The fact that Joe Biden publicly committed to a woman Vice President came as no huge surprise – the hints have been there all along. But with that public commitment, he knew that speculation would follow about who his pick will be. And it has.
Trying to read the tea leaves and predict where the former VP’s thinking on this might be is a bit of a fool’s errand: We won’t know until we know. What I will attempt to do instead, if you’ll indulge me, is make the case for who I think would be the best choice: Kamala Harris.
The two most important considerations in making a VP pick should be:
- Who is competent, qualified, and ready to be President from day one, and
- Who can help you win the election without hurting our chances of flipping the Senate.
Both of those criteria immediately narrow down the field quite a bit. They leave out people like Stacey Abrams, who do not have the national experience necessary to step into an executive role in the federal government. They also leave out people like Elizabeth Warren, whose Senate seat would be immediately filled by a Republican Governor, at least in the short term, and Tammy Baldwin, whose seat in a potentially purple state would be subject to a special election. Some, like Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, have also taken themselves out of the running. “It’s not going to be me”, she told MSNBC.
The first point is much more straightforward than the second one. There are plenty of people who are undoubtedly qualified, intelligent, competent, and experienced enough to lead from day one. In my view, Harris is uniquely qualified because of her vast executive experience and versatile portfolio. I believe experience like this has a heightened importance at a time like this, given the crises we are seeing with the coronavirus, and with issues like immigration and gun violence, among others.
Kamala Harris sworn in as Attorney General of California
Being in the Senate is one thing, but running big offices as an executive is something different altogether. Given all the fires that will need to be put out immediately after Trump is (hopefully) defeated, executive experience is, in my opinion, one of the most important criteria that Biden should consider.
Certainly, however, in picking the VP nominee, the second point becomes crucial in making the necessary distinctions, and ultimately, decisions between the potential candidates who have comparable experience in executive roles. Who can help you win?
This is where the political opinions and interpretations come in. And in voicing these opinions, we should also acknowledge that none of us know for sure.
But in looking at previous elections that Democrats have won, the demographics that have propelled them have been Black voters, white suburban voters (particularly women), and Latino voters. This coalition propelled Obama to his wins, and also helped Democrats flip the House in the 2018 midterms. Turning out that coalition is the key to winning in November.
In many of the analyses that have been written, Kamala Harris has been deemed the person to excite Black voters, Amy Klobuchar the person to bring out the suburban voters in the Midwest, and a Latina like Catherine Cortez Masto the person to help Biden with his potential weakness with Latino voters. I would argue, however, that the person that helps Biden the most across these three demographics, overall, is the junior Senator from California. Here’s why.
1. The Black vote. This may seem obvious or simplistic because Kamala Harris is a Black woman, but her appeal goes beyond just her identity. While Harris is an HBCU graduate who grew up in the Black Baptist Church, she also spent a significant portion of her campaign reaching out specifically to Black voters across the primary states. There is certainly a section of people who dislike her and like to call her a “cop”, but that section is much louder on social media than it is in real life. In addition, that section is overwhelmingly outnumbered by the people she has built connections with and reached out to. An example of this is South Carolina, where Harris built an organization and outreach effort that was the envy of the rest of the field. Outreach to Black voters will be crucial come November, and the worst thing Biden could do is take the Black vote for granted. Harris has the ability to mobilize and excite the base of the party in a way that few other national figures can. And turning out your base is key to winning any election.
2. The suburban vote in the Midwest. Too often this is phrased as the “suburban white vote in the Midwest”, but great news: There are also Black people in the Midwest! Swing states like Ohio and Michigan each have a significant enough Black population to make a huge difference. Turning out those votes should, then, also be seen as a key to winning those states in the Midwest. But what about that white suburban population, particularly suburban white women? First, based on the primary results from states like Michigan, Biden seems to be doing well with those voters already. But as with the Black vote, let’s not take anything for granted. Surely a Midwestern woman like Amy Klobuchar would help Biden bring out those votes, right? Maybe. It’s a compelling argument. But here’s the counter-argument: Will an all-white ticket depress turnout from those Black populations that we absolutely, definitely need? Will cases from Klobuchar’s past as a tough prosecutor, which has barely been vetted at all, hurt the ticket? Also, maybe.
Joe Biden and Amy Klobuchar at a campaign rally in Dallas, Texas
But Kamala Harris not being white should not lead to the conclusion that she can’t also appeal to the white voters in those swing states. Harris was all over the country in 2018, stumping for Congressional and local candidates, and was one of the most requested surrogates across the Midwest. She is an exciting orator, almost unbelievably charismatic in person, and with her pragmatic policy chops and a wave of admiration from grilling Trump’s administration and judicial picks in Senate hearings, she can certainly have a lot of appeal with the white suburban women whose votes we also need. Not to mention, in her elections in California, she has consistently had strong support from this demographic. While people might sometimes have an urge to dismiss electoral wins in California with comments like “it’s a deep blue state, who cares”, we should not forget the fact that California is a very diverse state and therefore, winning elections in California requires support from large coalitions of different demographic groups.
3. The Latino vote. This has been, a bit misleadingly, deemed a weakness for Biden. He lost the Latino vote badly to Bernie Sanders in California and Nevada, but on the other hand, he won it decisively in Florida and tied with Bernie in Arizona, two states that are likely to be in play in November. So the best assessment we can make is probably that he might need some help from his VP in this department, though it’s certainly not as glaring of a weakness as it’s made out to be.
So the question is: Who helps him in this department? The obvious answer might be someone like Catherine Cortez Masto, or the Governor of New Mexico, Michelle Lujan Grisham. And I’m certain they would help him. However, again, as we are looking for the best overall pick, I am less certain that they would have the same appeal with the two groups mentioned above, not least because their national profiles are much smaller (though of course, name ID isn’t everything.) And in terms of Kamala Harris’s appeal with Latino populations, it’s another strong point for her. First, because it would be difficult to consistently win elections in California without strong Latino support, and second, because she has a strong portfolio on issues that are often, though not exclusively, important to the Latino communities across the country, including immigration. Not to mention, she made a big impression with the powerful and largely Latino union in Nevada, the Culinary Union. In addition, even in places like Iowa, which has a small Latino population, her campaign made a concerted effort to reach out to those communities. In an election where no voting bloc is taken for granted, knowing how to do outreach matters.
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To conclude, all of this should be taken with the obvious disclaimer that if Harris does not want to leave the Senate to be VP, she shouldn’t. But she is, in my view, the person who has the most overall appeal across all these three demographics. Some of these arguments may be subjective, and as mentioned, there is no one true answer to the question of who most helps Biden win.
But in the case of Harris, she is enough to the left of Biden to excite voters he might not have obvious appeal with, and to help bring about proggressive policy, but not too far left to alienate the more moderate base of the party. What also plays in her favor is the fact that she has already been rigorously vetted. There won’t be skeletons in her closet. She is a known quantity and has the experience necessary to take over in 2024 (if necessary), and is charismatic and young enough to become a national face for the party for a long time. If Biden is serious about helping to usher in a new generation of national leaders, his running mate will have to be significantly younger than him.
Finally, when you think about a VP nominee’s role in an election, they essentially have two roles. First, they have to be able to make the case for the person they’re running with, and second, they have to be able to strongly go after the opposition, play “attack dog.” The first is not usually a problem for anyone, but some are less comfortable with the second. Kamala Harris will not be. Just ask Brett Kavanaugh or Jeff Sessions.