This will be short and, unfortunately, really unsettling. SFGate is a site operated mainly by the San Francisco Chronicle, San Francisco’s local paper. A current story reports a letter from Newsom to Trump, with yesterday’s date, in which Newsom requests that the USNS Mercy hospital ship be deployed to Los Angeles, to remain until September. It’s the content of one paragraph that really scares me
In the last 24 hours, we had 126 new COVID-19 cases, a 21 percent increase," Newsom wrote. "In some parts of our state, our case rate is doubling every four days. Moreover, we have community acquired transmission in 23 counties with an increase of 44 community acquired infections in 24 hours. We project that roughly 56 percent of our population — 25.5 million people — will be infected with the virus over an eight week period."
In other words for any given Californian, of which I am one, it’s more likely than not I will end up with COVID-19. More than half of the people I’d normally see day to day will get sick. Some will die. I suspect some of the following will seem self-centered but I hope the point will be apparent.
This morning I spoke with my primary care physician whose practice consists heavily of people who, like me, live with HIV. She began practicing in the mid-1980s and told me that this is beginning to remind her very strongly of what things were like for her back then when she interned in what was likely one of the first, if not the first HIV practice in the United States.
I’m HIV-positive and have been for over half my life. I’m almost 69 years old. I’ve got some of the things people my age deal with such as moderately high blood pressure. There’s mild asthma as well which is generally not a problem. I’ve had ulcerative colitis since I was a child. And I have Stage 4 kidney disease, the result unfortunately of a couple of HIV medications which caused damage to my kidneys so I have about 45% kidney function. Apart from the kidney issue which isn’t directly treatable and my increasing age for which there is certainly no acceptable treatment, my conditions are pretty well-controlled through medications. I asked her if the fact they’re controlled made a difference; she said it did as that essentially limits their importance as risk factors. She noted that on a day-to-day basis having any of these conditions doesn’t mean I’m more likely to contract COVID-19.
However if I do catch it it will be worse for me. Each of those conditions would play apart. She didn’t say this but I gather the kidneys could be the biggest problem since the stress of coping with COVID-19 seems to impact kidneys as well as lungs. It’s possible my immune system could begin to deteriorate especially if I begin having difficulty taking medications. Ditto the colitis and the blood pressure.
If there’s more than a fifty-fifty chance of me contracting COVID-19 I’m pretty sure that there’s more than a 3% chance of me dying from it. How much higher I don’t really have any idea. I assume it’s less than 50%.
My mother is 94 years old and in very good health, apart, once again, from moderate high blood pressure for which she’s on medication. She lives in a retirement community—independent, not assisted living. She lives in a condo that basically looks like any other suburban low-rise apartment development. I very much hope the management of her community is limiting if not prohibiting outside visitors. I don’t think I could safely go to see her, for her sake and for mine. My sister died ten years ago after a seven-year battle with ovarian cancer. When my sister passed away my mother made me promise not to die before her because she couldn’t bear to lose her other child. I don’t want to let my mother down.
I’m not putting this out for people to feel sorry for me but to note there are many, many people who are in my situation to one extent or another and many more like my partner who likely would be okay if he got sick but would certainly be gravely affected if I were to get sick and would obviously be affected even more were I to pass away (or even to become permanently disabled).
To say I’m scared is no exaggeration. I’m scared. And I’m angry at the current so-called administration whose denial for the past three months is directly responsible for the situation we currently find ourselves in.
I hope Newsom is wrong and that the measures we’re taking in the Bay Area—now spreading elsewhere as LA begins a shelter-in-place order at midnight tonight—will result in a far less dire outcome for us in California and for every other place in the United States.
(Wish I knew how to embed a timestamp in an update as I’ve seen in others’ posts; it’s after 10 pm PDT as I type this addendum.)
I want to thank everyone for their feedback even if not all of it was totally approving. Publishing in this community can be daunting. There are sharp minds and people with strong opinions. I respect that even if it unsettles me.
As by now everyone knows the local shelter-in-place orders have been superseded by Newsom’s statewide order which takes effect at midnight local time.