Colorado Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet
Leading Off:
• CO-Sen: Along with Harry Reid, Michael Bennet has the dubious distinction of being 2016's most vulnerable Senate Democrat. The GOP, emboldened by Cory Gardner's victory over Mark Udall last year, is searching for their candidate and has a few possibilities in mind. And in an odd case, two of them live in the same house.
Alexis Levinson of Roll Call reports that incoming Attorney General Cynthia Coffman and her husband Rep. Mike Coffman are both being touted as potential contenders and neither is quite ruling it out. In an interview Cynthia Coffman says she may run for House or Senate "one day," but is focused on her new post. She also notes that she asked Mike about his Senate plans, but her husband didn't ask her the same question.
As for the congressman, he recently told Roll Call that he's focusing on running for the House again but didn't say no to a Senate bid. If the congressman ran for the Senate he would open up his swingy suburban Denver seat, though Democrats will likely target it even if he seeks re-election. Back in 2012 Mike Coffman proved to be a very shaky candidate, getting tripped up after he was asked about President Obama's birth certificate. However, he turned in a much more solid performance in 2014, and handily defeated a well-funded Democratic recruit.
The state GOP also has quite a few other potential recruits in mind, and none of them are married to one another. Like the Coffmans, Arapahoe County District Attorney George Brauchler didn't close the door on running, but he says he's not thinking about it right now. Brauchler is about to start prosecuting the suspect in the 2012 Aurora movie theater shooting, which will definitely get the DA some statewide attention. The trial will likely last until the end of the year, and many Republican operatives say a 2018 gubernatorial campaign may make more sense and be more appealing for Brauchler. However, it's worth noting that Gardner only entered the race in February of 2014, so a quick turnaround is doable.
Treasurer Walker Stapleton is also not saying no, but like the others he doesn't sound like he's chomping at the bit to run. Stapleton is a cousin of Jeb Bush, which would make things interesting if both of them are on the 2016 ballot. Further down the totem poll we have Rep. Ken Buck, who lost to Bennet in 2010. Buck too isn't saying no, but he may be a lot more reluctant to go for it now that he has a House seat to lose. Plenty of national Republicans were not happy with Buck's 2010 run and his 2014 Senate campaign never really got off the ground, and they wouldn't be devastated if he sat this one out.
State Sen. Ellen Roberts does sound more interested than the rest of the pack, saying she's considering it. Businessman Robert Blaha is also looking at a Senate run, but he's probably not high on anyone's wish list: Blaha challenged Rep. Doug Lamborn in the 2012 primary and lost 62-38 despite spending quite a bit of his own money. State Sen. Owen Hill and state Rep. Amy Stephens could also go for it, though their 2014 bids didn't leave too many people impressed.
Senate:
• CA-Sen: Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer is still considered likely, but not certain, to retire in 2016. Until she makes her plans clear, the already-huge list of potential Democratic successors is only going to grow. Roll Call gives us two other potential contenders: Reps. John Garamendi and Raul Ruíz.
Unlike most of the other would-be candidates, Team Blue could actually suffer if either congressman ran. Garamendi represents a light blue Northern California seat that Obama carried 54-43. Democrats would be favored to keep it without Garamendi, but the national party would likely feel better if the incumbent stayed put. Ruíz's Palm Springs-area seat is much more swingy, backing the president only 51-48. Ruíz is a strong candidate and he easily held his district in the 2014 red wave, and the DCCC would not be happy if they had to defend the seat without him.
The GOP bench in this very blue state is nothing to write home about, and there's no word on who could run. Republican operatives tell Roll Call that they'd like a self-funder, but they don't provide any names. There's no shortage of rich conservatives in the Golden State, but the trick is finding one who's willing to part with a lot of dough on what would be a long-shot bid.
• NC-Sen: Greenville Mayor Allen Thomas recently earned some attention as a potential Democratic candidate against Sen. Richard Burr. However, Thomas wasted little time taking his name out of contention. Local and national Democrats probably won't miss him much... if they can get their first choice candidate to run.
Former Sen. Kay Hagan impressed plenty of people by keeping things close in a devastating year like 2014, and it's no secret that plenty of Democrats want her to run against Burr. National Journal tells us that her party is "pleading" with her to go for it, and expects her to decide "by the spring."
• NH-Sen, WI-Sen: Besides former North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan (see our NC-Sen item), local Democrats are heavily courting two other candidates to run for Senate: New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan and former Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold. National Journal gives us some insight into how the recruitment process is going for both. In the Granite State, it sounds like Hassan will make her plans more clear after the legislative session finishes up early in the summer. Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte will not be easy to beat, and Hassan is widely seen as Team Blue's best bet here.
In Wisconsin, there's a lot of Democratic optimism that Feingold will take on Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, who unseated him in 2010. Feingold would almost certainly clear the field if he ran, and plenty of progressives would love to see him back in Congress. However, as Nathan Gonzales recently reminded us, Feingold's 2010 campaign had its share of internal problems: There are probably a few Democrats who would be secretly relieved if he didn't make a comeback attempt after all. If the former senator passes, the National Journal mentions Rep. Ron Kind as a viable backup option; fellow Rep. Gwen Moore also recently expressed interest in running if Feingold doesn't.
Gubernatorial:
• IN-Gov: Republican Gov. Mike Pence has made it no secret that he's considering running for president rather than for re-election in 2016. The governor says he'll make a decision after the legislative session ends in late April. Pence is very popular in the state and if he seeks another term he should have little to worry about. However, in Pence makes a White House bid, that would set up a dramatic open seat race.
Or would it? Currently, Indiana law prevents candidates from seeking state and federal office at the same time. However, Republican state Sen. Mike Delph is writing a bill that would let incumbent governors and state legislators run for both re-election and for any federal office. We don't know how much support there is for Delph's proposal, with Pence and legislative leaders refusing to express support or opposition for it. Still, it's a good sign for Delph that the idea isn't being shot down immediately. Republicans hold supermajorities in both chambers so there's little Democrats can do to stop this from going through.
• MS-Gov, LG: Back in November, Democratic Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley raised some eyebrows when he held a Washington fundraiser hosted by some big names. There was speculation that Presley could run for lieutenant governor or even challenge Republican Gov. Phil Bryant this year, speculation that Presley did little to dispel at the time.
However, in late December Presley filed to run for re-election to the public service commission, and he made it clear that he won't seek statewide office this time. There aren't many (or perhaps even any) other credible Democrats who are thinking about running against Bryant, who already looked like a safe bet to win re-election.
• ND-Gov, Sen: Rumors have been swirling for quite a while that Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp is seriously considering a gubernatorial campaign in 2016. The GOP seems to be taking the idea seriously, with a state legislator recently proposing a bill that would keep a Gov. Heitkamp from appointing her Senate successor.
Heitkamp herself hasn't said anything publicly about a gubernatorial run, but her Senate staff didn't exactly rule it out when asked, only providing a generic "Sen. Heitkamp is focused on her work to fight for North Dakotans in the U.S. Senate." Heitkamp ran for this post back in 2000, losing to her-now Senate colleague John Hoeven. It seems to be an open secret that Heitkamp would rather be a governor than a senator, especially now that she's in the minority.
Republican Gov. Jack Dalrymple is eligible to run again but he hasn't announced his plans, and doesn't sound like he's in a hurry to decide. Dalrymple had little trouble winning in 2012 and he'd probably be favored for re-election even against Heitkamp. For his part though, Hoeven isn't being vague about his 2016 intentions. When asked by The Hill, Hoeven's office confirmed that he plans to run again. The Republican easily took this seat in 2010 and it would be a massive surprise if he faced any serious primary or general election opposition.
• VT-Gov: The strange saga of Democratic Gov. Peter Shumlin's re-election isn't quite over yet. In November, Shumlin unexpectedly and embarrassingly came close to losing his seat to Republican Scott Milne. Because no candidate won a majority, the Vermont legislature will choose the new governor in a Jan. 8 vote.
Democrats took some losses in the 2014 legislative elections but still maintain strong majorities, and it's hard to see Milne prevailing. Still, Milne is encouraging legislators to vote for him, even though Shumlin still earned more votes. An organization called Vermonters for Honest Government is also running local ads arguing that Milne should get chosen. For his part, Shumlin himself says he won't campaign in the next few days.
The governor attracted some anger from the left when he abandoned his quest for single-payer healthcare, (though his move may have also appeased some worried legislators) so it's quite possible a few Democrats sit out the vote. It would still take a lot of defections or abstentions for Shumlin to lose his seat, but we'll be watching on Thursday just in case.
• WV-Gov: Neither party's field has taken shape yet for the 2016 open seat race, but one prominent Republican is clearly interested in a promotion. Attorney General Patrick Morrisey recently told the Charleston Daily Mail that he's not ruling out a campaign for governor. If Morrisey won, he'd be one of the few governors to have run for office in another state: Back in 2000 he ran for New Jersey's 7th District, and placed a distant fourth in the primary. This didn't seem to hold Morrisey back in his 2012 attorney general race, though I'd be shocked if one of his gubernatorial opponents didn't try and portray him as a carpetbagger.
Republican state party chair Conrad Lucas recently mentioned Rep. David McKinley and incoming state Senate President Bill Cole as potential candidates along with Morrisey, though both men don't appear to have said anything public about their 2016 plans. On the Democratic side, Sen. Joe Manchin is thinking about reclaiming his old office.
House:
• NY-11: On Monday Republican Rep. Michael Grimm's resignation from the House became official, setting off a special election to fill his Staten Island seat. Both parties are expected to compete hard for this district, which Obama won 52-47. However, Republicans have held this seat for most of the past few decades and they tend to do well downballot on Staten Island, and they'll likely start out with the advantage here.
In the Empire State county party committees select the nominees, and there doesn't seem to be much doubt who Team Red will choose. Richmond County District Attorney Daniel Donovan hasn't officially declared his candidacy but that hasn't stopped prominent Republicans from tripping over themselves to endorse him. Donovan's most important backer is Staten Island GOP chair John Antoniello, who has a considerable say over who will get the nomination. Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis has continued to express interest in getting the GOP nod, but that's not looking incredibly likely right now: Even state Sen. Martin Golden, a Malliotakis ally, is behind Donovan.
Two potential GOP candidates have also seen the writing on the wall and decided not to run. A comeback bid from former Rep. Vito Fossella, who retired in 2008 under a cloud of scandal, always seemed too good to be true. And indeed, Fossella recently announced that he wouldn't run. Over the weekend former Borough President James Molinaro also dipped his toe in the water but decided not to swim. State Sen. Andrew Lanza has been quiet about a potential run, but it sounds like he's missed whatever chance he had.
On the Democratic side, Assemblyman Michael Cusick and former Rep. Michael McMahon have been mulling runs for a while, but we now have two new names. On Monday Assemblyman William Colton confirmed his interest in the seat, and Councilman Vincent Gentile's camp also acknowledged he's thinking about jumping in. Both Colton and Gentile hail from Brooklyn, which could cause them problems in the general election. Plenty of Staten Islanders already feel like they're underrepresented in government and the last thing they'll want is a congressman from another borough. By contrast, both McMahon and Cusick are from the island.
It may be a while before everything gets sorted out, since it's unclear when the special election will be held. Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo is required to hold the election 70 to 80 days after the seat is declared vacant. But as Nathan Gonzales notes, Cuomo can wait to declare the vacancy for almost as long as he wants. Back in April 2010, then-Gov. David Paterson managed to postpone the special election to fill Eric Massa's seat until November- 239 days after Massa resigned from office! Cuomo may not wait that long, but it may be a while before this seat is filled.
• NY-24: It looks like we won't have Dan Maffei to kick around anymore. The former Democratic congressman unexpectedly lost his seat in 2010, got it back in 2012, then was dumped in a shocking 60-40 defeat last year. Maffei has decided to end this boom-and-bust cycle, telling Syracuse.com that he has no plans to run for office again. We haven't heard the last about this seat though: Republican John Katko will be a top Democratic target in 2016, and he won't be able to rest easy in his 57-40 Obama district.
Other Races:
• Ballot Measures: You might remember that in the wake of November's election, where a number of states passed ballot measures that moved the Democratic agenda forward even as they were defeating Democratic politicians, we called for increased use of the direct democracy process in states that allow it. It's not clear whether leaders in the gun control movement read that article, but it's clear that they've reached the same conclusions; in the wake of Washington's successful I-594, other states are now turning to ballot measures to enact expanded background checks. The New York Times reports that a similar measure has already qualified for the 2016 ballot in Nevada, while activists are organizing for such measures in Arizona, Maine, and Oregon as well.
• Philadelphia Mayor: Terry Gillen, a former director of Philadelphia's Redevelopment Agency, did a quick about-face after being the first candidate in the city's 2015 open mayoral race; she ended her campaign, saying that she wasn't able to raise the necessary money.
At the same time, though, there's a new entrant: Doug Oliver, who was outgoing Mayor Michael Nutter's spokesman during his first term. Oliver, who's currently a vice-president at Philadelphia Gas Works, will apparently run as a Democrat, after giving some consideration to running as a Republican as well. He joins ex-District Attorney Lynne Abraham, state Sen. Anthony Hardy Williams, and ex-City Solicitor Ken Trujillo in the Democratic primary, with ex-judge Nelson Diaz also planning to enter soon.
• Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso gives as the rundown on the results of 2014's final election:
Iowa SD-12: This was an easy hold for Republicans; Mark Costello defeated Democrat Steve Adams by a 74-22 margin, with Libertarian Don Brantz picking up the remaining 3 percent. (Write-ins account for the missing percentage point.)
We also have quite a few races to look forward to on Tuesday. Via Johnny:
Iowa HD-04: This is an open Republican seat located in the northwestern corner of the state, in Sioux County. The nominees are Democrat John Buntsma, a former newspaper editor, and Republican John Kooiker, a farmer. At 84-16 Romney, this is the most Republican district in the state.
Texas SD-26: This is an open Democratic seat located in San Antonio and its suburbs. There are three Democrats running, including state Reps. Trey Martinez Fischer and Jose Menendez and Converse Mayor Al Suarez. Two Republicans are also running: state party official Alma Perez Jackson and former court administrator Joan Pedrotti. Under Texas special election law if no candidate hits 50 percent of the vote, a runoff will occur between the top-two vote-getters, regardless of party. This district went for Obama by a 62-36 margin.
Texas HD-17: This is an open Republican seat southeast of Austin. There are five candidates running: Democrats Shelly Cartier, a realtor, and Ty McDonald, a pastor; Republicans John Cyrier, a contractor, and Brent Golemon, an entrepreneur; and independent Linda Curtis, a community organizer. This seat went 61-37 Romney in 2012.
Texas HD-123: This is an open Democratic seat in San Antonio. There are six candidates running here, including three Democrats: former San Antonio Councilmen Diego Bernal and Walter Martinez, and public relations firm owner Melissa Aguillon. Also in the mix are Republican insurance agent Nunzio Previtera, Green psychologist Paul Ingmundson, and Libertarian Roger Gary, who ran for the Railroad Commission in 2010. This district went 61-37 for Obama in 2012.
Virginia HD-34: This is the seat vacated by Rep. Barbara Comstock, stretching from McLean to eastern Loudoun County. Kathleen Murphy, the Democrat who narrowly lost to Comstock in 2013, is running again, while the Republicans have nominated businessman Craig Parisot. The district is pretty evenly split, having gone 51-47 for Warner in 2014, 52-42 for McAuliffe in 2013, and 50-49 for Obama in 2012.
The main event of the night will be in Virginia's HD-34. The
Washington Post gives us a good
preview of the contest, where Murphy has amassed a large fundraising advantage over Parisot. The GOP will still hold a massive majority in the House even if this seat flips: However, if Democrats want to carve out a more respectable minority (much less a majority), this is exactly the type of seat they need.
Via Ballotpedia, we also have specials in Georgia's 50th and 120th House districts, and Virginia's 63rd House seat. The Georgia races are pretty much all-GOP affairs, with a few minor parties also running in HD-50: If no candidate takes a majority, the top-two contenders advance to a runoff regardless of party. In Virginia, Democrat Joseph Preston faces only an independent in this heavily Democratic seat.
Grab Bag:
• Deaths: In the last few days two notable Northeastern politicians passed away. Over at The New Yorker Ken Auletta provides a great remembrance of former New York Democratic Gov. Mario Cuomo. The Boston Globe's Mark Feeney gives us an informative obituary of former Massachusetts Republican Sen. Edward Brooke, who was the first African American to serve in the chamber since Reconstruction. Bloomberg's Greg Giroux also takes a look at the 20 former members of Congress who died in 2014.
• Demographics: Richard Florida, in an op-ed for the New York Times, explores some of the interesting conundrums in how and where the country's population is growing. While the blue states, especially the ones with major cities, are increasingly driving the nation's economy (and are richer, and have better health and education outcomes), much of the country's population growth is going to the red states ... not because that's where the best-paying jobs are, but that's because it's where the most-affordable housing is.
(Or more accurately, where the housing that conforms best to the American tradition -- detached single-family dwellings with yards -- is most affordable. Which suggests that these population trends might not change even if our major cities can overcome zoning and NIMBY issues and add long-overdue units by growing upward, not out.) One highlight of the article is the accompanying graph, showing a strong correlation between how unaffordable a housing market is and how likely it is to vote Democratic.
This creates a number of problems, Florida argues. One the one hand, the increasing difficulty in affording life in the nation's global cities is increasing the inequality in blue states; while decades ago, the worst inequality (according to Gini coefficients) was in the rural Southern states, now it's often in places like New York, California, and Massachusetts. But the red states' increasing political power and conservative politics (which is further increased as their populations grow) make it harder to raise the revenue necessary to keep the expensive educational and transportation infrastructure functioning that powers the nation's knowledge economy.
Florida's piece feels a little sketched-out (hopefully it's the abstract for his next full-length book) and lacking solutions. But it puts a finger on some of the core issues in the tangle of our current political, demographic, and geographical problems.
Adam Carstens has an interesting re-jiggering of Florida's graph which is also worth a look; he starts by categorizing states as "legacy" or "frontier" states (i.e. whether they're stagnant or growing), and finds that growth isn't limited to red states and stagnation isn't limited to blue states. But more importantly, it's a reminder that performing this kind of analysis at the 'state' level isn't always that illuminating; Massachusetts means not only Boston but also Worcester, and New York means not only NYC but also Rochester, for instance.
In other words, if you want an affordable, slow-paced city in a blue state, you can still find one, so the country's shifting center of gravity from Northeast and Midwest to South and West has more going on than just affordability. (Something as mundane as weather, for instance, may be the main factor why people aren't pouring in to, say, Rochester.)
• Religion: One thing that Pew Research spends a lot of time on, but that doesn't get much attention at Daily Kos Elections, is studying religion and its role in America's public life. Here's a way to combine that and politics, though; they've released some interesting data on the religious composition of Congress' members, both current and past. As you might expect, Christians are definitely overrepresented in Congress, though not at the expense of other religions, but rather at the expense of 'unaffiliated,' a category that encompasses 20 percent of Americans but only one current member (Kyrsten Sinema).
Both Protestants and Catholics are overrepresented at similar rates, though if you delve a little deeper into the various kinds of Protestants, you'll notice that mainline denominations are overrepresented while, surprisingly (given the GOP's social conservative bent), evangelicals are still underrepresented. Pew also breaks it down at regional levels, showing the same general pattern in each part of the country (the data point that stands out the most perhaps being that the heavily-Catholic Northeast still has more Protestant than Catholic members).
The most interesting part of the project may be a table tracking the changes over time, from Congress in the early 1960s until now. Here, you can see a big shift from a heavily-Protestant Congress 50 years ago to one with considerably more Catholics now. A regional breakdown to this historical trend data would be particularly interesting, because I suspect that the 18 percent of Catholics then were largely limited to the Northeast, but the growth to 30 percent Catholics now has mostly to do with the growth of a large Latino population in the Southwest.
• WATN: Ken Cuccinelli is an oyster farmer. Yes, really.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty.