Hillary has been the choice of most Democrats in the primaries, but she doesn’t’ have much appeal for independents. That weakness is evident in a new poll out today, showing Clinton trailing trump by two points. This time it’s not from Fox News.
A Post-Primary Rally Boosts Trump, Albeit With Challenges Aplenty (POLL)
Greater voter registration among Republicans is one factor: Clinton’s 6-point lead among all adults, 48-42 percent in a general election matchup, switches to essentially a dead heat among registered voters, 46 percent for Trump, 44 percent for Clinton. Regardless, the contest has tightened considerably since March, when Clinton led among registered voters by 9 points
Fifty-eight percent of Americans call him unqualified to be president, 60 percent see him unfavorably overall, 76 percent think he doesn’t show enough respect for those he disagrees with and 64 percent say he should release his tax returns (with most feeling strongly about it).
With those reservations working against him it’s disturbing to see Trump has been able to take the lead.
Indeed, half of each candidate’s supporters are negative voters, saying they oppose the other candidate more than they support their own choice.
Remarkably, Clinton is only running evenly with Trump among 18- to 29-year-olds –- a key Sanders support group that’s looking ever-more resistant to her nomination. In March, Clinton led Trump among under-30s by 39 percentage points, 64-25 percent. Today they split 45-42 percent. It’s a group Barack Obama won by 23 points in 2012, and one that Clinton needs back.
And Americans see the Republican Party unfavorably by a 20-point margin, 36-56 percent, favorable-unfavorable. The Democratic Party, while hardly popular, does much better, 48-44 percent.
That said, Clinton’s immediate challenge is that she’s still facing a popular primary opponent, Fifty-one percent of Americans overall see Sanders favorably, 7 points better than Clinton (and +14 vs. Trump). If she clinches the nomination as anticipated, Sanders’ willingness to patch things up may be critical.
And Trump leads Clinton among independents by 13 points, a reversal from March, when she led by 9.
In one further example of the unsettled Democratic contest, 15 percent of Obama voters in 2012 now say they’d back Trump over Clinton. Just 6 percent of Mitt Romney’s supporters say they’d take Clinton over Trump.
The poll shows there’s an enthusiasm gap, with the Republicans registering more of their supporters than the Democrats have. That’s something Democrats urgently need to focus on, but Hillary’s lack of appeal to the 18-29 demographic who see her as an uninspiring candidate will make that a daunting challenge.
Hillary can’t afford to take the Liberal wing of her party for granted. Their support is essential to a Democratic victory. That’s probably why Hillary has refrained from attacking Bernie herself since May 3rd, leaving that to her surrogates (including Debbie Wasserman Schultz), and her supporters who have increased the ferocity of their attacks on Bernie over the last three weeks, (alienating some of Bernie’s supporters in the process).