Donald Trump is the clear frontrunner in the GOP Primaries, but he will barely make it into the convention with a majority of delegates, if my math is accurate. From Real Clear Politics, here is the current delegate math:
Trump 736
Cruz 463
Rubio 171
Kasich 143
While Trump does not have the majority of delegates, Wisconsin and North Dakota will be Cruz’s high water mark — even if he wins both of those (possible & likely), very friendly territory is coming up for The Donald.
Let’s suppose Trump takes most or all of the delegates in the following states:
New York (his home state) (95), Connecticut (28), Delaware (16), Maryland (38), Pennsylvania (71).
Let’s say (based on Real Clear Politics polling) that Trump takes 10, Cruz 7, and Kasich 2 of Rhode Island’s votes.
Then, Trump takes Indiana and its 57 delegates.
Now, we have friendlier territory for Cruz with Kasich playing spoiler along the way:
West Virginia — Trump 17, Cruz 12, Kasich 5;
Oregon — Cruz 17, Trump 11, Kasich 2;
Washington — Cruz 27, Trump 13, Kasich 4.
That takes us to Armageddon, where the last five states weigh in. Trump is holding a narrow but firm lead over Cruz in what little polling I have seen from California; the Republicans there, like Arizona, are concerned about the immigration issue, which gives him an advantage. Arizona gives a hint as to what will transpire there. California is not strictly winner take all, but the winner takes 13 at large delegates, with the rest divided proportionally:
Trump 93, Cruz 69, Kasich 20.
Montana (27), New Mexico (24), and South Dakota (29) are all Western states which are friendly to Cruz, with New Mexico being in his backyard. So we will give those to him. Finally, we give New Jersey and its 51 delegates to Trump, as it is in his backyard.
So, at the end of my inexact math, we have:
Trump 1236
Cruz 781
Kasich 176
Rubio 171
Along with 100 delegates that have yet to be divvied up.
But suppose Kasich crashes the party with wins in Indiana (backyard) and/or PA (where one recent poll put him at 30%); then, a brokered convention is much more likely. So, Trump has to run the table in California, Pennsylvania, and Indiana in order to have a reasonably certain chance of winning on the first ballot.
In the second round, there has been a lot of buzz on Twitter about Cruz invoking Rule 40 to push Kasich and Rubio out of the running. Rubio, despite “suspending” his campaign, has not released his delegates and doesn’t plan to. Rule 40 states that candidates have to have a majority of delegates in eight different states — hence Cruz’s common refrain on the trail that he is the only candidate who has beaten Trump in multiple states. But I don’t see Kasich’s and Rubio’s delegates going along with that, and I don’t see Trump’s delegates doing that if a second ballot would hand the nomination to Cruz. That rule was passed in 2012 to shut Ron Paul out of the process, but the delegates can change the rules at anytime.
Here is where the math gets interesting — the problem is that Cruz, despite all his calls and all his sucking up to his previous opponents, is having trouble uniting the Stop Trump faction. His problem is that he called Mitch McConnell a liar to his face, which means that gridlock would be worse under a Cruz administration. While Kasich and Rubio would do the best in a general election against Hillary or Bernie, neither one of them passes the GOP purity contest. Kasich expanded Obamacare in Ohio, which was best for the common good, but a dealbreaker for many Republicans, which is why he has never caught fire. And many Republicans have not forgiven Rubio for what they see as a basic betrayal for working on Comprehensive Immigration Reform; for instance, Phyllis Schlafly oozed contempt for Rubio as she took a podium with Donald Trump in St. Louis and endorsed him.
Next comes Mitt Romney, who has already filed the paperwork to run as a candidate with the FEC. He has made calls for Rubio in Florida, for Kasich in Ohio, and for Cruz in Utah and elsewhere, trying to scramble the convention and put himself forth. But Romney will be a dealbreaker for the Trump crowd. Trump and his supporters regard Romney as a loser and choke artist, reasoning that 2012 was his to win and he lost it. And enough Cruz supporters will vote against Romney to deny him the nomination for a simple reason — Cruz represents the fundamentalist wing of the GOP, many of whom regard Mormonism as a non-Christian cult. This affected the 2012 election more than many realize; for instance, the Christian Research Institute, which regards Mormonism as a non-Christian cult, reported getting many calls from fundies seeking permission to vote for a Mormon during that cycle. And Trump has repeatedly threatened to bolt for a third party if a candidate who is not acceptable to him is nominated.
That brings up Paul Ryan. Despite his protestations to the contrary, Ryan would be very much interested in being the GOP standardbearer — if the party unites behind him. When he got elected as House Speaker, he was the one candidate who got the support of both the Main Street wing along with the Tea Party wing. He didn’t throw his hat in the ring — he waited for all the brawling factions to come to him and ask him to take over. And while there have been some rumblings from the Tea Party wing over Ryan’s acceptance of the budget and refusing to hold the country hostage, he and Trump respect each other. Despite Ryan twice calling out Trump during the election cycle, Ryan is one of the few Republicans who Trump won’t attack. He is one of the few people who can get Trump to listen. Ryan is doing the same thing with the GOP Presidential Primary — he is not throwing his hat in the ring and coming to the GOP — he is waiting for the GOP to come to him. Machiavelli in action.
Ryan is acceptable to the Main Street wing because he is committed to the causes of austerity. He is acceptable to the moderate wing because of all his talk of ending poverty “proves” to that wing that he is really the “compassionate conservative” they thought they were getting with George Bush. He is totally committed to the causes of forced pregnancy and shoving gays back into the closet, which means he is acceptable to the fundamentalist wing. And he is a darling of the Hate Radio wing, which the Tea Party folks listen to. We could see a deal where Trump throws his support to Ryan in return for Ryan ditching the TPP and slapping massive tariffs on China once he enters the White House — and leave the gravy train for the Military Industrial Complex intact, which will relieve the rest of the GOP.
If Donald Trump were to win the primary, he would be the easiest to beat; both Hillary or Bernie would beat him. But if Ryan were to get it, it would be a much more competitive contest, especially if Hillary were to win the Democratic side. This is because a lot of people do not regard Hillary as trustworthy. On the flip side, Hillary starts with the same demographic advantages that Obama carried to the White House in 2008 and 2012, and those advantages have grown since then. The real challenge for Hillary would be overcoming her high negatives and turning out the same people who gave Obama the victory.