Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill
Leading Off:
• MO-Gov: Despite Democrats losing control of the Senate, no one challenged Harry Reid for the position of minority leader, though at least half a dozen mostly red-state senators voted against Reid in Thursday's secret-ballot election. That kind of thing is mostly stunty, and community member Taget explains why it's unlikely to even help any of the dissenters. (Bottom line: You're already on record as previously supporting Reid for majority leader.)
But perhaps the one interesting "nay" came from Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill, who simultaneously refused to rule out a bid for governor. It's not entirely a surprise: Over the summer, a local columnist floated her name (perhaps at the suggestion of McCaskill loyalists). Now, though, that she's publicly set herself on the outs with Reid and Senate leadership, a run for governor might seem more appealing, especially since it seems like that's the job she always wanted in the first place.
Among other things, McCaskill would have the benefit of presidential-year turnout, as Missouri is one of just a dozen states to hold gubernatorial elections in years divisible by four. The seat will also be open, as Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon faces term limits. And if she's successful, she'd avoid what would be an exceptionally difficult Senate re-election bid in 2018.
However, there's one big obstacle: Attorney General Chris Koster. Koster's long had his eye on the top job (as the old joke goes, "AG" stands for "aspiring governor"), and right now, he looks like the consensus Democratic candidate. While the Republican field is likely to turn into a toxic shitshow and yield a damaged nominee, a Koster-McCaskill primary would be incredibly expensive and could undo the advantages that a clear path to the nomination might otherwise yield for Team Blue.
But there's a deal to be had here, and Koster has reasons for wanting to make it. If he defers to McCaskill and McCaskill wins, then she (or Nixon, depending on the exact timing) can appoint Koster to fill out the last two years of McCaskill's Senate term. Koster wouldn't have an easy time of winning a full six-year term in 2018 either, but with a law-and-order profile and without the taint of DC on him, he'd have a better shot than the current incumbent.
What's more, Koster, who got his start as a Republican in the Missouri state Senate, is a wheeler-dealer who would be well-suited to the U.S. Senate. (Koster switched to the Democrats before running for attorney general.) McCaskill, meanwhile, is more a creature of state politics: She initially served as state auditor, then unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2004. Chuck Schumer courted her assiduously to run for Senate in 2006, and she won in a nail-biter, but the governorship is probably still her first choice—and someone with her heart set on another four years in the Senate wouldn't have just flipped the bird to Reid.
There's something else at play, too. Koster is currently the subject of a troubling New York Times investigation into the questionable influence that lobbying firms have been exerting on state attorneys general, and things are going to get worse before they get better. If he can put off his next appearance before voters for four years rather than two, however, that'll give him more distance from this ugliness. Studies show that the impact of scandals fade with time, and Koster would be wise to take advantage of this.
One downside is that right now, as someone seeking state office, Koster can raise virtually limitless sums of money with ease. If he instead runs for Senate, he'd be limited to begging for $2,600 checks, undoubtedly an unappealing prospect. However, Koster would almost certainly be able to count on super PACs rallying to his side in a big way, so the switch from state to federal financing wouldn't be as painful as he might imagine.
Just a few weeks ago, Koster looked like the strongest Democrat to hold the governor's mansion in 2016. But you should never underestimate the power of the Times to undermine a legitimate contender—just consider how badly Shelley Berkley got hurt in the 2012 Nevada Senate race thanks to some fairly bogus accusations that she helped saved a transplant clinic in order to benefit her husband. If Koster wants to hedge his bets, he should seriously consider holding off and locking in a switcheroo.
Late Calls:
• AK-Gov: On Friday 26,300 more ballots were counted, and independent Bill Walker netted over 600 votes. Walker's lead over Republican Gov. Sean Parnell is now 4,634 votes, and with
only 9,800 ballots left to count, it's clear he has won. Multiple media outlets have called the race for Walker and Parnell
conceded on Saturday. Walker's victory will make him the only independent governor of any state.
Uncalled Races: At this point there are only four contests that remain uncalled: VT-Gov, AZ-02, CA-07, and CA-16.
Since no candidate took a majority in Vermont, that race will not be officially decided until January. Under state law, the legislature is required to choose the winner, but there's no real doubt that the Democratic state House and Senate will pick Democratic Gov. Peter Shumlin. In Arizona's 2nd District Republican Martha McSally leads Democratic Rep. Ron Barber by 161 votes, with all the ballots counted. A mandatory recount will take place in December.
Votes are still being counted in both California contests, and it looks like we'll know the winners soon enough. You can check out our uncalled races tracker for both Golden State races to keep track of where things currently stand.
• CA-07: On Friday more ballots were counted, but the numbers barely moved. Democratic Rep. Ami Bera maintains a 697-vote lead over Republican Doug Ose, about the same as the 711-vote edge he grabbed on Wednesday. There are reportedly 11,000 ballots left in all of Sacramento County, and we estimate that 6,500 of them are in the 7th District. For Ose to regain the lead, he'll need to win the remaining pile by a little more than 10 points, a very tough task. Both parties spent heavily to win this very swingy seat, but it looks like Bera has survived.
• CA-16: On Friday Democratic Rep. Jim Costa's lead over Some Dude Republican Johnny Tacherra ballooned from 86 votes to a much more secure 700 votes. There are about 4,222 ballots left district-wide, and Tacherra would need to win them by about 17 points to retake the lead. About half of the remaining ballots are in Costa-friendly Fresno County, so this looks very unlikely. Costa's apparent victory is shockingly weak, but it's a win all the same.
Senate:
• IL-Sen: If any senator was high on the potential retirement list, it was Illinois Republican Mark Kirk, who is not only, well, a Republican in Illinois, but who also suffered a debilitating stroke in 2012. However, Kirk is not going anywhere: On Thursday, he declared, "No frickin' way am I retiring." Credit to the guy for being absolutely clear about his intentions!
But that doesn't mean Kirk won't face a competitive race. Even though he's done a decent job presenting himself as a moderate (despite some extremely conservative votes), Kirk will be a top Democratic target in 2016, and one possible recruit is Rep. Tammy Duckworth. "But wait a minute, DavidNYC," you might say. "Didn't you just write in the previous Digest that Duckworth wasn't interested?"
Well, we did, but we jumped the gun—and it's a good lesson in why you should always wait to hear actual quotes from actual candidates before drawing conclusions about their intentions. (It's a rule we've always tried to follow, but I guess we got too excited to usher in the start of the new campaign season!)
Anyhow, we still don't have direct word from Duckworth, but a "member of her team" claims that Duckworth is "interested, open and curious" about a possible bid, though apparently she wants to wait until after the birth if her daughter (expected soon) before deciding. That's at least a little closer to the horse's mouth than columnist Lynn Sweet's completely unsourced claim that Rep. Bill Foster is "very, very interested," but who knows? We won't for sure until the candidates themselves speak.
• NH-Sen: In addition to talking extensively about potential Democratic House hopefuls in New Hampshire (see our item below), columnist John DiStaso offers a huge array of possible candidates who could take on freshman Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte. Newly re-elected Gov. Maggie Hassan is at the top of the list, and Rep. Annie Kuster could be an attractive candidate, too. But if they're not keen, the list of alternatives is very long:
Former state securities bureau chief Mark Connolly; Executive Councilors Colin Van Ostern and Chris Pappas; state Sens. Donna Soucy and Dan Feltes; former state Sen. Jackie Cilley (who unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nomination for governor in 2012); Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen (daughter of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen); and Jeanne Shaheen's campaign manager, Mike Vlacich.
One more dark horse would be ex-Gov. John Lynch, who preceded Hassan and served a record four two-year terms, but he's never seemed interested in federal office.
• NV-Sen: Open seat fans will be bummed, but Harry Reid's gonna be happy: GOP Rep. Joe Heck, who just won a resounding 61-36 victory Tuesday night despite holding down a 50-49 Obama district, says he won't run for Senate in 2016. (One reason he cited is quite interesting: He was recently promoted to the rank of brigadier general in the U.S. Army Reserve!) However, Republicans are still working on several other possibilities, including Gov. Brian Sandoval, incoming Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchinson, former Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, and Rep. Mark Amodei.
• OH-Sen: Democrats would love to make a play for Ohio's Class 3 Senate seat in 2016, but they've got two problems: a very weak bench and a very strong GOP incumbent in Rob Portman. However, Portman sounds like he's seriously considering a presidential bid, and if that takes off, then his Senate seat could become open. (Of course, if Portman is actually at the top of the ticket, winning Ohio in general would become harder for Team Blue, but we're getting ahead of ourselves.)
But even with an open seat, finding a viable Democratic candidate won't be easy. Perhaps the best bet would be former state Attorney General Richard Cordray, who is now head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the agency first proposed by Elizabeth Warren. Cordray's term as bureau chief runs through 2018, so Democrats would risk leaving the agency—which Republican loathe—leaderless if he had to step down early. But given how few options there are, it'd be a risk worth considering, especially since Cordray could articulate a strong populist message that would connect with the economic concerns of ordinary Americans.
House:
• House: The immediate aftermath of any election is always an opportunity for folks who fell short to start talking up rematches. We discussed a few names previously, and already, we have a few more, as well as some brand new options:
• CA-31: Republican Paul Chabot narrowly lost to Democrat Pete Aguilar 51-49, so on one level, you can understand why he's already saying
he'll run again. However, this is a blue district (
57-41 Obama), 2016 will bring greater turnout, and Aguilar will have the advantage of incumbency—while Chabot has no way to know if there will be a repeat of the same GOP wave that brought him so close this year. Unless Aguilar seriously stumbles, this won't be an especially compelling contest.
• NH-01: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter also lost a close race, 52-48, but in a swing district, and John DiStaso suggests she could make a third comeback attempt against Republican Frank Guinta in two years' time. If not Shea-Porter, DiStaso goes hard on the Great Mentioner front, suggesting outgoing state House Speaker Terie Norelli, Manchester Alderman Garth Corriveau, former New Hampshire Medical Society President Travis Harker, former Portsmouth Mayor Tom Ferrini, Executive Councilor Chris Pappas, state Sen. Donna Soucy, businessman Shawn O'Connor, and Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen (daughter of Jeanne).
• NH-02: Rep. Annie Kuster, fresh off winning a second term by a healthy 10-point spread, were to run for Senate instead next cycle, a whole host of other potential Democrats awaits to take her place: Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern, state Sen. Dan Feltes, House Majority Leader Steve Shurtleff, state Senate Democratic Leader-elect Jeff Woodburn, Concord Mayor Jim Bouley, activist Jason Lyon, and political operative Mike Vlacich, who just served as Jeanne Shaheen's campaign manager.
• NY-11: Democratic ex-Rep. Mike McMahon has played an annoying game of footsie ever since he was turfed out after a single term on Staten Island in 2010. He seems to enjoy having his name in the papers but never really articulates his intentions, and in both of the intervening cycles, Democrats have been left with weaker alternatives. Now he's back to his old shtick, talking at length about the recent election but insisting "no comment, no comment" when asked if he wants to run again. At this point, though, he's been out in the cold for a while and it's not really clear that he'd actually be a stronger alternative—if he's not just playing games anyhow.
Other Races:
• Philadelphia Mayor: The open race to replace Michael Nutter as the mayor of the City of Brotherly Getdafuckoutofmyway just got a high-profile, if somewhat surprising, entrant. Lynne Abraham, who was a constant presence in Philly politics as the city's elected District Attorney for nearly two decades (from 1991 to 2010), has apparently decided that retirement doesn't agree with her, and at age 73, is seeking a promotion.
Abraham, who earned the sobriquet "Queen of Death" for her aggressive seeking of the death penalty, will occupy the law-and-order corner of the field, likely to nail down the support of any surviving Frank Rizzo voters — Philadelphia's definitely less of a working-class white-ethnic city than it used to be 20 years ago, though. She joins Nutter aide Terry Gillen and former city solicitor Ken Trujillo in the May 19 Democratic primary, which is tantamount to election in this very blue city.
Grab Bag:
• Votes: We haven't had an interesting vote that exposes fissures in one of the caucuses in a while, but we got one on Friday with the rushed vote to approve construction of the Keystone XL pipeline. There was no drama on the Republican side, where there were 221 aye votes and 1 'present' from the often-inscrutable Justin Amash.
On the Dem side, there were 161 no votes and 31 ayes, though some of the ayes will surprise you. The core Blue Dogs from rural areas voted aye, but some of the more conservative members from suburban areas (like Brad Schneider and Kurt Schrader) didn't. Instead, the ayes were rounded out by a fair number of Congressional Black Caucus members (though, again, the more rural or suburban ones, like Bennie Thompson, Terri Sewell, Sanford Bishop, and David Scott), and some fairly progressive members with old-school labor constituencies (like Mike Doyle, the recently-reelected Rick Nolan, and the newly-seated Donald Norcross).
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, with additional contributions from Jeff Singer, David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty