly beat attorney Patrick Wiesner, 53-37, for the Democratic nomination. Kansas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, but wealthy independent Greg Orman is also in the mix, and he's already been spending freely on TV ads. (Safe R)

KS-01 (R): Rep. Tim Huelskamp turned in a pathetic showing against his Some Dude opponent, Alan LaPolice, winning by just 55-45. Big agribusiness was unhappy with Huelskamp's tea-fueled enthusiasm for cutting their precious federal subsidies, but they failed to put real oomph behind the underfunded LaPolice. Next time, Huelskamp could well go down.

Incidentally, Huelskamp's own polling utterly failed to show the danger he faced: A month ago, The Polling Company had him up 50 points. Even a more recent Remington Research poll for a super PAC that had backed LaPolice had Huelskamp winning 50-29. Yeah, the race probably closed late, and polling primaries is hard, but it shouldn't be this hard. (Safe R)

KS-04 (R): Under other circumstances, Rep. Mike Pompeo's 63-37 win wouldn't seem hugely impressive. But his opponent was the man he succeeded in Congress, ex-Rep. Todd Tiahrt, so his victory was actually quite decisive—and humiliating for Tiahrt. SurveyUSA had Pompeo up just 46-39 with a couple of weeks to go, so they missed this one. (Safe R)

MI-03 (R): Rep. Justin Amash has long infuriated establishment Republicans with his glibertarian propensities, but he nevertheless held on to fight another day. Businessman Brian Ellis fell short, losing 57-43. A furious Amash refused to accept Ellis' concession call, citing ads Ellis ran calling Amash "Al Qaeda's best friend in Congress." Amash demanded an apology from Ellis, and he also called ex-Rep. Pete Hoekstra, who had endorsed Ellis, a "disgrace." (Safe R)

MI-04 (R): State Sen. John Moolenaar, the establishment choice, wound up handily turning back self-funding businessman Paul Mitchell, 52-36, in this solidly red open seat. Two pollsters blew the race, though: Strategic National (a Republican firm) and Mitchell Research (non-partisan) both had the contest as a straight-up tie between Moolenaar and Mitchell with just a week to go. (Safe R)

MI-08 (R & D): Former state Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop beat state Rep. Tom McMillin by a convincing 60-40 margin to secure the GOP nomination for this open seat. Bishop will be the clear favorite against Ingham County Treasurer Eric Schertzing, who held off Susan Grettenberger 43-38 for the Democratic nod. (Lean R)

MI-11 (R & D): Accidental Congressman Kerry Bentivolio proved himself worth of the epithet. Bentivolio, who lucked into a House seat last cycle after Rep. Thad McCotter got thrown off the ballot for filing fraudulent signatures, can now go back to raising reindeer. Foreclosure attorney Dave Trott tossed him off his sleigh by a 66-34 margin, handing Bentivolio the third-worst primary defeat for an incumbent in the last two decades. (In an amusing aside, John Boehner had headlined a fundraiser for Bentivolio last year, and none other than Eric Cantor gave him $10,000!)

Democrats, meanwhile, nominated former State Department official Bobby McKenzie, who narrowly edged physician Anil Kumar 34-32. While the DCCC at one point offered McKenzie a bit of an attaboy, Trott starts the general election with a decisive advantage in this red-leaning district. (Likely R)

MI-14 (D): Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence and state Rep. Rudy Hobbs were neck-and-neck for much of the night, but right at the end, a final batch of votes gave Lawrence a decisive 36-32 lead. (Ex-Rep. Hansen Clarke finished with 31.) Lawrence declared victory and says that Hobbs conceded, but at least at one point overnight, there were discrepancies between the AP's tally and those of local election officials. Detroit's no stranger to wonky election results (remember last year's mayoral race?), so we may not have our answers yet. (Safe D)

WA-04 (2): Republicans won both spots in Washington's top-two primary for this dark red open seat. Former NFL player Clint Didier took first with 30 percent while former state Agriculture Director Dan Newhouse was finished second with 27. (The rest of the field was far behind.) Didier and Newhouse will now square off again in November. (Safe R)

• In Missouri, a constitutional amendment guaranteeing a "right to farm" appears to have passed by an incredibly narrow three-tenths of a percent. Though it sounds charmingly pastoral, the amendment actually purports to exempt farming from regulation (even to the point of permitting puppy mills) and was heavily backed by big agribusiness.

10:46 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Primaries: Thursday brings us primary races in Tennessee (Why Thursday? Nobody knows). We have our guide to the key races here. There's a lot to watch, with Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander, Republican Reps. Chuck Fleischmann and Scott DesJarlais, and Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen all facing credible primary challengers.

11:01 AM PT: FL-Gov: SurveyUSA's newest Florida poll gives GOP Gov. Rick Scott a 45-43 lead on Democrat Charlie Crist, but two weeks ago, they had Crist up 46-40, so if you believe these numbers, then the race has shifted 9 net points in half a month—bloody unlikely. In fact, SUSA's trendlines have shown a lot of inexplicable gyration: In their last seven polls, Crist has led three times and Scott four. But that's pretty typical when it comes to SurveyUSA.

1:05 PM PT (Jeff Singer): MI-Sen: Tim Alberta of the National Journal takes a look at Republican Senate nominee Terri Lynn Land's campaign, and what he finds should not inspire confidence in her supporters. Land had frequently appeared in over her head on the campaign trail, something that even her supporters privately acknowledge. The whole thing is a good read, but this passage at the end sticks out:

But none if it – awkward interviews, sloppy campaign finances, debate performances – may end up mattering. Even with Republican Gov. Rick Snyder atop the ticket this year and poised to win reelection, Land's allies acknowledge her climb is a steep one. Her best chance of winning, they suggest, is keeping her head down and hoping for a GOP landslide.
Wishful thinking is not a great campaign strategy, though it may still be better than running ads like this.

1:14 PM PT (Jeff Singer): LA-05: With the field finally forming in this north Louisiana seat, The Glascock Group takes another look at this crowded jungle primary. They find scandal-tarred Republican Rep. Vance McAllister out in front with 27 percent, with Democratic Monroe Mayor Jamie Mayo just behind at 21. Physician Ralph Abraham and businessman and Duck Dynasty relative Zach Dasher (both Republicans) aren't too far back at 18 and 14 respectively. All the candidates will compete on one ballot in November: In the likely event no one takes more than 50 percent, the top-two candidates will advance to a December runoff regardless of party.

As with all Glascock Group polls, there is one massive caveat here: The pollster does not appear to have offered respondents the chance to say they were undecided. This is a major no-no in polling and anyone reading this survey should take these numbers with an ocean-full of salt.

1:19 PM PT (Jeff Singer): VA-Sen: Hampton University takes a look at the contest between Democratic Sen. Mark Warner and former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie. They give Warner a 53-28 lead, with Libertarian Robert Sarvis taking five. A day may come when the courage of Virginians fails, when they forsake Mark Warner and break all bonds of fellowship, but it is not this day.

1:41 PM PT (Jeff Singer): KS-Gov: It's been clear for a while that Republican Gov. Sam Brownback is in trouble in dark red Kansas, but his allies at the RGA have finally gotten around to propping him up. The RGA's new spot ties Democratic nominee Paul Davis to Obama as closely as possible, mentioning Obama's name an impressive six times in only thirty-seconds. They may have had time for a few more, except that the narrator keeps stretching out the president's name.

Fresh off his 63-37 primary win over a no-name foe, Brownback himself got some more bad news Wednesday. The S&P cut the state's credit score, stating that Kansas was continuing to bring in less revenue than expected. Brownback's tax cuts are very much to blame for the loss of revenue, though of course Brownback takes a page from the RGA and blames Obama. Brownback also blamed the president for his weak primary victory, though he missed a golden opportunity to just sarcastically declare, "Thanks Obama!"  

2:14 PM PT (Jeff Singer): MI-Sen: And it looks like Land will have to wait a while for the hypothetical GOP wave to carry her to her hypothetical Senate seat. A new poll from Republican pollster Marketing Resource Group finds Democratic Rep. Gary Peters in the lead 47-40. In March, MRG had Land up 40-38. These numbers are in line with most recent polls.

2:19 PM PT (Jeff Singer): MI-Gov: Republican pollster MRG takes a look at the gubernatorial race and finds things are very tight. Republican Gov. Rick Snyder and Democratic nominee Mark Schauer are pretty much neck and neck, with Snyder up 45-44 (Or as the memo puts it, 44.6 to 44.3). In March, MRG had Synder up 47-39. Most recent polls give Snyder a small single-digit lead, with Huffpost Pollster's average putting Snyder up 46-43.

2:20 PM PT (David Jarman): WA-01, WA-04: Washington elections enthusiasts know that the vote-counting is a leisurely, multi-day affair (it's an entirely vote-by-mail state, and votes postmarked on Election Day are valid), requiring a patient watch of each day's ballot drop. Wednesday morning's drop saw little change in the 4th, where Republicans Clint Didier and Dan Newhouse finished well ahead of everyone else in the large field and will face of in an all-R November fight.

In the 1st, the only other remotely competitive House race in the Evergreen State, there's a close fight for 2nd place, and things still aren't improving for Pedro Celis, a wealthy ex-Microsoft exec and the NRCC's preferred pick to challenge Dem freshman Suzan Del Bene; Celis trails unheralded (and unfunded) Robert Sutherland 15.9-15.1 (with a 720-vote margin). At first whiff, it seems like another case of the Republican base not getting on board with a Hispanic-surnamed primary frontrunner (a la Todd Long beating John Quinones in 2012 in FL-09, or Will Hurd beating Quico Canseco this year in TX-23), but it may also have something to do with effort. Joel Connelly reports on how Celis seemed to treat the primary as a cakewalk, while Sutherland worked on building under-the-radar support.

2:31 PM PT (David Jarman): MT-Sen: Vox Populi, a Republican polling firm (though not apparently acting on a client's behalf), is out with a Montana Senate poll, taken on Sunday and Monday so that it reflects the news from one-and-a-half weeks ago about the John Walsh plagiarism scandal. On the one hand, it shows Walsh has little chance of winning the election: it finds Walsh trailing Republican Steve Daines 47-34. On the other hand, the poll's trendlines allow us to make the case that Walsh's plagiarism greatly improved his chances of winning in November, as in late May, he trailed Daines 56-33!

2:31 PM PT (Jeff Singer): Ads & Independent Expenditures:

GA-Sen: Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn highlights her service as a non-profit executive.  

HI-Sen: Democratic Sen. Brian Schatz touts his local endorsements ahead of the Aug. 9 primary.

IA-Sen: NextGen Climate goes after Republican Joni Ernst on renewable energy jobs. Thankfully the group has lost the overblown theatrics that defined their very strange first ad here. On the other side of the aisle, Crossroads GPS portrays Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley as disinterested in helping veterans.

KY-Sen: The Kentucky Opportunity Coalition paints Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes as a liar bankrolled by anti-coal groups. The spot is part of a $663,000 buy we highlighted earlier.    

AK-Gov: Republican Gov. Sean Parnell touts his jobs record.

FL-Gov: The Florida Republican Party goes after Democrat Charlie Crist on property taxes.

OR-Sen: Freedom Partners ties Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley to Congress, portraying him as a wasteful spender. The spot is part of a three-month $3.6 million buy from the Koch-backed group.

NH-Gov: Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan talks about her successes in office in her first ad.

RI-Gov: Providence Mayor Angel Taveras hits Democratic primary rival and former Obama Administration official Clay Pell. The spot portrays Pell as someone who barely spent time in the state before running for governor. Until now Taveras and fellow primary contender state Treasurer Gina Raimondo had been going after each other on the air, leaving Pell alone. Pell has been running a series of positive ads, and Taveras's camp has seems to have finally decided he's a threat.

On the Republican side, Cranston Mayor Allan Fung goes over his biography and accomplishments in office. The spit ends with the tagline "Conservative Allan Fung," which I'm guessing they won't keep if Fung makes it to the general in this very blue state.

WI-Gov: Republican Gov. Scott Walker contrasts his job record as governor with job losses when Democratic Mary Burke was commerce secretary.

IA-03: Democratic Staci Appel touts her biography, with the narrator praising her for her hard work and determination.

NY-24: Democratic Rep. Dan Maffei emphasizes his work ethic.

2:32 PM PT: AK-Sen: A new poll from Moore Information, which blogger Amanda Coyne says was not conducted for Dan Sullivan or anyone involved in Alaska's Senate race, finds Sullivan leading Mead Treadwell 35-27 in the GOP primary, with Joe Miller at 16. (Note that Coyne also calls robopolls "a suspicious polling method.") That's virtually unchanged from June, when Sullivan was up 36-27, and it's also very close to PPP's new poll, which put Sullivan ahead 35-29.

The primary is now less than two weeks away, so Treadwell doesn't have much time to make a move. The real question for Democratic Sen. Begich is whether he'd actually prefer Treadwell to Sullivan, though. That's been our assumption all along, given how badly the GOP establishment wants Sullivan to win, and how poor a fundraiser Treadwell is. But the Republican nominee, no matter who he is, will have access to plenty of money and outside support, and Treadwell isn't a carpetbagger like Sullivan. Maybe he has his own weaknesses, but on further reflection, Begich's best option isn't quite so clear.

2:45 PM PT (David Jarman): NJ-Sen: New Jersey Senate polling has always had this odd tendency to create mirages during summertime, that lures in Republican ships and then dashes their hopes on the rocks in November. This year's no different: Quinnipiac's newest poll of the New Jersey Senate race offers up some vaguely tantalizing flickers for the GOP, with Cory Booker under 50 and leading throwback candidate Jeff Bell by only 10, 47-37. (Bell was the Republican Senate candidate in 1978, when he shocked moderate incumbent Clifford Case in the GOP primary and then got stomped by Bill Bradley in the general -- you might say he's a hipster tea partier; he was teabagging decades before teabagging was cool). The NRSC is well-familiar with the wrecks of the SS Dick Zimmer and the SS Doug Forrester, though, and doesn't seem likely to get pulled into the shallows again.

2:46 PM PT: OH-Gov: GOP Gov. John Kasich widely outraised his Democratic challenger, Ed FitzGerald, between June 13 and Aug. 5, $2.3 million to $545,000, though FitzGerald had more individual contributors. Kasich also has a considerable cash-on-hand lead, with $11.4 million to FitzGerald's $2.4 million. But in three of the other four statewide races (for treasurer, attorney general, and auditor), Democrats actually raised more than Republicans during the same period, even though all three Republicans are incumbents.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (8+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 06:00:02 AM PDT

  •  AR 2016 PPP: Clinton trailing (12+ / 0-)

    "Huckabee is also by far and away the strongest Republican for the general election in the state, leading Hillary Clinton 55/39 in a hypothetical contest. Clinton would be relatively closely matched with the rest of the GOP contenders, although she still trails all of them- it's 46/41 against Jeb Bush, 46/42 against Ted Cruz, 45/42 against Rand Paul, and 42/41 against Chris Christie. Part of the reason for Clinton's respectable showing may be the residual popularity of her husband- Bill Clinton is still seen favorably by 50% of Arkansans to 43% who have an unfavorable opinion of him."

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 06:03:34 AM PDT

  •  NJ 2016 Quinnipiac: Clinton cruising (13+ / 0-)

    In case you missed my earlier post.

    "Despite his favorite son status, New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie trails former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton 50 - 42 percent in an early look at the 2016 presidential race in the Garden State, measured in a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

    Secretary Clinton has double-digit leads over other possible Republican contenders:  

    54 - 34 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush;
    55 - 35 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
    57 - 34 percent over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.  

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 06:05:43 AM PDT

  •  PPP-AR-2016-SEN: Beebe leads Boozman (17+ / 0-)

    46-40.

    Beebe approvals 60/23 (!)

    Boozman approvals 34/28 (!!)

    20/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

    by Tayya on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 06:06:14 AM PDT

  •  Quinnipiac: Booker up by 10 http://www.politick... (6+ / 0-)

    Quinnipiac: Booker up by 10

    http://www.politickernj.com/back_room/quinnipiac-booker-leads-bell-10

    Seems a bit low, but this is the second survey in as many weeks showing a slimmer than expected lead. NYT-CBS showed him up by just 7 last week.

    Cory isn't turning out to be the juggernaut everyone thought he is. I expected a 20 point win at worst.

  •  I was hoping Huelskamp would lose so I could make (21+ / 0-)

    A "Whoop whoop! That's the sound of LaPolice!" comment, but alas, it was not to be.

    Eurosceptic nationalist gay center-left suburbanite in NJ-11

    by interstate73 on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 06:16:18 AM PDT

  •  IA-03: Staci Appel runs ad #1 (NWOTSOB) (9+ / 0-)

    http://atr.rollcall.com/...

    A positive and decent intro ad. This should be on the top of our donation lists.

    20/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

    by Tayya on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 06:19:42 AM PDT

  •  WI-AG: Political geography of Dem primary (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mopshell, abgin, Setsuna Mudo, gabjoh

    Now that it's less than a week away from the Democratic primary for AG, I want to talk about how the political geography of the Democratic primary.

    First, the geographical bases of the candidates:

    Jon Richards - Milwaukee
    Ismael Ozanne - Dane County
    Susan Happ - Jefferson County

    Judging by the lists of endorsements for the candidates, Richards has a ton of endorsements, mostly from Milwaukee County, Racine County, Kenosha County, and the northern and western parts of the state, Ozanne has quite a few endorsements from Dane County, and Happ has some endorsements from Dane County (most notably Jon Erpenbach and Kathleen Falk), one from Rock County (Tim Cullen), and one from Fond du Lac County (Peg Lautenschlager).

    My guess is that the 2014 WI-AG map will bear a resemblance to the 2006 WI-AG map, with Richards winning over Falk's areas and Happ winning over Lautenschlager's areas, although there are three key factors that may or will differentiate the 2014 scenario from the 2006 scenario:
    - Both Lautenschlager and Falk are supporting Happ
    - Ozanne will play a spoiler role, probably winning Dane County but doing very poorly elsewhere
    - Late momentum is in the direction of Happ

    Also, given that the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board is predicting very low primary turnout (around 15%), ground game is going to be absolutely critical in this primary.

    •  At this point (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      fearlessfred14, HoosierD42

      I don't even know if Ozanne can win Dane County. He's not all that well known here. He was appointed by Doyle and ran unopposed for reelection as DA so this is his first campaign, and it is not going well, to say the least.

      You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

      by Gpack3 on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 09:19:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Who do you think will win the primary? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY
        •  Couldn't tell you. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DownstateDemocrat

          Except to say not Ozanne.

          You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

          by Gpack3 on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 09:25:41 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It's a two-way race between Richards and Happ (0+ / 0-)

            In fact, they're the only two Democrats to have run TV ads in this race. Richards ran this ad, and Happ ran this ad.

            The area to watch is going to be outstate, since Happ is aiming her campaign message toward rural voters, but Richards has a ton of outstate endorsements from the likes of Mark Harris, Nancy Nusbaum, Janet Bewley, Katrina Shankland, Mandy Wright, Steve Doyle, Jennifer Shilling, and so on. Dane County is going to be another area to watch, in fact, Richards could very well come in third place in Dane County, behind Happ and Ozanne. Regarding Jefferson County, that's Happ's home county, and she'll probably get 75%+ there unless her campaign isn't as strong as I think it is.

    •  Political geography (0+ / 0-)

      does not mean what you apparently think it does.

      08/12 PVIs; 24; Gay Burkean Postmodern Pol Sci Dem; NM 2 (From), TX 17 (Home), TX 20 (BA/MA), SC 6 (PhD); "women are the only exploited group in history to have been idealized into powerlessness" - Erica Jong

      by wwmiv on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 08:08:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  GA-Sen: New Nunn TV ad (6+ / 0-)

    Looks like a fine introductory ad, explaining her journey to becoming Points of Light CEO using testimony from what I presume are its employees.

  •  VA Sen Poll: Warner up 25% on Gillespie (11+ / 0-)

    Not sure if this has been covered yet, but a poll from some place called Hampton University shows Mark Warner blowing out Ed Gillespie 55-32 in a two person race. In addition Warner's favorables are great everywhere in the state, even in the most conservative areas. Weirdly, his favorable ratings are higher in central and southeastern VA than in Northern VA.

    I'm not sure if this polling firm is reputable or not. Their last poll of 2013's attorney general's race was pretty off the mark.

    Anyone know if they are a good polling firm or not?

    http://www.hamptonu.edu/...

    http://www.bluevirginia.us/...

  •  Waiting at SFO for my flight to DC (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sulthernao, jj32, ehstronghold

    Does anyone know of good dinner places around the Foggy Bottom area?

    24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

    by kurykh on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 07:11:14 AM PDT

    •  Depends on what you want (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      aamail6, UpstateNYer, JacobNC

      For a sit-down restaurant I'd recommend Founding Farmers (American food). For more fast food type, there's Burger Tap & Shake or Roti Mediterranean.

      •  you may not get a table on short notice at FF (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sulthernao

        those guys fill up fast! the only place I've ever been where even when you reserve a table there is a 15 min wait.

        Grew up in southern VA. Have worked in 9 states across America. Managed races in NM/VA/DC. Was Deputy Political Director at DGA for the 2012 cycle. Follow me @bharatkrishnan if you want to be my friend. Currently managing Catherine Begaye for NM-HD 23

        by Bharat on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 07:33:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Foggy is OK (5+ / 0-)

      But Foggy is only 3-4 blocks from Georgetown where there are a lot more/better options. I'd suggest just taking a walk down M and looking for something, all depends on what you want.

      Be careful down in Foggy/Gtown area this week though, with the African leaders summit security is very tight and traffic is a mess. I had to go through a Secret Service checkpoint walking from the Metro to get sushi in Georgetown last night.

    •  There's a good dosa place in the Whole Foods (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sulthernao

      DC Dosa, along with your other usual Whole Foods salad bar/food court options.

      Other than that there's SweetGreen (good fast-food, chipotle-style salad place) and Roti (aforementioned), but otherwise Foggy isn't fantastic for food. More options a little bit north around Dupont or west in Georgetown.

  •  2016 WI-Sen race officially begins (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, sulthernao, abgin

    Ron Johnson is already attacking two possible Democratic challengers, Russ Feingold and Ron Kind.

  •  walsh thinking of dropping bid (10+ / 0-)

    If he manages to swap with schweitzer, who has issues, but is still probably the best possible candidate, keeping the senate just got easier.  After all that happened,it's probably the most honorable option.

    http://politicalwire.com/...

    NH-01. First time living in NH, waiting for the candidates to start a courting.

    by DougTuttle on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 07:22:06 AM PDT

    •  That's the outcome I'm rooting for (5+ / 0-)

      And it would be better for all involved. Schweitzer has toasted his once-strong reputation with netroots progressives, the only strength he has left is his base in Montana. If he pulls this one out of the fire for Dems, he stays relevant and earns some points.

    •  IDK, Schweitzer seems really unlikely to run (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Bharat

      He isn't going to do anything for the good of the party — he's largely in it for himself. Yes, a presidential bid would be quixotic, but I don't think that deters him.

      Moreover, given the kind of positioning he's adopted, I wouldn't be shocked to seem him in the running to be Rand Paul's running mate.

    •  MgGrath may be better than Schweitzer (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, GoUBears, jj32

      at this point, if Democrats can get him on the second go around.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 09:06:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think he must not do it (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Bharat

      At least he can use the raised funds.

      A new candidate would require an additional effort for a very little chance of winning. It would be to burn a good potential candidate or to have a some dude.

      If D Schweitzer is not a senator at this point is because he wanted not it, and it is very unlikely he jumps now.

  •  KS-GOV (7+ / 0-)

    My new favorite ad for sheer comedic value. How many times can you say the word Obama in 30 seconds?

    Grew up in southern VA. Have worked in 9 states across America. Managed races in NM/VA/DC. Was Deputy Political Director at DGA for the 2012 cycle. Follow me @bharatkrishnan if you want to be my friend. Currently managing Catherine Begaye for NM-HD 23

    by Bharat on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 07:34:18 AM PDT

  •  OR-Sen: Koch brothers launch their multimillion $ (4+ / 0-)

    attacks with a 30 second ad hitting Merkley for voting to increase the debt and against the balanced budget amendment.

    video here

    Interesting because legendary Oregon Republican Mark Hatfield opposed the balanced budget amendment.

    Also Merkley's latest ad about how Wehby is with the Koch brothers has been running on youtube. I saw it 3-4 times yesterday.

    We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

    by James Allen on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 08:00:36 AM PDT

  •  OH statewide race fundraising (9+ / 0-)

    Treasurer Josh Mandel, AG Mike DeWine, and Auditor Dave Yost all took in less money than than their Democratic rivals. SoS Jon Husted came out ahead, but only barely, and Kasich is blowing FitzGerald out of the water.

    The GOP still leads in cash on hand.

  •  UK 2015 election (6+ / 0-)

    Watch out David Cameron, Boris Johnson wants your job:

    Boris Johnson has ended months of speculation by saying he will seek to become an MP again at next year's general election.

    But he said it was "highly unlikely" he would one day stand to become Conservative leader, replacing David Cameron, as there was "no vacancy".

    Mr Johnson also promised to serve his term as London mayor, ending in 2016.

    http://www.bbc.com/...

    If Johnson is elected to the House of Commons he can continue to serve as Mayor of London while being an MP. Also Labour MP Tessa Jowell is highly likely to run for London Mayor in 2016.

    BBC has also compiled a list of seats where Johnson might stand in 2015. Note they are all Tory held seats with four of them held by MPs retiring at the next election.

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 08:11:26 AM PDT

    •  He's running because he thinks Cameron will lose (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, gabjoh, ehstronghold

      and he knows he needs to be in the House of Commons when that happens if he wants to be Prime Minister.

      Jowell is probably running for mayor, but she's standing down from Parliament next year. Several other London MPs (Dianne Abbott, Margaret Hodge, Sadiq Khan and David Lammy) are also rumoured to be interested. Polling for the Labour nomination shows Jowell narrowly ahead, but the candidates are so little known outside their own seats that the numbers are pretty worthless.

      •  Keep (0+ / 0-)

        Diane Abbott away. She would be a complete disaster as Labour's candidate for London mayor. Ditto on Boris wanting to be the next Tory party leader if the Tories lose the next election.

        The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

        by ehstronghold on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 04:46:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  MA-Gov: The Rehabilitation of Martha Coakley. (12+ / 0-)
    One of the first things she did was to hire Doug Rubin, a strategist on two of the most successful populist campaigns in Massachusetts history: Gov. Deval Patrick’s and Sen. Warren’s. Rubin tells me Coakley approached him with a playbook in mind. “She came to us and wanted to run a more grassroots campaign,” he says. “It wasn’t us saying it to her; it was her saying, ‘This is how I want to run. Can you put this together for us?’ ”

    It’s a strategy that wasn’t available to her in 2010, when she had just six weeks between the primary and Election Day. It’s also one that suggests some self-awareness. Patrick and Warren are charismatic speakers. Coakley looks stiff at a podium, like she’s hunching her shoulders—but she’s persuasive in a smaller room. So, she’s been schlepping all over the state to sit down with groups of 10 or 20 pre-K teachers, or community organizers, or union members. Coakley opens by saying she’s there to collect stories and suggestions, not to make a case for herself. “Every campaign is different, and you have to play to that candidate’s strength,” Rubin says. “Martha’s strength is that she’s very sincere, very genuine.”

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/...
  •  One potential bit of good news (5+ / 0-)

    in that NBC/WSJ poll.

    Question 13(PDF). What message are you sending with your vote in Nov 2014.

    33%- a vote against incumbents of either party so that Congress has more new faces
    24%- A vote for a Democrat to help Obama and Dems
    22%- A vote for a Republican to put a check on Obama and Dems
    20%- a different message.

    I focus a lot on approval rate, but this question suggests that despite Obama's low approval, his effect on the election might be a wash, which would be great for a president in a midterm.

    The 33% anti-incumbent vote also seems to fit with the ABC poll showing, for the first time, most people disapprove their own rep.

  •  Johnny Longtorso missed a special (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, James Allen, GoUBears, abgin, gabjoh

    Texas: Senate District 4, State Rep Brandon Creightin obliterated State Rep Steve Toth, both Republicans, in the runoff to represent southeast Texas. Incumbent Republican Tommy Williams resigned to get a cushy gig with Texas A&M

    http://www.burntorangereport.com/...

    SSP alumni, 29, Male, Democrat, TX-14 Elections Blogger for Burnt Orange Report. Collection of Texas elections diaries can be found here

    by trowaman on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 09:18:19 AM PDT

  •  DCCC ramping up ground game for the midterms. (17+ / 0-)
    The DCCC has 444 field staff on the ground in 48 districts, according to an official spokesperson, with another 219 scheduled to start later this month. The committee started August with at least 20 field staff in 11 districts.

    The field effort is starting earlier than in previous cycles. The first permanent staffer started in early January in a competitive California district, which is about six months earlier than before.

    In a competitive district in the Northeast in 2012, the DCCC deployed four field staff, including one field director and three field organizers in two offices. This cycle, in the same district, Democrats have 19 field staff, including one field director, three regional field directors and 15 field organizers, in four field offices to date.

    http://blogs.rollcall.com/...
  •  New ad in CO-Sen from Udall (13+ / 0-)

    hitting Gardner on (surprise surprise) his extreme anti-abortion record.

    There have been previous, probably off-topic discussions on DKE on the merits of focusing on social vs. economic policy in campaigns.  What should be clear to everyone though is how powerful the issues of abortion and contraception can be in Colorado, and how they benefit Democrats in this swing state that Bush won twice.  Udall and the Dem groups wouldn't be hammering Gardner on it non-stop unless they had good reason to believe it works.  And if running campaigns like this keeps solid liberals like Udall and Bennet in office, I think we can all be happy.

  •  It only just occurred to me (8+ / 0-)

    that it's very possible that after this election Dems will hold zero Senate seats in the South (not counting VA and FL, which aren't really southern anyway).

    What's just as remarkable is that, even if they get shut out of the South, there's a good chance they would be only a 49-51 minority, and would very likely hold a majority after 2016.

    •  We would still have Manchin in WV (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY, wadingo

      but yeah it would pretty much mean realignment is complete.

      •  Pretty iffy to call WV "the South" (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, benamery21

        Appalachian, of course, but that's meaningless in context.

        ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -4.75, -2.10

        by GoUBears on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 10:47:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  VA is more southy than WV (5+ / 0-)

          FL changed so much as to be largely unrecognizable as the South outside of the Pensacola-Jacksonville stretch of North Florida.

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 11:07:57 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Definitions of the South are plastic (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, KingTag, lordpet8, askew

            once upon a time, Maryland was considered "the South" and Delaware was a border state that was the last Northern state to have legal slavery.

            “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 11:43:21 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I've always considered "the south" (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades, MichaelNY

              To be composed of the "Confederate 11."  But ya, these days it's harder to define the south politically.  Virginia, Florida and North Carolina have broken away from the rest of the south electorally and it appears Georgia is following quit.  

              I suppose of the non-Confederate states Oklahoma, Kentucky and West Virginia do closely resemble the deep south with their rightward shift at all levels of government in recent elections.

          •  Virginia is southern lite, but definitely southern (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            okiedem, MichaelNY, sacman701

            I think generally if you draw a line from Fredericksburg to Harrisonburg, everything north of that is northern and everything south of that is southern.  That's also pretty close to the "sweet tea" line - every restaurant south of which offers teeth-rottingly sweet tea and most restaurants north of which look at you weird and give you sugar packets if you ask for sweet tea.

            I think this map of religion by county also defines the south pretty well:

            http://media.theweek.com/...

            Look at the baptist areas.  Missouri might be an exception, I don't know if I would consider it southern.  Also, southern Louisiana and the random methodist sects in some parts of the south would have to be considered southern.

            This map from NYTimes' dialect quiz on which areas say "y'all" also seems plausible as a definition of the South:

            http://i.dailymail.co.uk/...

            •  I agree that religious affiliation is one thing (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, sacman701, JacobNC

              that most differentiates the South from the rest of the country (the other obviously being the legacy of slavery and Jim Crow and a modern history of racial polarization). Whereas the rest of the country is traditionally either Catholic or Mainline Protestant, the South has long been traditionally Evangelical.

              There is a very clear difference one notices when crossing the Iowa/Missouri and Oklahoma/Kansas state lines that is (to a large extent) reflected in cultural attitudes and ancestral political allegiances. This difference is reflected in the religious affiliation map above and I believe it's a very effective way to differentiate between Southern and non-Southern regions of the country.

              28, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

              by okiedem on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 12:49:53 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I don't consider the "legacy of slavery" to be (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, wwmiv, okiedem

                a different think from the religious affiliation. Ask yourself why there is a southern baptist church.

                Ok, so I read the polls.

                by andgarden on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 07:48:12 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  This is a very good point and bolstered stongly (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, Skaje

                  by the fact that the Baptist/Mainline divide is very clearly visible at the state boundary of slave states/free states.

                  28, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                  by okiedem on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 09:23:50 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Though to expand... (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, Chachy, Skaje

                    racial polarization and religious evangelicalism operate differently in the modern world. Extreme racial polarization is only evident in Deep South states with large black populations. Although the dominance of Evangelical Protestantism in the South is largely a product of the South's history as a slave society, it has a much wider effect.

                    White voters in Oklahoma, rural Missouri, Kentucky etc. don't vote significantly differently than whites elsewhere in the country when you control for religion, education and union membership (unlike in the Deep South where white voters are monolithically Republican). It's just that these regions of the country have much higher rates of all of these factors which cause voters to be more  Republican (most notably, high levels of Evangelical identification).

                    28, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                    by okiedem on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 09:29:23 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

        •  It's no more iffy than (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Englishlefty, ChadmanFL

          arbitrarily redefining "the South" to exclude VA and FL.

          •  Well, culturally speaking (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            A lot of northern retirees and transplants changed the peninsula of Florida.

            “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 11:11:15 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Sure, but this concept of "culturally Southern" (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, abgin, ChadmanFL

              vs geographically Southern implicitly denies that the South is capable of cultural change. It just reinforces prejudices. No other region of the country is treated this way on this site and it leads to all sorts of bizarre descriptions: Iowa is in the South while Virginia isn't.

              •  demographic change is definitely changing parts (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, PassionateJus

                of the South even beyond the eastern seaboard, but that's the only way that it seems to be changing. There seems to be a real stubborn resistance to change among Southern white conservatives.

                But I don't think my opinion about absence of change without demographic change is limited to the South. My own state of Oregon has been politically similar going back a century or more, being Republican when progressives were Republican, shifting to Democratic when the parties changed.

                We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

                by James Allen on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 11:26:06 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  My issue is that people only define the South (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  by the presence of conservative whites. No one else seems to count toward the definition. To me it speaks to a prejudice in which "The South" must be some "other" against which we define ourselves. If the South starts to look like us, then it must be redefined to maintain its otherness.

                  •  well then your issue isn't with me (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, ChadmanFL

                    I use the census definitions for regions.

                    We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

                    by James Allen on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 11:37:11 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  You have a point of view I haven't seen expressed (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    GoUBears, Charles Hall

                    before, oddly or not. It's interesting. But I don't think it's as simple as you're making it. There are a lot of conservative whites in Wyoming, but no-one would call it part of the South. And being culturally Southern is certainly not only and not necessarily about being conservative. There are very liberal people who are Southern and proud of it. But when Northerners move to Fort Lauderdale and Arlington and Charlotte in droves, they don't suddenly become Southerners, right?

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 11:41:56 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I have seen people describe conservatives (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      in place like Wyoming as "Culturally Southern". Which, as someone who has lived in the South and the West, I find really odd. It seems to be a rather common view on Kos. I completely agree with you that Southern culture is about a lot more than just politics. My problem is that so many people on this site automatically conflate the two. To them Southern culture == conservatism. This is what I find so disturbing. I am culturally Southern more than anything and I am liberal and I am proud of it. As for transplants, like any newcomers, it takes time for them to assimilate to local culture (and to change the local culture). Some never assimilate. Some within a few years are indistinguishable from the locals. This is all normal. What I don't understand is why the South is treated so differently from any other region of the nation (actually I do understand, see above).

                  •  While I appreciate where you're coming from (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    I don't think it's especially controversial to point out that anything from Orlando/Tampa south is not really southern (I don't know anyone who argues that they are in any meaningful sense), and Virginia has clearly become increasingly dominated, politically, by the NoVA, which is also pretty uncontroversially not southern; it's mid-Atlantic or BosNyWash or whatever.

                    •  I think that Chachy addresses this well below (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      but I think it should be controversial that places that are clearly part of the South (like FL) are not considered part of the South. That indicates that there are unique standards that apply to the South only. Take California for instance. We have great political extremes in this state from the most progressive to the most conservative. Neither side however is routinely excluded from our definition of The West or Western. It seems odd to even posit such an idea. According to many on kos, however only while conservatives qualify as Southern and the South is defined by the presence of white conservatives. It's a very isolating world-view for people who identify as Southerners but don't fit the "accepted definition".

                      •  Now that you mention it (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        The idea of "Western culture" is strange to me.  Would that include California?  Utah?  Oregon?  Arizona?  Vastly different states.  And of course "Northern" has ceased to even mean anything since the mid 1900s.

                        •  It is an interesting question. (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY, Skaje

                          Many people here in California would argue that they are a unique entity. I don't really see it. Coastal and inland California are too different from each other. Culturally, much of Coastal California is difficult for me to pin down. It's too diverse and it's still growing. I think that the "old" pre-1960's coastal California was much more closely tied to the inland areas. To me inland and Northern CA resemble the other Western states on the border, so I would argue that there are several subcultures within the West, but it's all still "The West" and distinct from the Mid-west, South etc.

                      •  Sorry I meant Skaje addresses this well below! (0+ / 0-)

                        Still really enjoying the comments from Chachy!

                  •  I get what you're saying (5+ / 0-)

                    And it speaks to people's different uses of the words "the South" versus "Southern".  The South is a region, but people use the word "Southern" to imply a culture, one that is undeniably looked down upon by most people here because it's just associated with conservative white evangelicals (though they are hardly the only people from the South).

                    Anyway, I give a lot of weight to self-identification, i.e. I don't tell people what they are, I listen to what they say they are.  And I think most people from Maryland or Delaware would not identify as Southern if asked (despite the historical definitions which persist in the current Census map).  If anyone can actually find a poll asking Maryland and Delaware residents if they consider themselves Southern, I'd love to see it.

                    I also wonder about Southern self-identification in Texas...wouldn't surprise me if they instead simply consider themselves Texan.

                    So yeah, I understand how it must look to see people removing states from their personal definition of "the South" once the states' politics moderate...at this rate, I think people will be excluding North Carolina and maybe even Georgia down the road.  Which is silly of course.  The South is the South.  It's changing just like anywhere else in the country.

                  •  I would argue that the southerners (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, GoUBears, USA629, James Allen

                    who consider the CSA flag to be their "heritage" are defining it in that way as well.

                    •  And I would call this ridiculous (4+ / 0-)

                      I'm deeply southern and the rebel flag makes me very uncomfortable when I see it flown. I imagine a large portion, if not most southerners feel the same, especially when one remembers that roughly a quarter or more of the South is black.

                      The best way to define the Southern US was and is the states and territory of the old Confederacy: AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, OK, TN, TX, SC and VA. You can argue that parts of some of those states (the Rio Grande Valley in TX, the OK Panhandle, South Florida, the DC suburbs, etc.) aren't culturally Southern, and I would agree. But each one of those states are dominated by Southern foods, Southern culture and a shared regional identity.

                      24, Male, CA- 12 currently. LA-02 & TX-08 originally, SSP: sschmi4

                      by Stephen Schmitz on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 02:25:32 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  I think that it's more subtle than that. (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Skaje, MichaelNY

                      The CSA flag-waving people are a minority in the South. They identify the South with the states of the Confederacy not necessarily with generic conservatism. They are primarily nostalgic for a fantasy "moonlight and magnolias" past and white supremacy.

              •  Iowa is midwestern in culture and geography (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, GoUBears, James Allen, askew

                Good points though.

                “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

                by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 11:40:46 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Exactly! (0+ / 0-)

                  but just wait until a republican in Iowa does something stupid. Then suddenly Iowa is "culturally Southern" in the comments.

                  •  I have never seen anyone say stuff like that (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, propjoe, James Allen

                    I don't read the main page of Daily Kos often, so I can't speak for that area. However, I think that anyone here trying to call Iowa or Wyoming "culturally Southern" would just get laughed at. Steve King in Iowa has been saying stupid things for years, and nobody here has ever called Iowa Southern. All of the debates I've seen are about states that are on the border of the South, like Oklahoma and Missouri, and that's a substantial debate.

                    •  I should start keeping track of the comments (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      They definitely exist and are of often highly recommended. To me it is a symptom of the issues that I have discussed in my previous comments. I think that it is politically dangerous for us to hold the view that the South == white conservatives. It absolutely does not.

                      •  I've seen AZ (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        Charles Hall, MichaelNY

                        described as culturally Southern here and a few other places, which is deeply strange to those of us who are multi-generational Arizonans.

                        Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

                        by benamery21 on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 02:58:51 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  I think it's because "The South" (0+ / 0-)

                          represents a political and cultural "other" to many people on this site. It is defined and redefined in order to match the prejudices and sense of identification of the viewer. Therefore anything that feels alien to that person can be defined as "The South" or "Culturally Southern". Florida is not part of the South until something like the Trayvon Martin tragedy happens. Then it is part of the South again. The problem is that this world-view is profoundly alienating to potential allies in the South, and the South proper has around 1/3 of the US population.

                          •  I don't think what you're saying applies here (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, GoUBears

                            As far as I can remember, people here have always identified most of Florida as culturally Northern, except the parts in the north (Jacksonville and the panhandle), which are culturally Southern. I never saw anyone diverge from this analysis and identify Orlando as culturally Southern, even when the Trayvon Martin shooting happened. You might have a valid point about certain people, but I get the feeling that you should be telling this to the front page; here, you just come off as a bit preachy.

                          •  Maybe it is a tangent for this diary. . . (0+ / 0-)

                            I am only trying to reply to comments directed to me. Anyway, I think that what I am saying absolutely applies. A rigid definition of Southern Culture that identifies it with white conservatives and racism. This definition really fit anywhere, so the region that falls under "Culturally Southern" must be constantly be redefined, sometimes in inconsistent and illogical ways.

                    •  There was a sub-thread a little while back (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Charles Hall

                      debating whether Iowans had southern accents or not.

                      Living in Shizuoka-01 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01. Always number one.

                      by sapelcovits on Thu Aug 07, 2014 at 04:50:30 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                  •  Well, I've seen a very large volume (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Charles Hall

                    of stupid comments in some other corners of this site. There are just a lot of ignorant, immature people online.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 12:19:50 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  A lot of states have ignoramuses. (3+ / 0-)

                    New Jersey has Scott Garrett.  NY has Mike Grimm.  Maine has LePage....

                    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

                    by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 03:19:03 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

        •  You're right that it's a border state (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, JGibson

          I was just going by the Census definition (although I don't consider Maryland to be part of the South). Another one that worked the other way is Missouri, which has both Southern and Midwestern attributes.

  •  Quite the tease from a "Dem Strategist" (14+ / 0-)
    A third factor is the invisible ground game. Democrats say they are pouring more money into identifying, registering and turning out their voters than in any previous midterm election. One strategist predicted privately that what the Democrats are doing in one contested state will shock people.
    link

    It would have to be KS or MS, imo.

  •  So I have (8+ / 0-)

    a personal question to ask those of you who've gone down the same path I'm going down this year.

    Assuming everything goes right this should be my last year as an undergrad. I'm still on the fence whether or not I should pursue my masters (the master thesis' scares me to death, plus its not cheap), but I'm starting to think about how I can get a job in my field of study after college.

    Should I be asking both my past and present professors about where I could intern at, what I can do with my degree? Should I just continue on with my masters because it'll be more attractive in the future?

    I know I should have been asking these questions last year, but I transferred from a 2 year to a 4 year college last year so I was busy trying to get my bearings straight.

    Full disclosure I'm majoring in History (heh). I know it's not the most glamorous degree out there, hell I didn't even want to major in it in the beginning even though I love History.

    Problem was I am really bad at math to the point all the tutors, office hours with professors, etc. couldn't stop me from getting a D in Calculus I. Plus the C's I was getting in the math classes running up to Calculus was weighing down my GPA plus it was physically exhausting. (So that eliminated the STEM and business majors for me.)

    Does anyone who's gone down the same post-college path as me have any advise for me? Right now what I'll do after college is one of the things weighing heavily on my mind. The only silver lining so far is at least I won't have a penny of student loan debt to my name when I graduate next year.

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 10:43:41 AM PDT

    •  you should PM me (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, ehstronghold, LordMike

      majored in history like you but doing something completely different now. (it involves math but it's "soft" math). I'll reply to your msg

    •  are there jobs for people with a bachelor's in (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, TheOtherJimM, LordMike

      history that actually have to do with that degree? I'd recommend getting a masters. I learned some important life lessons in the couple years I had between getting my bachelor's and starting in law school, but I learned them all the hard way.

      We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

      by James Allen on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 10:59:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's a real blessing not to have debt (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, TheOtherJimM

      Take this for what it's worth, but as someone who got a Doctorate in Music Performance, all it really qualified me to do in this job market was work as an Adjunct, and I just quit my last Adjunct job because my course load had dwindled to one (not personal toward me, but something that was imposed on my school as a product of a hostile takeover by a bigger school, and you can message me if you want more details) and it's a dead-end job that there's no point in my continuing to do, as more adjunct teaching won't improve my resume at all (and it's a good resume, but there just are fewer and fewer full-time jobs in colleges, let alone tenure-track ones) and it's not a reasonable living and has no security. But I have another skill: Music performance, which I studied in school and which doesn't require a teaching job. What's your fallback?

      So I think you should seriously consider what kind of job you want to do. If you want to teach in the public schools, you probably will need a Masters, though possibly not when you're hired but within 5 years afterwards (current standards may vary from place to place), and you will need to take required Education courses if you didn't already do so and get certified. I have friends who teach in the public schools, I love and respect them, and I definitely have no interest in ever doing that full-time, but if you do, you could be a real Godsend to a lot of students.

      On the other hand, if you'd really rather do something else, seriously consider whether you need more school in order to do it.

      This is a tough economy, and we simply don't have the kinds of opportunities our parents (and perhaps your grandparents) had. But while anyone with a high school diploma in the 50s was virtually guaranteed to be able to get a job with a good starting salary and benefits at a GM factory or the like, nowadays, no matter how much schooling you have, nothing is guaranteed. There are PhDs on the streets, destitute after getting old and sick and being refused more Adjunct classes - maybe you saw the New York Times article about that. So go to grad school if you really want to do it for the intellectual stimulation and achievement, and especially if you get a fellowship that pays for it (which I blessedly had for all by one year of my grad school, and completed without debt), but if you're doing it to make yourself more employable, be very clear on what kind of work it helps you with in that respect.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 11:01:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Depends on what your master's is in (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY, LordMike

      You can get a job in most fields besides finance, medicine, technology or lab research, and there are plenty of employers outside of those fields who will pay for a master's. However, it would be pretty uncommon for them to be looking for another history degree. Four of my recently graduated history major friends are now having their master's degrees paid for, but they're going for Near-Eastern Linguistics, Organizational Behavior, Public Policy and Comparative Literature. Given that you can put add a historical aspect to almost any non-scientific master's field, that seems like the best bet to me.

      ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -4.75, -2.10

      by GoUBears on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 11:08:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm biased (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, LordMike

      But I'd say once you know what you really want here's my "sage" advice:

      1.  Grad School, paid for individually is ridiculously expensive.  Even if you get a solid return on the dollar, but is it expensive in hindsight (I'm 37).  If you think about grad school straight away, put together a spreadsheet of what your finances will look like afterwards to be sure you know what you're getting into in real terms, not just generic advice.  Excel is your friend (and once you get a job, it will also become your arch-enemy).

      2.  I worry that Math turned you off from Business.  While Business degrees are a dime a dozen a good amount are still useful...my recommendation something international business or accounting-related.  A lot of corporate business jobs really have little to do with Calculus (I've worked in Corp Finance for Retail/Telecom/Insurance) and I never use calculus or even most statistics.  If you are inquisitive and like data (i.e. you like elections data, doing DRA maps, etc) don't throw away something in business.  Of course if you don't like data or business, this is all moot.  

      3.  Learn a language.  I don't care if it's French or if it's Visual Basic.  Add something beyond your direct field.  Start today, teach yourself and make it fun for yourself.  The Mexican-American guy at your local taco stand will be thrilled to teach you a few words per day and have a "bad grammar" conversation when not busy.  Your average coding nerd can't wait to show you how to use code to solve your problems (check out the message board help with macros at mrexcel.com sometime to see my point...IT people on the Internet LOVE helping people become empowered).

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 11:26:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Thoughts (4+ / 0-)

      My brief bio: undergrad degree (math, history of science double-major); thought about grad school, but decided to work and support my girlfriend while she got her PhD (math); still have aspirations of going back to grad school some day. So I've faced the grad school question, I chose one path, and I'm living with someone who chose the other path. Up-close experience with both choices.

      There's not really a right or a wrong choice here.

      - Grad school is a big commitment, and not something you should do because it's the "next step." Any program worth enrolling in is going to challenge you in ways that your undergrad career never did. If you're really into it and you have a good advisor, it can be a great experience. But it's good to go in with eyes open.

      - It's easier to go to grad school now than in five or 10 years-- you've got some academic momentum on your side, and you're in the best possible financial situation (debt-free, no family depending on your earnings, etc). It's definitely possible to go back to grad school in a few years, but it takes a little more planning.

      - Remember also: Grad school isn't an end-goal. At some point, you're going to need to use your degree to get a job. Want to go into academia? Get a masters in history, then transition into a PhD program. Otherwise, think about what other masters programs might be a good fit, and what kind of a job you would do after that.

      - If you decide to get a job after graduation, be prepared to do something that isn't much fun. That doesn't always have to be the case, but your typical entry-level post-college job is going to be dramatically different than what you've been doing the last four years, and probably is going to underutilize your thinking skills. Don't invest too much of your self-worth in your job (something I really struggled with).

      - If you get a job and you're living near a university, explore their post-graduate continuing ed and non-degree programs. It's definitely more work to have a full-time job and be taking night classes, but it will strengthen your application if you decide to go to grad school some day. Plus, it might just scratch that academic itch for a while and help you decide what specifically you're looking for. (This can get expensive, but if you're smart about saving money it's totally worth it.)

      - It is always good to learn new skills-- especially programming languages. Learning new things makes you a better, more well-rounded person, but it also makes your resume better. Enjoy this next year, but set aside a little time (maybe a few hours a week) to learn something non-academic and hold yourself to it. Even if you never use it, the peace of mind of having a potential fall-back is worth it.

      - TALK TO YOUR PROFESSORS! I didn't do nearly enough of this when I was an undergrad, and I really regret it. Pick out two or three that you really like and that you trust, and set up a meeting with them to talk about grad school and career options. Important note: Unless you're thinking about going into academia, don't ask them about what they did or what they would do. Ask them about past students, and what kinds of things they did after graduation.

      - This is absolutely the most important part: Things aren't going to work exactly as expected. The grass will always look greener on the other career path. But you have decades to figure this out, so you can afford a few false starts or a few boring-as-hell jobs.

      Also, as someone with a degree in math and some experience in the math education world: Don't give up on math. Math the subject can be pretty awful, because our approach to teaching it is totally scrambled. Math the way of thinking is something you're using without even realizing it, constantly. Given some time and distance, calculus can look a lot easier with a fresh set of eyes.

      I hope some of this is vaguely helpful. Feel free to PM me some time if you want something more specific.

      •  That was very thoughtful, indeed (4+ / 0-)

        I have one side comment: Going back to school in 5-10 years might be harder, but taking a year off to do something other than be a student is important for many people. I know that it was important for me to take a year off to not be in school, practice, and audition for Masters programs in Music Performance, because I needed the time off to really want to go back to school, knowing that I didn't "have to" continue being a student.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 11:45:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I've just completed my masters in molecular bio (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, lordpet8, LordMike

      It was worth it as it gave me more lab experience and expanded my possibilities for jobs.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 11:45:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  don't get an MA in political science (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, LordMike

      having the master's degree helps get an interview, and it opens up some jobs, but probably isn't worth it.  the master's really depends on the major and job you're seeking.

      NH-01. First time living in NH, waiting for the candidates to start a courting.

      by DougTuttle on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 11:50:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  from what I understand (4+ / 0-)

      among history master's programs, some have more of a research emphasis (which prepare people for academic jobs) and others have more of a professional emphasis (which prepare people for jobs at museums, historical parks, etc.). I've heard that the research master's degrees are almost completely useless because the academic job market is so bad (history is the worst of the worst). However, I have a friend who got a master's degree with a professional emphasis who now has a job at a museum that she likes. NC State has programs in both. The following link is for their professional program (public history): http://history.ncsu.edu/... If you haven't already, I would look around at grad programs to see what's available and if that could work for you. I'm not sure, but I would imagine that you might have more difficulty getting financial aid for professional programs, but you may not have to do a traditional MA thesis. Also, getting a professional degree may be your best option for getting a job in your field.

      Full disclosure: I'm not a historian but I did go down the grad school route for a while, and I would strongly advise against academia unless that is the only thing in the world that you're passionate about.

    •  If you don't know what to do, (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      do the cheaper thing.  Don't do the more expensive thing.

      Also, if you don't feel passionately about something, don't do it.  You are better off doing something you enjoy and really want to do, or at least take the time to find passions and things you want to do.  It is seldom a good idea to do something you are "meh" about.

      All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

      by tommypaine on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 01:38:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Anyone who has to pay for their masters.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      GoUBears

      ...is doing something wrong. Unless you are going to med school, law school, or business school, very few people pay for their own masters. Most everyone in the liberal arts gets some sort of assistanceship, and writing a masters' thesis isn't that bad.  It's actually quite fun to research and write something that will become your seminal work. Many programs don't even have a thesis--you have to take an exam.

      An undergrad in history alone (no other majors?) is going to be very difficult to make a career out of. You have excellent research and writing/communicating skills from your study, but those soft skills need to be leveraged with something more... tangible.

      I love history, too, but the American economy doesn't love it back, I'm afraid.  Reply or PM me if you want to get more info and advice.

      "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

      by LordMike on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 02:13:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Is it really true that very few people pay (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ehstronghold

        for grad school? That just can't be true in the US, in my opinion.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 05:31:13 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Depends on the major... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          GoUBears

          ...and where you go to school and such. Professional majors typically are paid with loans, but non professional degree students have a wealth of opportunities with paying for school. Anyone who is in a pHd tesavhing track program will have their tuition paid at least in part by teaching assistanceships, which are often required by the program (after all, who else is going to do the professor's dirty work?). There are also many grants and such available. The money is out there for grad school. If you paid for a grad school program, you probably missed out on something.

          "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

          by LordMike on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 06:30:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Time for some straight talk, my friend... (9+ / 0-)

      The history major alone is going to be difficult to make a living with. The few jobs that actually could use a history major tend to be very low paying and in high demand from folks like yourself. Most history majors for some reason end up in retail work, which is akin to somewhere between the 6th and 7th plane of hell if you've ever done it.  There are ways to escape that fate, but the road is full of peril, so follow only if ye be a man of valor! if you do doubt your courage or your strength, come no further, for the end awaits you all with nasty big pointy teeth!!

      tim monty python photo: TIM geeky-graphics-TIM.png
      Option 1: Pursue your masters in History

      This option would be the choice if you wish to pursue a career as an academic, i.e. professor. It is not a path to folllow if you want to do something else. The big problem with this option is that history professors, in general, are very low paid and opportunities in the field are limited. History professors do not quit their field, they stick around until their retire, leaving very few openings. With the advent of everyone being part time in the professorial field, this is a difficult path indeed. You really have to be committed to this option, and you need to go to a big name school to get enough prestige to get the few jobs available. The upside is that you probably will be able to get a full ride in most places with a teaching assistanceship. You will need to finish your doctorate.

      Option 2: Do something else

      The traditional path for History majors was to pursue a career in law. The research and writing skills of the historian dovetail nicely with the legal field, especially in common law realms, where precedents can go back hundreds of years. The problem is that the law schools opened up the gates a few years ago and flooded the market with recent law grads who are highly in debt and completely unemployable due to their excessive numbers.  So, unless you have an uncle in a law firm, my advice to you regarding law would be to...
      monty python holy grail photo: Run Away!!! MontyPythonRunAway.jpg

      Another field that dovetailed nicely with the study of history has been Library Science. Once again, technology combined with government budget budget cuts have made most library scientists unemployable.  

      This all sounds pretty discouraging, I know, but it's not the end.  You fortunately have some time to prepare and decide what you want to do.  It may be too late to tack on a another major (although a minor may be a possibility), but there are other avenues to pursue. If you want to go into business, you can jump into accounting right now (it's actually pretty interesting), finish the coursework for a CPA and get it even without a business degree. Although more prestigious business institutions want a few years experience before accepting MBA candidates, lots of other schools will take your right out of college. You can even get assistanceships in those schools, since most MBA students get paid by their companies for their degree and do not apply for them.

      There are other opportunities, some of which have been mentioned here and many more that have not been mentioned.  The first thing you should do is run, not walk to your career services office and if they don't help you, find another one at another school (they will usually help you for a fee, especially if it is a state school).

      You are starting early. You will be OK. Now go to career services tomorrow and figure out what you want to do with your life!!! :-D

      "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

      by LordMike on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 04:50:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Don't stress yourself out too much (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, James Allen, wwmiv

      My first question is what areas interests you? I think the easiest thing to do is figure out what interests you and take the proper steps over the next year to make that a reality.

      Are you involved in any co-curricular/extracurricular actives? What other kinds of experiences do you have?

      My roommate last year was going through the same thing. She ended up taking an AmeriCorp position at a nonprofit and I guess she is working in an area that interests her. I know she will eventually go back for some kind of professional school.

      My personal opinion is that the social science/business professional programs are great. However, I feel they are best for people with 2-4 years of professional experience. Professional graduate degrees are better for helping your advance you career rather than starting it. I am in a professional graduate program right now. I entered it straight out of undergrad. While I am more confident about finding a job than I was out of undergrad, I feel a little behind the eight ball because all my peers are getting higher level positions than I will get.

      Another thing to consider if you are passionate about a certain area , several different professional programs may work in that work within the field. Fro My experience different professional degrees look at problems differently. Taking some time to work in the field and figuring out how you like to think about the issue can be helpful for deciding what type of professional program you want to do.

      In my opinion the only other reason to go get a non-professional masters is to boost your chances of getting into a PhD program. That being said, I think most schools have started to make their masters programs into more of a professional program.

      Feel free to message me if you have any questions.

      M, 24, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

      by slacks on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 09:55:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Look (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JacobNC

      I won't sugar coat it:

      Getting a degree in a social science or humanity is, for most people, a massive mistake. The job market in these areas simply cannot - and will never be able to - sustain the number of people who currently get (or already have) the related degree. It's a major problem.

      Without venturing too much into policy, I will point out that I believe that colleges should place a financial aid penalty on undergraduate work that is not STEM. That isn't to say that non-STEM work is less valuable or less academic, but rather that STEM fields are where we need workers. In fact, social sciences and humanities are often - and certainly used to be - more academic than are STEM degrees. They should be the domain of the most intelligent and intellectual students with the most promise.

      My suggestion is thus this: if you are truly interested, and driven, to study history or a particular related social science such as anthropology, I would absolutely pour myself into it full force. After that, I would suggest applying to a master's program in the same field or a niche within that field that does not have an attached or that is not nestled within a Ph.D. program. You're basically guaranteed to get in to those programs, and most will hire you to do more basic assistantship work and many will also have tuition assistance or grants and scholarships and such. Take advantage of those. Use this program, where you will no longer have to worry about classes unrelated to your focus, as a way to prove yourself to a more advanced Ph.D. program and then apply to at least 6 Ph.D. programs when you are finished with the MA, and accept whichever program is best that also offers you full funding.

      However, I would also suggest that you consider more interdisciplinary work (this does not mean have an unfocused area of study, but rather means picking an area of study that draws from many approaches and disciplines) so that if a tenure track position is unattainable when you finish your Ph.D., that you will have more options within the private job market. You're more hirable that way. You also happen to be more hirable in the academic market as well.

      This, by the way, is exactly the advice that every mentor I've ever had has given me, and it is my current approach.

      08/12 PVIs; 24; Gay Burkean Postmodern Pol Sci Dem; NM 2 (From), TX 17 (Home), TX 20 (BA/MA), SC 6 (PhD); "women are the only exploited group in history to have been idealized into powerlessness" - Erica Jong

      by wwmiv on Thu Aug 07, 2014 at 12:53:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MI-Sen: Second thoughts on Land (10+ / 0-)

    It's always nice to read this kind of of article when they're about the other guys, not us.

    Terri Lynn Land is officially her party's nominee for Michigan's open Senate seat, and Republicans are less than inspired. Not that that should come as any surprise.

    There's one simple reason Michigan Republicans worked feverishly to recruit someone other than Land to run: She is not a top-tier candidate. The last few months of her campaign is proof, revealing the warts and weaknesses that her allies have always known could ruin the GOP's best opportunity in two decades to take a grab at this Senate seat.

    [...]

    "She wasn't anybody's first choice, for a variety of different reasons. And we're seeing why," said one longtime Michigan GOP heavyweight who asked not to be identified because of his friendship with Land.

    There's not really any new information in there. But it feels good to read. Pure empty calories.
  •  Public employee unions apparently haven't been (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, bythesea

    spending much this year here in Oregon.

    My somewhat educated guess is they're waiting to see how things develop in legislative races, putting together a campaign against Top 2, and are probably going to hold their fire in the senate and gubernatorial races unless they feel like Merkley will need them. After the public pension reform that Kitzhaber pushed through I don't think their memberships would be enthusiastic about coming to assist him, though I know the unions are appreciative that he helped derail the Right to Work ballot measure that never got off the ground.

    We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

    by James Allen on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 10:54:16 AM PDT

    •  and an update: (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY
      The state's largest union, Service Employees International Union Local 503, announced Tuesday it had endorsed Kitzhaber even though "we don't agree with all of his tactics."

      Meanwhile, Oregon Education Association has decided not to endorse or finance either candidate. Spokeswoman Becca Uherbelau said members of the union who participate in its political activities voted on who the union could support, and it chose not to recommend either Kitzhaber or Richardson.

      link

      OEA represents most of the public K-12 teachers in the state. SEIU represents most state workers.

      We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

      by James Allen on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 04:19:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Romney rips Hassan for 'thinking about Senate run' (19+ / 0-)
    "Maggie Hassan has been too busy thinking about running for U.S. Senate in 2016 to focus on the job at hand: fixing New Hampshire's economic stagnation," Romney said in a statement. "Walt Havenstein is exactly what New Hampshire needs right now... Walt has the know-how to put New Hampshire back on the map of the most competitive places in America to do business. I am proud to suport Walt for Governor."
    Link

    Has Hassan even given any indication that she's planning on running for Senate? This seems to me more of Romney's line of thinking than her's and clearly shows us Republicans are scared of Hassan.

    •  Yep, I think you're right. (5+ / 0-)

      Media talks about her for that, but I don't think she has.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 11:44:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Is Halvenstein the establishment pick? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      the other guy is Hemingway.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 11:54:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  hemingway is a party activist (0+ / 0-)

        and could conceivably win the nomination, no one really acres about politics at the moment.  

        Halvenstein is a former president of BAE, a big job provider in the state.  Halv's big claim to fame is that he took Maryland tax breaks only available to a maryland resident a few years ago, which should have disqualified him from running, since a candidate has to have been a resident for seven years.  a month ago a board declared his candidacy legal by a 3-2 vote.

        http://www.wmur.com/...

        NH-01. First time living in NH, waiting for the candidates to start a courting.

        by DougTuttle on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 12:07:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  If she wasn't thinking about it before, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      she sure is now. Thanks Mitt!

    •  Because running for higher office (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ehstronghold, MichaelNY, James Allen

      never crossed Romney's mind when he was governor of Massachusetts?

      If he's so interested in the quality of governance of New Hampshire, then there's certainly something he could even more directly do about it.  He's not the first ex-MA officeholder to do so...then again, Scott Brown may have already screwed that particular pooch.

      38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 07:26:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Ayotte is a rising star... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Or at least they want her to be.  She'll be on the VP shortlist of the eventual GOP Presidential Candidate in 2016, and will have a good chance at actually being tabbed if Hillary is the Dem Nominee. Her Senate seat is also up in 2016 and if Dems could get a top recruit like Gov Hassan, Kelly would have to really contemplate accepting being on the Presidential Ticket as it could hurt her Sen re-election chances, especially against a top candidate challenger like Hassan would be.  

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 08:08:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Michigan Downballot Results (7+ / 0-)

    In SD-13, Marty Knollenberg (son of Joe, who lost in 2008 to Gary Peters) won a narrow 72 vote victory over Rocky Raczkowski (who lost in 2010 to Gary Peters), with State Rep. Chuck Moss coming in a distant 3rd.  

    Incumbent Wayne County Exec. Robert Ficano got just 6% (!) of the vote in the Democratic Primary and came in 5th.  Warren Evans, former Detroit sherriff, won with 44% of the vote.  

    Stephanie Chang won the Democratic primary in HD-06, and she will most likely become the first Asian-American female member of the Michigan state legislature.  

    Republican, MI-11, Member of the DKE Engineering Caucus, SSP: Bort

    by Bart Ender on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 11:54:21 AM PDT

  •  MN: Pro-gun group backs Swanson for AG (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, MichaelNY, KingofSpades
    The Minnesota Gun Owners PAC backed DFL Attorney General Lori Swanson and took an anyone but DFL Gov. Mark Dayton approach to the race for governor.
    On the other hand, it opted to back Swanson, who will likely face Republican state Sen. Scott Newman in November.
    "Lori has been a steadfast supporter of the constitutional rights of Minnesota’s gun owners as attorney general," Mark Okern, the PAC's chairman.
    Link

    Swanson was apparently endorsed by the NRA back in 2010 as well. This may not matter now but in 2018 if she plans to run for Governor it could come to back to haunt her.

  •  KY-Sen: Clinton event in Hazard draws overflow (13+ / 0-)

    and live TV coverage:
    https://twitter.com/...
    https://twitter.com/...

    Clinton talked about black lung health benefits and economy.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 12:38:48 PM PDT

  •  Hurricane effects on HI primary? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL

    Does anyone there know if their going have any affect on the voting is there any chance voting results could be delayed?

    •  Looking at the maps on Weather.com (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, itskevin

      They're projecting Iselle to hit Hawaii head-on sometime Friday with winds of about 65 mph and exit Hawaii by Saturday morning.

      The second hurricane (Julio) is projected to skirt Hawaii to the north on Sunday or Monday with winds of about 65 mph as well.

      It'll be a messy weekend for sure depending on whether Iselle stays in it's current track model.  It should have passed over Hawaii by election time, but it could leave a bit of a mess behind and dampen turnout.

    •  The election will go on as planned (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje, MichaelNY

      Hurricanes tend to dissipate if they approach the islands from the west due to the relatively cool waters around the islands and Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa essentially scrambling the storm due to their height.  Usually, it's the ones from the south to worry about because the winds could force it to turn north - as it did with Hurricane Iniki in 1992, the last time a hurricane truly devastated the islands, and Hurricane Iwa in 1982.  In both cases, Kauai got the brunt of the storm and in Iniki, it only got the warning 24 hours in advance because it wasn't expected to turn.

      Both Iselle and Julio are not expected to affect the islands on Saturday, the day in-between the expected arrivals.  However, the Big Island and Maui County have made preparations to relocate the voting precincts as a good portion of them are also hurricane shelters.  The governor can also delay voting hours if needed.

  •  MRG has Snyder in dead heat down; Peters up 7 (14+ / 0-)
    Governor Rick Snyder and Democratic challenger Mark Schauer are in a virtual tie heading in the November General Elections, according to a recent statewide survey conducted by Marketing Resource Group (MRG). The Governor’s lead has dwindled from 8 percent (47 percent – 39 percent) since March of 2014.
    Congressman Gary Peter continues to widen his lead over former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land in the race for the U.S. Senate in Michigan to replace retiring U.S. Senator Carl Levin. The MRG poll shows Peters leading Land at 47 percent to 40 percent among likely voters in the November General Election. This is a nine-percentage point gain for Democrat Peters since March of this year when an MRG poll showed Land leading 40 percent to 38 percent.
    Link
    •  Is this a decent pollster? nt (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, sulthernao, jj32

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 01:17:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Always figured (7+ / 0-)

      Peters would outrun Schauer by 4 to 7 points.  I hope this shift can keep up...have no idea why earlier polls were so GOP friendly in Michigan, but it looks like the state is reverting to its lean.  The governor race is starting to look like a real tossup.

      •  Well the way things are trending I'm thinking (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, MichaelNY

        That Peters wins something along the lines of a 55-45 margin.  Though I do think Peters will outperform Schauer by more than 7 points.

      •  Dems were "undecided" (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        they came home. Now we just wait and see if Schauer actually pulls ahead.

        We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

        by James Allen on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 02:19:05 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  My gut feeling (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, MichaelNY

          and it is only a gut, Schauer narrowly pulls this one out.  Unfortunately, I see the opposite happening in Wisconsin.  

          •  I feel the opposite (4+ / 0-)

            Walker is more polarizing, which can be a good thing for him, but I think that might be enough to give Burke the win.

            Right now, I think Snyder pulls out the narrow win. Although it does seem like this race has gotten pretty close.

            •  polls generally underestimate us in MI (7+ / 0-)

              so I think if it stays looking tied Schauer will pull it off. I think if it remains looking tied in WI it'll all come down to turnout operations, and Republicans seem to do pretty well there when its not a presidential election, but I'm not counting us out.

              We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

              by James Allen on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 03:16:11 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Snyder is pretty polarizing too (7+ / 0-)

              Remember that he passed RTWFL in a lame duck session.  Even Walker hasn't tried that kind of crap yet.

              There are two reasons why I think Snyder has a >50% chance to lose right now.  One is that Snyder has antagonized his base on multiple issues (e.g. gas tax).  Second is that I think black turnout will be higher than expected around the country, and especially in Detroit, and that will hurt Snyder more than Walker.

              •  Good points (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                USA629, MichaelNY

                I feel like Snyder has been able to cultivate more of a moderate image than Walker with medicaid expansion and signing the minimum wage increase, but MI is more Dem leaning than WI. And Schauer may be a better candidate than Burke too, we'll see.

                Hopefully, you are right about MI and I'm right about WI. :)

              •  And (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, USA629, James Allen
                Second is that I think black turnout will be higher than expected around the country, and especially in Detroit, and that will hurt Snyder more than Walker.
                And, this is actually something of an understatement if anything seeing as how Michigan's black percentage is over twice that of Wisconsin's (14.2% vs. 6.3%).  I also think folks from outside the region tend to think of the states in the region as fairly similar in political leanings.  I think they kind of have a clue that Michigan is bluer and Ohio and especially Indiana, but they tend not to differentiate much further.  Michigan probably has a deeper potential voter base than all but Illinois in the region, but the state has a fairly problem which I think can cause folks to view it as more competitive than it actually is.  Actually, the problem is national, but it's acute in Michigan, and that is mid-term drop-off.  I hear the state has some of the biggest Dem drop-off in the nation.

                So, I realize people have to weigh the natural Democratic base of the state versus turnout; I just think they sometime nearly entirely discount the natural Democratic base of the state.  It's pretty clear than the Dem base is more mobilized than in 2010, but the question is just how much?  We don't need a 2006 Granholm re-election turnout to win.  In fact, we could get half of that turnout and push Schauer to a +5% win over Schauer.

                But, yeah, if the polls are legitimately tied, and say they remained that way up until November, Snyder would be in serious trouble.  I think Snyder has to be up by at least around 5% come November to eke out a win.  He's not going to have a 2010 electorate, so the only thing he can hope to do is keep the indies that voted for him, then, and seriously depress Democratic turnout.  I don't know how he goes about doing both.  If he can keep all his indies, he could eke out a crazy-thin margin for re-election.  I don't see, however, how he depresses Dem turnout, and definitely not at 2010 levels.  Schauer would really have to do something like flip-flop on marriage equality for Dems to stay home.

                Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Kodos.

                by MetroGnome on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 07:25:16 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Will Detroit voters come out in droves (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  USA629

                  to vote their outrage over the denial of water to penniless people and the overall fucking of Detroit by the state?

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 07:31:15 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  My guess is yes (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    but again, even that factor may be overridden by impeachment talk.  I really think that impeachment is going to be the overriding factor in the African-American community.  They are fed up of this racist Republican party doing everything it can to harm this President.

                    •  I'm beginning to think you're right (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      USA629, MetroGnome, MichaelNY

                      It's an indisputable fact that black turnout was really only mobilized in the post-2008 world of Obama. It's what led us to fairly surprising wins in NC and VA, despite these states going for Bush by large margins (13% in NC's case - yowza!), and a close loss in Georgia.

                      2010 has thus far been the only midterm in the post-Obama world. That's not enough to build the pattern that blacks inevitably turn out in much lower numbers than whites during midterms. After four years of Republican control of the House, with all its overt racism and bullshit, I'd be very very surprised if 2014 black turnout didn't exceed 2010 levels. I also would NOT be surprised in the least if black turnout hit white levels. If that happens, we can expect some seriously good surprises in certain senate races in AR, LA, NC, and GA.

                      •  This is just a hunch (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        but I actually think black turnout will substantially exceed white turnout in 2014.  If you think about it, white voters (except for hard core partisans) are largely disillusioned and despondent about politics in general.  Black voters will be angry and energized.  Which type of attitude tend to turn out more?

                        The one data point we do have is 1998.  Impeachment of Clinton drove black voters to polls in droves, which saved many Democrats in the South that year.  I remember for example, that the Georgia Governor's race was considered a tossup, but Roy Barnes won it by 8% due to strong Dem turnout.

                •  I don't think there's much he can do (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  to depress black turnout.  The threat of impeachment of Obama will turn them out.  That's the overriding national factor I was talking about.  
                  And I don't really think white Ds would stay home even if Snyder flip-flopped on marriage equality (Snyder may be personally for that position already).

                  Unfortunately massive minority turnout won't make too much of a difference in the state Senate or Congress.  But it could flip a whole bunch of statewide races and Supreme Court races as well.

                •  this is why when people talk about (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, MetroGnome

                  the potential of racial polarization increasing and whites drifting further away from us, to the extent we could lose Wisconsin, Minnesota, and ... Michigan, well, I could see Wisconsin, maybe even Minnesota, but do they realize Michigan is like 6-7 percent less white than both, and less than probably every Midwest state outside of, you said it, Illinois? I mean it could conceivably happen but it would have to be a pretty big shift.

                  We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

                  by James Allen on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 08:54:59 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

          •  I think the opposite (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Burke is running a pretty good campaign.

    •  MRG (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      MRG is even more Republican-friendly than Mitchell, I believe.  These are impressive results for a Republican pollster, and as I always say, regardless of the actual margin, this corroborates just about every other pollster showing the race having moved into a statistical tie.  They are all showing movement towards Schauer and Peters holding a fairly solid if even still narrow lead.

      Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Kodos.

      by MetroGnome on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 07:02:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The IDC must be panicking just now. (6+ / 0-)

    A good result in the primary of Washington for the people that dislike this kind of behavior in elected officials.

    Please, someone need to add the panicking image for the IDC ))

  •  So the result in WA SD35 if it holds the same (0+ / 0-)

    means that the Dem wins with Dem in GOP clothing Sheldon coming second... which means Sheldon wins the general election I take it ?

    Whereas is the GOP candidate beat Sheldon for second spot we might have a chance ?

    Acting Assistant Vice Chair of the DKE international cheer squad

    by CF of Aus on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 01:19:44 PM PDT

    •  We'll see (4+ / 0-)

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 01:22:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The GOP voters will prob come for Sheldon (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL, CF of Aus

      Hopefully Dem voters vote for the real Dem in the race it's just frustrating than Sheldon still can run as a Dem even though he's a practically a Republican it really should be illegal.

    •  We will see (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CF of Aus

      But, basically, my personal opinion is that "in present configuration" Sheldon wins IF he gets in top 2. He will surely get most Republican votes if paired with progressive Democrat, and enough Democratic votes  if paired with this particular very conservative (to the right of Sheldon) Republican. If Republican candidate would be more moderate - Democrats could support him with sole purpose of beating him next time, but as it is -- it's difficult. And it doesn't seems likely that Sheldon will NOT get in top 2.

      Very Independent minded. Moderate. Extremely cynical (main principle: don't easily believe anyone, but himself).

      by Ragmod on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 09:29:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Democrats Have a White Working Class Problem (0+ / 0-)
    Whenever elections approach, there is always a flurry of concern among Democrats regarding the white working class. Despite a steady and gradual decline in its size over the last several decades, this group remains a substantial percentage of the electorate; even relatively small decreases in its support for Democrats can mean defeat to Republican opponents. On a national level, if white working class support falls even 1 or 2 percent below the 36 percent that Obama received from them in 2012, the party's 2016 nominee will be in serious trouble.
    Link
    •  looks silly when you see how he's grouping states (12+ / 0-)

      We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

      by James Allen on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 02:11:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oh wow I see what you mean (9+ / 0-)

        I scrolled down a bit and saw the first image, with the USA divided into Northeast, Central, South, and West, and didn't get it.  Then I got to the bottom and saw this mess.

        What an entirely useless way to analyze blocks of states.  Oh no, Democrats only got 23% of the white working class vote in "Fast-growth Sunbelt", this dooms the party longterm!  That's a category that happens to include Texas alongside Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, and Florida.  And for some reason Virginia is dumped in the "Slow-growth Sunbelt" along with Mississippi and Alabama.  So our gains in Virginia and Colorado, the two states most symbolic of the changing Dem coalition in the age of Obama, are ignored because they get lumped in with Deep South states.

        It's also comical that South Carolina is considered "Slow growth" when it was them and not North Carolina that just gained a congressional district last time.  I'm sure West Virginia and Kentucky residents would also be mystified at being lumped in with the Great Plains states, but not with Missouri which is "Industrial heartland" along with Michigan.  What a total mess of a map.

        •  Virginia "slow growth"? (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Skaje, sulthernao, GoUBears

          Only if you ignore Northern VA and much of Hampton Roads and Metro Richmond--close to 2/3rds of the state.

          The state would be better classified as "Fast Growth Sunbelt"; even "The Coasts" would be more appropriate than "Slow Growth".

          38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 03:18:49 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, that's really odd (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sulthernao, MichaelNY, James Allen

        The conventional four-regions approach does group red and blue states in the same regions, but it really shouldn't be dismissed with such little thought. There's still a lot of common ground within the Census groupings culturally, particularly if the analysis focuses on white working class voters.

        The manner in which the authors divide the South is particularly egregious. Calling it the "Sunbelt" and dividing it by growth rate puts the emphasis on Northern migrants, and I don't think that's appropriate outside of certain parts of VA and FL.

        Also, this:

        Every political campaign manager knows that in the practical world of political campaigns, white working class people in places like Wichita, Yuma, or Sioux City are not strikingly more “pro-Democratic” than white working class people in Baton Rouge, Augusta, or Memphis
        Is this really true? White areas in those last three cities (and particularly if the whole urban area is counted) are quite Republican, and considerably more so than in Sioux City (Wichita and Memphis are admittedly close in this regard if the suburbs aren't counted). Yuma is really the exception that proves the rule due to the high degree of ethnic polarization in AZ.

        All in all, had they gone to the trouble to do a state-by-state analysis, I'm pretty sure the primarily Southern nature of this problem would reappear.

        Male, 23, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

        by fearlessfred14 on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 07:17:30 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I just read that article (8+ / 0-)

      This was rather bad analysis.

      1. This author gives zero justification other than his own biases for the argument that the Democrats are actually losing ground among non-Southern, non-rural working class whites.

      2. Assuming that a Democrat gets what Obama got among the other groups in 2012, the Ds would have to drop 10% in margin among working class whites to tie the popular vote.  In other words, Obama would have had to lose working class whites by a 67-31 margin instead of a 62-36 one to tie the Presidential election in 2012.

      3. The article largely ignores the gender and age gap among working class whites.  The former is a big big issue with Hillary Clinton as the nominee, given that she is rather popular with working class women.

      4. The article pretends that Obama's performance among working class whites is somehow a high, rather than a low.  Obama was about the worst kind of Democrat (black, seemingly foreign, very academic) as far as cultural appeal to working class whites.  The next Democratic candidate (particularly if it is Hillary) will be more appealing to this voting group.

    •  That's more a problem at the Cong. level (0+ / 0-)

      Obama has established a coalition of states that Dems can win.  Clinton ought to also be able to heal some of that loss from 2008-2012.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 03:16:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's less that Clinton IMO (0+ / 0-)

        will regain lost white working class voters than that she has a set of voters who are very fond of her.  As I've said before, there a non-trivial number of low-info white women who are down on most politicians, largely voted Romney over Obama, but just love Hillary Clinton.

        Also there is some economic nostalgia among the older white working class toward the Clintons; after GWB and Obama presiding over middling to bad economies, the Clinton years look pretty damn good.

    •  I made a better map in 5 minutes (12+ / 0-)

      Blue are the Dem states, Red are the GOP states, Yellow are the swing states where demographic change is moving them from GOP to Dem, Green are the swing states where demographic change is less pronounced, and the states politics' more constant.  (I fully welcome criticism on this map as well).

      I think you'd quickly find that Democrats do quite well among white working class voters in the green states.  Obama wouldn't have won Ohio twice if he had gotten blown out among them.  And Michigan has shifted considerably our way in recent years (almost colored it blue).  If Republicans think the "white working class vote" is about to deliver them these mostly midwestern states because that category of voters is incredibly Republican across the South, they're in for a disappointment.

      As for the yellow states, it's hardly a surprise that white working class voters are hostile to us when it's pretty much everyone but them that's turning the states our way.

      Analyze this map, and things don't look quite so dire for the Democratic Party.

      •  Good thing is.. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sulthernao

        you'll likely be able to add Georgia to the yellow column in 2016.

      •  I would put New Mexico as yellow too (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        benamery21, bythesea, sulthernao

        even though it is solid D.
        The Democrats really don't do any better among working class whites there than in Nevada or Colorado.  There are places in SE New Mexico that are just like West Texas.

        And Arizona and Georgia could be colored yellow, even though neither of those states are there yet.

      •  For me FL and NH can be green too (0+ / 0-)

        In the case of NH maybe a Kerry-Romney effect is hidding a faster improvement in the last years, but Florida would be green for me without doubt. The situation it is far of the fast improvement of the other yellow states.

        •  Florida is an interesting case (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Chachy

          because parts of the state are really trending against us, while others move towards us.  But I think in 10 years the Dem growth from Orlando to Miami will be unstoppable.

          New Hampshire could be green on this map, but I agree that the sequence of Kerry in 2004 (Dem overperformance in NH) followed by Romney in 2012 (GOP overperformance) has obscured the fact that the state is shifting our way and likely to join the Dem base.  I would be amazed if someone like Jeb Bush or Scott Walker could win it against a competent Democrat.  George Bush 2000 will likely be the last Republican ticket to win it for a long time (and that was largely because of Nader).

          •  Basically agree (0+ / 0-)

            I do not think we should draw Florida based in a future prevision. In the last years the state moved toward the Democratic Party but at the speed of the average (basically like the other green states). This effect of some parts of a state trending to one side and others to the other is repeated also in other green states, like PA.

  •  DRA issues (0+ / 0-)

    I'm having a rough time getting DRA to work on my new Macbook Pro.
    I downloaded Silverlight 5 but it seems like the DRA app crashes after a few minutes (with a plug-in failure).  I then uninstalled Silverlight 5 and installed some form of Silverlight 4 (as suggested on the DRA page), rebooted, and tried again.  But the same crash happened.
    I then tried to download Silverlight 4 on my old Macbook Pro, and I was able to get it to work there.  But my old Macbook Pro has 1/4 of the RAM as my new one, hence I want to use my new one if at all possible.

    Any ideas on how to fix this problem?

    •  Huh (0+ / 0-)

      I just got a new computer (a Dell), and DRA works excellently - even with California and Silverlight 5.

      I don't know much about Macs, but maybe you could see if it works on Windows.

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 05:37:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  IA-Sen: That NextGen ad is much better (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, ehstronghold, sulthernao

    I wouldn't be surprised if that first one had little money behind it and it was just to generate buzz.  I also recently realized there was a "Pulp Fiction" reference in it.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 03:14:31 PM PDT

    •  Little broadcast money, I mean (0+ / 0-)

      obviously they had to invest in production values.

      Correct me if I'm wrong about this postulate.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 03:17:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WI-SD-15 (0+ / 0-)

    Democratic State Rep. Fred Kessler of Milwaukee set up a PAC to run radio attack ads against Mike Sheridan, one of three Democrats running for the Wisconsin State Senate seat currently held by the retiring Tim Cullen. The only ad this group has run attacks Sheridan over flip-flopping on a payday loan regulation bill after he started dating a payday loan lobbyist.

    There are two other candidates running for the Democratic nomination (Janis Ringhand and Austin Scieszinski), and the Kessler ads didn't indicate a preference for either candidate.

  •  WI-GOV: Burke goes after Walker for his (9+ / 0-)

    250k jobs promise.

    link.

    Cillizza likes the ad because it uses Walker's own words. I agree.

  •  OK-Gov: Fallin hosting fundraiser with KKK (5+ / 0-)

    http://www.okdemocrats.org/...

    Just when I think I can't be more shocked, I am.

    18 year old gay Democrat living bright blue in deep red SC-04 (Gowdy). "You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one." - John Lennon

    by SCDem4 on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 05:56:42 PM PDT

  •  AK-sen (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, MichaelNY, HoosierD42

    technically begich's best option is known, it's joe miller.

    NH-01. First time living in NH, waiting for the candidates to start a courting.

    by DougTuttle on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 06:22:29 PM PDT

    •  I wish (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Seem to remember Miller at like 25-60 unfavorables in the last poll.  He would get stomped...hard to believe he actually defeated Lisa Murkowski in the Republican primary.

      With his campaign failing to gain traction, and Tom Tancredo and Ken Buck not proceeding to statewide elections in Colorado, my hopes for the 2010 losers have been dashed.

  •  WATN: Tony Blair (5+ / 0-)

    Tony Blair is cashing in on his service to the ruling class in some particularly mercenary and unsavory ways, and is still a liar.

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 06:44:42 PM PDT

  •  OR-SEN: Co-chair of Wehby's "small business" (5+ / 0-)

    coalition has resigned.

    Tim Moles spent 17 months in prison in 2002 after being convicted of domestic violence charges against his wife.

    The campaign was unaware of that, apparently.

    link.

  •  McDaniel's campaign paid people to lie (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Udestedt, bythesea, KingTag

    McDaniel staffer drawn into Fielder controversy (UPDATE)

    Stephen Fielder, the self-proclaimed pastor from Meridian, says a member of Chris McDaniel's campaign paid him $2,000 to give an interview in which he accused a Thad Cochran campaign staffer of asking him to pay people to vote for the GOP incumbent.

    The interview is part of the election challenge packet handed out Monday by McDaniel campaign attorney Mitch Tyner as part of the evidence they say illustrates an election "marred by irregularities and fraud."

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 06:50:42 PM PDT

  •  Bizarre Michigan race ratings (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, AndersonDelValle

    Just a pint of opinion, but those race ratings for Michigan are just all messed up.  MI-11 is decidedly more competitive than my MI-08.  Conservatively, I'd put both are Likely R, with MI-11 closer to the bottom end than the top.  Liberally, I'd give MI-11 a Lean R and MI-11 a Likely R.  Point is, MI-08 is not more competitive than MI-11.  

    Lastly, while Amash is a strong candidate for his district, he is not a shoo-in ever.  This is not a Safe R seat by any stretch; it was actually made less Republican the last time it was redistricted.  It's a very strong Likely R, but to rate it Safe R - particularly in just given the base numbers of the district and the fact that he's running against a millionaire, this time - is ridiculous.

    Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Kodos.

    by MetroGnome on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 06:52:08 PM PDT

  •  31 cases of voter fraud in last 14 years (6+ / 0-)

    A comprehensive investigation of voter impersonation finds 31 credible incidents out of one billion ballots cast

    Do you think that'll change any of the rhetoric from Republicans or its frequency? Nah.

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 06:53:37 PM PDT

  •  WI-7: The right's War on Tattoos (0+ / 0-)

    While I highly doubt that Kelly Westlund can defeat Sean Duffy, an unnamed supporter of Mike Krsiean, a far-right candidate who is running in the Democratic primary against Westlund, went on one of the left-wing blogs in Wisconsin and attacked Westlund over her appearance:

    Maybe the next picture if Westlund can show her tattoos. That’s a more accurate portrayal of how responsible she is…
    The anonymous commenter identified himself as a "lifelong Conservative Democrat" and made comments about wanting to "take back the party from the libs", which clearly indicates that this is a supporter of Mike Krsiean.

    Ladies and gentlemen, we have a War on Tattoos in this country.

    Attacks on female politicians over their appearance are absolutely disgusting, and it should have absolutely no place whatsoever in our country's political discourse, especially in a Democratic primary.

    Should Mike Krsiean win the WI-7 Democratic primary, that would be an absolute nightmare for the Democratic ticket in Wisconsin. It would probably get Scott Walker re-elected and result in Democratic state legislators from that region of Wisconsin, such as Stephen Smith and Mandy Wright, losing re-election.

  •  MI-Gov: Mark Schauer if pissed (10+ / 0-)

    You won't like him when he's angry...

    So, the Michigan Democratic Party held a unity breakfast at Wayne State University in Midtown Detroit this morning to regroup after the primaries.  The Dems interviewed stayed on their talking point, but Mark Schauer was more to the heart of things:

    Democrats are targeting about 995,000 registered voters who have a history of voting for Democratic candidates in the 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2012 elections, but did not show up to the polls in 2010 when Snyder sailed to victory over Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero.

    “It’s simple arithmetic: There are way more of us than there are of them,” said U.S. Rep. John Conyers, D-Detroit, who cruised to victory Tuesday night over the Rev. Horace Sheffield of Detroit.

    Schauer, a former one-term congressman from Battle Creek, had a more terse strategy for denying Snyder a second term by focusing on the incumbent’s actions in office, from imposing income taxes on most pensions to signing a right-to-work law.

    “There are more of us than them, and we’re pissed and we’re going to vote,” Schauer told Democratic activists and leaders gathered at Wayne State University.

    Really, this is neither here nor there, but entertain me for a moment.  This is such a modern Michigan way of looking at things. lol  It made me smile.  Everyone is pissed about everything, here, and have been for years.  

    But, really, he's right.  There was this false narrative that Snyder had a whole bunch of crossover voters, but analysis never really bore that out.  What happened is that each party's nominee won their base, but Snyder also snatched away the vast majority of indies who usually lean Dem because he played a moderate and no one questioned him about it.  Dems are swarming, this cycle, and leaving no rock unturned.  Even here in my home district, just hours after winning Eric Schertzing is already on the attack:

    “Washington is broken,” Schertzing said. “Mike Bishop is only going to give us more of the same.”

    Bishop, a former state Senate majority leader, won the GOP nomination. He easily defeated state Rep. Tom McMillin for the nomination.

    Schertzing and Bishop are vying to replace Mike Rogers, a Republican who has represented the 8th Congressional District since 2001.

    “Bishop’s record is one of serving special interests,” Schertzing declared. “I’m a breath of fresh air.”

    Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Kodos.

    by MetroGnome on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 07:47:24 PM PDT

    •  I really think some of our Michigan races could (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, LordMike

      be quite awesome. If things trend just a little bit more towards us, the Senate race is an easy win, Snyder and Shauer will be competitive, and MI-01, MI-04, MI-07, MI-08, and MI-11 will be quite competitive races.

      How happy I am seeing these two on the offensive already. If things move towards Schauer I really look forward to seeing the ramifications of that downballot.

      •  MI-04 (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, wwmiv, Jorge Harris

        Small correction, but MI-04 isn't competitive in even a good Dem year despite it's PVI.  MI-06 in the southwest corner of the state would be competitive before MI-04 is.  There simply isn't much of a elected Dem bench in this rural district, and the folks with money are decidedly conservative Republicans.  In fact, the bench is so thin that the current Some Dude doctor running on the Dem side had to be begged by a township supervisor who'd dropped out without any primary opposition.

        Still, you're right to say that there is the potential, at least, for Dems to have a better-than-decent year in Michigan.  It's actually national politics really putting downward pressure on what would otherwise be a great Dem year here at the state level.  If Obama finds some way to start moving his favorabilities in the other direction (or wrangles his way into being impeached. lol), we could really start seeing things breaking.  If things continue to be stuck in the national malaise, though, we're going to really have to work.  We could still pull out a whole bunch of wins, but they'd be narrow and we'd have to work harder than we'd like or we otherwise should have to.

         

        Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Kodos.

        by MetroGnome on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 11:05:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  MI-01 and MI-07 - yes (0+ / 0-)

        MI-04, 08, and 11 - unlikely. Everything is "IMHO", as usual.

        Very Independent minded. Moderate. Extremely cynical (main principle: don't easily believe anyone, but himself).

        by Ragmod on Thu Aug 07, 2014 at 12:10:04 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  OR-Sen: SUSA poll has Wehby up 52-33 (13+ / 0-)

    We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

    by James Allen on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 09:03:45 PM PDT

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