If you believe Kinsey and his now frowned upon methodology about 10 percent of the US population is gay/bi/lesbian/Trans/Queer (Note, for shorthand sake in the rest of the diary I will use the term gay to encompass all these orientations).
But the number, according to most studies is closer to 5 percent. About 4.5 percent of Americans self-identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgender, according to an earlier Gallup study.
But ask the average American and you find out that they estimating 24.6 percent in 2011 and 23.2 percent in 2015 is gay. The study can be found here.
Americans' Estimations of the Percentage of Gay People in the U.S.
Just your best guess, what percent of Americans today would you say are gay or lesbian?
|
May 2011 |
May 2015 |
May 2019 |
|
% |
% |
% |
Mean |
24.6 |
23.2 |
23.6 |
Less than 5% |
4 |
9 |
8 |
5% to less than 10% |
9 |
11 |
9 |
10% to less than 15% |
17 |
14 |
14 |
15% to less than 20% |
9 |
7 |
10 |
20% to 25% |
17 |
20 |
19 |
More than 25% |
35 |
33 |
35 |
GALLUP |
Now you might be surprised on who overestimates the gay population the most…well, women overestimate more than men, and younger people more so than older people, and Democrats more than Independents or Republicans.
|
Mean estimate |
|
% |
Men |
17.4 |
Women |
29.7 |
18-29 |
28.5 |
30-49 |
24.4 |
50-64 |
23.1 |
65+ |
17.5 |
Republicans |
18.3 |
Independents |
25.2 |
Democrats |
26.3 |
GALLUP, MAY 15-30, 2019 |
If you are interested in the survey methodology:
Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted May 15-30, 2019, with a random sample of 1,017 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.
Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 70% cellphone respondents and 30% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region. Landline and cellular telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods.
Why the overestimation? It could be that more media coverage of our rights has colored people’s perceptions. We are more in the news so people perceive our population to be larger than it is. Also the difference in millennials that self-identify as GLBTQ is 20 percent according to a GLAAD study so they might over apply this to all age ranges.
I wish that 25 percent of the US population was gay, though… perhaps with such increased numbers maybe I could find a date.