North Carolina Republican Gov. Pat McCrory
Leading Off:
• NC-Gov: Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper has not officially announced whether or not he'll run against Republican Gov. Pat McCrory in 2016, but he's sure sounding like a candidate.
On Wednesday, Cooper sent an email to supporters declaring that he will "take on the challenges that North Carolina will face and make sure we live in a place that values a quality education, clean water and air, and good paying jobs." Cooper previously told reporters that he was "making plans" even though it was "too early to make a formal announcement."
Cooper has served as state attorney general since 2001 and he's won re-election with ease; in 2012 he did not even draw an opponent. Democrats worked hard to recruit him to run against Republican Sen. Richard Burr in 2010 but Cooper declined, which in retrospect was definitely the smart move. He's been a lot more interested in running against McCrory though, and early polls have hinted at a competitive race.
Cooper may be hoping to clear the Democratic field early. Back in September of 2013, former Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker began openly contemplating running. Meeker hasn't made much noise lately but if he ran he could give Cooper trouble in the primary. It's also not out of the realm of possibility that U.S. Secretary of Transportation and former Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx will run, especially since he doesn't seem interested in challenging Burr.
McCrory will not be an easy target to unseat. PPP recently pegged his approval rating at 40-42, though that was with the 2014 electorate, and his policies have generated plenty of backlash. However, McCrory has tons of wealthy allies who will spend whatever they need to keep him in office. As the 2014 Senate race demonstrated, North Carolina is a very polarized state, and both sides should prepare for a long, expensive, and close contest.
Late Calls: Since Thursday night, a number of races have been called:
• VA-Sen: On Friday, Republican Ed Gillespie
conceded to Democratic Sen. Mark Warner in the shockingly close Virginia U.S. Senate race. Given how close Gillespie came to upsetting the popular Warner, it's a good bet we'll hear from him again. Gillespie is
denying any interest in the 2017 gubernatorial race, but of course it's absurdly early.
• CA-09, 52: We also have calls for Democratic incumbents Jerry McNerney and Scott Peters. McNerney's 52-48 victory over unheralded Republican Tony Amador is definitely an unpleasant surprise for him. By contrast, Peters' 51-49 margin over Republican Carl DeMaio is a big relief for Team Blue. This San Diego seat went for Obama only 52-46 and was a top GOP target all cycle, and DeMaio was one of his party's most hyped recruits. In the final weeks of the campaign a former aide accused DeMaio of sexual harassment; nothing was ever proven, but it's very possible that the story cost DeMaio a win.
• CA-17, WA-04: Two intra-party races have also been settled. In California's 17th District, Rep. Mike Honda has defeated fellow Democrat Ro Khanna 52-48, and Khanna has conceded. Khanna is young and ambitious and we almost certainly haven't heard the last of him. Honda himself doesn't sound like he's going anywhere though, declaring in his victory speech that this will not be his last term. Finally, in Washington's 4th District, Dan Newhouse has defeated fellow Republican Clint Didier 51-49. Both candidates are quite conservative but Newhouse hails from the establishment wing of the party, while Didier is more tea party flavored. This is Didier's third defeat in as many cycles.
Uncalled Races:
Several races remain uncalled as of Sunday evening. We recently ran through them here and we have updates below for any contests where we have new details. You can check who has won each key race at our race tracker here, and you can also keep an eye on our continuously updated list of uncalled races. (We're relying on CNN's election results page for calls.)
• AK-Sen: The count hasn't changed since Election Night, with Republican Dan Sullivan holding an 8,149 vote lead over Democratic incumbent Mark Begich. However, we recently learned that
40,000 ballots will be counted on Tuesday, which will give us a better idea of where things stand and what is left. It's unclear how many total votes need to be counted, but assuming it's 50,000
like the Alaska Dispatch and APRN Alaska News estimate, Begich would need to win them 56-40. If there are fewer ballots, he'll need to do even better.
This is pretty tough math for Democrats. In 2008 Begich won the late ballots by 7 points, about a third of what he needs now. Begich can win if these remaining ballots disproportionately come from rural Alaska, a heavily Native American area where Begich ran the table this year. The problem is, it's far from clear that there are enough rural ballots left: The Dispatch and APRN project that more of the uncounted votes come from Sullivan areas. At this point there is a lot of uncertainty and we'll need to wait until Tuesday for our answers, but Begich needs everything go right for him to win.
• AK-Gov: Since Tuesday, independent Bill Walker has held a 3,165 vote lead over Republican Gov. Sean Parnell. If there are 50,000 ballots out like the Dispatch and APRN project, Parnell needs to win them 51-45. There seem to be almost as many Walker areas out as Parnell strongholds, but again, there is a lot of uncertainty here.
• VT-Gov: Democratic Gov. Peter Shumlin appears to have won a shockingly tight race against Republican Scott Milne. Since no one took a majority of the vote, the legislature will pick the next governor. Milne has not conceded but as long as Shumlin holds a plurality of the vote it's hard to see the governor losing.
The legislature has always picked the top-vote getter since 1853, and the Democratic Party holds clear majorities in both chambers of Vermont's legislature. It's incredibly difficult to see enough Democratic legislators voting for Milne. Indeed, it's much more likely that more Republicans pick Shumlin: Republican leaders are making no effort to whip their members for Milne. In 2010 when this race also needed to be decided by the legislature, plenty of Republicans voted for Shumlin since he was the top vote-getter. Unless there's been a major tabulation error and Milne somehow pulls ahead of Shumlin, it's clear the governor will win another term, if only by the skin of his teeth.
• AZ-02: For the moment, Republican Martha McSally holds a 341-vote lead over Democratic Rep. Ron Barber. The good news for Barber is that all of conservative Cochise County is finished reporting, and only Pima County provisional ballots are left. It's unclear how many provisionals are in the district and how many will be accepted. Pima is expected to count the remaining ballots on Monday, so hopefully we'll have our answers soon. Don't expect things to wrap up quickly though: McSally's camp is preparing to challenge Pima provisional ballots.
• CA-07: For the last few days, Republican Doug Ose has held a 2,183-vote lead over Democratic incumbent Ami Bera, with about 43,000 left to count. Bera needs to win these 52.5-47.5 to pull ahead. Counting is scheduled to resume on Monday at 7:00 PM Eastern.
• CA-16: As of Sunday, Republican Johnny Tacherra holds a 741-vote lead over Democratic Rep. Jim Costa in a race that was supposed to be safely Democratic. A number of late ballots have been counted since Friday but they all seem to have canceled each other out, since the margin has barely moved. In the 16th District there are an estimated 1,500 ballots left from Merced, 4,000 from Fresno, and an unknown number from Madera: Costa won Fresno but lost the other two. A Fresno update is expected on Wednesday. Normally California's late ballots break Democratic but so far that hasn't happened here, and it's anyone's guess how this will turn out.
• CA-26: On Friday, late ballots boosted Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley's lead from 530 votes to 1,028. There are reportedly 40,000 ballots left that need to be counted: Republican Jeff Gorell would need to win them by about 3 points to prevail. As long as late ballots continue to break Democratic like they usually do in the Golden State (and have so far in this race), Brownley should keep her lead.
• NY-25: There have been no new developments here in recent days. Rep. Louise Slaughter still has a 651 vote lead over Republican Mark Assini in this shockingly tight race, and she has declared victory. Assini has not conceded but the math doesn't look great for him. There are reportedly only 1,200 to 1,300 absentees left and an unknown number of affidavit ballots. The count is expected to be done on Wednesday.
Senate:
• AZ-Sen: Good news... for John McCain! On Friday the longtime Republican senator publicly declared that he's "leaning toward" seeking re-election. McCain won't have a clear path to a sixth term if he does run though. Rep. David Schweikert is reportedly considering a primary challenge, and there are plenty of well-funded groups on the right that would support him. A March PPP survey found McCain's statewide approval in the dumps at 30-54; while Democrats have never given McCain a serious re-election challenge, those numbers are too enticing to ignore.
Gubernatorial:
• DE-Gov: Democratic Gov. Jack Markell will be termed out in 2016, and the race to succeed him is already taking shape. On Thursday, Republican state Sen. Colin Bonini announced he was running. Bonini represents a district south of Dover that went for Romney by about 2 points. He lost the treasurer's race by 2 points in 2010, so he does have experience as a statewide contender.
On the Democratic side, outgoing Attorney General Beau Biden announced in April that he was running. However, since then he has had health problems, and there's a real possibility he won't enter the race after all. The Wilmington News Journal names a few other potential Democratic candidates. Rep. John Carney ran for the job in 2008 and only narrowly lost to Markell in the primary, and he may be interested in trying again. New Castle County Executive Tom Gordon is also a possible contender. Carney represents the entire state in the House and more than half the state lives in New Castle County, so neither man would struggle for name recognition.
In the red corner the options are more limited besides Bonini. Treasurer-elect Ken Simpler won by 10 points on Tuesday and many Republicans would like to see him run, but he doesn't appear interested right now. Delaware is a solidly blue state and the last time Republicans won was 1988, when Mike Castle was re-elected in a landslide. However, as we saw on Tuesday in Illinois, Maryland, and Massachusetts, Republicans can definitely pick up blue state governor's mansions if the conditions are right.
House:
• House: Come the 114th Congress, just five Democrats are guaranteed to represent House districts carried by Mitt Romney, whose victory margin is in parentheses in the list below:
MN-07: Collin Peterson (54-44)
NE-02: Brad Ashford (53-46)
FL-02: Gwen Graham (52-47)
FL-18: Patrick Murphy (52-48)
AZ-01: Ann Kirkpatrick (50-48)
One more Democrat, Ron Barber (AZ-02; 50-48 Romney), currently trails but could wind up prevailing once late votes are tallied (see our
Uncalled Races item for more). Remarkably, two of the people on this list won on Tuesday night: Ashford and Graham, who beat a pair of incredibly flawed GOP incumbents in Lee Terry and Steve Southerland, respectively. How bad a Republican do you have to be to have lost in 2014? Pretty damn bad.
Other Races:
• CO State Senate: On Saturday it became clear that the GOP secured a majority, giving them control of the chamber for the first time in 10 years. Democrats will keep the state House and the governorship. The GOP will only control the Senate by one seat and Democrats will be trying to flip the chamber again in 2016. Team Blue narrowly lost SD-19 this time and they'll almost certainly be making another run at it next cycle when it is up for a full four-year term: The pickings get a lot more slim afterwards though.
There is one small piece of good news for Senate Democrats: The two Republicans who ousted incumbents in a pair of NRA-backed recall elections both lost their bids for a full term. In the 3rd District, Democrat Leroy Garcia beat Republican George Rivera 55-45, and in the 11th, Democrat Michael Merrifield defeated Republican Bernie Herpin by a similar 52-42 margin.
Both of these seats were quite blue on the presidential level, but during the low-turnout recalls, Democrats weren't able to muster their supporters, while Republicans were fueled with furor over new gun safety laws the legislature had recently passed. With more normal turnout, these seats reverted to form, in spite of the GOP wave.
Grab Bag:
• Data Viz: One good thing about the aftermath of an election is that there's always lots of cool maps and other shiny interactive objects to look at. One particularly interesting one is Huffington Post Pollster's chart on the results in all the U.S. House races; not only do they have the percentages on all the races, but two very interesting graphics that you can mouse over.
One arranges all races from top to bottom in terms of D-vs.-R margin (one thing that lets you see is just how dominant Seth Moulton's MA-06 victory was, where he outpaced Dems like Nita Lowey, Alan Grayson, and Emanuel Cleaver). The other is a scatterplot that plots 2012 House results against 2014 results (where the biggest outliers on the pro-Dem side are WV-02, where Nick Casey almost won it, and FL-18, where Patrick Murphy crushed it after narrowly picking up the seat in 2012).
The New York Times shows what you can do when you have a big interactive graphics budget and a big staff that can vacuum up elections data quickly: they have amazing-looking zoomable red/blue maps that go all the way down to the precinct level on the Senate races in Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Arkansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, and Iowa. These are interesting not just for purposes of understanding the 2014 races, but also the general political lay-of-the-land in these states in a way that really only Dave's Redistricting App let you explore before.
And finally, WAMU has a similar precinct-level map of one of the night's interesting but overlooked races, the Washington D.C. mayor's race and marijuana legalization. The map shows not only how mayoral politics is correlated with the city's race and class divides, but, by keeping that correlation in mind, also where regentrification is on the march; the city's affluent west keeps advancing into the east, especially spilling east from Capitol Hill toward the Eastern Market. But on the other hand, pot legalization seemed to be correlated more with age than with race and class, at its weakest in some of the city's most impoverished southeastern areas and at its strongest around Adams Morgan and Mt. Pleasant.
• DCCC, DSCC: After one successful cycle (2012) and one unsuccessful cycle (2014), Rep. Steve Israel is stepping down as chair of the DCCC, even though (he claims) Nancy Pelosi asked him to stay on. Top contenders to replace him are Jim Himes (CT-04), Donna Edwards (MD-06), and Jared Polis (CO-02). Other less-likely names include Joe Crowley (NY-14), Lois Frankel (FL-22), and Joseph P. Kennedy III (MA-04).
Meanwhile, Sen. Michael Bennet is coming off a brutal election year helming the DSCC, but he's unlikely to stay on at the job. That's not because of how Democrats performed, though: Bennet seems to be avoiding much of the blame while most fingers, rightly or wrongly, instead get pointed at Barack Obama. Rather, Bennet's up for re-election this cycle, so odds are, the chairmanship will fall to someone else.
Interestingly, Montana Sen. Jon Tester is reportedly considering the job, as is Delaware Sen. Chris Coons. Other possibilities include Cory Booker, Sheldon Whitehouse, and Amy Klobuchar. Three senators have already said no, though: Kirsten Gillibrand, Claire McCaskill, and Elizabeth Warren.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, with additional contributions from Jeff Singer, David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty