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FL-Sen: On Saturday, Republican state Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater announced he
would not run for the Senate next year. As
recently as a week before, Atwater was reportedly calling activists and donors to tell them he was in, and his supporters had formed a super PAC to back his campaign-in-waiting just two days before he changed his plans. Atwater cited his family as the reason he won't jump in, saying that they didn't want him constantly traveling between South Florida and Washington. There are a host of other Republicans looking at this seat though, and we should see some movement here very soon. Republican incumbent Marco Rubio is set to announce on Monday if he'll run for president or for re-election (he's said repeatedly he won't try to do both), and all signals point to a White House run. (Jeff Singer)
• AZ-02: Over the weekend, former Democratic Rep. Ron Barber announced he would not seek a rematch with freshman Republican Martha McSally, who narrowly unseated him in 2014. Until a few days ago, there was little talk of a Barber restoration. But in a strange move, he told the media on Friday that he would unveil his 2016 plans on a local political talk show on Sunday, leading to two days of speculation that he was going to attempt a comeback. Democrats are expected to make this Southern Arizona seat, which Romney won 50-48, a top target, but McSally is going to be prepared for whatever comes her way. McSally announced that she had raised $640,000 in the last three months, a very good sum for a competitive contest.
Democrats have a good bench around the Tucson area, and there are a few potential candidates who could run in Barber's stead. State Rep. Bruce Wheeler has formed an exploratory committee, and he recently told TucsonSentinel.com that he would stay in regardless of what Barber did. Wheeler, who represents a light blue seat around Tucson, has said that he'll make a decision in May, but it sounds like he's in.
Former state Rep. Matt Heinz is another possibility. Heinz sounded ready to defer to Barber (not a surprise, since Barber easily beat him in a 2012 primary), but his calculations may change now. Businesswoman Nan Walden, state Sen. David Bradley, state Rep. Victoria Steele, and state Rep. Randy Friese have all been mentioned, though none of them have publicly expressed interest yet. However, state Sen. Steve Farley announced Friday that he's staying put, calling Congress "a horrible mess that I don't want to be a part of."
While the district is winnable for Democrats, there's a chance it won't stay that way. The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of Arizona's independent redistricting committee this summer and if they strike it down, the GOP legislature will have the chance to redraw the map their way. A redder district may not be good news for McSally though. State House Speaker David Gowan is reportedly planning to create a conservative Southern Arizona district that he could run in, and there may not be enough room for both him and McSally. (Jeff Singer)
8:46 AM PT: OH-Sen: As expected, the Ohio Democratic Party's executive committee voted to formally endorse ex-Gov. Ted Strickland for Senate over the weekend, with 82 of 102 members present supporting the move. Just as unsurprisingly, P.G. Sittenfeld, the 30-year-old Cincinnati city councilman that Strickland is trying to muscle out of the primary, says that he's staying put in the race for the right to challenge GOP Sen. Rob Portman.
Sittenfeld's game plan remains as unclear as ever, though. And indeed, another Ohio Democrat who was the subject of a similar establishment effort to boot her from a Senate primary, former Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, isn't even sympathetic. Brunner wound up losing the nomination to then-Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher in 2010 (who in turn got crushed by Portman), but nevertheless she says she thinks Sittenfeld "risks becoming irrelevant" with his quixotic crusade—something she'd know about.
8:56 AM PT (Jeff Singer): FL-Sen: On Monday, Republican Sen. Marco Rubio confirmed that he will not seek re-election to the Senate in 2016, and will instead run for president. It's been clear for a long time that we were in for an open seat here. While Rubio's presidential primary rival Rand Paul is safe for re-election in conservative Kentucky and can afford to wage a half-assed Senate campaign while he runs around Iowa and New Hampshire, Rubio never had that luxury in swingy Florida. Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy has been running here for a while, and there was no way Rubio could compete for the White House while he needed to fend off Team Blue at home.
There are a number of Republicans who are looking at taking Rubio's seat, but now that CFO Jeff Atwater isn't running, there's no obvious frontrunner. Rep. Ron DeSantis, a veteran who was a minor celebrity in conservative circles before he won his seat in 2012, has been talking about running, and his camp tells Politico that he's close to jumping in, and would start with $1 million in the bank. Fellow Rep. Tom Rooney has also been publicly considering a bid in recent days. Rooney is well-connected and wealthy (his grandfather founded the Pittsburgh Steelers).
Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera is another potential Republican contender. Lopez-Cantera, who is close to Rubio, met with the NRSC a few weeks ago, and he recently confirmed that he's thinking about it, though he won't make an announcement until after the legislative session ends May 1. Rep. Vern Buchanan has also talked about jumping in, and he's personally wealthy enough to make a splash. But Buchanan has been dogged with campaign finance violations, and they could be an issue if a Senate race.
In recent days, former Sen. George LeMieux began to mull a campaign to reclaim his old seat, saying, "I haven't been thinking about it, but America still needs saving so we'll see how it fleshes out." LeMieux, who used to be a top advisor to then-Republican Gov. Charlie Crist, was appointed to the Senate in 2009 and served a year-and-a-half, but he didn't seek a full term. LeMieux tried to run against Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson in 2012, but dropped out after he failed to gain traction in the primary.
Former state House Speaker Will Weatherford hasn't ruled anything out either. Weatherford, who has a young family, hasn't sounded very excited about jumping in, but his calculations may change now that Atwater is staying out. Politico's Marc Caputo also reports that Rep. David Jolly is interested, though Jolly himself hasn't said anything. Jolly represents a swing seat, so it's likely that the NRCC will pressure him to stay put.
It's likely that in the coming days, we'll see some more GOP politicians express interest. The state Republican Party has a deep bench here, though some would-be contenders may decide to run for Nelson's seat or for the open governor's office in 2018. In the Democratic side, Murphy has emerged as the clear favorite of the state and national parties, and no one credible has stepped up to challenge him. However, fellow Rep. Alan Grayson has threatened to oppose Murphy, and says he may not decide what to do until the May 2016 filing deadline. Grayson is wealthy and a great fundraiser, and he'd run to the left of Murphy, who has a reputation as a moderate. But Grayson also has a history of making controversial statements, and the DSCC would prefer the more disciplined Murphy at the helm.
This seat could very well decide control of the U.S. Senate, and both sides expect it to be closely contested next year. We have a long and exciting race ahead of us, and we'll be following everything here at Daily Kos Elections.
9:21 AM PT (Jeff Singer): FL-16: With Rep. Vern Buchanan considering a Senate run, several local Republicans are expressing interest in succeeding him. State Sen. Nancy Detert ran against Buchanan in the 2006, when this seat was last open. Detert, at the time a state representative, lost the primary to him 32-24, but the Sarasota Herald-Tribune reports that she's seriously thinking about trying again.
State Rep. Greg Steube was planning to run to replace the termed-out Detert in the state Senate, but says an open House seat might change his calculations. Manatee Supervisor of Elections Mike Bennett is seeking re-election to his current post, but also confirmed that he'd consider this seat. Sarasota County Sheriff Tom Knight is also a possible contender, calling the prospect of a House bid "intriguing."
Romney won this seat, which is based around the Sarasota area, by a 54-45 margin, and most of the action is expected to be on the GOP side. However, McCain carried this seat by a more modest 51-48 four years before, so it would make sense for the DCCC to field someone. The Herald-Tribune quotes former state Rep. and 2012 nominee Keith Fitzgerald saying this is winnable for his party, though Fitzgerald doesn't say anything about his own plans. Fitzgerald lost to Buchanan 54-46, but Democrats don't have a great bench here.
9:42 AM PT (Jeff Singer): FL-18: Last month, Republican Martin County School Board member Rebecca Negron confirmed that she's "seriously considering" running for the seat being vacated by Democratic Senate candidate Patrick Murphy. Negron is the wife of state Sen. Joe Negron, who quickly made it clear that he's staying in the legislature. State Rep. Pat Rooney has also expressed interest in running here, while businessman Gary Uber has reportedly talked to the NRCC about a bid, and there are several other Republicans who could seek this Romney 52-48 seat.
10:04 AM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-36: Back in February, Indio Mayor Lupe Ramos Watson expressed interest in taking on Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz, and it seems like she's going beyond just talk. Ramos recently created a campaign committee, though she hasn't announced anything yet. Obama won this Coachella Valley seat only 51-48, but Ruiz pulled off a 54-46 win during last years GOP wave, and he won't be easy to unseat. (H/t Politics1)
10:11 AM PT (Jeff Singer): IL-11: Last week, Democratic Rep. Bill Foster confirmed he would not run for Senate, but he may draw a credible Republican foe for re-election. DuPage County Board Member Tonia Khouri recently set up a campaign committee, though she has yet to say anything about her plans. Obama won this suburban Chicago seat 58-41, and Foster survived the GOP wave 53.5-46.5, so he probably won't have much to worry about in a presidential year, but Khouri could conceivably put this district on the map. (H/t Politics1)
10:24 AM PT (Jeff Singer): MD-01: It seems very hard to believe that Rep. Andy Harris will give up his safely red Eastern Shore seat to run for Senate in dark blue Maryland, but a few local Republicans are preparing just in case. Last month, state Senate Minority Leader J.B. Jennings said he would definitely run if this district up, and state House Minority Whip Kathy Szeliga is also a potential contender. Former Del. Mike Smigiel has already confirmed his interest, though the libertarian-flavored Smigiel says he may also try to unseat Harris if the incumbent seeks re-election.
10:32 AM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: Even as state Attorney General Kamala Harris has lined up endorsements and raised serious money, fellow Democrat and Rep. Loretta Sanchez has taken her time deciding whether to take her on. But on Friday, Sanchez said she'll make her choice within the next two weeks.
Sanchez sounds like she's ready to run, casting Harris as inexperienced. Of course, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa looked like he was about to jump in until he didn't, so we'll just need to wait a little longer and see. Fellow Southern California Democratic representatives Adam Schiff and Xavier Becerra are also considering the contest. Schiff has said he'll decide by the end of May, while Becerra has been far more vague about his timeline.
10:38 AM PT (Jeff Singer): IN-Sen: Republican Rep. Marlin Stutzman hasn't been shy about his interest in retiring Sen. Dan Coats seat, and he now says he'll decide by mid-May whether to run. Currently, former Coats chief of staff Eric Holcomb has the GOP field to himself, though several other notable pols, including four of Stutzman's House colleagues, are sniffing out the race. Holcomb, an ex-state party chair, is about as establishment as they come, and the tea party friendly Stutzman would definitely make for an interesting contrast.
10:50 AM PT (Jeff Singer): NY-01: Democrats are looking to challenge freshman Republican Lee Zeldin early before he can become entrenched on this eastern Long Island seat, but so far things have been very quiet. Back in late February, Newsday named three Democrats who might be interested in challenging him, but none of them look incredibly eager. Suffolk Planning Commission Chairman David Calone, a venture capitalist, said he wasn't anywhere close to deciding. Suffolk County Legislator Kara Hahn has met with the DCCC, but says she's focusing on her current job. Former Brookhaven Supervisor Mark Lesko, who also heads a research non-profit, hasn't said anything about his plans. Obama only won this affluent district by 0.5 percent in 2012.
10:58 AM PT (Jeff Singer): NY-11: Republican Staten Island District Attorney Daniel Donovan has looked like the easy favorite in this May 5 special election for a long time, but that's not stopping him from beginning his ad campaign. Donovan's 60-second spot touts his humble origins and notes that too many people are struggling to get by.
11:16 AM PT (Jeff Singer): IL-08: On Monday, Democratic state Sen. Tom Cullerton formed an exploratory committee in preparation for a run for Senate candidate Tammy Duckworth's seat. Cullerton isn't officially in yet but he's already unveiled endorsements, so it's probably only a matter of time.
Cullerton comes from a powerful political family and is a close labor ally, but he won't have a clear path to the general election. Businessman Raja Krishnamoorthi is already running, and he's been picking up endorsements from activists and elected officials, while state Sen. Mike Noland has also formed an exploratory committee. Republican veteran Larry Kaifesh, who lost to Duckworth 56-44 last year, sounds interested in another go, but he won't have an easy time in this 57-41 Obama Chicagoland seat.
11:37 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Philadelphia Mayor: The Democratic primary ad war has mostly been fought by outside groups, but state Sen. Anthony Hardy Williams' campaign is out with their second spot. Williams has attracted his share of opposition for his support for charter schools, but he uses his commercial to tout how he worked to steer $250 million toward public schools.
11:40 AM PT (Jeff Singer): FL-Sen: Jolly did not rule out a Senate bid when asked, with his camp only saying that "[w]e will not be commenting until some time after Senator Marco Rubio’s announcement."
2:31 PM PT: IN-Gov: Republican Gov. Mike Pence sure ham-handled the debacle over Indiana's so-called "Religious Freedom Restoration Act," and now new polling shows he's managed to hurt his standing with voters, at least for the moment. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, on behalf of the gay rights group Human Rights Campaign, finds Pence in a 47-47 tie with former state House Speaker John Gregg, the Democrat most likely to take him on next year. Pence also sports a weak 39-38 favorability rating; as HRC notes, some GOP polling earlier this year had him in the 60s. (Despite what the memo might indicate, the ballot test was asked first, before any questions about RFRA.)
Gregg came unexpectedly close to thwarting Pence when the governorship was open in 2012, losing by just 3 points despite being badly outspent in a red state. But Gregg was also aided by Richard Mourdock's implosion in that year's Senate race—you might call it a gift from god—and that's something he just wouldn't be able to count on again. Another big question is whether Pence has done himself lasting damage, or if this will all fade soon enough. If not, though, Gregg (or another Democrat) might find himself with a nice lever to pry this race open.
3:00 PM PT: IL-Sen: Sen. Mark Kirk of Illinois is one of the most vulnerable Republicans seeking re-election next year, so why on earth is he making jaw-dropping comments like the ones highlighted by the Huffington Post?
I want to make sure we have elected people constantly looking at helping the African-American community. With this state and all of its resources, we could sponsor a whole new class of potential innovators like George Washington Carver and eventually have a class of African-American billionaires. That would really adjust income differentials and make the diversity and outcome of the state much better so that the black community is not the one we drive faster through.
What can we possibly even say? It's
not the first time Kirk's said something intemperate this year that he'll have to walk back, and yet he's supposedly one of the more "moderate" members of his party. Well, if he wants to keep spewing offensive garbage, that'll only make Tammy Duckworth's job easier.
3:01 PM PT (Jeff Singer): FL-Sen: Sources close to DeSantis tell Roll Call that he's running, and will announce no later than Tuesday. Meanwhile, Rooney confirmed that he's meeting with the NRSC on Thursday about a potential run. Florida Republicans also say that Rep. Dennis Ross is looking at running, though Ross hasn't said anything himself.
3:18 PM PT (Jeff Singer): 1Q Fundraising:
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NC-Sen:
Richard Burr (R-inc): $1.8 million raised, $2.4 million cash-on-hand
• AZ-02: Martha McSally (R-inc): $640,000 raised, $800,000 cash-on-hand
• AZ-09: Kyrsten Sinema (D-inc): $450,000 raised, $600,000 cash-on-hand
• ME-02: Bruce Poliquin (R-inc): $700,000 raised; Emily Cain (D): $136,000 raised
3:25 PM PT (Jeff Singer): FL-Sen: Wealthy former state Senate President Don Gaetz also tells Roll Call he's considering.