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Leading Off:
• AR-Sen: In one of the first big television ad buys during the stretch run of the 2014 election season, the DSCC is going large with a $3.6 million expenditure on behalf of Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor of Arkansas. The ad takes aim at GOP Rep. Tom Cotton, and it's pretty devastating:
The ad features Maka Parnell, a retired social worker who talks about the Arkansas Children's Hospital, which she says is "the only pediatric hospital in Arkansas." In just a few words, she heartbreakingly describes what it was like to work there:
I worked there for thirteen years. Some nights I'd stay in the intensive care unit. I needed to help the child to not be afraid.
Soft music plays as the camera lingers on a shot of a lone teddy bear perched on a bed. Parnell then castigates Cotton as "the only member of Congress from Arkansas who voted against" funding for the hospital. Concludes Parnell: "I don't know where his priorities are, but they're not with Arkansas children." The DSCC must figure it has a real winner here, given the amount of money they're putting behind this message.
Let's hope they're right, because a new PPP poll continues to show a very challenging race. PPP finds Cotton moving into a narrow 41-39 lead over Pryor, with Green Party candidate Mark Swaney taking 4 percent and Libertarian Nathan LaFrance 3; back in April, Pryor was up 43-42. Without the two third-party alternatives, Cotton's edge is all but unchanged at 43-41.
Either way, PPP's numbers are quite similar to the 44-42 spread Hendrix College saw last week. Hendrix's poll was light on African-American voters (just 8 percent of the sample), but PPP has them at a more realistic 13 percent; still, the different weights don't seem to have had much of an impact.
If this were earlier in the cycle, a poll showing an incumbent under 40 would have his opponents dancing on his political grave. But now we're just three months from Election Day, and Cotton's name recognition isn't much different from Pryor's: 20 percent have no opinion of the Republican, compared to 15 percent who say they can't judge the Democrat. We could be in for a very weird race where the undecideds simply have a hard time making up their mind, even though they supported Romney by a 52-25 margin.
And here's another interesting detail. PPP asked both about Pryor job approval and his favorability rating, something they don't typically do. Pryor's approval score is an abysmal 34-51, but his favorables are a better (if still rough) 38-48. That means some 7 percent of the electorate doesn't like the job Pryor's doing in Washington, but they still like him personally. That speaks to a level of personal likability that show Pryor still has some ability to create daylight between himself and the national party. Cotton's favorables, though, stand at an even 40-40, and Democrats will have to work hard to drive those down—which is exactly what the DSCC is trying to do with its new ad.
Senate:
• AK-Sen: Just yesterday, we were talking about various signs that indicated Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell might have a shot at stopping former state Natural Resources Director Dan Sullivan from winning the GOP nomination, and now along comes PPP with another poll pointing in that direction. PPP finds Miller's lead on Treadwell cut to 35-29, down from 40-26 in May. Joe Miller, meanwhile, has also jumped from 14 to 20; he'd be a longshot to win, but if the two leaders nuke each other, the Aug. 19 primary could get seriously nuts.
It's not immediately clear why Sullivan's now struggling, but Democrats have long been running ads attacking him as a carpetbagger who would undermine the ability of fishermen and hunters to enjoy their pursuits. These are the kinds of hits that can play both in a general election and a GOP primary, and it's possible that they've finally had an effect.
And now Sen. Mark Begich, who'd previously only focused on Sullivan, has expanded to include Treadwell in his latest ad. A series of women excoriate both Republicans as a narrator accuses them of wanting to block funding for Planned Parenthood; allow "employers to deny coverage for birth control"; and "ban abortion—for Mead Treadwell, even in cases of rape and incest." It's fascinating that this kind of progressive messaging is apparently effective in Alaska, but it also shows that Begich isn't taking any chances about which opponent he'll face (or perhaps he just wants to convey the impression he's as concerned about Treadwell as he is Sullivan).
In the general, election, though, Begich fares similarly against both candidates. He leads Sullivan 43-37 and Treadwell 42-37, while a quartet of minor candidates take around 7 to 8 percent. Back in May, Begich was up 42-37 on Sullivan and 41-33 on Treadwell, so Treadwell's standing has improved a bit in the general election as well. Democrats would still much prefer to face him, though, given how weak a fundraiser is. They may just get their chance.
• GA-Sen: According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the NRSC is set to go big with a $2.5 million ad buy on behalf of newly minted Republican nominee David Perdue. The spot (or spots) is not yet available, though the ad run will reportedly begin on Tuesday and last five weeks. Meanwhile, we now have the size of the buy for a recent ad from Ending Spending, attacking Michelle Nunn over her leaked strategy memo. The total comes to $198,000.
• KY-Sen: Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell's newest ad is a chutzpahdik piece of work. The spot is narrated by McConnell's wife, former Commerce Secretary Elaine Chao, who stiffly sneers: "Have you ever noticed how some liberals feel entitled to speak on behalf of all women—as if every woman agrees with Barack Obama?" A narrator then gets to the heart of the matter and makes some astonishing claims:
"Mitch McConnell co-sponsored the original Violence Against Women Act. He's always supported its purpose. Mitch voted for even stronger protections than Obama's agenda will allow."
This is all so tendentious it's amazing. McConnell did co-sponsor VAWA when it was first introduced in 1991, but as Sahil Kapur at TPM
explains, that bill never came up for a vote. He did
not sponsor the legislation in 1993, when it finally did advance to the floor—and then he voted against it!
More recently, when it came time to re-authorize the act last year, McConnell voted against doing so, even though it passed by a lopsided 78-22 margin. That means McConnell wanted to make sure he was on record as opposing the bill, probably because he feared a GOP primary challenge.
But now that it suits him to pretend like he's a champion of women, that's exactly what he's doing. Democrats have to hope Alison Lundergan Grimes can make sure Mitch doesn't get away with it.
• MT-Sen: Citing unnamed sources, Politico reports that the campaign of Democratic Sen. John Walsh is "engaged in internal deliberations" over whether Walsh should remain in the race, or drop out in favor of someone else in the wake of his plagiarism scandal. Monday is actually a key deadline, as Democrats can replace Walsh on the ballot if he quits by then. This is all extremely speculative, though, and it's not as though there's some magical alternative candidate waiting out there to rescue the Democratic Party ... unless you believe in the Schweitzer Fairy.
• NC-Sen: A new National Research poll for the conservative think tank Civitas, which regularly tests North Carolina's Senate race, finds Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan clinging to a narrow 41-39 lead on Republican Thom Tillis, with Libertarian Sean Haugh taking 7 percent. Last month, Hagan had a wider 42-36 edge, while Haugh was at 9. PPP has also shown both major-party candidates in a similar range, and HuffPo Pollster (before taking into account this new poll) had the average margin at 43-39, so Civitas is right in line.
Gubernatorial:
• AK-Gov: Republican Gov. Sean Parnell continues to put up anemic poll numbers, but with the field against him still split, he's likely to prevail in the end regardless. PPP's new Alaska poll finds Parnell taking just 37 percent, while Democrat Byron Mallot's at 22 and Republican-turned-independent Bill Walker is close behind at 20. Parnell's vote share is unchanged since May, but Walker's really snuck up on Mallot, who previously led him 27-17.
Last month, Walker released an internal poll to argue that he'd be better-positioned against Parnell in a two-way race, and indeed, his numbers showed him just a single point behind the incumbent while Mallot trailed by 21. PPP's numbers pretty much back Walker up: Paired with Parnell alone, he's again behind just 1, 41-40. Mallot, meanwhile, is much further back, at 48-37.
When Walker dropped his internal, Mallot insisted that he had no interest in dropping out, and merging tickets would be tricky since Alaska elects its lieutenant governors separately. Still, even though Parnell would remain favored even if Walker were his only opponent, this race is starting to look like a serious missed opportunity.
Further downballot, a measure to repeal oil and gas tax cuts pushed by Parnell is now splitting voters down the middle, with 42 percent taking each side. In May, repeal proponents led 45-34, but as you might imagine, the energy industry has considerable resources to bring to bear. This measure will appear on the August primary ballot, but two other notable efforts will go before voters in November. Right now, marijuana legalization is failing 49-44; last time, it was favored 48-45. Support for a minimum wage hike has also dropped, but at least it's still passing by a wide margin: 58-33, compared to 67-27 previously.
• AR-Gov: PPP also has numbers on Arkansas' gubernatorial race, which has been looking tougher and tougher for Democrat Mike Ross. He trails Republican Asa Hutchinson 43-38, though at least that's better than the 46-38 lead Hutchinson sported back in April. However, this is now the 10th poll in a row to show Hutchinson ahead, and his average margin, according to HuffPo Pollster, is 47-43. There may still be time for Ross to turn things around, but it's looking like Hutchinson has a real advantage.
However, there is one bit of good news further downballot: Voters support a measure to raise the state's minimum wage by a massive 63-29 margin. As Tom Jensen says, at least this gives Democrats a nice wedge issue they can corner Republicans with.
• CO-Gov: Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper continues to maintain a fundraising edge on his GOP opponent, ex-Rep. Bob Beauprez. Between June 26 and July 26, Hickenlooper raised $353,000 to $261,000 for Beauprez, and he has a $769,000 to $235,000 cash advantage, too. That disparity is actually bigger than it looks, because Hickenlooper has already paid for some $1.7 million worth of fall airtime while Beauprez hasn't spent anything on general election ads yet.
• IL-Gov: Republican Bruce Rauner seems to be having trouble getting his Cayman Islands story straight. After the Chicago Sun-Times revealed on Monday that Rauner, a billionaire investor, maintained part of his fortune in offshore accounts in the Caymans, the Chicago Tribune reported that back in June, Rauner told them the private equity firm he once ran and still invests with had no funds there.
Oops: GTCR, Rauner's former company, does indeed have money in the Caymans, a notorious tax haven. Caught red-handed, Rauner's now trying to claim it's all de minimis, because we're only talking about "just a couple of investments." I'm sure that those "just a couple of investments" are larger than what most people earn in a lifetime.
Rauner's also not helping himself by repeatedly swearing that "[t]hose particular setups had no impact on my personal tax rate—none whatsoever." That's created another problem for Rauner, because he's steadfastly refusing to release his tax returns, almost certainly because the Tribune previously reported that he's paid an effective tax rate of just 15 percent on his earnings. Seriously, bro, you can't claim that some exotic offshore investment vehicles didn't affect your bottom line and expect us to take you at your word.
Rauner needs to put up or shut up. Instead, he's doing neither—the worst strategy of all. God bless him.
• NY-Gov: While it's hard to imagine Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo losing re-election no matter how much corruption he's tainted with, his poll numbers may have taken a bit of a hit lately. A new Marist survey finds Cuomo's lead on Republican Rob Astorino contracting to "only" a 54-23 margin. A month earlier, Cuomo was up 59-24, but that's still a looong way to go for Astorino.
• PA-Gov: Republican pollster Magellan Strategies, in a new survey conducted on behalf of the conservative website Keystone Report, finds Democrat Tom Wolf beating Republican Gov. Tom Corbett 50-38, the closest margin Corbett's seen in some time. That's still lousy for the incumbent, but amusingly, Keystone's own headline claims that Corbett has closed to "within single digits." Math is hard, yo!
• WI-Gov: Money was never going to be GOP Gov. Scott Walker's problem, and indeed it's not. In the month of July, Walker outraised Democrat Mary Burke $1.2 million to $500,000 and has $7 million in the bank, compared to $1.7 million for Burke. But despite his heavy spending to date ($1.7 million in July alone), Walker is deadlocked in the polls.
House:
• IA-04: A pair of immigration activists confronted Republican Rep. Steve King at a fundraiser Monday night where Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul was featured, and King, you won't be surprised to learn, did not handle himself well. Paul instantly ran off, but King stuck around to chat. One of the activists, Erika Andiola, proceeded to hand King the documentation card she received under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program and offered him the chance to rip it up, since he wants to eliminate DACA altogether. Then it got worse:
Andiola then referenced King's infamous "calves the size of cantaloupes" remarks, in which he said some DREAMers, or undocumented immigrants brought to the U.S. as children, smuggle drugs across the border.
"Stop a minute," King said as he grabbed Andiola's wrist. "You're very good at English. You know what I'm saying."
"I was raised in the United States," Andiola said.
Brutal burn. There's video of the entire encounter
here. Steve King, once again proving his own worst enemy is Steve King.
• IL-13: Wonder what this is all about. Two teachers unions, the Illinois Education Association and the National Education Association, both endorsed Republican Rep. Rodney Davis on Tuesday. Teachers tend to overwhelmingly support Democrats these days, of course, and the Illinois Federation of Teachers had previously backed Democrat Ann Callis, who poses a legitimate threat to Davis. Davis is among the less crazy Republicans, though, so perhaps the IEA and NEA think they're betting on the stronger horse, but c'mon.
• NH-02: A Magellan Strategies internal for state Rep. Marilinda Garcia finds her leading ex-state Sen. Gary Lambert 36 to 13 in the Sept. 9 GOP primary, with a couple of other minor candidates taking low single digits. As James Pindell notes, though, the Club for Growth had been airing ads on Garcia's for a week before the poll went into the field, and no one else is on the air.
Ads & Independent Expenditures (Jeff Singer):
• AR-Sen: Senate Majority PAC goes after Republican Rep. Tom Cotton on Medicare.
• CO-Sen: Democratic Sen. Mark Udall hits Republican Rep. Cory Gardner on abortion and birth control.
• KY-Sen: The Kentucky Opportunity Coalition spends another $663,000 against Democratic nominee Alison Lundergan Grimes.
• NH-Sen: Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen highlights her work on a bipartisan bill to help veterans get local care.
• AZ-Gov: The 60 Plus Association ties Republican former Mesa Mayor Scott Smith to Obama, citing Smith's support for the Medicaid expansion. The group had previously targeted fellow primary contender Christine Smith.
• FL-Gov: The Republican Party of Florida has another Spanish language spot, this time praising Republican Gov. Rick Scott on tax breaks. The Miami Herald provides a translation and notes that Scott and his allies began airing Spanish-language ads in April, earlier than any major statewide campaign in recent memory. This is the sixth Spanish TV ad of the campaign from the GOP.
• IA-Gov: Republican Gov. Terry Branstad's spot stars Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds, who predictably says nice things about her running mate.
• IL-Gov: Two new spots from Republican Bruce Rauner (here and here). Both hit Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn on taxes.
• OH-Gov: The RGA is spending at least $1 million hitting Democratic nominee Ed FitzGerald. Republican Gov. John Kasich is spending $125,000 over two weeks on a minute-long spot where he touts the influence his parents had over him. Both Kasich's parents were killed by a drunk driver.
• SC-Gov: Republican Gov. Nikki Haley talks about her alliterative efforts to move people from welfare to work.
• HI-01: Democratic state Senate President Donna Mercado Kim talks about protecting the environment. The spot has perhaps the most menacing shot of a floating plastic bag ever.
• WI-06: Republican Assemblyman Duey Stroebel's wife explains how conservative Stroebel is (spoiler alert: very conservative). Primary rival state Sen. Glenn Grothman's narrator explains how conservative Grothman is (spoiler alert: very, very conservative).