Attorney General Kamala Harris and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, two of the many prospective Democratic Senate candidates
Leading Off:
• CA-Sen: On Thursday, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer officially announced her retirement after four terms. Boxer's departure was long expected, but it will nevertheless set off an unpredictable race to succeed her.
Under California election law, all the candidates will run on the same ballot in the June primary. The top-two vote-getters, regardless of party, will advance to the general election. In this very blue state most of the action is expected to be on the Democratic side, and it's possible we could have a Democratic vs. Democratic general election. It's also possible, if not likely, that top-two candidates could both be Republicans if too many Democrats split the vote.
There's really no shortage of candidates who could run in this giant state. Boxer and her Democratic Senate colleague Dianne Feinstein have been in office since 1992, and ambitious candidates haven't had much of an opportunity for advancement. Plenty of would-be contenders are eying the race, though some may wait until 2018 when Gov. Jerry Brown is termed-out and Feinstein is likely to retire as well.
Two Democrats have been getting the lion's share of attention for this seat: Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Kamala Harris. Either may run, but probably both of them won't. The Washington Post has a few good reasons why. Essentially, the two are quite close both personally and politically, and either can afford to hold their fire until in 2018. Harris is widely viewed as a rising star in the state party and may be strong enough to clear the field on her own if she runs, though it's hard to say at this point.
Harris and Newsom are far from the only ones eying this seat though. Over the fold we take a look at who else may run, and who has already ruled out a campaign.
Over the last few months Politico, Roll Call, and the San Francisco Chronicle have all taken a look at who could succeed Boxer. On Thursday we also got more potential names from MSNBC, the Sacramento Bee, The Hill, and the Washington Post. Apart from Harris and Newsom, here is a look at which Democrats have been named, along with any other pertinent information about their intentions:
• Rep. Karen Bass
• Rep. Xavier Becerra
• Treasurer John Chiang
• Rep. John Garamendi
• Former Rep. Jane Harman
• Sacramento Mayor Kevin Johnson- office answered "no comment" when asked about his plans
• Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones
• San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo
• Former Treasurer Bill Lockyer
• Secretary of State Alex Padilla
• Rep. Raul Ruiz
• Rep. Loretta Sanchez- did not rule out a run on Thursday
• Rep. Adam Schiff
• Los Angeles County Supervisor and former U.S. Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis
• Rep. Jackie Speier
• Former state Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg
• Billionaire Tom Steyer- sources close to him say he's interested
• Former Rep. Ellen Tauscher
• Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa- sources close to him say he's "seriously considering"
• Former Controller Steve Westly
• Controller Betty Yee
It's worth noting that Raul Ruiz represents a very swingy House seat. Ruiz demonstrated in 2014 that he's capable of holding it under very bad conditions, and the DCCC will likely encourage him to stay put.
We also have some Democrats who took their name out of consideration on Thursday:
• State Senate President Pro Tem Kevin De Leon
• Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti
• Facebook Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg
It won't be easy for Republicans to pick up this seat, though Democrats need to take the possibility of two Republicans making in to the general election seriously. In any case, here are some of Team Red's prospective candidates:
• Former Rep. Mary Bono
• 2014 gubernatorial nominee Neel Kashkari
• Wealthy physicist Charles Munger
• Former Rep. Doug Ose
• Former Insurance Commissioner and 2010 gubernatorial candidate Steve Poizner
• Rep. Ed Royce
• Former state party chair Duf Sundheim- says he's "seriously exploring" a bid.
• Fresno Mayor and 2014 controller nominee Ashley Swearengin
• HP CEO and 2010 gubernatorial nominee Meg Whitman
No, I've never heard of Duf Sundheim either.
In the unlikely but not definite no category we have San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and 2010 Senate nominee Carly Fiorina. On Thursday Faulconer tweeted that his focus is on leading San Diego and continuing to write our city's comeback story." That's not an iron clad no, but it doesn't seem like he's going for it. The mayor is up for re-election in 2016 and if he did change his mind he'd need to give up his seat. Faulconer's probably the strongest Republican in California, and he'll probably make a run for statewide office before too long in any case. Fiorina is also unlikely to run again since she currently lives in Virginia and is planning a presidential bid.
In the definite no category for the GOP we have:
• Rep. Darrell Issa
• Former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
• Former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger
There's a lot of dust left to settle, and it's quite possible new names from each party will jump in. This is going to be a giant and unpredictable race, and we'll be watching each development here at Daily Kos Elections.
Senate:
• KS-Sen, 01: That sound you're hearing is the sad sound of cat fud being returned to its container. Back in November tea partying Republican Rep. Tim Huelskamp didn't rule out challenging Sen. Jerry Moran in the primary, which would have been nothing if not entertaining. However, on Wednesday, Huelskamp told Roll Call that he's not going for it. Moran now looks likely to escape a serious primary challenge, though after watching Sen. Pat Roberts' near death experience last year you can never really be sure what hijinks will ensue.
Huelskamp's own re-election isn't going to be a slam-dunk though. He only defeated an unheralded primary challenger by a 55-45 margin in 2014, and he's managed to piss off quite a number of local interests back at home. Several credible Republicans are already looking to take on the incumbent in his safely red western Kansas seat, so we may see some Huelskamp-shaped fireworks after all.
• PA-Sen, AG: Yeah, Democrats are pretty relieved that Attorney General Kathleen Kane isn't running for Senate. Kane has been in hot water for a while, after reports emerged that she leaked sensitive information about an investigation to embarrass and undermine a former deputy AG.
On Thursday, a grand jury and special prosecutor recommended that Montgomery County District Attorney Risa Vetri Ferman indict Kane. As the Philadelphia Inquirer tells us, Kane would be the second sitting Keystone State attorney general to be arrested: Back in 1995 Republican Earnest Preate Jr. resigned in disgrace after pleading guilty to accepting illegal contributions. This seat is up for re-election in 2016 and while Kane has declared her candidacy, it's almost impossible to see her returning to office after this. It's a stunning fall from grace for someone who not too long ago was seen as a future governor or senator.
Gubernatorial:
• VT-Gov: Our long Green Mountain State nightmare is over. On Thursday, the Vermont legislature officially re-elected Democratic Gov. Peter Shumlin to a third two-year term. Because Shumlin failed to secure a majority in November against Republican Scott Milne, the legislature was tasked with choosing the new governor.
Vermont Democrats dominate both chambers and it seemed unlikely that they would pick Milne, who came close but still failed to secure a plurality. However, Mine and his allies tried to persuade legislators to go for him, arguing that a majority of the state voted against Shumlin. In the last few days the governor did seem a bit worried that his own party could through him out, but it was not to be.
Ultimately, the final vote was 110-69 in favor of Shumlin. Democrats and their allies hold a total of 116 of the 180 seats in both chambers so there were definitely a few defections, but not nearly enough to help Milne. If Shumlin does run for another term in 2016 he should probably expect a serious challenge after his weak 2014 performance, but for now he's secured another two years in Montpelier.
P.S.: One thing we'd wondered about was whether the legislature could pick whomever they wanted for governor, or if their options were limited, and it turns out it's the latter. Legislators were handed a secret ballot with three names: Shumlin, Milne, and third-place finisher and Libertarian nominee Dan Feliciano. Even if Democratic members were tired of Shumlin, they had no other options besides defecting or abstaining.
House:
• NY-11: Staten Island District Attorney Daniel Donovan has been consolidating local Republican support for the upcoming special election like there's no tomorrow, but not everyone in the red team is happy about it. Politico reports that national Republicans, including NRCC head Greg Walden, would rather not have Donovan as their standard bearer, but not because they're afraid he'll cost them the seat.
Donovan set off plenty of national controversy after he did not secure an indictment for the police officer that killed Eric Garner. National Republicans are looking to improve their standing among minority groups ahead of the 2016 presidential race, and Donovan could very well give be an unwanted distraction- something our own by Steve Singiser talked about in a recent essay.
However, they may be stuck with Donovan whether they like it or not. County party committees choose the nominees in New York special elections, and Donovan looks like he has things sown up. Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis, who like Donovan has not officially entered the race, is meeting with national Republicans. She did get some long-awaited good news recently from the Brooklyn GOP: The group looks ready to endorse her, though nothing's official yet.
The problem for Malliotakis is that county endorsements are weighted, and Staten Island is a much larger and redder presence in the 11th District than Brooklyn (there are no other counties in the district). As long as the Staten Island Republican Party stays firmly in Donovan's corner, there's not much Malliotakis can do to salvage an endorsement.
Donovan would likely start out as the clear favorite to hold this seat, but if he turns out to be as big of a national lightning rod as many expect him to be, this may turn out to be a Pyrrhic victory.
• NY-13: Longtime Rep. Charlie Rangel has made it clear for a while that he's retiring from this safely Democratic seat, and the contest to succeed him is starting to take shape. Former Assemblyman Adam Clayton Powell IV confirmed on Wednesday that he's likely to run, saying he's "very interested." Powell is the son of Adam Clayton Powell Jr., whom Rangel beat back in 1970. The younger Powell tried to return the favor in 1994 and 2010, losing the latter race 51-23. Since then Powell has been biding his time waiting for Rangel to retire, and now he has his shot at an open seat.
Powell won't have the primary field to himself though. Assemblyman Keith Wright, another Rangel ally and the head of the Manhattan Democratic Party, recently formed an exploratory committee and looks likely to jump in as well. Former DNC Political Director Clyde Williams is also interested in another bid. Williams ran in 2012 and placed a distant third with only 10 percent of the vote. However, Williams was a very effective fundraiser and he may have a better shot in an open seat.
State Sen. Adriano Espaillat also has not ruled out a run. Espaillat came close to unseating Rangel in 2012 and 2014, but survived a messy primary of his own later last year. The other three prospective candidates are African Americans while Espaillat is Dominican, which could help him if he can consolidate enough of the Hispanic vote. Espaillat wasn't able to do this in either of his last two campaigns, but he may have better luck now that Rangel won't be in the race.
• PA-08: On Thursday, Democratic state Rep. Steve Santarsiero became the first credible contender to announce his candidacy for this open swing seat. Santarsiero's own state House district (HD-31) only backed Obama 51-48, so he does have experience winning in competitive territory.
Santarsiero won't have the field to himself though. Also on the Democratic side, Shaughnessy Naughton is considering another run for this seat. Naughton took on party favorite Kevin Strouse in 2014 and came very close to an upset despite being badly outspent.
Roll Call's Shira Center also has a few prospective GOP names from local operatives. There's a real effort to get retiring Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick to change his mind and run again. Fitzpatrick has easily held this seat since his 2010 return to Congress, and he'd probably be favored to keep it if he did abandon his term-limits pledge. However, the Republican persuasion campaign doesn't seem to be working so far.
Failing that, outgoing Lt. Gov. Jim Cawley seems to be the party's go-to guy. Cawley seems to be thinking it over but is also considering a run for state treasurer or even giving up politics all together. Two other potential Republicans are Bucks County Commission Chair Robert Loughery and state Rep. Scott Petri. Both parties are prepared to work hard to win here, and we should expect this to be one of 2016's most exciting House contests.
Grab Bag:
• Deaths: On Wednesday, former West Virginia Republican Gov. Arch Moore passed away at the age of 91. Moore, the father of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, was elected governor three times, and ever dealt former Democratic Gov. and Sen. Jay Rockefeller his only defeat in the 1972 race (Rockefeller beat him in their 1980 rematch). However, Moore's ethics were always questionable. He was found not guilty in 1976 for extortion, but later spent time in prison for corruption.
• History: On Tuesday John Boehner had a fairly bumpy re-election for speaker, though his victory was never in doubt. But as John Bicknell at Roll Call tells us, this week's vote was absolutely nothing compared to the 1855 one that produced the first Republican speaker.
Back then the GOP held a plurality in the chamber but needed to rely on other anti-Democratic parties like the Know Nothings for support. The various factions could not agree on one consensus candidate, and the entire process took two months and 133 ballots to resolve itself. In the end Nathaniel Banks was selected. Banks's tenure didn't last long, but he later served as governor of Massachusetts before playing a prominent role in the Civil War in Louisiana as a Union general. Banks returned to the House after the war, though he never served as speaker again.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty.