In a nutshell, the story as I read it is: British voters dislike Boris Johnson, but they dislike Jeremy Corbyn more. With another leader, Labour would have had a chance. People are just allergic to Corbynism, and this is might be the final chance it has had.
I live in the United States. What I know of British politics are bits and pieces I’ve gathered over the years from places like the Guardian. Here are some thoughts that are on my mind. I hope folks who know more about it can comment about them and tell me if I make any sense.
- Why is Corbyn that unpopular, actually? His approval poll numbers have been awful (consistently -30%–-40%) for the last two years now.
- Speculation: it’s Brexit. The idea of renegotiating EU membership or even leaving the EU was popular with the left, who didn’t like what they saw in the EU’s austerity approach to places like Greece and Spain, and considered the EU an enforcer of anti-democratic capitalism. But then the likes of Nigel Farage made the issue theirs, because they hate immigrants and because smash-everything populism was The Thing. Corbyn instructed Labour to vote for Brexit. That was a stupid move, following doctrine ahead of good sense. It propped up the far right, and his stubbornness pissed off his voters. He took a long time to finally decide to vacillate on it, which made things worse.
- Speculation: Antisemitism. Corbyn has spent an inordinate amount of time deflecting accusations of antisemitism. Some of them are specious, based on his support of Palestinian causes. Some are serious but indirect, referring to antisemitic attitudes within the party which he’s been accused of not doing enough about. But is that really an issue for the majority of British voters?
- Speculation: He’s been framed. Hillary Clinton was the poster-child for unlikability, based on nebulousness: the left suspected she was too conservative, the right suspected she was a scheming manipulator. In truth, the 2016 Democratic platform had swung unabashedly left, and the right-wing conspiracies have all turned out false. But the general dislike was there, it was kept alive by the press, and it made non-stories like the email server viable. Has Corbyn fallen into the same pit of dislike, where he could do no right anymore?
- What is “Corbynism”, anyhow? I keep encountering this word, as an insult. If it refers to the total of Corbyn’s political beliefs, they’d fall into the class of European Social Democracy, or something akin to Bernie Sanders’ beliefs. But is that what people are disavowing? Or is “Corbynism” just a term to justify people’s visceral negative reaction to him?
- Why did England not vote more for a third party, like the Liberal Democrats? Scotland, who dislikes Johnson and Corbyn no less, gave many of their votes to the SNP. Why didn’t England do likewise? Surely a minority Labour government would be preferred to an absolute rule by Johnson or Corbyn?
- And finally — well, this is a rhetorical question. Hasn’t England learned its lessons from Thatcher? Why do people vote again and again for those who harm them, just to spite someone who annoys them?