In the 538 projected electoral Map today, Nate Silver’s blog demonstrates a ghastly reality: Trump has a clear path to electoral college (EC) victory (projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...; fivethirtyeight.com/...)
In this projection, Trump holds all Romney states except for Virginia, Iowa and Ohio. Florida — which appears to be in a dead heat right now — is the key.
Iowa and Ohio are trending medium-strongly Trump. Add 24 electoral votes to Romney’s 206 for 230. If Trump wins Florida’s dead-heat-even 29 electoral votes that brings the total to 259, which takes Trumps total to within 11 votes of a win in the EC.
Nevada’s 6 electoral votes are a virtual toss up too; Give Nevada (6) to Trump and Maine’s 2nd (1 EC vote) and he is at 266. Clinton is up by 4 electoral votes: A razor thin margin.
Four electoral votes away from a lunatic as president. Where could those 4 votes lay? New Hampshire (4) alone do it. New Mexico’s 5 or Colorado’s 9 EC votes elects a President Trump.
It is spine-chillingly possible right now to see Trump somehow ram through a path to 270 EC votes. Clinton has to, absolutely needs to, assure New Mexico and Colorado stay blue. Then the Clinton campaign needs vital last stands in Florida and Nevada. Minimum. Iowa and Ohio and North Carolina would be frosting.
This is way too close for comfort.