I started trying to write about the exponential function and got side tracked reading about Leonard Euler and John Napier...and realized that I was delving into high level math very quickly.
So I’ll keep this simpler, to help the less mathematically inclined to grasp consequence of this mathematical function based on a little known natural constant..called by many names...e (lower case and italicized)...the Natural Number…Euler’s Constant (although Lenny has too many things named after him, so this is not that common – he deserves a diary of his own). It is a number that shows up throughout mathematics, it is approximately equal to 2.72.
I wax mathematical...back to the topic!
We’re going to look at doubling times, using real data from several states. The concept of how many days it takes for something to double is easy for anyone to visualize. Saying a function has a slope proportional to it’s value means the same thing to me. To most of you it’s rightly gibberish.
So after a week or so tracking the numbers nationally, and trying to model the national growth, I’ve decided that the situation has evolved to the point where regional differences are starting to be more important than the overall national picture.
I will compare the 5 day average doubling rate for several states, for two adjacent time periods: the last 5 days (3/16 through 3/20), and the previous 5 day period (3/11 through 3/16).
State |
3/16-3/20 |
3/11-3/15 |
FL |
2.28 |
1.84 |
NY |
1.28 |
2.24 |
CA |
3.53 |
2.85 |
WA |
4.65 |
4.01 |
IL |
1.61 |
2.15 |
TX |
1.85 |
2.29 |
If anyone wants to see the actual numbers, I’ll be glad to post them. I’m relying on 1point3acres.com for the raw numbers. They seem to be on top of things, trying to keep track of possible duplicates that come out of the news reports (they also link to all the news reports they are drawing their data from). But they allow you to drill down to each state so that nerds like me can tabulate things like this…
So the bottom line –the growth rate (of course based on the available data, which stinks,but such is life in the data sciences) in FL, WA, and CA is actually slowing. Not surprising NY is having a frightening speeding up –obviously this is a result of more testing in that region, but I contend it’s also an increase in the rate of spread.
IL and TX concern me– they are on a currently fast trajectory, appear to be speeding up, and I’m not sure that there has been a whole lot of tests either place. Well, 1.3 acres has testing data for the states, so here are the approximate numbers of tests in each state...
WA- ~22K
NY- ~25K
CA- ~11K
FL- ~6K
IL- ~4K
TX- ~5K
For me here in FL, this is a little good news. We’re obviously not testing enough,the state government is paralyzed (the county sent out the social distancing messages to us yesterday), but the infection rates seems to be slowing.
IL and TX look to be time bombs...NY is facing the healthcare system crash we’ve seen in Italy and China (and probably happened in Iran, also). CA and WA are managing to slow things down quite a bit...