CA-Gov, CA-Sen: SurveyUSA takes a look at the very crowded top-two June primaries. They give Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom the lead with 22 percent of the vote in the race for governor, while Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa edges GOP businessman John Cox 14-11 for second place. In the Senate race, Democratic incumbent Dianne Feinstein leads with 31 percent, while Some Dude Republican Stephen Schrader is in second with 6; three other candidates, including Democratic state Sen. Kevin de Leon, take 5 each.
There are two caveats about this poll. The first is that this poll likely oversampled Hispanic voters. As California political consultant Paul Mitchell notes, Hispanics made up 12 percent of the electorate in the 2014 primary, but they make up 28 percent of this sample. Apathy towards Trump and some competitive statewide races likely will give us a very different primary electorate this year than we had for the low-wattage 2014 contests, but it probably won't be that different. This survey has Villaraigosa leading Newsom with Latinos 25-18, so he may be doing a bit better here than he really is.
The other thing to note is that SurveyUSA gave respondents a list of 20 candidates for governor to choose from and 17 Senate contenders. While this does accurately reflect how long voters' actual ballots will be, they didn't identify the candidates by anything except their name and party. As we've discussed before, candidates in California can choose a three-word description, known as the ballot designation, that appears below their name and party on the ballot. In very crowded contests like these, that ballot designation can make a big difference for voters who are trying to sort through all the candidates.
This might help explain why de Leon is polling so poorly here. He will be identified as a "California Senator" on the ballot, which could help him stand out from the numerous other Feinstein opponents. However, he's just one of the crowd in the SurveyUSA poll.
Speaking of de Leon's title, there's one other thing to know. He was the leader of the state Senate until last week, when Toni Atkins was sworn in as president pro tempore. It's customary in California for new legislative leaders to take over in the spring rather than after the fall elections, and De Leon will remain a member of the state Senate until the end of the year.