Global average temperatures could pass 1.5C
( a 1.5C INCREASE in historic average global temperatures ):
“Global average temperatures could pass 1.5C above pre-industrial levels within the next decade, new projections suggest.”
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The timing of when we actually hit the 1.5C threshold will depend heavily on a natural cycle in the Pacific Ocean, the study finds, which can either dampen or accelerate global temperature rise.
The results suggest, on current trends, that warming is likely to reach 1.5C between 2026 and 2031, though it could be even earlier. This means that, with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change due to publish its special report on 1.5C in 2018, global temperature rise might arrive at that milestone just eight years later.
That doesn’t mean that 1.5C is a lost cause, other scientists tell Carbon Brief. But the most plausible way of keeping to the 1.5C limit by the end of the century is to overshoot and come back down to it afterwards
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( tampaedski's online research: Thank you.)
"The IPO is one of the least well understood of all climate indices. Its relationship to other indices, such as ENSO and PDO are still unclear. Given its long cycle periods, it may be some time before the IPO is understood to the same level of detail as other indices."
Climatology - Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO): http://climatology.co.uk/interdecadal-pacific-oscillation#.WSsA3ru6ydA.twitter
What should the IPCC's 1.5C special report focus on?
Carbon Brief asked attendees of the 1.5 degrees conference in Oxford what they thought the IPCC should focus on in its special report on 1.5C.
“At a meeting in Bangkok this week, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) agreed the outline for its proposed special report on 1.5C..”
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The report was commissioned following a specific “invitation” by the UNFCCC, after language about efforts “to pursue 1.5C” made it into the final text of the Paris Agreement.
The decision rubber stamps – with some amendments – the draft outline proposed by 85 nominated experts (pdf) at an IPCC meeting (pdf) in Geneva in August this year.
At a recent conference on “1.5 degrees: Meeting the challenges of the Paris Agreement” organised by the Environmental Change Institute, Carbon Brief asked a number of delegates for their thoughts on the most important topics the 1.5C report should cover.
Below is a compilation of their responses. The video features, in order of appearance:
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Trajectories toward the 1.5°C Paris target: Modulation
by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
Benjamin J. Henley, Andrew D. King
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“A recent modelling study suggests that the IPO will soon shift – or has already shifted – into its positive phase, bringing
‘larger rates of global warming over the 2013–2022 period.’ “
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Robert McSweeney covers climate science at Carbon Brief. He holds an MEng in mechanical engineering from the University of Warwick and an MSc in climate change from the University of East Anglia. He previously spent eight years working on climate change projects at the consultancy firm Atkins. Follow him on Twitter @rtmcswee.
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Axios scoop: Trump tells confidants U.S. will quit Paris climate deal
(By Pakalolo )