The Urban Institute
released a new study this week on the potential economic impact of the Supreme Court striking down tax credits for people buying health insurance on the federal exchange under Obamacare. They find that it would create both a sharp drop in revenue for healthcare providers and a huge surge in uncompensated care. Some of the
top line findings [pdf]:
- Just in 2016, 8.2 million would become uninsured because of King, resulting in more than $12 billion in uncompensated care.
- Gains made under the law in reducing uncompensated care would be wiped out and it would return to unsustainable levels.
- The 8.2 million uninsured would dramatically cut their health care spending. Providers would then be hit with the loss of that revenue, in addition to payment cuts under the ACA, lower revenues, and higher levels of uncompensated care.
That's all made worse by the fact that most of the states that are using the federal exchange also refused Medicaid expansion. Providers—particularly community hospitals—are already pinched by the reduction in Medicaid spending under Obamacare (increased Medicaid enrollments in the law were supposed to offset the spending cuts). That's why so many hospitals are closing in those states. Bottom line, healthcare spending by those losing insurance would fall from $27.1 billion to $5.3 billion and providers would lose $12 billion in uncompensated care.
At least 8.2 million people would simply not be able to afford health insurance—or healthcare. Nearly 10,000 people could die, per year, under those circumstances. That's what the Supreme Court has put at stake, and what Republicans have little intention of fixing.