(h/t Yogi Berra)
Here we go again.
A Wall St Journal Article recently noted a coming shortfall in the social security trust fund and the usual suspects are out there scare-mongering to justify cutting benefits. According to the WSJ, by 2035 full benefits will not be paid.
Bullshit.
- As Yogi said, predictions are hard, especially about the future. The 2035 date is based on very pessimistic assumptions and depends on many economic variables between then and now. The WSJ would have us cut benefits or increase FICA NOW to prepare for a future shortfall that may never happen.
- The government cannot run out of money. The government can always pay full benefits. (I can send you a Greenspan and Bernanke quote on this if you want). Not paying them is a political decision.
- What would happen if the predictions come true and we had to pay benefits from the Treasury to make up a shortfall?
- Just as you don’t know if the trust fund will be depleted then, you also don’t know if a deficit will be created from funding by the Treasury (rather than the trust fund) to make it up.
- And even if a deficit is created, you don’t know it will be inflationary.
- And we have tools to fight inflation
- And the shortfall would be temporary – actuarial predictions show surpluses in the trust fund in the mid to later 21st century.
- This is a 30 year old scam by those who hated Social Security from the beginning and still hate it, to justify “fiscally responsible” cuts.
- Pure irresponsible scare tactics (which have been successful because unconscionably high percentages of people believe they won’t get social security).
If democracy survives, social security will survive.