There are a couple of ways to approach a campaign. You can be pollyannaish and cherry pick every poll that shows Clinton up 10% nationally and start celebrating the victory to come, or you can cherry pick polls that show we’re all about to rush the Canadian boarder because we didn’t work hard enough to stop Donald Trump from getting elected. I have virtually no confidence in the American voter, so I tend to lean toward the latter.
A new Quinnipiac poll is out and we should be worried enough to realize we ALL had better get out now and work hard to stop the catastrophe that is forming.
FL OH PA
Clinton 36% 36% 34%
Trump 41 37 40
Johnson 7 7 9
Stein 4 6 3
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 3
DK/NA 8 9 8
Other polls have shown Clinton losing in Iowa, a very small lead in Nevada, and a moderate lead in Colorado. If the race ends like this on election day, it’s President Trump!
Quinnipiac has not been the greatest poll this year, but it hasn’t been crazy off the mark either.
There’s been a lot of waving some really good looking national polls lately, which to me might build a mood of complacency. I just want to balance it out to show not only is this election not in the bag, Clinton could easily lose this election.
Propaganda works!! The right wing propaganda machine is extremely powerful and very effective. I believe this poll reflects the FBI director’s very unusual negative political comments about Clinton’s emails, the McCarthy like witch-hunt of the Republican congressional committee, and most importantly the pathetic scandal seeking media coverage.
If this poll is accurate, it’s worrisome for another reason. Clinton and her Super Pac have been running ads in these 3 swing states, and they appear to be having no effect.
This race is dangerously close and we all have to get out and do whatever we can to save this country from a Trump presidency, a Trump/GOP Supreme Court, and the continuing Trump/GOP congress.
Let me emphasize that this isn’t panic time, polls will go up and down from now to the election, it’s just an effort to squelch some of the complacency that may be developing because of a few good polls.
UPDATE From Sam Wang at Princeton
Yesterday the electoral vote estimator and the Presidential Meta-Margin finally moved – sharply, by 0.8% toward Donald Trump. This was caused by a string of four Florida polls favorable to him: two partisan pollsters plus Gravis and Quinnipiac. If this shift is real, it looks like it happened within a few days of June 25th. What would be the cause of that? Waiting to see whether it’s lasting.
UPDATE: From 538