Republican Gov.Pat McCrory
The Tar Heel State looks like it will be one of the most closely watched states in 2016. Two Republican incumbents, Gov. Pat McCrory and Sen. Richard Burr, will be running for re-election in high profile races. North Carolina is one of a few states that will host a 2016 gubernatorial contest, and both parties very badly want a win here. Democrats looking to retake the Senate will also be eying Burr's seat as a potential pickup. It's far too early to know how either election will shape up, but a new Public Policy Poll indicates that both Republican incumbents will start out with
small but not ironclad leads.
McCrory is one of the more high-profile governors anywhere. His conservative policies have divided North Carolina, inflaming plenty of voters while delighting fellow Republicans. Democrats will be looking to unseat him, but McCrory and his wealthy allies will be pulling out all the stops to keep him in office.
PPP takes a look at the unfolding contest and finds mixed news for McCrory. On the one hand he's not popular, sporting an underwater 41-46 job approval rating. However, McCrory leads his most likely challenger, Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper, by a 46-39 margin. Cooper hasn't declared his candidacy but he's made no secret about his intentions. Despite spending 14 years as state attorney general Cooper is largely unknown to voters, with a 26-26 favorable rating. However, Cooper polls better than Treasurer Janet Cowell and former Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx, who each trail by double digits.
We're almost two years away from Election Day, and it's a good bet these margins will change once voters start paying attention. This poll does confirm that McCrory isn't popular enough to lock up re-election, but he's far from hated enough to be a sure loser. It's also possible that Cooper's lack of name recognition is holding him back, though Republicans will do everything they can to make sure that voters do not get a good first impression of their attorney general. Both parties should expect a competitive and very expensive contest here, but McCrory does seem to start out with at least a small edge.
Like McCrory, Republican Sen. Richard Burr starts out with a small but hardly dominant lead for re-election. In a hypothetical contest with outgoing Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan, Burr leads 46-43. Hagan hasn't said much about her future plans since her defeat last month, but she didn't rule out a 2016 comeback bid.
Burr isn't exactly Mr. Popularity, sporting an underwater 31-36. However, the rough 2014 campaign seems to have done a number on Hagan: She posts a 39-52 job approval. Hagan is a formidable candidate, keeping her re-election race close even in the face of a Republican wave. Some time away from Washington may also cool some of the anger toward her if she runs again. Still, that poor job approval rating is definitely a concern.
PPP tested a few other hypothetical Democratic candidates. Against Cowell, Burr posts a 44-38 edge. Burr has the same lead against Foxx, who currently serves as U.S. secretary of transportation. Foxx doesn't seem incredibly interested in a Senate race, so this probably won't go too far. Cowell has been mentioned as a potential candidate, though she doesn't appear to have said anything about her level of interest. Unlike Hagan, Foxx and Cowell are largely unknown to voters right now, and it would be a mistake to assume that they would be weaker candidates simply because they poll worse nearly two years away from Election Day.
North Carolina is a very polarized state but slightly red-leaning state, and neither party can take it for granted. Burr is no pushover but he's far from invincible, and Democrats will definitely be looking to put his seat in play. We'll find out in the coming months who Democrats recruit to take him on.