Aaron Schock trots out of town
In the wake of Republican Rep. Aaron Schock's
sudden resignation on Tuesday, it's an opportune time for the Daily Kos Elections crew to resurrect a familiar feature from election cycles past: our House Open Seat Watch! Here's our first look at the 2016 cycle's retirements, resignations, and vacancies, as well as potential quitters and folks otherwise on the watch list who've confirmed they will indeed run for another term in the lower chamber. First up, the departures:
Note: "Age" in the above chart refers to an incumbent's age
on Election Day, not their current age. "O '12 %" refers to Barack Obama's share of the vote in each district in the 2012 presidential election.
We're up to ten confirmed open seats this cycle—three of which will be dealt with sooner rather than later via special elections (IL-18, MS-01, and NY-11). But there's much, much more below, so open seat fans will definitely want to head past the fold for our retirement watch list.
The below chart is the big enchilada, if you will—our retirement watch list, which includes potential retirees, primary victims, and candidates for other office:
The above list, of course, requires some judgment calls, particularly when dealing with less-than-ironclad statements. For instance, longtime Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson has been the subject of much retirement speculation for years, but he recently said that he's running "at this point." That's not exactly a Shermanesque declaration, but his conduct to date leads us to slot him as "more likely than not" to run again. For that reason, we've removed Peterson from the watch list, along with the following incumbents who have indicated that they will be running for re-election:
We'll keep the above lists updated periodically over the course of the cycle. If we've missed a potential retirement, please let us know in the comments!