The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● OH Redistricting: On Friday, a federal district court delivered a major win against Republican gerrymandering when it struck down Ohio's congressional map for violating the constitutional rights of Democratic voters. The court ordered legislators to devise a new map by June 14 for the 2020 elections that would be much fairer than the existing lines. If lawmakers don't pass a new map, or if the Republicans—who have total control over state government—simply pass a new replacement gerrymander, the court itself could draw its own districts.
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Unlike its longtime status as a swing state, Ohio is home to one of the most extreme GOP gerrymanders of any state in the country. These tortured lines have ensured Republican control of 12 of the state's 16 congressional seats this entire decade, even when Obama carried Ohio in 2012. By contrast, a nonpartisan map, such as the one we've drawn, likely would have seen Democrats win three or four more seats in the 2018 elections—a far more equitable distribution.
This ruling could also have major consequences for redistricting after the 2020 census, when Ohio, like every other state, was already set to draw a new map beginning with the 2022 elections. Although Ohio legislators passed a "compromise" constitutional amendment in 2018 to reform congressional redistricting in an ostensibly bipartisan manner, that supposed reform was actually a cunning Republican scheme to thwart a 2018 ballot initiative effort that was aiming to create a more fair and independent process.
Multiple analysts have demonstrated the weakness of the amendment that did pass by drawing maps that would conform to the state's new rules on the surface yet in reality would be almost as egregiously gerrymandered as the current lines. However, if Ohio is required to use fairer districts for 2020, that would set a new baseline for the 2020 map and make it harder for Republicans to get away with drawing another extreme gerrymander, since they would be subject to judicial review and additional political pressure from the public.
Unfortunately for Democrats and fair redistricting, there's a very strong chance that the partisan Republican majority on the U.S. Supreme Court will quickly block the lower court from requiring a new map and ultimately overturn its decision in response to the GOP's planned appeal. The high court has repeatedly refused to limit partisan gerrymandering, which overwhelmingly favored Republicans this decade and is poised to do so again after 2020. Experts expect the justices will uphold the practice of gerrymandering in 5-4 rulings in two key cases in Maryland and North Carolina in June.
However, there's a silver lining to this ruling, even if the U.S. Supreme Court overturns it. That's because the same evidence and principles the plaintiffs used to get the map struck down could be used to persuade Ohio's state Supreme Court to put limits on gerrymandering under the state constitution. Indeed, practically every state constitution has provisions that could invalidate gerrymandering.
Republicans hold a 5-2 majority on Ohio's Supreme Court, but Democrats have the chance to gain a 4-3 majority if they defeat two Republican incumbents who are up for election in 2020 (the contests are officially nonpartisan). While the chances the U.S. Supreme Court will uphold this ruling are slim, 2020's state Supreme Court races are a critical opportunity for Democrats and voters to enforce fairer redistricting.
Senate
● AL-Sen: There was no earthquake after all: After saying for weeks it would take a "seismic event" to get him into the race, Republican Rep. Mo Brooks definitively announced on Friday that he would not challenge Democratic Sen. Doug Jones. The temblor Brooks was hoping for, reportedly, was an endorsement from Donald Trump, or at least a pledge of neutrality from His Orange Highness, but evidently, the congressman didn't feel so much as a tremor.
Meanwhile, one Republican who is actually in the race, former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville, has once again managed to highlight his weak ties to the state he's hoping to represent in the Senate. In a new radio interview, Tuberville claimed he moved to Alabama from Florida in August of last year but nevertheless admitted to voting in the Sunshine State in the November midterms. Tuberville hadn't lived in Alabama since leaving Auburn in 2008 and even repeatedly tried to sell the home he'd owned outside of Montgomery.
House
● FL-15: Navy veteran Andrew Learned, who unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nomination in Florida's 15th District last year, kicked off a second campaign for the seat on Friday. Learned lost the primary by a 53-32 margin to attorney Kristen Carlson, who in turn lost an open-seat race to Republican Ross Spano by a relatively close 53-47 spread in this traditionally conservative central Florida district.
That represented an improvement from Trump's 53-43 win here in 2016 and was very similar to the results of 2018's races for both Senate and governor, according to one analysis. Democrats have hope that they can close the remaining gap in part because Spano has been beset by allegations of serious campaign finance improprieties, which surfaced even before he was sworn in to the new Congress.
And Learned might be joined by another familiar face: Carlson has also said she's considering another bid, though she previously said she hoped to decide by May 1, a deadline that's now come and gone.
● NC-09: On behalf of an unknown client, Democratic pollster PPP has polled the May 14 GOP primary for the do-over special election in North Carolina's 9th Congressional District, offering us our first look at the race. The most notable finding is that the frontrunner is just barely clearing the 30% mark that would allow him to avoid a runoff. Here are the results in full:
- Dan Bishop: 31 (state senator)
- Stony Rushing: 17 (Union County commissioner)
- Matthew Ridenhour: 9 (former Mecklenburg County commissioner)
- Leigh Brown: 6 (former National Association of Realtors official)
- Kathie Day: 5 (real estate agent)
- Fern Shubert: 4 (former state senator)
- Chris Anglin: 3 (2018 state Supreme court candidate)
- Stevie Rivenbark: 2 (medical device company sales manager)
- Gary Dunn: 1 (perennial candidate)
- Undecided: 21
Bishop shot to prominence (and infamy) as the author of North Carolina's notorious anti-LGBTQ "bathroom bill," known as HB2, which sparked a massive boycott of the state and was a key factor in Republican Gov. Pat McCrory's ouster in 2016. It's no surprise, though, that GOP primary voters are still committed to Bishop's brand of politics—though it's telling that there's no mention of HB2 on his campaign website.
Bishop also began the race with another advantage: Most of his state Senate district is located in the 9th Congressional District, so he already represents about 18% of the latter. Since then, he's spent far more than his rivals: New FEC reports show that, in total, Bishop's campaign has laid out over $320,000 (with at least half that sum going to TV ads), while his nearest competitor financially, Brown, has spent only $93,000.
His nearest competitor poll-wise, Rushing, has spent even less—just $37,000. However, Rushing is the only other current elected official running, and his Union County makes up more than a quarter of the 9th's population. He also has the (seemingly dubious, but apparently helpful) endorsement of Mark Harris, the Republican whose campaign's attempt to steal the election last year necessitated this re-do election.
If these results are accurate—and they hold over the final stretch of the campaign—then Bishop would square off against Democrat Dan McCready on Sept. 10. If, however, Rushing or another candidate can force a second round of voting, Sept. 10 would instead be given over to a runoff while the general election would get bumped to Nov. 5.