Shai Galili, the comptroller of the Israeli political party Likud (the main right-wing party in Israel and the main partner in the Israeli governing coalition), has disqualified Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from running in the party leadership primary on December 31:
Shai Galili, Likud’s comptroller, disqualified Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for running for the party leadership in the December 31 primary, a move that Netanyahu disputes and is likely to appeal.
Here's why Galili disqualified Netanyahu from running for another term as the leader of his own party:
Galili said Netanyahu must answer claims that he improperly used party resources in his leadership primary run.
[...]
Galili described an event Netanyahu held at Likud headquarters in Tel Aviv – party property – for activists and chapter leaders on December 11, with the help of party employees.
The comptroller quoted Netanyahu’s speech at the event as follows: “I want to thank my friends here, Likud members, who expressed support for me yesterday as leader of the country and Likud.... Likud members understand this election is about only one question: Who will lead the country, left-wing candidates that continue to multiply, or a broad, strong Likud government led by me, a government that will lead the State of Israel to safety, responsibly and determinedly. We will give that answer.”
Obviously, Netanyahu has threatened to fight the decision to keep him off of his party's leadership ballot every step of the way, but this isn't the only sign of electoral trouble for Netanyahu and his party.
Polling earlier this month indicated that Gideon Sa'ar, a former Israeli interior minister, may have been able to beat Netanyahu in a leadership primary, although the poll in question sampled members of the Israeli electorate at-large and not the electorate for Likud leadership elections and Sa'ar declined to mount a leadership challenge to Netanyahu. However, Danny Danon, a member of the Israeli Knesset (Israel's unicameral national legislature), is mounting a leadership challenge to Netanyahu, and it's not clear to me as to whether or not anti-Netanyahu sentiment is significant enough within Netanyahu's own party to put him in danger of losing re-election to his own party's leadership should he win his appeal and get on his party's leadership ballot, and it's also not clear to me as to whether or not Danon can defeat Netanyahu for the Likud leadership if Netanyahu were to win his appeal and get on the leadership ballot. I'm not familiar with Israeli politics, but I don't think that Netanyahu can remain prime minister if either his disqualification from his party's leadership election is upheld or he were to lose a leadership election to another member of his own party.
Additionally, Netanyahu's Likud party could be in trouble of losing control of Israeli government (although the chances of this appear to be low), as recent polling has shown that it could be theoretically possible, but not likely, that the center-left alliance of the Labor and Livini parties could be able to form a coalition government, although they'd need most or all of the other non-Likud parties to join them in order to do so.
Furthermore, Netanyahu has reportedly hired John McLaughlin to conduct polling for his political operation:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hired John McLaughlin, a US-based pollster noted for his surveys on Republican candidates, ahead of the March 17 Israeli elections, Channel 2 reported on Tuesday
McLaughlin, the CEO of McLaughlin and Associates, has worked with Netanyahu in the past, according to his website. He has also worked with former presidential candidates, three governors, 22 senators, and some 20 Republican members of Congress.
If the names John McLaughlin or McLaughlin and Associates sound familiar to you, that's the same pollster and polling company that provided internal polling to former Republican U.S. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor during his 2014 Republican primary election. McLaughlin produced a poll for Cantor's campaign that showed Cantor ahead of Tea Party Republican primary challenger Dave Brat by 34 points, but Cantor lost the primary to Brat by 11 points, which means that McLaughlin's poll was off by a whopping 45 points! McLaughlin's polling here in the States has been so bad,
even Republican Party officials have advised their candidates not to hire McLaughlin.
Someone with more knowledge of Israeli politics commented on here and gave us some insight as to what is going on in Israel in the comments section of this diary:
Israeli political parties in general, and the Likud in particular, are basically a bunch of young kids lacking any kind of adult supervision. They're a rat-(expletive)'s paradise. People abuse the rules, and screw each other over with delirious abandon. It's true down in the political organizations in college campuses, and it's true at the national level too. Everything people don't like in party politics happens in Israel. And some other stuff too.
I think it's wildly unlikely that push-come-to-shove, that Netanyahu would not be on the top of the Likud's list (i.e., their candidate for Prime Minister). Certainly, there are a couple of lunatics who are considering doing it -- people who are far more right wing than he is, for one thing. But even if they succeeded, Netanyahu would just organize his own list, and compete against the Likud. At worse (for Netanyahu) he wouldn't be the first person to be charged like by the president to try and form a government. Since I think it's unlikely anyone center or left can get enough seats to make a difference, in the end, Netanyahu would still be able to cobble together a coalition with 61 or more seats, and form a government.
I don't want to get anybody's hopes up, but Benjamin Netanyahu could be in serious trouble of losing power in Israel. Even if the odds of Netanyahu losing power are slim, there's still a chance of that happening.
6:52 PM PT: Updated the diary to include insight on Israeli politics from someone who left a comment on this diary.