NYT's Upshot doers an analysis of all the Major Presidential Forecasts… Including our own DK
We are all anxious withh Pollitis and Gorification of the election, so It is usefull to read the what the data is really showing, and to see if the Hillary Campaign is responding.
For the first:
Here’s one way to think about the race: Three weeks ago, a Clinton loss was about as likely as a missed 35-yard field-goal attempt in the N.F.L. Today, circumstances have moved that kick 10 yards farther from the goal line.
(And here’s something for those of you yelling, “Not another sports analogy!” Mr. Trump’s chances of winning are roughly equal to the chance of drawing two consecutive cards of the same suit.)
Well for someone who doesn't gamble and vé Fútbol, the anaolgies went almsot over my head… I did have lot's of stats in med school and grad school… so the card things not so abstract. In plain words we are where we were before the convention.
But there are differences. The PredictWise numbers, for example, tend to be more certain about the outcome in both directions — giving Mrs. Clinton zero chance of picking off a conventionally red state like Texas, Alaska or South Carolina, and giving Mr. Trump zero chance of shuffling the electoral map and capturing a small blue state like Rhode Island or Maine.
The extent to which the lines move together shows how correlated the states are to one another. In some models, like FiveThirtyEight’s, the states are very correlated; in others, like the Princeton Election Consortium, they are much less so. The Upshot’s model lies somewhere between.
IN general , there seems not seems to be data to suggest a huge realignment of states… states are following their same patterns. This has happened for the last 7 elections or so.
The Daily Kos model foresees a more narrow range of plausible outcomes. The FiveThirtyEight model is centered in about the same place as our model is, but is shorter and flatter than ours, leading to a slightly lower chance of victory for Mrs. Clinton
What this tells me is… we are in a good place, but we have shown that we could be in a much better one with the right targeted message… Trump is playing the news cycle like a puppeteer… and we need to fight that PLUS engage those third party drifters. This latter idea is talked about in another NYT article :
With Mrs. Clinton enduring one of the rockiest stretches of her second bid for the presidency, her campaign and affiliated Democratic groups are shifting their focus to those voters, many of them millennials, who recoil at Mr. Trump, her Republican opponent, but now favor the Libertarian nominee, Gary Johnson, or the Green Party candidate, Jill Stein.
While still optimistic that the race will turn decisively back in Mrs. Clinton’s favor after the debates, leading Democrats have been alarmed by the drift of young voters toward the third-party candidates.
We are a reality based community and we must face this fact… I do agree with the campaign that the race will “untighten” after the first debates, we shouldn't take any vote for granted and work like you’re 20 points behind. The good thing with having Big Data and analysis is that you can do something about ti before exit polls of election day tell you where things went wrong.
Priorities USA will be launching a targeted campaign to those millenials who can't see themselves voting for Trump but are drifting towards Johnson or Stein.
Speaking of “Gored” …
Mrs. Clinton may also get an assist from one Democrat who has been largely quiet about the race, but can testify to the importance of resisting the third-party temptation: former Vice President Al Gore. Her staff has had conversations with aides to Mr. Gore about bringing him onto the campaign trail to emphasize the importance of supporting Mrs. Clinton if they want to make progress on combating climate change.
“I can assure you from personal experience that every vote counts,” Mr. Gore wrote in an email to The New York Times on Thursday, after a new CBS/New York Times poll showed Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump virtually tied. “The stakes are high for so many Americans. So I will vote for Hillary Clinton and I strongly encourage others to vote for her as well.”
Now, a lot has changed since 2000, specially the perception who Al Gore is and what he has done. So I applaud the campaign for this. Warren and Sanders are going to be stumping in Ohio and Hillary is back to Florida. She has opened 54 office in OH and her message has emphasized what she will do for her constituents, also aiming Blue collar voters.
What is striking is that Mr. Johnson, despite being a former Republican governor who supports limited government, appears to take just as many votes from Mrs. Clinton as he does from Mr. Trump. When asked to choose between the two major party nominees, 23 percent of Mr. Johnson’s supporters said they would back Mrs. Clinton while 20 percent said they would favor Mr. Trump.
This has to be changed and targeted… people should really know who Johnson is… he does have a track record to look at. There is an amazing disinformation regarding Hillary's biography… yes her REAL biography and the campaign needs to get that out in force.
“It’s still shocking to them how little people know about her,” said William M. Daley, a commerce secretary for President Bill Clinton, recalling a conversation with a Democratic strategist who was stunned by a focus group that indicated voters did not know about her longstanding efforts to expand access to health insurance. “It’s a big problem for her.”
Mrs. Clinton’s aides indicate that in addition to her speeches, they will broadcast more positive commercials highlighting her past efforts on health care and her current proposals to lift wages and create jobs.
Let's do it!!!
¡Vamos!