In the upcoming election we have, thankfully, women, POC, and gay candidates running.
I often heard of surveys about how people would or would not vote for X person because of their being gay, a woman, an atheist, etc., so I thought that I would dig up the latest numbers on the topic that I could find.
Of course people who say that they would vote for X group member does not necessarily translate into reality… but I feel it is the best indicator that there is.
The following survey compared a survey of people from 2015 and 2019. Here is a report on the results.
The results show more people admitting that they would vote for candidates in 2019 than they would in 2015.
2015 |
2019 |
Change |
|
% |
% |
(pct. pts.) |
Black |
92 |
96 |
+4 |
Catholic |
93 |
95 |
+2 |
Hispanic |
91 |
95 |
+4 |
A woman |
92 |
94 |
+2 |
Jewish |
91 |
93 |
+2 |
An evangelical Christian |
73 |
80 |
+7 |
Gay or lesbian |
74 |
76 |
+2 |
Under the age of 40 |
-- |
71 |
-- |
Muslim |
60 |
66 |
+6 |
Over the age of 70 |
-- |
63 |
-- |
An atheist |
58 |
60 |
+2 |
A socialist |
47 |
47 |
0 |
A few points of interest…
- 47% of Americans would vote for a socialist
- Willingness to vote for evangelical, Muslim or atheist candidates grows
- 76% would vote for gay or lesbian candidate -- a new high
Being gay and Jewish those are the numbers that I was specifically drawn to. I find it interesting that more people would vote for a Jewish person than a self-identified evangelical christian… maybe there is some hope for America?
I find it troubling that those individuals would said that they would vote for a socialist (47 percent) is unchanged over time and is the lowest number for groups surveyed. However I am happy to see support for an Atheist candidate increasing 2 points over the time period as a hopeful sign, especially since there has been a 3x increase in people who said that they would vote for an atheist compared to the 18% Gallup recorded in its first measure on atheist candidates in 1958.
Now the above is a look at *all* voters. I also provide the numbers of self-identified Republicans..
Willingness to Vote for President of Various Backgrounds, by Party
|
Republicans |
Independents |
Democrats |
|
% Yes, would |
% Yes, would |
% Yes, would |
Black |
94 |
96 |
99 |
Catholic |
97 |
94 |
96 |
Hispanic |
92 |
97 |
97 |
A woman |
90 |
94 |
97 |
Jewish |
94 |
91 |
94 |
An evangelical Christian |
92 |
79 |
71 |
Gay or lesbian |
61 |
82 |
83 |
Under the age of 40 |
65 |
71 |
78 |
Muslim |
38 |
73 |
86 |
Over the age of 70 |
63 |
62 |
65 |
An atheist |
42 |
66 |
71 |
A socialist |
19 |
49 |
74 |
The breakdown by party identification is hardly surprising, though it is sad.
22 percent fewer of GOP folks would vote for a gay person that would Democrats.
48 percent fewer of GOP folks would vote for a Muslim than would Democrats
29 percent fewer of GOP folks would vote for an Atheist than would Democrats.
Here is the methodology for the study:
Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted April 17-30, 2019, with a random sample of 1,024 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.
Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 70% cellphone respondents and 30% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region. Landline and cellular telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods.