The Kaiser Family Foundation has surveyed and determined that in major cities, insurance premiums in Obamacare plans will
increase by an average of 8.7 percent. That's an average from 15 states, and seven large cities. Further reporting from
The New York Times says that the most popular plans will see an increase of 8.4 percent, but if people are willing to switch plans, they could see just 1 percent increases.
Then they put that in historical context.
Even the average 8.4 percent increase for people who renew in the most popular plans falls within the range of historical increases in the individual market. It’s not on the low end, but it’s not in the category of runaway premium growth that many critics of the Affordable Care Act warned might be coming. […]
A Commonwealth Fund study conducted by the M.I.T. economist Jonathan Gruber this summer found that, before the Affordable Care Act passed, premiums were rising by higher rates: 9.9 percent in 2008, 10.8 percent in 2009 and 11.7 percent in 2010. Those are average rates. As in the current marketplaces, there was a lot of local variation in price increases.
The employer market has seen smaller recent increases, but that market has not seen an average 1 percent increase in recent memory. The Kaiser Family Foundation recently published its 16th annual survey of employer health plans. It found that 2014 was a year with a record-low premium increase for family plans: 3 percent. That number makes 8.4 percent look less rosy. But the 1 percent available to marketplace switchers looks good.
Bottom line: no rate shock as so many of the laws opponents have been warning since the damned thing passed. But there's more to take from this, reiterating the importance of being willing to switch plans and shopping for a new one. New insurers into the marketplace could mean much lower available premium rates. Those new low rates could mean that some people will be receiving lower subsidies—the tax credit is calculated based on the lowest priced "silver" plan available. What might have been that plan this year might not be the same next year, and if it changes, so do the subsidies. If having a premium increase of just 1 percent isn't incentive enough to shop around for a good deal, the possibility of losing subsidy money should be.