Jon "Bowzer" Bauman stumps for Florida Democrat Gwen Graham
With the fate of the U.S. Senate on the line and with a number of critical House seats and governorships coming down to the wire, both parties are concentrating hard to turn out their voters and make inroads with the other side's base. Each side is working especially hard to win over the critical senior citizen bloc. Voters over 65 tend to vote in disproportionate numbers in midterm elections, and they helped propel the Republicans to victory in 2010. For the moment, senior citizens are considerably more conservative than the general population, and as long as they vote Republican in huge numbers, they put Democrats at a big disadvantage in non-presidential election years.
Democrats are unlikely to outright win senior voters, but they know they need to make inroads. Team Blue is running ads hitting the GOP on cuts to vital programs, as well as accusing the Republicans of working to turn Medicare into a voucher program and privatize Social Security. Democratic candidates across the country have also turned to Jon Bauman, better known as "Bowzer" formerly of the band Sha Na Na, to act as a surrogate with older voters. Bauman, co-founder of the advocacy group Senior Votes Count, remains popular with many older voters and his celebrity status helps give him an opening to talk about issues that matter to seniors.
Republicans aren't taking this lying down, though. They've been running plenty of ads accusing the Democrats of trying to endanger Social Security and cut Medicare. GOP party strategists know that if they can run the table with senior voters again, they have the advantage in 2014. Both parties are spending plenty of time, money, and energy on older voters, and control of the Senate could very well be decided by which message gets through.
We're in the homestretch, and Democratic candidates in races across the country need our help. Please chip in $3 to help them win.
Defeat Mitch McConnell in just two hours. Sign up to make GOTV calls to Democrats.
Head below the fold for a look at why the senior vote matters and what both parties are doing to try and win older voters.
Age breakdown of House electorate, 1992-2012
It's no secret that older voters traditionally make up a much larger share of the electorate in midterm elections than they do in presidential elections. The above chart, created by the
Cook Political Report using exit poll data from
The New York Times and CNN, shows how different midterm years and presidential years look. In 2010 for instance, voters over the age of 45 were 64 percent of the electorate; two years later they were only 55 percent. CNN's exit polls tell a similar story if we just focus on seniors. In 2010, voters over 65 were
21 percent of the national electorate; in 2012 they were
just 16 percent.
Democratic Share of Two-Party House Vote by Age, 1992-2012
In recent cycles, older voters have tended to be a relatively conservative group. The above chart, also from the
Cook Political Report, shows how voters over 65 have been gradually voting more Republican than the rest of the population. Even when Democratic House candidates were winning senior voters in 2006 and 2008, they were still doing notably better among the rest of the electorate. Both charts help explain why 2010 was such a nightmare for Democratic House candidates. While Team Blue was winning 55 percent among voters under 65, they only took 39 percent of the senior vote. With older voters making up such a large share of the electorate, this was fatal to Democratic chances.
It's hard to know how future elections will look. But in 2014, Democratic candidates have to win with an electorate that's older and more conservative than the one they faced in 2012. Every age group is important, but if Democrats are to win, they need to find a way to do much better among seniors than they have in recent cycles. Republicans also recognize that seniors helped carry them to victory in 2010 and can do it again, and they aren't taking them for granted.
Both parties are working hard to appeal to older voters. In campaign television ads, each side is emphasizing Medicare and Social Security and how it affects seniors. Each side's basic argument is pretty similar and can be boiled down to "My opponent is a threat to Social Security and Medicare, but I want to protect them."
For the Republicans, this has meant plenty of spots arguing that Obamacare puts seniors in danger. The above spot from the U.S. Senate race in Kansas is a good example. Republican Sen. Pat Roberts features a woman named Kay Rutherford, who identifies herself as 67. Rutherford stresses how important Medicare is for her, and accuses Obamacare of cutting billions from seniors. She then ties independent Greg Orman (the Democratic nominee dropped out of this race to help Orman) to Obamacare, and argues Orman would be just another vote for Obama. The implication is clear: If seniors want to protect Medicare from further cuts, they need to vote Republican.
Democrats have been stressing a similar angle. In this ad from the labor organization AFSCME in the Iowa U.S. Senate race, several senior citizens express their skepticism for Republican Joni Ernst. The narrator argues that Ernst wants to privatize Social Security and cut Medicare, "cost[ing] seniors $6,400 more a year, all to pay for more tax breaks for big corporations."
This spot from the race in New York's 1st Congressional District makes a similar appeal. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee argues that Republican Lee Zeldin said he wants to privatize Social Security. It then features a trio of senior citizens saying they've worked for decades, and Social Security means everything to them.
Candidates from both parties are well aware that these types of attacks could sink them and that they need to convincingly push back. The above ad from the Colorado Senate race features Republican Cory Gardner appearing with his grandmother. Gardner declares he'll protect Social Security and Medicare for her generation while making sure the program remains solvent for future generations.
Not every candidate features an older family member vouching for them, but they still use their family's story to argue how important these programs are to them. California Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz talks about how his grandmother taught him to respect the older generation; Ruiz then describes his personal experiences taking care of seniors as a physician, and argues that it taught him the importance of protecting Social Security and Medicare.
Democrats are also turning to a not so-secret weapon this year: Jon “Bowzer” Bauman and Senior Votes Count.
Bauman has been a staple in Democratic special election campaigns since 2011. This year he and Senior Votes Count have been advocating for Democratic candidates across the country, and Bauman has stumped for 35 different campaign so far. The group is not specifically a Democratic organization. In a September phone interview, Bauman told me that the group does send its questionnaire out to candidates from both parties, and would be open to backing a Republican who was better on senior issues than the Democratic opponent, though he emphasized, "Senior Votes Count has yet to be able to find one. So don't hold your breath." He added that SVC does not send questionnaires to incumbents who have a proven track record on senior issues one way or the other, since "actions speak way louder than words."
Bauman says no Republican who has received the questionnaire has bothered to return it, so when it comes to candidates who are working to stop Social Security from being privatized and prevent Medicare from being turned into a voucher system, there is only one real party for Senior Votes Count to choose from this year. Bowzer also emphasized that local issues that matter to seniors, including homestead tax credits and property taxes, and can be quite significant, particularly in gubernatorial races. Since seniors are more likely to be homeowners, these issues very much matter to them, even when they don't receive as much attention in campaign ads as Social Security and Medicare.
Bauman has been campaigning hard on behalf of Democrats among seniors. He's arguing that despite Republican attempts to demonize Obamacare, it won't work this time. Now that the program is actually taking effect, seniors can evaluate how it works for them, and that by and large it has been working better than they expected. While last year's rollout was problematic, things have since stabilized. The massive cuts to Medicare the GOP has been warning about never occurred, and voters are realizing that. The Republicans have responded by continuing to rant about Obamacare and falsely accusing Democrats of trying to help undocumented immigrants get on Social Security.
Senior Votes Count’s events have been drawing good numbers, and have been generating headlines for Democratic candidates. "Bowzer" knows his celebrity status among older voters is a major help, although he emphasizes these events are about substance even if he throws a bit of music in. It's a good bet that seniors will still back the GOP in the next election, but if groups like Senior Votes Count can move the needle even a few points, it can make all the difference in plenty of tight races.
There are certainly plenty of tight races to choose from. Democrats are continuing to work to expand the electorate and appeal to left-leaning younger voters who didn't show up in 2010. However, it's clear that senior voters remain a coveted demographic. If Team Blue wants to hold the Senate, it can't afford to concede older voters. Both parties are aiming much of their messaging at seniors: The 2014 election may come down to whether Democrats can successfully argue that the Republicans aren't looking out for seniors, or if the Republicans' anti-Obamacare campaign works again.
We're in the homestretch, and Democratic candidates in races across the country need our help. Please chip in $3 to help them win.
Defeat Mitch McConnell in just two hours. Sign up to make GOTV calls to Democrats.
Elections around the country are coming down to the wire. Please give today.