Okay, a short break from my “World Cup” series. This is an interesting article published in BBC Future.
BBC: The '3.5% Rule': How a Small Minority Can Change the World
It’s a good read. The basics are: non-violence tops violence, unity counts, and be active.
Here are some highlights:
But compelling research by Erica Chenoweth, a political scientist at Harvard University, confirms that civil disobedience is not only the moral choice; it is also the most powerful way of shaping world politics – by a long way.
Looking at hundreds of campaigns over the last century, Chenoweth found that nonviolent campaigns are twice as likely to achieve their goals as violent campaigns. And although the exact dynamics will depend on many factors, she has shown it takes around 3.5% of the population actively participating in the protests to ensure serious political change.
….
Overall, nonviolent campaigns were twice as likely to succeed as violent campaigns: they led to political change 53% of the time compared to 26% for the violent protests.
So, don’t take up arms unless all else fails. The key phrase is “actively participating”. What does that mean for us?
In Chenoweth’s data set, it was only once the nonviolent protests had achieved that 3.5% threshold of active engagement that success seemed to be guaranteed – and raising even that level of support is no mean feat. In the UK it would amount to 2.3 million people actively engaging in a movement (roughly twice the size of Birmingham, the UK’s second largest city); in the US, it would involve 11 million citizens – more than the total population of New York City.
Well, now we know. But why only 3.5%?
Regarding the “3.5% rule”, [Isabel Bramsen, who studies international conflict at the University of Copenhagen] points out that while 3.5% is a small minority, such a level of active participation probably means many more people tacitly agree with the cause.
A silent majority, indeed.
It’s a good read; I highly recommend it.
And remember, one person may not matter, but seven of every 200 do; persist, resist, and stay united!