Lots of work to be done, never take anything for granted, and be sure to work your hearts out to get the vote out, so we maximize the good that comes our way this November.
But, if history is any guide, things are looking good for the good guys in November, using the sitting President’s approval rating as the major defining measuring stick on who will win the Presidency.
The 2016 election is already decided. History says Hillary Clinton wins.
If history is any guide, the outcome of this year’s presidential election has already been decided.
With the exception of 2000, the result of every presidential election since, and including, 1980 has been determined before the general election even officially began. In fact, most of these elections were effectively decided by this point in the cycle.
All but one presidential elections (Gore’s) were basically decided by June of that year.
There is no reason to think that this year, as crazy as it has been, will be different. Spoiler alert: Hillary Clinton wins.
The single best predictor of the electoral outcome is the job approval of the incumbent president — even one who’s not on the ballot. In four of the five elections since 1980 when the incumbent president’s job approval was at or above 50 percent, that party held the White House. The outlier was 2000, when President Bill Clinton enjoyed a 57 percent job approval rating in October yet Al Gore “lost” to George W. Bush.
President Obama’s job approval rating now sits above 50 percent.
Gore turned his back on the highly popular President at the time, and paid the price. A grave mistake. But, this is the one outlier out of all the presidential races we have seen since, and including, 1980.
Significant structural advantages have also favored Democrats since 1992. The party’s candidate has carried 18 states plus the District of Columbia — totaling 242 electoral votes — in every election since 1992. Now New Mexico and its five electoral votes, which Bush won in 2004, are considered safely Democratic. If those states remain solid for Clinton, that leaves her only 23 votes short of the 270 necessary for victory.
There is no reason to believe Trump, of all people, will win states that have been in the Democratic column for 6 cycles. And, it looks more and more certain that both Florida and Virginia are going to go Democratic this year, given all the polling we have seen from those two states.
Demographic trends since 1992 only reinforce this advantage for Democrats. In addition, Clinton enjoys a significant financial and organizational advantage over presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump. In the past month, the Clinton campaign has run $23 million worth of ads in eight swing states without any time purchased by the Trump campaign to counter her attacks. Clinton has also maintained a stable campaign team at the top while building a national campaign staff of about 700 people. The Trump campaign, on the other hand, has had constant leadership turmoil with a staff of fewer than 100 people.
Americans view their vote for president differently than for any other office. Ultimately, this is a decision as much emotional and instinctual as it is intellectual. And once voters have made that choice, it is very difficult to dislodge.
Hillary and Priorities USA, her main Super PAC, are defining Trump to the American people via a ton of advertising right now. And Trump has no money to hit back in any way. That is a very significant development and factor, especially in so-called swing states.
Voters have gotten to know Trump over the past year. They have pretty much made up their minds about how they feel. It is very unlikely anything that happens in the remaining 131 days of this campaign is going to change that.
Only 131 days to go, people. We have every reason to be strongly confident about the November election, but we have to get voters to come out in massive numbers, not just to insure Trump won’t be President, but to help turn the Senate and House our way. GOTV is of utmost importance to maximize our win in November.