Several Democratic primary candidates boosted by last week’s debates are now hustling to capitalize on that enough to qualify for the next round of debates. The second debate, to be held later this month, has the same threshold as the first, but it’s going to be much tougher to get into the debates coming in September and October.
Candidates will have to hit 2% in at least four polls conducted between June 28 and August 28, and they will also have to have 130,000 unique donors, with at least 400 each from 20 different states. That means just five candidates are currently sure things: former Vice President Joe Biden, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and Sens. Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren. Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke is also well-positioned though not guaranteed to make it.
But that leaves candidates like former HUD Secretary Julián Castro and Sen. Cory Booker, both of whom had a strong first debate, struggling to make it, paying heavily for digital ads and email lists to find new donors. According to an Associated Press/Bully Pulpit Interactive analysis, “The $416,000 that Castro spent on debate-themed social media and internet ads amounted to about 37% of what he raised during the year’s first quarter.” That’s the kind of spending that affects a candidate’s ability to campaign in other ways.
Another strong debate could push Castro or Booker over the edge. The next debate could help Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand and Amy Klobuchar, or Gov. Jay Inslee. But it’s dead certain that the higher bar to get into the fall debates will effectively knock out at least some candidates—and while it’s a very good thing that candidates like Castro and Gillibrand had their chance to be heard in the first round of debates, it’s going to be a good thing to see a smaller field, with more chance for actual debate.