The entire premise underlying Trump’s 2016 campaign, one that was swallowed hook, line and sinker by his base, and the same one he still regularly trots out to inflame his stable of go-to voters who might otherwise notice how none of his policies or initiatives actually work for their economic benefit, is that undocumented immigrants bring crime with them into the idyllic American “heartland.” And therefore a vote for Trump is a vote to “protect America.”
That claim, like all of Trump’s other assertions, is garbage—made up, packaged, and delivered for one reason only—to dupe fearful and ignorant Americans into giving him the power and prestige he’s spent his entire life chasing and coveting. It’s not as if this serial fraudster, who never held public office or performed one act of public service in his lifetime, suddenly, miraculously became sensitized and caring towards victims of crime in this country.
In fact, the only crimes he likely ever came into contact during his “business” career were his own.
No, he just needed a shtick—a gimmick, a hook, a routine—to sell to voters in the political arena. And he found one by going to the endless well of racism and grievance that unfortunately infects this country like no other developed Western nation.
A new Pew Research Center study, described in the New York Times, makes it clear that the vicious slanders Trump casually throws at “those people” aren’t based on reality. Immigrants, documented or not documented, are not responsible for any increase in “crime” in this country.
A lot of research has shown that there’s no causal connection between immigration and crime in the United States. But after one such study was reported on jointly by The Marshall Project and The Upshot last year, readers had one major complaint: Many argued it was unauthorized immigrants who increase crime, not immigrants over all.
An analysis derived from new data is now able to help address this question, suggesting that growth in illegal immigration does not lead to higher local crime rates.
That may make right-wing heads explode, given that their entire sense of purpose now rests on the assumption that whatever comes out of Donald Trump’s mouth must be the gospel truth. But what the data actually show is that Trump’s statements are not worth the stale air he spews, however “superior,” indignant or righteous they may make his voters feel.
No matter how many horrific anecdotes Trump thunders on about in his rallies, describing some instance of an undocumented immigrant committing a crime, there are a thousand other crimes committed by red-blooded U.S. citizens at the same time and same place that he conveniently forgets.
The Pew study uncovered zero suggestions that an influx of immigrants, documented or otherwise, acted to change the crime rate in any significant way, in an area that was studied.
[T]he Pew Research Center recently released estimates of undocumented populations sorted by metro area, which The Marshall Project has compared with local crime rates published by the F.B.I. For the first time, there is an opportunity for a broader analysis of how unauthorized immigration might have affected crime rates since 2007… A large majority of the areas recorded decreases in both violent and property crime between 2007 and 2016, consistent with a quarter-century decline in crime across the United States. The analysis found that crime went down at similar rates regardless of whether the undocumented population rose or fell. Areas with more unauthorized migration appeared to have larger drops in crime, although the difference was small and uncertain.
One rejoinder by Trump supporters is that by virtue of being undocumented, such immigrants are already “criminals” and therefore the study must be meaningless. And I suppose if you consider the misdemeanor offense of crossing the U.S. border as equal in character to the crimes of rape and murder, then there might be some nugget of logic to that type of sophistry. But we all know that isn’t what Trump is saying.
What Trump is saying, and what he tells his supporters over and over, is those undocumented immigrants, because of their ethnic origins, their foreign birth, and not coincidentally the color of their skin, are inherently “dirty” and “evil.” That by virtue of their race (for Muslims it also includes their religion) they all must have a criminal mentality that should scare the BeJesus out of white grandmas and grandpas sitting home in their rocking chairs and clicking between The Voice and Fox News. That their precious little boys and girls might be recruited into whatever God-awful gangs they swear they heard about somewhere.
But the Pew study found that to be garbage, as well. In fact, what the research shows is that undocumented immigrants actually bring benefits, not harm, to communities in this country. Because for practically all of them, they’re here to work and do those hard and dirty jobs that Americans hate.
Many studies have established that immigrants commit crimes at consistently lower rates than native-born Americans. But a common concern is whether immigrants put pressure on native-born populations in any number of ways — for instance, by increasing job competition — that could indirectly lead to more crime and other negative impacts.
According to Mr. Adelman and his team, however, the impact of undocumented immigrants is probably similar to what the research indicates about immigrants over all: They tend to bring economic and cultural benefits to their communities. They typically come to America to find work, not to commit crimes, says Yulin Yang, a member of the team.
So, some advice for Trump voters who’ve clung to this fairy tale for so long, with such fervor? Well, you can start by admitting It's not about "crime," and it's not about "jobs." It's not about either of those things.
It's about "race." That is all.
(more on the study from Aldous J Pennyfarthing, here.)