One of the most important aspects in negotiating, is understanding your position and what you can and cannot achieve. You have to know what’s actually on the table for negotiation, what your bargaining range is, and most importantly, identify what you have as actual leverage and how much that leverage is worth. And finally, you have to know who the decision maker is.
In essence, you have to know your place. You have to deal in reality and what is actually capable of happening. If you’re not equal to who you’re negotiating with, or you don’t have the same leverage, then you’re not going to be able to take control of the bargaining; you have to take what you can and not be foolish or intractable. That’s reality.
The main reason I’m writing this diary, is because a lot of people here apparently don’t quite seem to understand (or maybe even care) what the reality is now, in terms of where the Democratic Senators and House members are, in terms of this Government Shutdown negotiation. And so many people are quick to deride the deal that’s been cast as “capitulation” or “not having a spine.”
So, to mirror a comment I made earlier, I’m going to bust the magical, uninformed thinking that is not only ridiculous, but also hopelessly sets up expectations that are literally impossible to have implemented right now.
I’m going to be real with some folks here that apparently aren’t willing face the reality of where we are right now. I’m going to drop a shocking truth bomb right here…
In November 2016, the Democratic Party lost the election. We lost the Presidency, the Supreme Court, and the Senate.
That happened. Nothing can change that or erase that.
As a consequence, since January 2017, this is a now Republican majority House, Senate and Presidency. What this means, is that a conservative, Republican legislation and governance agenda will be implemented. Yes, Trump is an incompetent hack. Yes, Republicans fail at governing. But, the Republican Party has all 3 branches; it’s foolish to expect that by the law of averages, something of theirs would not happen.
The only chance that governing power will be removed from their hands is the re-election date for Senate Repubs and House members in 2018.
So all these expectations that somehow, through “resistance” and just “standing up”, Democrats, a minority party in both chambers, would somehow be able to obstruct ALL the consequences of a Trump presidency, come hell-or-high-water, are not only ridiculous but remove the consequence of elections in the first place.
That’s not how governance works.
Elections have consequences.
Now Republicans are in control and are doing Republicans things.
Yeah, the government shutdown was rightfully blamed on Trump and the far-right Republicans who hate brown people and want to close the border, build a wall, and deport everybody, especially the DREAMers.
But facts also matter.
The votes required to pass a CR in the Senate are 60.
That means, if this government shutdown continued any longer, at some point, the focus on the reason for any lack of progress in negotiations would turn squarely towards the minority party that is being intractable; the longer a government shutdown lasts, the harder the public turns on the minority party that refuses to budge.
The minority party loses whatever leverage they have and then the majority comes out stronger, offers nothing, and then the shutdown ends.
Look at the Government Shutdown of 2013. That lasted 16 days and what did Repubs get?
Nothing. Barrack Obama gave them nothing, and they conceded with their tail between their legs.
The fact of the matter here is, Dems had no leverage that was so powerful, so overwhelming, they could wait out an entire government shutdown for a week let alone a year. It’d look ridiculously dysfunctional and insane. Democrats are the party for functional Government. Shutting down the government long term is part of the Republican brand. Co-opting that strategy would ruin us, especially with us being the minority party.
And tactically speaking, the most relevant moment during a government shutdown in terms of negotiations, is right after it happens. The longer it goes on, the less likely concessions from the majority are to happen. And that’s what the Senate Democrats got just now, a concession from Repub.
The deal senate Democratic members is good. For one, CHIP is no longer a hostage. CHIP was the hostage that allowed Republicans to poison pill any legislation they wanted and hide the real issue that’s behind this shutdown.
Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals.
CHIP lasts for 6 years now and is no longer on the bargaining table. The public focus and awareness of why the shutdown happened and what Dems are fighting for, is where it belongs. If Senate Dems had turned that offer down from their fellow Repub colleagues, it would look extremely nonsensical to the public and media and Dems would appear to be as obstructionist as Repubs were when Obama had to deal with Ted Cruz and his ride-or-die allies in the House and Senate.
You can’t claim that the shutdown rests completely on Trump and Repubs failure to govern then refuse to even them give them the chance to govern. Because it’s on record that the House CR didn’t have 50 votes to pass the senate. And all Mitch asked for was time. Time to negotiate a fix for DACA and was willing to let go CHIP for it.
That’s not only a fair deal, that’s completely advantageous to Democrats.
Because now, the ball (DACA and Immigration) is now entirely in the Republicans’ court. Front and center. The senate passed the CR that funds CHIP for 6 years, and opens the Government for 3 weeks.
If the House balks at that, then the Republicans own this shutdown front and center. Dems showed themselves willing to govern and negotiate. Repubs refused to even open the government to fix the mess they started.
Most likely the House will pass the CR and Trump will sign it. Then, Republicans have 3 weeks from now to create a Continuing Resolution that will pass the Senate.
If the House repeats the same CR Bill that fell out of the dirty ass crack of the Trump White House, not only will they look foolishly incompetent, but it’ll play exactly to the same argument that was brought up. Which is Republicans and Trump are unabashedly racist and hate immigrants.
They would have tanked any chance of governing and being stewards of the government, all for a chance to be immigrant hardliners and racists. And that would put Mitch in a sorrier situation.
He’d have no leverage to twist Democratic senator arms (since CHIP would be gone) and there would be no cover for the CR from the House. The CR from the House couldn’t even get 50 votes. How would Mitch be able to castigate Democratic Senators for help when he couldn't even get his whole caucus to vote for the bill?
Then, this whole shutdown showdown would become a real game of chicken. If Republicans co-sign on a CR that basically goes full White Nationalist and anti-immigrant, they’re done. Trump will have completely destroyed them. And from there, the conservadems in the Senate would go and vote for the bill leaving the majority of Senate Dems safe and able to ride a blue wave to remove the Repubs and hopefully reverse what happened.
But until that time comes, Dems have to give Repubs chance to keep the government open. Because they’re the ones with the responsibility to do it.
However, here’s the sad fact no one seems to want to admit.
DACA and DREAMers were at risk for deportation the moment we found out Trump won the election of 2016. Everything was in danger. They were on borrowed time since then. Why? Because this is a consequence of Republicans being in control. To think or truly believe that a minority party, that does not have a single branch of government under its control, could somehow obstruct or keep the right-wing administration from advancing its agenda, is not just naive but speaks to a fundamental misunderstanding of how our government works in the first place.
Elections have consequences.
That’s why who wins is so important.
Because this sad state of affairs is what happens. People pay and people suffer.
There was no way a minority party can completely shield everybody from the natural consequences of what happens when the majority party has their time in the driver seat.
Expecting that much from a minority party, then becoming upset that they couldn't deliver is childish and speaks to a severe misplacement of expectations. And then vowing not to help elect Dems in the midterms over it, is the height of foolishness. Because it absolves the Republicans from the responsibility of what they’ve done. Democrats didn’t unilaterally end DACA. Trump and Jeff Sessions did. And Dems didn’t write the shit-sandwich CR Bill that offered no fix to DACA and attempted to dismantle legal immigration to this country. Trump and the Republican House did.
So don’t get it twisted and somehow make the Republican ownership of this diluted or some “both-sides” bullshit.
Right now, this is as good as it gets. Repub in the Senate and even Repubs in the House are talking about how Trump doesn’t know what he wants, and how he keeps moving the goal posts. The focus is on Republicans to strike a deal that’s reasonable and not a hard-right wet dream.
So no, this isn’t a capitulation. The Dems did the best they could with what they had and came out pretty successful.
But I guess if you somehow expect Dems to make miracles like they’re the majority party and in control, then yeah. Sure, this is total disappointment.