Let’s take stock of what happened yesterday, and what the numbers are as of right now, and moving forward.
Let’s start with delegates:
As far as pledged delegates are concerned, Hillary is projected to get 2,196 pledged delegates to Bernie’s 1,819. That would give Hillary a pledged delegate margin of 377. That is by far the largest delegate margin Hillary has had all season. The highest prior margin was 314 after Hillary won Super Tuesday II on March 15.
And, in a current update the delegate margin has grown to 291 as of now.
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1. Hillary wins California in an apparent rout, current number with 73% in is 56% to 43%, a 13% margin.
NY Times: Hillary Clinton Wins California, Bolstering Claim to Nomination
The Associated Press reported early Wednesday that Mrs. Clinton had won California, but Mr. Sanders gave no indication that he would yield, insisting earlier that he would continue his campaign and barely acknowledging her achievement.
The numbers (they are still counting) are a lot better for Hillary in California than any poll had predicted. This was a complete rout.
As you can see, Hillary over performed her polling average in California by a full 11%. Instead of the aggregated 2% consensus she got 13% instead from California. Mind you, Bernie had camped out in California, had been in the state for 14 straight days without venturing anywhere else, and this rout happened.
At stake in California were 475 delegates. Hillary is expected to gain about 73 net delegates out of California alone.
2. Hillary wins New Jersey by more than a rout, an earthquake landslide.
Still counting the last few votes, but the NJ result is clear. 63% to 37%, a 26% margin.
New Jersey’s 27% margin has also come as a bit of a surprise. The polling was all over the place.
Polling was off by over 6%. It must be said, though, that the CBSNews/Yougov poll coming in at 27% hit it right on the nose, while Quinnipiac was off by a full 13%. of course, that’s Quinnipiac for you, they had under valued Hillary’s appeal all season long.
Hillary Clinton wins New Jersey
Hillary Clinton will win the New Jersey Democratic primary, CNN is projecting. With 98 percent of precincts reporting, Clinton is leading with 63 percent of the vote compared to Bernie Sanders with 37 percent. Heading into Tuesday's primaries, Clinton has 1,812 pledged delegates, and after interviews with superdelegates, The Associated Pressreported on Monday night she has the necessary 2,383 delegates to be called the presumptive Democratic nominee. Catherine Garcia
3. Hillary wins New Mexico
The margin in NM was 3%. This result was a tad closer than might have been expected, but neither candidate campaigned in the state. It was all about California and New Jersey. Nobody bothered to poll the state since February. But, another win notched by Team Hillary, which had a tremendous night.
Hillary Clinton Nabs Victory In New Mexico Primary
Hillary Clinton won the Democratic primary in New Mexico on Tuesday, bestingBernie Sanders in a contest where she had held a substantial polling lead for months.
Multiple networks called the race for Clinton shortly after polls closed in the state.
The Sanders campaign had focused its attention in recent weeks almost exclusively on delegate-rich California, by far the biggest prize among the six states in play on Tuesday. The independent Vermont senator has been popular with young and white voters, while Clinton has outpaced him with older and black voters. Sanders has been competitive among Latino voters, particularly younger Latinos. However, he has been unable to close the deal in states with significant Latino populations, including Florida, Arizona, Texas and Nevada.
4. Hillary wins South Dakota in a surprise
That wasn’t supposed to happen. SD is, demographically, Bernie territory. Yet, Hillary took the state from him, rounding off a very, very good evening for her.
Bernie won Montana and North Dakota, but Montana was a lot closer than anyone had predicted. He did earn a solid win in North Dakota, however.
5. How did the candidates do relative to their targets?
Per 538 — Ieft bracket numbers are the current result, right numbers are the targets
As of right now (delegate numbers are still in flux, but should proportionally hold) Hillary has strongly outperformed her relative target in California by almost 10%. Hillary also exceeded her targets in Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota. She met her target in New Mexico and slightly under performed her target in North Dakota (but that’s a very low delegate state).
Bernie under performed targets in California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota, slightly outperformed in North Dakota.
One more to go, DC on Tuesday. With a total delegate number of 20 DC is not that significant at this point, but it is the last contest on the schedule. For reference, 538 shows as Hillary’s target for DC as 12, and Bernie’s as 8.