After a year of treading water, Trump’s national re-elect numbers in our Civiqs polling have taken a turn for the worse:
That 43% is the same mid-to-low 40s he seems to be stuck at in most national polling. But of course, this isn’t a national campaign. We don’t live in a real one-person, one-vote democracy. So how does the state-by-state breakdown look?
That’s a 288-249 Democratic victory. Under any circumstances, that’s way too narrow for comfort, especially since Florida is never a state we should ever depend on.
Competitive red-leaning states:
Pennsylvania: 45-45 (even)
Georgia: 45-44 Trump (+1)
Iowa: 46-44 Trump (+2)
North Carolina: 46-44 Trump (+2)
Arizona: 46-43 Trump (+3)
Ohio: 46-42 Trump (+4)
Alaska: 48-41 Trump (+7)
Competitive blue-leaning states:
Wisconsin: 46-45 Dem (+1)
Florida: 46-44 Dem (+2)
Maine: 47-44 Dem (+3)
Minnesota: 48-43 Dem (+5)
Michigan: 48-42 Dem (+6)
New Hampshire: 48-41 Dem (+7)
Guys, that’s your 2020 battleground right there. Who would’ve thought that Georgia would be more competitive than any states except Pennsylvania and Wisconsin? Who’d think that Pennsylvania would stay this competitive after Democrats crushed in last year’s midterm elections?
Mark my words: We won’t know who won Wisconsin for days. It’ll be the closest state of 2020. (Illinois Democrats, that’s where you need to camp out.)
While some polling has shown Texas competitive, we don’t see it, with Trump beating a generic Democrat 50-39. Meanwhile, while I’ve been on the “Ohio is a lost cause” bandwagon, this polling suggests otherwise.
Why does New Hampshire feel more competitive than Alaska, even though they are both +7 leads for their respective parties?
This is going to be a tough election, no doubt. We’re going to have to work our asses off to prevent this country from falling into a cataclysmic abyss. And as we prepare for that battle ahead, the boundaries of that battleground appear set.
The party that wins is the one that gets its voters to the polls. Period. The bigots are motivated and mobilizing. We have to be even more so than they are.